SC Heerenveen vs Ajax Prediction, Preview and Stats

Netherlands flag 2025/2026 Eredivisie, Netherlands
Abe Lenstra Stadion Sun, 17 May - 12:30 PM
Eredivisie
SC Heerenveen HEE
0 – 0
Ajax AJA
Full Time Sun, 17 May 12:30 PM
Round 34 Regular Season

CONTEXT

SC Heerenveen faced Ajax in an intriguing encounter that finished 0-0, with the score remaining level at halftime as well. The home team controlled 53 percent of the possession compared to Ajax's 47 percent. Expected goals favored Heerenveen at 2.48 against 2.07 for the visitors, suggesting they created the better opportunities overall. Despite Ajax being regarded as the stronger side, they were unable to break through the organized defense of their opponents. No red cards were issued during the match, keeping the contest at eleven versus eleven throughout. The significant deviation in performance from Ajax led to a result that was consistent with the xG data but not with initial projections. This goalless draw reflects the tactical battle that unfolded on the pitch and the determination shown by both sides to avoid defeat.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Final score: SC Heerenveen 0-0 Ajax. Ajax showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: The efficiency shift was in line with overall team expectations during the match.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome aligned consistently with the expected goals metrics recorded.
  • Market alignment: The result did not align with pre-match market projections for the stronger side.
  • xG expectations: Heerenveen generated 2.48 expected goals compared to Ajax's 2.07 in the encounter.
  • Event impact: The goalless draw represented the key event shaping the match narrative.
  • Red card distortion: No red cards were issued to either side, resulting in no distortion to the game flow.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

J. Kooij

Netherlands 25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

D. Fikkert

1st Assistant

Netherlands

H. Kucukerbir

2nd Assistant

Netherlands

T. Hardeman

4th Official

Netherlands

League averages

Eredivisie Based on last 100 matches

Fouls / match 20.58
Yellow cards / match 2.67
Red cards / match 0.12
Penalties / match 0.12
SC Heerenveen R. Veldman
R. Veldman
VS
Ajax Ó. García Junyent
Ó. García Junyent
1.71
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.67
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
NAC Breda Rank: 54 L
FC Volendam Rank: 60 W
Fortuna Sittard Rank: 61 W
AZ Rank: 75 L
Heracles Almelo Rank: 54 W
NEC Nijmegen Rank: 74 D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
FC Utrecht Rank: 71 L
PSV Rank: 86 D
NAC Breda Rank: 55 W
Heracles Almelo Rank: 54 W
FC Twente Rank: 76 L
Feyenoord Rank: 76 D
6
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
6 - 6 - 33
33

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home SC Heerenveen
29.64%
Draw
22.96%
Away Ajax
47.39%

Movement

Changes since opening
SC Heerenveen
+24.14%
Draw
-64.36%
Ajax
+40.2%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
68.99
75.45
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
SC Heerenveen
Ajax
Power Score
68.99
75.45
League Position
8
5
Global Rank
227
102

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
SC Heerenveen — Opponent-weighted form score
Ajax — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) SC Heerenveen Ajax

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

SC Heerenveen

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Ajax

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

SC Heerenveen ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Ajax
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
36.70
54.89
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
54.89
36.70
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
SC Heerenveen -1.75 Efficiency Index
vs
Ajax +1.75 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
SC Heerenveen
Ajax
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

SC Heerenveen
vs
Ajax
Created Set-piece attacking threat
SC Heerenveen Ajax
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
SC Heerenveen Ajax
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
SC Heerenveen
Ajax
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
SC Heerenveen
vs
Ajax
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
SC Heerenveen Ajax
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
SC Heerenveen 0.23
Ajax 0.41
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
SC Heerenveen Ajax
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
SC Heerenveen 0.00
Ajax 0.00
SC Heerenveen
Ajax
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • AJA had peak pressure around 41'.
  • HEE started the game with stronger pressure.
HEE Pressure AJA Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: AJA reached the top pressure at 41' (90.56).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 45 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

SC Heerenveen HEE Home
45 matches
Ajax AJA Away
Match Record
6
Wins
33
6
Draws
6
33
Losses
6
Goals
48
Goals Scored
131
131
Goals Conceded
48
-83
Goal Difference
+83

Data last updated: 2026-05-18T09:01:43+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-3-3
Pitch
B. Klaverboer
Netherlands
22 B. Klaverboer
O. Johansen Braude
Norway
45 O. Johansen Braude
S. Kersten
Netherlands
4 S. Kersten
M. Willemsen
Netherlands
3 M. Willemsen
V. Zagaritis
Substitution
Greece
19 V. Zagaritis
M. Linday
Sweden
16 M. Linday
J. van Overeem
Netherlands
6 (C) J. van Overeem
J. Trenskow
Denmark
20 J. Trenskow
R. Meerveld
Substitution
Netherlands
10 R. Meerveld
L. Oyen
Substitution
Belgium
11 L. Oyen
D. Vente
Substitution
Netherlands
9 D. Vente
Pitch
M. Paes
Netherlands
26 M. Paes
L. Rosa
Brazil
2 L. Rosa
Y. Baas
Netherlands
15 Y. Baas
K. Itakura
Japan
4 K. Itakura
A. Gaaei
Denmark
3 A. Gaaei
D. Klaassen
Substitution
Netherlands
18 (C) D. Klaassen
J. Mokio
Belgium
24 J. Mokio
S. Steur
Substitution
Netherlands
48 S. Steur
M. Godts
Substitution
Belgium
11 M. Godts
W. Weghorst
Netherlands
25 W. Weghorst
S. Berghuis
Substitution
Netherlands
23 S. Berghuis

