Odense BK vs Vejle Boldklub Prediction, Preview and Stats

Denmark flag 2025/2026 Superliga, Denmark
Nature Energy Park Sun, 17 May - 12:00 PM
Superliga
Odense BK ODE
0 Winner 1
Vejle Boldklub Vejle Boldklub
Full Time Sun, 17 May 12:00 PM
Round 10 Relegation Round
|
Goal
Christian Gammelgaard - 5' (P)

CONTEXT

Odense BK hosted Vejle Boldklub in a match that ended with a narrow 0-1 victory for the visitors. Vejle Boldklub scored the only goal of the game before halftime, taking a 0-1 lead into the break. Despite Odense BK controlling 67 percent of the possession throughout the contest, they were unable to find an equalizer. The expected goals figures were closely matched, with Odense BK registering 1.08 and Vejle Boldklub at 1.04. This result represented a significant deviation from pre-match expectations, as Vejle Boldklub outperformed their statistical projections to secure the win. No red cards were shown to players from either side during the ninety minutes. The match showcased how clinical finishing can overcome possession disadvantages in football.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Vejle Boldklub achieved a significant 78 percent deviation by winning away from home.
  • Efficiency shift: The efficiency shift was in line with the away team's performance metrics.
  • xG alignment: Expected goals showed close alignment with 1.08 for Odense BK and 1.04 for Vejle Boldklub.
  • Market alignment: The final result was not aligned with market expectations.
  • xG expectations: The outcome was inconsistent with the closely matched xG values.
  • Event impact: The first half goal proved decisive in securing the 0-1 victory for Vejle.
  • Red card distortion: No red cards were issued, resulting in no distortion to the match dynamics.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

J. Hansen

Denmark 25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

J. Dahl

1st Assistant

Denmark

O. Kronlykke

2nd Assistant

Denmark

F. Iriskic

4th Official

League averages

Superliga Based on last 100 matches

Fouls / match 23.02
Yellow cards / match 3.4
Red cards / match 0.13
Penalties / match 0.27
Odense BK A. Zorniger
A. Zorniger
VS
Vejle Boldklub C. Nørgaard
C. Nørgaard
1.38
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
0.69
1.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Randers FC Rank: 59 D
Silkeborg IF Rank: 60 L
Fredericia Rank: 53 W
FC København Rank: 71 L
Randers FC Rank: 57 W
Silkeborg IF Rank: 58 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Fredericia Rank: 53 W
Randers FC Rank: 58 L
FC København Rank: 69 L
Silkeborg IF Rank: 58 L
FC København Rank: 71 L
Fredericia Rank: 53 D
12
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
12 - 2 - 9
9

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Odense BK
55.67%
Draw
22.33%
Away Vejle Boldklub
22%

Movement

Changes since opening
Odense BK
+55.43%
Draw
+14.94%
Vejle Boldklub
-70.37%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
47.94
51.15
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Odense BK
Vejle Boldklub
Power Score
47.94
51.15
League Position
8
12
Global Rank
573
751

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Odense BK — Opponent-weighted form score
Vejle Boldklub — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Odense BK Vejle Boldklub

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Odense BK

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Vejle Boldklub

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Odense BK ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Vejle Boldklub
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
31.57
18.33
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
18.33
31.57
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Odense BK +1.26 Efficiency Index
vs
Vejle Boldklub -1.26 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Odense BK
Vejle Boldklub
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Odense BK
vs
Vejle Boldklub
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Odense BK Vejle Boldklub
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 1.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Odense BK Vejle Boldklub
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
1.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
Odense BK
Vejle Boldklub
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Odense BK
vs
Vejle Boldklub
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Odense BK Vejle Boldklub
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Odense BK 0.20
Vejle Boldklub 0.24
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Odense BK Vejle Boldklub
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Odense BK 0.05
Vejle Boldklub 0.00
Odense BK
Vejle Boldklub
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • ODE had peak pressure around 96'.
  • ODE started the game with stronger pressure.
ODE Pressure Vejle Boldklub Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: ODE reached the top pressure at 96' (83.19).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 23 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Odense BK ODE Home
23 matches
Vejle Boldklub Vejle Boldklub Away
Match Record
12
Wins
9
2
Draws
2
9
Losses
12
Goals
40
Goals Scored
27
27
Goals Conceded
40
+13
Goal Difference
-13
Expected Goals
1.33
xG
0.52
0.52
xGA
1.33

