Katowice vs Jagiellonia Białystok Prediction, Preview and Stats

Poland flag 2025/2026 Ekstraklasa, Poland
Stadion ul. Bukowa Sun, 17 May - 12:45 PM
Ekstraklasa
Katowice Katowice
2 – 2
Jagiellonia Białystok Jagiellonia Białystok
Full Time Sun, 17 May 12:45 PM
Round 33 Regular Season
Borja Galán - 78'
Bartosz Nowak - 3'
Goal
|
Goal
Afimico Pululu - 56' (P)
Bernardo Vital - 31'

CONTEXT

Katowice and Jagiellonia Białystok played out an entertaining 2-2 draw in their recent fixture. The home side took the lead early but Jagiellonia responded quickly to make it 1-1 at the break. After halftime, both teams continued to push forward and found the net once more each, ensuring the points were shared. Jagiellonia enjoyed greater possession at 59 percent while Katowice sat at 41 percent. The stronger team according to pre-match assessments failed to come away with all three points. With no dismissals on either side, the game remained eleven versus eleven for the full duration. This draw showcases the resilience of both squads in a hard-fought battle that saw end-to-end action at times.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Jagiellonia Białystok showed a moderate structural deviation as the stronger team in this draw.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency remained in line with pre-match projections for both sides.
  • xG alignment: Expected goals alignment could not be assessed due to unavailable data.
  • Market alignment: The draw outcome proved consistent with market alignment indicators.
  • xG expectations: No specific xG expectations were recorded for the teams involved.
  • Event impact: The 1-1 halftime score had a direct impact on maintaining the final 2-2 result.
  • Red card distortion: Absence of red cards meant there was no distortion from disciplinary events.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

P. Raczkowski

Poland 25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

P. Sokolnicki

1st Assistant

Poland

F. Sierant

2nd Assistant

Poland

M. Pelka

4th Official

Poland

League averages

Ekstraklasa Based on last 100 matches

Fouls / match 21.82
Yellow cards / match 3.48
Red cards / match 0.2
Penalties / match 0.19
Katowice R. Górak
R. Górak
VS
Jagiellonia Białystok A. Siemieniec
A. Siemieniec
1.82
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.39
2 i
Last 6 Opponents
Piast Gliwice Rank: 61 D
Nieciecza Rank: 53 W
Korona Kielce Rank: 60 D
Motor Lublin Rank: 60 W
Lech Poznań Rank: 72 D
Wisła Płock Rank: 55 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Raków Częstochowa Rank: 69 W
Pogoń Szczecin Rank: 63 W
Górnik Zabrze Rank: 66 L
Arka Gdynia Rank: 56 W
Korona Kielce Rank: 60 D
Lech Poznań Rank: 72 D
1
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
1 - 0 - 2
2

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Katowice
4.47%
Draw
91.07%
Away Jagiellonia Białystok
4.47%

Movement

Changes since opening
Katowice
-0.48%
Draw
+1.55%
Jagiellonia Białystok
-1.06%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
65.16
66.04
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Katowice
Jagiellonia Białystok
Power Score
65.16
66.04
League Position
5
2
Global Rank
322
299

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Katowice — Opponent-weighted form score
Jagiellonia Białystok — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Katowice Jagiellonia Białystok