General Information

Date & Time :
May 17, 2026, 12:30 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Eredivisie, Netherlands · Round 34 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Abe Lenstra Stadion
Capacity :
27224
Attendance :
25450
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Joey Kooij
Dyon Fikkert
Halis Murat Kucukerbir
Thomas Hardeman

Statistics

Possession
HEE
52%
AJA
48%

Top Statistics

2 Big Chances Created 0
16 Shots 23
69 Dangerous attacks 56
53 Possession 47
10 Corners 6
8 Free kicks 9
0 Yellow Cards 3

Match Overview

4 Substitutions 4
1 Injuries 0
23 Dribble Attempts 21
43 Successful Dribbles Percentage 24
11 Throwins 11
10 Successful Dribbles 5
10 Successful Headers 13
10 Goal Kicks 9
68 Ball Safe 67
10 Goal Attempts 13
0 Hit Woodwork 1

Attacking

2 Big Chances Missed 0
116 Attacks 105

Possession

13 Key Passes 18
474 Successful Passes 432
26 Successful Long Passes 23
45 Successful Long Passes Percentage 56
561 Passes 500
84 Successful Passes Percentage 86
58 Long Passes 41

Defensive

6 Saves 4
20 Tackles 18
6 Interceptions 5
48 Duels Won 44

Build-up

5 Accurate Crosses 5
28 Total Crosses 23

Discipline

1 Offsides 0
9 Fouls 8

Lineup

Referee : Joey Kooij

Starting XI ▼

22
Bernt Klaverboer
Bernt Klaverboer Goalkeeper
8.49
3
Maas Willemsen
Maas Willemsen Defender
7.21
4
Sam Kersten
Sam Kersten Defender
7.19
19
Vasilios Zagaritis
Vasilios Zagaritis Defender
7.04
28
Hristiyan Petrov
Hristiyan Petrov
Defender75'
6.83
45
Oliver Braude
Oliver Braude Defender
7.41
6
Joris van Overeem
Joris van Overeem (C) Midfielder
7.44
10
Ringo Meerveld
Ringo Meerveld Midfielder
6.66
8
Luuk Brouwers
Luuk Brouwers
Midfielder84'
6.52
11
Luca Oyen
Luca Oyen Midfielder
7
50
Eser Gürbüz
Eser Gürbüz
Attacker84'
6.07
16
Marcus Linday
Marcus Linday Midfielder
7.37
20
Jacob Trenskow
Jacob Trenskow Midfielder
7.04
9
Dylan Vente
Dylan Vente Attacker
7.12
18
Lasse Nordås
Lasse Nordås
Attacker84'
6.59
Referee : Joey Kooij

Starting XI ▼

26
Maarten Paes
Maarten Paes Goalkeeper
7.65
2
Lucas Rosa
Lucas Rosa Defender
6.86
3
Anton Gaaei
Anton Gaaei Defender
7.31
4
Ko Itakura
Ko Itakura Defender
7.95
15
Youri Baas
Youri Baas Defender
6.75
18
Davy Klaassen
Davy Klaassen (C) Midfielder
7.48
6
Youri Regeer
Youri Regeer
Midfielder69'
6.61
24
Jorthy Mokio
Jorthy Mokio Midfielder
7.07
48
Sean Steur
Sean Steur Midfielder
7.64
9
Kasper Dolberg
Kasper Dolberg
Attacker79'
6.64
11
Mika Godts
Mika Godts Attacker
6.59
7
Maher Carrizo
Maher Carrizo
Attacker85'
6.76
23
Steven Berghuis
Steven Berghuis Attacker
7.6
43
Rayane Bounida
Rayane Bounida
Attacker69'
6.84
25
Wout Weghorst
Wout Weghorst Attacker
8.02

Events

2ND-HALF
85'
Event
Maher Carrizo → Mika Godts
8th Substitution
Event
Eser Gürbüz → Luca Oyen
6th Substitution
84'
Event
Lasse Nordås → Dylan Vente
7th Substitution
84'
Event
Luuk Brouwers → Ringo Meerveld
5th Substitution
84'
79'
Event
Kasper Dolberg → Sean Steur
4th Substitution
Event
Hristiyan Petrov → Vasilios Zagaritis
3rd Substitution
75'
70'
Event
Youri Regeer
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
69'
Event
Rayane Bounida → Steven Berghuis
1st Substitution
69'
Event
Youri Regeer → Davy Klaassen
2nd Substitution
58'
Event
Lucas Rosa
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
1ST-HALF
26'
Event
Jorthy Mokio
Foul / 1st Yellowcard