Data last updated: 2026-05-18T08:59:27+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-3-1-2
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
T. Sander
Denmark
30 T. Sander
L. Owusu
Substitution
Netherlands
20 L. Owusu
Y. Bojang
Gambia
24 Y. Bojang
J. Berthel Askou Harvey
Substitution
Denmark
13 J. Berthel Askou Harvey
M. McCoy
Denmark
15 M. McCoy
J. Arp
Substitution
Germany
7 J. Arp
R. Falk Jensen
Denmark
8 (C) R. Falk Jensen
G. Madsen
Substitution
Denmark
14 G. Madsen
A. Suhonen
Finland
10 A. Suhonen
N. Ganaus
Germany
17 N. Ganaus
J. Niemiec
Substitution
Germany
11 J. Niemiec
Pitch
T. Haahr Jakobsen
Denmark
24 T. Haahr Jakobsen
C. Sørensen
Denmark
3 C. Sørensen
V. Jensen
Denmark
5 V. Jensen
H. Gitz Christensen
Denmark
31 H. Gitz Christensen
L. Flø Borregaard
Denmark
23 L. Flø Borregaard
M. Vestergård
Denmark
6 M. Vestergård
T. Gundelund
Denmark
2 (C) T. Gundelund
A. Hjulsager
Substitution
Denmark
17 A. Hjulsager
M. Duelund
Substitution
Denmark
10 M. Duelund
C. Gammelgaard
Substitution
Denmark
7 C. Gammelgaard
J. Duin
Substitution
Netherlands
9 J. Duin

General Information

Date & Time :
May 17, 2026, 12:00 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Superliga, Denmark · Round 10 · Relegation Round
Stadium :
Nature Energy Park
Capacity :
15790
Attendance :
11136
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Jonas Hansen
Jesper Dahl
Ole Kronlykke
F. Iriskic

Statistics

Possession
ODE
64%
Vejle Boldklub
36%

Top Statistics

0 Goals 1
1 Big Chances Created 1
5 Shots 2
83 Dangerous attacks 21
67 Possession 33
8 Corners 4
10 Free kicks 12
1 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

2 Hit Woodwork 0
10 Goal Attempts 3
66 Ball Safe 83
5 Substitutions 4
6 Successful Dribbles 6
43 Successful Dribbles Percentage 46
6 Goal Kicks 12
29 Throwins 12
0 Penalties 1
14 Dribble Attempts 13

Attacking

1 Big Chances Missed 0
2 Counter Attacks 7
122 Attacks 45

Possession

89 Successful Passes Percentage 75
637 Passes 319
570 Successful Passes 239
31 Successful Long Passes 24
49 Long Passes 62
63 Successful Long Passes Percentage 39
10 Key Passes 1

Defensive

0 Saves 6
40 Duels Won 51
11 Tackles 14
7 Interceptions 9

Build-up

41 Total Crosses 12
10 Accurate Crosses 2

Discipline

13 Fouls 10
1 Offsides 2

Lineup

Referee : Jonas Hansen

Starting XI ▼

30
Theo Sander
Theo Sander Goalkeeper
6.13
13
Julius Berthel Askou
Julius Berthel Askou Defender
6.92
4
Bjørn Paulsen
Bjørn Paulsen
Defender60'
6.65
15
Marcus McCoy
Marcus McCoy Defender
7.44
20
Leeroy Owusu
Leeroy Owusu Defender
6.79
26
Lasse Legolas
Lasse Legolas
Attacker73'
6.67
24
Yaya Bojang
Yaya Bojang Defender
6.83
7
Fiete Arp
Fiete Arp Midfielder
7.22
19
Tom Trybull
Tom Trybull
Midfielder88'
8
Rasmus Falk
Rasmus Falk (C) Midfielder
7.5
10
Anssi Suhonen
Anssi Suhonen Midfielder
7.2
14
Gustav Grubbe
Gustav Grubbe Midfielder
6.48
23
William Martin
William Martin
Midfielder46'
6.7
11
Jona Niemiec
Jona Niemiec Attacker
6.31
3
Adam Sørensen
Adam Sørensen
Defender60'
6.97
17
Noah Ganaus
Noah Ganaus Attacker
6.49
Referee : Jonas Hansen

Starting XI ▼

24
Tobias Haahr
Tobias Haahr Goalkeeper
7.93
3
Christian Sørensen
Christian Sørensen Defender
7.01
5
Valdemar Lund
Valdemar Lund Defender
8
23
Lasse Flø
Lasse Flø Defender
7.18
31
Hjalte Gitz Christensen
Hjalte Gitz Christensen Defender
7.44
2
Thomas Gundelund
Thomas Gundelund (C) Midfielder
7.12
6
Mike Vestergård
Mike Vestergård Midfielder
7.22
7
Christian Gammelgaard
Christian Gammelgaard Midfielder
6.9
25
Nicolas Alexander Gammelgaard Grøndal
Nicolas Alexander Gammelgaard Grøndal
Attacker79'
6.4
10
Mikkel Duelund
Mikkel Duelund Midfielder
6.56
20
Abdoulaye Camara
Abdoulaye Camara
Attacker73'
6.5
17
Andrew Hjulsager
Andrew Hjulsager Midfielder
6.4
32
Bismark Edjeodji
Bismark Edjeodji
Midfielder62'
6.47
9
Jelle Duin
Jelle Duin Attacker
6.64
16
T. Bach
T. Bach
Midfielder62'
6.82

