Hammarby vs Malmö FF Prediction, Preview and Stats

Sweden flag 2026 Allsvenskan, Sweden
Tele2 Arena Sun, 17 May - 12:00 PM
Allsvenskan
Hammarby HAM
4 Winner 1
Malmö FF MAL
Full Time Sun, 17 May 12:00 PM
Round 8 Regular Season
Nahir Besara - 44', 29', 13' (P)
Goal
|
Goal

CONTEXT

Hammarby hosted Malmö FF in a match that concluded with a 4-1 victory for the home side. The first half ended 3-1, setting a strong platform for Hammarby who maintained control throughout. Expected goals favored Hammarby at 3.87 compared to 1.36 for Malmö FF, reflecting the final outcome accurately. Possession was nearly even with Hammarby at 51 percent and Malmö FF at 49 percent. No red cards were issued to either team during the contest. The result aligned with pre-match expectations for the stronger side and showed consistency between performance metrics and the scoreline. Hammarby demonstrated effective finishing that matched their underlying numbers.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Hammarby showed a significant deviation of 33.8 percent from pre-match projections.
  • Efficiency shift: Hammarby efficiency remained in line with expected performance levels.
  • xG alignment: The 4-1 result was consistent with the xG values of 3.87 to 1.36.
  • Market alignment: The outcome matched pre-match market expectations for the stronger team.
  • xG expectations: Hammarby exceeded xG expectations while Malmö FF fell short of theirs.
  • Event impact: The halftime score of 3-1 shaped the second half approach for both sides.
  • Red card distortion: No red cards occurred so the match proceeded without numerical imbalance.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

O. Johnson

Sweden 25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

S. Robertsson

2nd Assistant

Sweden

M. Al Hakim

4th Official

Sweden

S. Kristensson

1st Assistant

Sweden

League averages

Allsvenskan Based on last 100 matches

Fouls / match 20.61
Yellow cards / match 3
Red cards / match 0.05
Penalties / match 0.18
Hammarby K. Karlsson
K. Karlsson
VS
Malmö FF M. Ramírez
M. Ramírez
2
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.43
1.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
IFK Göteborg Rank: 55 W
Västerås SK Rank: 48 W
Djurgården Rank: 64 D
Halmstad Rank: 45 D
Örgryte Rank: 41 W
Sirius Rank: 63 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Häcken Rank: 59 L
Mjällby Rank: 69 L
AIK Rank: 57 W
Sirius Rank: 63 L
Djurgården Rank: 66 W
GAIS Rank: 59 W
10
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
10 - 8 - 14
14

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Hammarby
66.19%
Draw
19.47%
Away Malmö FF
14.33%

Movement

Changes since opening
Hammarby
-27.87%
Draw
+14.95%
Malmö FF
+12.91%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
69.5
61.73
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Hammarby
Malmö FF
Power Score
69.5
61.73
League Position
2
8
Global Rank
217
421

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Hammarby — Opponent-weighted form score
Malmö FF — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Hammarby Malmö FF

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Hammarby

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Malmö FF

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Hammarby ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Malmö FF
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
59.31
22.96
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
22.96
59.31
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Hammarby +3.76 Efficiency Index
vs
Malmö FF -3.76 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Hammarby
Malmö FF
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Hammarby
vs
Malmö FF
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Hammarby Malmö FF
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
1.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Hammarby Malmö FF
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 1.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
Hammarby
Malmö FF
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Hammarby
vs
Malmö FF
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Hammarby Malmö FF
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Hammarby 0.62
Malmö FF 0.40
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Hammarby Malmö FF
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Hammarby 0.04
Malmö FF 0.09
Hammarby
Malmö FF
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • HAM had peak pressure around 57'.
  • HAM started the game with stronger pressure.
HAM Pressure MAL Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: HAM reached the top pressure at 57' (77.27).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 32 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Hammarby HAM Home
32 matches
Malmö FF MAL Away
Match Record
10
Wins
14
8
Draws
8
14
Losses
10
Goals
44
Goals Scored
60
60
Goals Conceded
44
-16
Goal Difference
+16

Data last updated: 2026-05-18T08:59:19+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-4-2

General Information

Date & Time :
May 17, 2026, 12:00 PM
Competition :
2026 Allsvenskan, Sweden · Round 8 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Tele2 Arena
Capacity :
32000
Attendance :
25793
Pitch Surface :
Artificial turf
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Oscar Johnson
Sebastian Robertsson
Mohammed Al Hakim
Simon Kristensson

Statistics

Possession
HAM
52%
MAL
48%

Top Statistics

4 Goals 1
7 Big Chances Created 1
5 Shots 5
45 Dangerous attacks 25
51 Possession 49
10 Corners 3
15 Free kicks 13
0 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

