Heracles Almelo vs FC Groningen Prediction, Preview and Stats

Netherlands flag 2025/2026 Eredivisie, Netherlands
Asito Stadion Sun, 17 May - 12:30 PM
Eredivisie
Heracles Almelo HEA
1 Winner 2
FC Groningen GRO
Full Time Sun, 17 May 12:30 PM
Round 34 Regular Season
Tristan van Gilst - 17'
Goal
|
Goal
Tygo Land - 56'
David van der Werff - 3'

CONTEXT

Heracles Almelo welcomed FC Groningen to their home ground for a league encounter that finished 1-2 in favor of the visitors. The sides were level at halftime after exchanging goals in an open first period. Heracles controlled 53 percent of possession overall yet created fewer high-quality opportunities according to underlying metrics. FC Groningen posted 1.7 expected goals to the hosts 0.91 and converted their superiority into a second-half winner. The stronger team maintained composure after the break and limited clear chances for the opposition. No dismissals occurred to alter the contest dynamics. The result reflected the away side's ability to capitalize on their chance creation while Heracles struggled to match output with quality.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: FC Groningen produced a significant 40.9 percent deviation from pre-match projections in their favor.
  • Efficiency shift: Team efficiency remained in line with underlying performance indicators across both halves.
  • xG alignment: The 1-2 outcome proved consistent with the expected goals differential of minus 0.79.
  • Market alignment: The final result stayed aligned with available projections for the stronger side.
  • xG expectations: FC Groningen exceeded their 1.7 xG while Heracles fell short of their 0.91 xG total.
  • Event impact: The second-half goal proved decisive in shifting momentum toward the eventual winners.
  • Red card distortion: Absence of red cards ensured no structural changes to team shapes or tactics.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

R. Martens

Netherlands 25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

D. Frijn

1st Assistant

Netherlands

J. de Koning

2nd Assistant

Netherlands

N. Boel

4th Official

Netherlands

League averages

Eredivisie Based on last 100 matches

Fouls / match 20.58
Yellow cards / match 2.67
Red cards / match 0.12
Penalties / match 0.12
Heracles Almelo E. Faber
E. Faber
VS
FC Groningen D. Lukkien
D. Lukkien
0.48
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.24
0.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Telstar Rank: 63 L
PEC Zwolle Rank: 63 L
FC Volendam Rank: 59 L
Ajax Rank: 75 L
SC Heerenveen Rank: 69 L
Excelsior Rank: 62 D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
NEC Nijmegen Rank: 74 W
Excelsior Rank: 61 L
Feyenoord Rank: 74 L
Go Ahead Eagles Rank: 66 D
Telstar Rank: 64 W
AZ Rank: 75 W
16
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
16 - 6 - 18
18

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Heracles Almelo
17.98%
Draw
22.92%
Away FC Groningen
59.1%

Movement

Changes since opening
Heracles Almelo
+17.71%
Draw
+16.51%
FC Groningen
-34.22%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
53.79
66.75
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Heracles Almelo
FC Groningen
Power Score
53.79
66.75
League Position
18
9
Global Rank
665
279

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Heracles Almelo — Opponent-weighted form score
FC Groningen — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Heracles Almelo FC Groningen

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Heracles Almelo

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

FC Groningen

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Heracles Almelo ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy FC Groningen
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
24.72
37.34
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
37.34
24.72
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Heracles Almelo -1.22 Efficiency Index
vs
FC Groningen +1.22 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Heracles Almelo
FC Groningen
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Heracles Almelo
vs
FC Groningen
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Heracles Almelo FC Groningen
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Heracles Almelo FC Groningen
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
Heracles Almelo
FC Groningen
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Heracles Almelo
vs
FC Groningen
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Heracles Almelo FC Groningen
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Heracles Almelo 0.26
FC Groningen 0.52
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Heracles Almelo FC Groningen
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Heracles Almelo 0.06
FC Groningen 0.02
Heracles Almelo
FC Groningen
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • GRO had peak pressure around 47'.
  • HEA started the game with stronger pressure.
HEA Pressure GRO Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: GRO reached the top pressure at 47' (79.60).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 40 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Heracles Almelo HEA Home
40 matches
FC Groningen GRO Away
Match Record
16
Wins
18
6
Draws
6
18
Losses
16
Goals
60
Goals Scored
70
70
Goals Conceded
60
-10
Goal Difference
+10