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Tom Trybull → Fiete Arp
9th Substitution
88'
79'
Event
Nicolas Alexander Gammelgaard Grøndal → Christian Gammelgaard
8th Substitution
Event
Lasse Legolas → Leeroy Owusu
7th Substitution
73'
73'
Event
Abdoulaye Camara → Mikkel Duelund
6th Substitution
64'
Event
Valdemar Lund
Goal disallowed
62'
Event
Bismark Edjeodji → Andrew Hjulsager
5th Substitution
62'
Event
T. Bach → Jelle Duin
4th Substitution
Event
Bjørn Paulsen → Julius Berthel Askou
2nd Substitution
60'
Event
Adam Sørensen → Jona Niemiec
3rd Substitution
60'
Event
William Martin → Gustav Grubbe
1st Substitution
46'
1ST-HALF
34'
Event
Lasse Flø
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
16'
Event
Andrew Hjulsager
Off the ball foul / 2nd Yellowcard
Event
Theo Sander
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
5'
5'
Event
Christian Gammelgaard
Left foot shot / 1st Penalty
4'
Event
Andrew Hjulsager
Penalty awarded

Match Commentary

90
Attempt Attempt
Marcus McCoy takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
90
Attempt Attempt
Tobias Bach takes a left-footed shot but misses.
90
Attempt Attempt
Nicolas Gammelgaard takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
90
Attempt Attempt
Tobias Bach takes a left-footed shot, but it misses the target.
88
Update Update
Tom Trybull is on, and Fiete Arp is off.
81
Attempt Attempt
Anssi Suhonen takes a right-footed shot, but it is saved.
81
Attempt Attempt
Fiete Arp takes a right-footed shot that hits the post.
79
Substitution Substitution
Nicolas Gammelgaard is substituted for Christian Gammelgaard.
78
Attempt Attempt
Fiete Arp takes a right-footed shot but misses.
73
Update Update
Lasse Legolas is on, and Leeroy Owusu is off.
73
Update Update
Abdoulaye Camara comes on for Mikkel Duelund.
73
Update Update
Bjorn Paulsen takes a header, but it goes wide.
71
Attempt Attempt
Noah Ganaus has a shot with his right foot, but it is blocked.
68
Attempt Attempt
William Martin takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
68
Attempt Attempt
Marcus McCoy takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
63
Update Update
Bismark Edjeodji is on, and Andrew Hjulsager is off.
62
Update Update
Tobias Bach is on, and Jelle Duin is off.
61
Attempt Attempt
Andrew Hjulsager takes a shot with his head and scores a goal.
61
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Andrew Hjulsager scores, making it 0-2.
60
Update Update
Bjorn Paulsen is on, and Julius Askou is off.
60
Update Update
Bjorn Paulsen is on, and Julius Askou is off.
60
Update Update
Bjorn Paulsen is on, and Julius Askou is off.
60
Attempt Attempt
Anssi Suhonen takes a right-footed shot, but it is saved.
51
Attempt Attempt
Mikkel Duelund takes a right-footed shot but misses.
46
Substitution Substitution
William Martin is substituted for Gustav Madsen.
45
Attempt Attempt
Fiete Arp takes a right-footed shot, but it is saved.
43
Attempt Attempt
Anssi Suhonen takes a header shot but misses.
41
Attempt Attempt
Noah Ganaus takes a left-footed shot, but it is blocked.
41
Attempt Attempt
Anssi Suhonen takes a shot with his head but misses.
30
Attempt Attempt
Christian Sorensen takes a left-footed shot but misses.
9
Attempt Attempt
Jonah Niemiec attempts a header but misses the shot.
5
Update Update
Valdemar Jensen takes a header, but it goes wide.
5
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal in the penalty shootout! Christian Gammelgaard scores, making it 0-1.
4
Update Update
Penalty awarded after a VAR decision for Valdemar Jensen.

CONCLUSION

Final score detail: Odense BK 0-1 Vejle Boldklub. Structural assessment: Vejle Boldklub exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.

Odense BK vs Vejle Boldklub preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

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Daniels Zorge

Daniels Zorge covers football fixtures with a focus on tactical matchups, playing styles, and key details that shape each game.