2 Assists 1
18 Goal Attempts 7
39 Ball Safe 50
3 Goal Kicks 17
36 Successful Dribbles Percentage 43
14 Throwins 15
11 Dribble Attempts 14
4 Successful Dribbles 6
1 Penalties 0
5 Substitutions 5
2 Hit Woodwork 0

Attacking

5 Big Chances Missed 0
79 Attacks 64

Possession

62 Successful Long Passes Percentage 45
423 Successful Passes 383
88 Successful Passes Percentage 82
37 Long Passes 77
480 Passes 469
23 Successful Long Passes 35
21 Key Passes 8

Defensive

53 Duels Won 38
19 Tackles 13
16 Interceptions 8
2 Saves 8

Build-up

17 Total Crosses 10
5 Accurate Crosses 3

Discipline

13 Fouls 16
3 Offsides 0

Lineup

Referee : Oscar Johnson

Starting XI ▼

1
Warner Hahn
Warner Hahn Goalkeeper
6.51
2
Hampus Skoglund
Hampus Skoglund Defender
7.48
3
Frederik Winther
Frederik Winther Defender
6.93
4
Victor Eriksson
Victor Eriksson Defender
7.44
16
Noah Persson
Noah Persson Defender
7.2
6
Ibrahima Fofana
Ibrahima Fofana
Defender70'
6.82
5
Tesfaldet Tekie
Tesfaldet Tekie Midfielder
7.24
11
Oscar Johansson Schellhas
Oscar Johansson Schellhas
Midfielder62'
6.53
8
Markus Karlsson
Markus Karlsson Midfielder
6.92
20
Nahir Besara
Nahir Besara (C) Midfielder
3
10
26
Montader Madjed
Montader Madjed Midfielder
7.22
15
Oliver Jordan Hagen
Oliver Jordan Hagen
Attacker81'
6.44
28
Frank Junior Adjei
Frank Junior Adjei Midfielder
7.55
9
Victor Lind
Victor Lind
Attacker69'
7.46
7
Paulos Abraham
Paulos Abraham Attacker
7.38
29
Elohim Kaboré
Elohim Kaboré
Attacker62'
6.52
Referee : Oscar Johnson

Starting XI ▼

50
William Nieroth Lundgren
William Nieroth Lundgren Goalkeeper
7.25
2
Johan Karlsson
Johan Karlsson Defender
5.89
17
Jens Stryger Larsen
Jens Stryger Larsen
Defender74'
6.39
5
Andrej Djuric
Andrej Djuric Defender
5.86
19
Colin Rösler
Colin Rösler Defender
6.2
25
Busanello
Busanello Defender
6.63
24
Oscar Sjöstrand
Oscar Sjöstrand Midfielder
6.16
23
N. Åstrand John
N. Åstrand John
Defender74'
6.46
29
Sead Haksabanovic
Sead Haksabanovic (C) Midfielder
6.42
6
Yanis Karabelyov
Yanis Karabelyov
Midfielder81'
6.59
40
Kenan Busuladzic
Kenan Busuladzic Midfielder
6.99
37
Adrian Skogmar
Adrian Skogmar
Midfielder59'
6.64
47
Theodor Lundbergh
Theodor Lundbergh Midfielder
6.87
20
Erik Botheim
Erik Botheim Attacker
7.14
32
Daníel Gudjohnsen
Daníel Gudjohnsen Attacker
6.7
11
Emmanuel Ekong
Emmanuel Ekong
Midfielder59'
6.13

Events

2ND-HALF
83'
Event
Busanello
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
Event
Oliver Jordan Hagen → Montader Madjed
9th Substitution
81'
81'
Event
Yanis Karabelyov → Sead Haksabanovic
10th Substitution
74'
Event
Jens Stryger Larsen → Johan Karlsson
8th Substitution
74'
Event
N. Åstrand John → Oscar Sjöstrand
7th Substitution
Event
Victor Lind
Right foot shot / 4th Goal
73'
Event
Ibrahima Fofana → Noah Persson
6th Substitution
70'
Event
Victor Lind → Frank Junior Adjei
5th Substitution
69'
Event
Elohim Kaboré → Paulos Abraham
4th Substitution
62'
Event
Oscar Johansson Schellhas → Tesfaldet Tekie
3rd Substitution
62'
59'
Event
Emmanuel Ekong → Daníel Gudjohnsen
1st Substitution
59'
Event
Adrian Skogmar → Kenan Busuladzic
2nd Substitution
1ST-HALF
Event
Nahir Besara
Header / 3rd Goal
44'
38'
Event
Kenan Busuladzic
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
Event
Nahir Besara
Left foot shot / 1st Goal
29'
Event
Nahir Besara
Right foot shot / 1st Penalty
13'
12'
Event
Andrej Djuric
Foul / 1st Yellowcard