Data last updated: 2026-05-18T09:01:25+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-4-2
Pitch
T. Jansink
Netherlands
16 T. Jansink
M. Benita
Substitution
Netherlands
2 M. Benita
M. te Wierik
Netherlands
23 M. te Wierik
D. Mirani
Netherlands
4 (C) D. Mirani
D. van der Kust
Suriname
5 D. van der Kust
J. Žambůrek
Substitution
Czech Republic
13 J. Žambůrek
S. Scheperman
Netherlands
32 S. Scheperman
T. van Gilst
Netherlands
17 T. van Gilst
T. Bruns
Substitution
Netherlands
10 T. Bruns
W. Ould-Chikh
Substitution
Netherlands
73 W. Ould-Chikh
M. Engels
Substitution
Germany
8 M. Engels
Pitch
E. Vaessen
Netherlands
1 E. Vaessen
M. Peersman
Belgium
43 M. Peersman
D. Janse
Netherlands
4 D. Janse
T. Blokzijl
Netherlands
3 T. Blokzijl
M. Rente
Germany
5 (C) M. Rente
J. Schreuders
Netherlands
14 J. Schreuders
T. Land
Substitution
Netherlands
18 T. Land
T. de Jonge
Netherlands
8 T. de Jonge
D. van der Werff
Substitution
17 D. van der Werff
T. van Bergen
Substitution
Netherlands
26 T. van Bergen
Y. Taha El Idrissi
Substitution
Morocco
10 Y. Taha El Idrissi

General Information

Date & Time :
May 17, 2026, 12:30 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Eredivisie, Netherlands · Round 34 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Asito Stadion
Capacity :
12500
Attendance :
11311
Pitch Surface :
Artificial turf
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Don Frijn
Jari de Koning
Richard Martens
Niels Boel

Statistics

Possession
HEA
53%
GRO
47%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 2
4 Big Chances Created 1
2 Shots 3
42 Dangerous attacks 31
53 Possession 47
9 Corners 5
5 Free kicks 8
1 Yellow Cards 1

Match Overview

5 Substitutions 4
17 Throwins 22
15 Dribble Attempts 12
52 Ball Safe 50
5 Goal Attempts 12
1 Assists 1
40 Successful Dribbles Percentage 50
6 Successful Dribbles 6
11 Goal Kicks 8
1 Hit Woodwork 0
22 Successful Headers 10

Attacking

3 Big Chances Missed 1
82 Attacks 95

Possession

39 Successful Long Passes 18
77 Successful Passes Percentage 76
9 Key Passes 10
78 Long Passes 52
392 Passes 354
301 Successful Passes 269
50 Successful Long Passes Percentage 35

Defensive

46 Duels Won 35
13 Tackles 11
3 Saves 1
15 Interceptions 11

Build-up

23 Total Crosses 14
7 Accurate Crosses 2

Discipline

3 Offsides 1
8 Fouls 5

Lineup

Referee : Richard Martens

Starting XI ▼

16
Timo Jansink
Timo Jansink Goalkeeper
6.85
2
Mimeirhel Benita
Mimeirhel Benita Defender
6.76
38
Jeppe Wijnreder
Jeppe Wijnreder
Defender85'
6.49
4
Damon Mirani
Damon Mirani (C) Defender
6.72
5
Djevencio van der Kust
Djevencio van der Kust Defender
6.43
23
Mike te Wierik
Mike te Wierik Defender
6.63
10
Thomas Bruns
Thomas Bruns Midfielder
6.67
20
Rhys Bozinovski
Rhys Bozinovski
Midfielder76'
6.34
13
Jan Zamburek
Jan Zamburek Midfielder
6.28
39
Sil Blokhuis
Sil Blokhuis
Midfielder88'
17
Tristan van Gilst
Tristan van Gilst Midfielder
7.2
32
Sem Scheperman
Sem Scheperman Midfielder
6.98
73
Walid Ould-Chikh
Walid Ould-Chikh Midfielder
7.98
41
Tarik Hamamioglu
Tarik Hamamioglu
Attacker76'
6.41
8
Mario Engels
Mario Engels Attacker
6.25
14
Erik Ahlstrand
Erik Ahlstrand
Midfielder75'
6.85
Referee : Richard Martens

Starting XI ▼

1
Etienne Vaessen
Etienne Vaessen Goalkeeper
6.25
3
Thijmen Blokzijl
Thijmen Blokzijl Defender
6.81
4
Dies Janse
Dies Janse Defender
6.9
5
Marco Rente
Marco Rente (C) Defender
6.63
43
Marvin Peersman
Marvin Peersman Defender
7.15
8
Tika de Jonge
Tika de Jonge Midfielder
7.08
14
Jorg Schreuders
Jorg Schreuders Midfielder
6.46
17
David van der Werff
David van der Werff Midfielder
7.32
7
Travis Hernes
Travis Hernes
Midfielder61'
6.45
18
Tygo Land
Tygo Land Midfielder
7.16
27
Rui Mendes
Rui Mendes
Attacker74'
6.49
10
Younes Taha
Younes Taha Attacker
7.14
2
Wouter Prins
Wouter Prins
Defender89'
26
Thom van Bergen
Thom van Bergen Attacker
6.75
44
Jismerai Dillema
Jismerai Dillema
Midfielder89'