Match Commentary

90
Attempt Attempt
Trenskow Jacob takes a right-footed shot but misses.
90
Attempt Attempt
Trenskow Jacob takes a right-footed shot but misses.
90
Attempt Attempt
Maher Carrizo takes a left-footed shot, but it is saved.
89
Attempt Attempt
Anton Gaaei takes a right-footed shot but misses.
87
Update Update
Luuk Brouwers comes on for Ringo Meerveld.
86
Attempt Attempt
Maher Carrizo takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
86
Attempt Attempt
Maher Carrizo takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
85
Update Update
Maher Carrizo replaces Mika Godts.
85
Attempt Attempt
Maher Carrizo's left-footed shot is blocked.
84
Update Update
Eser Gurbuz replaces Luca Oyen.
84
Update Update
Lasse Selvag Nordas is on, and Dylan Vente is off.
83
Attempt Attempt
Trenskow Jacob took a right-footed shot but missed.
82
Attempt Attempt
Ringo Meerveld takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
82
Attempt Attempt
Dylan Vente's right-footed shot is blocked.
81
Attempt Attempt
Luca Oyen's right-footed shot is blocked.
80
Attempt Attempt
Kasper Dolberg's right-footed shot is saved.
79
Update Update
Kasper Dolberg comes on for Sean Steur.
79
Attempt Attempt
Oliver Braude takes a right-footed shot but misses.
75
Update Update
Hristiyan Petrov comes on for Vasilios Zagaritis.
74
Attempt Attempt
Trenskow Jacob takes a left-footed shot but misses.
72
Attempt Attempt
Sean Steur takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
72
Attempt Attempt
Mika Godts takes a left-footed shot, but it is blocked.
71
Attempt Attempt
Rayane Bounida takes a left-footed shot, but it's blocked.
70
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card shown to Youri Regeer.
69
Update Update
Youri Regeer replaces Davy Klaassen.
69
Update Update
Rayane Bounida replaces Steven Berghuis.
67
Attempt Attempt
Anton Gaaei's right-footed shot is blocked.
65
Attempt Attempt
Steven Berghuis takes a left-footed shot but misses.
63
Attempt Attempt
Jorthy Mokio attempts a header but misses the shot.
62
Attempt Attempt
Dylan Vente takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
58
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Lucas Oliveira Rosa receives a yellow card.
56
Attempt Attempt
Wout Weghorst's header shot missed.
55
Update Update
Wout Weghorst takes a header, but it misses the target.
49
Attempt Attempt
Trenskow Jacob takes a left-footed shot, but it is blocked.
49
Attempt Attempt
Dylan Vente takes a right-footed shot but misses.
47
Attempt Attempt
Steven Berghuis takes a left-footed shot but misses.
45
Attempt Attempt
Anton Gaaei takes a right-footed shot but misses.
42
Attempt Attempt
Sean Steur takes a right-footed shot but misses.
40
Attempt Attempt
Sean Steur takes a left-footed shot but misses.
39
Attempt Attempt
Wout Weghorst takes a right-footed shot but misses.
37
Attempt Attempt
Lucas Oliveira Rosa takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
37
Attempt Attempt
Anton Gaaei takes a right-footed shot, but it is saved.
31
Attempt Attempt
Ringo Meerveld takes a right-footed shot but misses.
26
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Jorthy Mokio receives a yellow card.
23
Attempt Attempt
Wout Weghorst attempts a header but misses the shot.
21
Attempt Attempt
Dylan Vente takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
14
Attempt Attempt
Luca Oyen's right-footed shot is saved.
12
Attempt Attempt
Trenskow Jacob takes a left-footed shot, but it is blocked.
6
Attempt Attempt
Trenskow Jacob takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
3
Attempt Attempt
Sean Steur takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.

CONCLUSION

The 0-0 draw between SC Heerenveen and Ajax delivered a result that matched the expected goals alignment while highlighting a notable structural deviation for the away team. Efficiency remained in line with expectations for both sides as they traded possession without finding the net. Market projections did not hold up given the final outcome, yet the xG expectations painted an accurate picture of the chance quality created. Event impact centered on the defensive solidity displayed, and the lack of red card distortion allowed for an uninterrupted flow of play. This performance indicates that Heerenveen can compete effectively against top opposition when organized properly. Ajax must refine their attacking efficiency to convert such opportunities into victories in future games. The match serves as a reminder of football's capacity for surprises even among unevenly matched teams.

SC Heerenveen vs Ajax preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

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Daniels Zorge

Daniels Zorge covers football fixtures with a focus on tactical matchups, playing styles, and key details that shape each game.