Match Commentary

90
Attempt Attempt
Nahir Besara's right-footed shot is saved.
90
Attempt Attempt
Oliver Hagen takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
90
Attempt Attempt
Moise Kabore takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
90
Attempt Attempt
Oliver Hagen's left-footed shot is saved.
90
Attempt Attempt
Oliver Hagen's left-footed shot is saved.
87
Attempt Attempt
Moise Kabore takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
81
Substitution Substitution
Oliver Hagen is substituted for Montader Madjed.
81
Update Update
Yanis Karabelyov replaces Sead Haksabanovic.
76
Attempt Attempt
Sead Haksabanovic takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
74
Update Update
Noah Astrand is on, and Oscar Sjostrand is off.
74
Update Update
Jens Stryger Larsen is on, and Johan Karlsson is off.
73
Attempt Attempt
Victor Lind takes a shot with his right foot and scores.
69
Update Update
Victor Lind is on, and Frank Junior Adjei is off.
69
Attempt Attempt
Montader Madjed takes a left-footed shot but misses.
68
Attempt Attempt
Sead Haksabanovic takes a left-footed shot but misses.
68
Attempt Attempt
Sead Haksabanovic takes a left-footed shot but misses.
67
Attempt Attempt
Gabriel Dal Toe Busanello takes a left-footed shot, but it is blocked.
66
Attempt Attempt
Emmanuel Ekong takes a left-footed shot, but it is blocked.
66
Attempt Attempt
Montader Madjed takes a right-footed shot that hits the post.
62
Update Update
Oscar Johansson is on, and Tesfaldet Tekie is off.
62
Update Update
Moise Kabore comes on for Paulos Abraham.
59
Attempt Attempt
Montader Madjed takes a left-footed shot, but it is saved.
58
Update Update
Emmanuel Ekong is on, and Daniel Tristan Gudjohnsen is off.
58
Update Update
Adrian Skogmar replaces Kenan Busuladzic.
56
Attempt Attempt
Nahir Besara takes a right-footed shot but misses.
56
Attempt Attempt
Nahir Besara takes a right-footed shot but misses.
53
Attempt Attempt
Nahir Besara takes a right-footed shot but misses.
51
Attempt Attempt
Paulos Abraham's right-footed shot is blocked.
51
Attempt Attempt
Nahir Besara takes a right-footed shot but misses.
49
Attempt Attempt
Tesfaldet Tekie takes a right-footed shot but misses.
44
Update Update
Nahir Besara scores with a header.
44
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Nahir Besara scores, making it 3-1.
44
Attempt Attempt
Shot by Tesfaldet Tekie with his right foot misses the target.
44
Update Update
Nahir Besara scores with a header.
43
Attempt Attempt
Montader Madjed takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
41
Attempt Attempt
Nahir Besara takes a right-footed shot but misses.
38
Attempt Attempt
Kenan Busuladzic takes a shot with his right foot and scores.
36
Attempt Attempt
Noah Persson takes a right-footed shot but misses.
34
Attempt Attempt
Frank Junior Adjei takes a right-footed shot but misses.
32
Attempt Attempt
Montader Madjed takes a left-footed shot but misses.
31
Attempt Attempt
Oscar Sjostrand takes a left-footed shot but misses.
29
Attempt Attempt
Nahir Besara takes a shot with his left foot and scores.
29
Attempt Attempt
Oscar Sjostrand takes a left-footed shot, but it is blocked.
17
Attempt Attempt
Oscar Sjostrand takes a left-footed shot, but it's blocked.
16
Attempt Attempt
Markus Karlsson takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
13
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal in the penalty shootout! Nahir Besara scores, making it 1-0.
13
Attempt Attempt
Nahir Besara scores with a right-footed shot.
8
Attempt Attempt
Nahir Besara takes a right-footed shot but misses.
4
Attempt Attempt
Oscar Sjostrand takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.

CONCLUSION

Hammarby secured a clear 4-1 win over Malmö FF through consistent execution of their game plan. The home team built a 3-1 lead by halftime and added one more goal after the break while limiting clear opportunities for the visitors. Underlying metrics supported the result with Hammarby generating 3.87 expected goals against 1.36 for Malmö FF. Possession remained balanced and neither side received a red card which kept the contest at eleven versus eleven throughout. The performance reflected the pre-match assessment of Hammarby as the stronger side and produced an outcome aligned with those indicators. Malmö FF struggled to create sustained pressure and finished with lower efficiency on their limited chances.

Hammarby vs Malmö FF preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

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Daniels Zorge

Daniels Zorge covers football fixtures with a focus on tactical matchups, playing styles, and key details that shape each game.