Events

2ND-HALF
90'
Event
Travis Hernes
Time wasting / 2nd Yellowcard
89'
Event
Jismerai Dillema → Thom van Bergen
8th Substitution
89'
Event
Wouter Prins → Younes Taha
9th Substitution
Event
Sil Blokhuis → Jan Zamburek
7th Substitution
88'
Event
Jan Zamburek
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
87'
Event
Jeppe Wijnreder → Mimeirhel Benita
6th Substitution
85'
Event
Rhys Bozinovski → Thomas Bruns
4th Substitution
76'
Event
Tarik Hamamioglu → Walid Ould-Chikh
5th Substitution
76'
Event
Erik Ahlstrand → Mario Engels
3rd Substitution
75'
74'
Event
Rui Mendes → Tygo Land
2nd Substitution
61'
Event
Travis Hernes → David van der Werff
1st Substitution
56'
Event
Tygo Land
Right foot shot / 3rd Goal
1ST-HALF
Event
Var
34'
Event
Tristan van Gilst
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
17'
3'
Event
David van der Werff
Right foot shot / 1st Goal

Match Commentary

90
Update Update
Wouter Prins comes on for Younes Taha.
90
Attempt Attempt
Travis Hernes takes a left-footed shot but misses.
90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Travis Hernes receives a yellow card.
90
Attempt Attempt
Sem Scheperman takes a shot with his head, but it's saved.
90
Update Update
Jismerai Dillema comes on for Thom van Bergen.
89
Substitution Substitution
Sil Blokhuis is substituted for Jan Zamburek.
89
Update Update
Wouter Prins comes on for Younes Taha.
87
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Jan Zamburek receives a yellow card.
81
Attempt Attempt
Younes Taha takes a left-footed shot but misses.
76
Update Update
Erik Ahlstrand comes on for Mario Engels.
76
Update Update
Tarik Hamamiogl comes on for Walid Ould Chikh.
76
Update Update
Rhys Bozinovski comes on for Thomas Bruns.
75
Attempt Attempt
Younes Taha takes a left-footed shot but misses.
74
Update Update
Rui Jorge Monteiro Mendes comes on for Tygo Land.
67
Attempt Attempt
Thom van Bergen takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
66
Attempt Attempt
Thom van Bergen takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
66
Attempt Attempt
Walid Ould Chikh takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
64
Attempt Attempt
Thom van Bergen takes a right-footed shot but misses.
61
Update Update
Travis Hernes is on, and David van der Werff is off.
56
Attempt Attempt
Tygo Land takes a shot with his right foot and scores.
56
Attempt Attempt
Thom van Bergen takes a right-footed shot but misses.
52
Attempt Attempt
Mimeirhel Benita takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
51
Attempt Attempt
Younes Taha's left-footed shot is blocked.
47
Attempt Attempt
Sem Scheperman attempts a header but misses the shot.
45
Attempt Attempt
Tika de Jonge takes a right-footed shot but misses.
44
Attempt Attempt
Marvin Peersman takes a left-footed shot but misses.
42
Attempt Attempt
Tika de Jonge takes a left-footed shot, but it is saved.
39
Attempt Attempt
Mario Engels takes a right-footed shot but misses.
27
Attempt Attempt
Damon Mirani takes a header shot but misses.
25
Attempt Attempt
Damon Mirani attempted a header but missed the shot.
17
Attempt Attempt
Younes Taha takes a left-footed shot but misses.
17
Attempt Attempt
Tristan van Gilst takes a shot with his right foot and scores.
10
Attempt Attempt
Younes Taha takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
8
Update Update
Mario Engels takes a header, but it misses the target.
7
Attempt Attempt
Tristan van Gilst takes a right-footed shot but misses.
4
Attempt Attempt
David van der Werff scores with a right-footed shot.
3
Attempt Attempt
Thom van Bergen takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.

CONCLUSION

Final score detail: Heracles Almelo 1-2 FC Groningen. Structural assessment: FC Groningen exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

Heracles Almelo vs FC Groningen preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

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Daniels Zorge

Daniels Zorge covers football fixtures with a focus on tactical matchups, playing styles, and key details that shape each game.