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Katowice

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Jagiellonia Białystok

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Katowice ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Jagiellonia Białystok
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
33.54
42.97
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
42.97
33.54
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Katowice -0.86 Efficiency Index
vs
Jagiellonia Białystok +0.86 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Katowice
Jagiellonia Białystok
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Katowice ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Jagiellonia Białystok
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Katowice Jagiellonia Białystok
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 1.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Katowice Jagiellonia Białystok
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
1.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Katowice
Jagiellonia Białystok
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Katowice
vs
Jagiellonia Białystok
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Katowice Jagiellonia Białystok
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Katowice 0.20
Jagiellonia Białystok 0.33
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Katowice Jagiellonia Białystok
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Katowice 0.03
Jagiellonia Białystok 0.04
Katowice
Jagiellonia Białystok
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • Jagiellonia Białystok had peak pressure around 32'.
  • Katowice started the game with stronger pressure.
Katowice Pressure Jagiellonia Białystok Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: Jagiellonia Białystok reached the top pressure at 32' (93.60).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 3 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Katowice Katowice Home
3 matches
Jagiellonia Białystok Jagiellonia Białystok Away
Match Record
1
Wins
2
0
Draws
0
2
Losses
1
Goals
4
Goals Scored
4
4
Goals Conceded
4
0
Goal Difference
0

Data last updated: 2026-05-18T09:02:21+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-4-3
Match Formation 4-3-3
Pitch
R. Straczek
Poland
12 R. Straczek
A. Czerwiński
Poland
30 A. Czerwiński
A. Jędrych
Poland
4 (C) A. Jędrych
M. Berntsen Olsen
Substitution
Norway
14 M. Berntsen Olsen
M. Wasielewski
Poland
23 M. Wasielewski
S. Milewski
Substitution
Poland
22 S. Milewski
M. Kowalczyk
Poland
77 M. Kowalczyk
B. Galán González
Substitution
Spain
8 B. Galán González
E. Marković
Substitution
Norway
15 E. Marković
A. Zreľák
Substitution
Slovakia
99 A. Zreľák
B. Nowak
Poland
27 B. Nowak
Pitch
S. Abramowicz
Poland
50 S. Abramowicz
G. Serrão Montóia
Portugal
23 G. Serrão Montóia
Y. Kobayashi
Japan
4 Y. Kobayashi
B. Cardoso Vital
Portugal
13 B. Cardoso Vital
N. Wojtuszek
Poland
15 N. Wojtuszek
S. Lozano Lluch
Substitution
Spain
21 S. Lozano Lluch
E. Kozłowski
Substitution
85 E. Kozłowski
J. Imaz Ballesté
Spain
11 (C) J. Imaz Ballesté
K. Szmyt
Poland
77 K. Szmyt
A. Pululu
Substitution
France
10 A. Pululu
A. Pozo Pozo
Substitution
Spain
7 A. Pozo Pozo

General Information

Date & Time :
May 17, 2026, 12:45 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Ekstraklasa, Poland · Round 33 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Stadion ul. Bukowa
Capacity :
7455
Attendance :
14651
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Paweł Raczkowski
Pawel Sokolnicki
Filip Sierant
Maciej Pelka

Statistics

Possession
Katowice
43%
Jagiellonia Białystok
57%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 2
1 Big Chances Created 2
4 Shots 8
55 Dangerous attacks 67
41 Possession 59
4 Corners 9
10 Free kicks 14
3 Yellow Cards 1

Match Overview

0 Penalties 1
5 Substitutions 4
1 Injuries 2
8 Goal Attempts 12
11 Throwins 17
61 Ball Safe 68
7 Dribble Attempts 13
71 Successful Dribbles Percentage 46
7 Goal Kicks 5
5 Successful Dribbles 6
0 Hit Woodwork 1
2 Assists 1

Attacking

0 Big Chances Missed 1
58 Attacks 68

Possession

8 Key Passes 15
235 Successful Passes 370
77 Successful Passes Percentage 82
304 Passes 449
48 Long Passes 56
40 Successful Long Passes Percentage 38
19 Successful Long Passes 21

Defensive

40 Duels Won 38
7 Interceptions 8
13 Tackles 9
6 Saves 3

Build-up

2 Accurate Crosses 8
13 Total Crosses 18

Discipline

15 Fouls 10

Lineup

Referee : Paweł Raczkowski

Starting XI ▼

12
Rafal Straczek
Rafal Straczek Goalkeeper
7.37
4
Arkadiusz Jedrych
Arkadiusz Jedrych (C) Defender
6.38
14
M. Olsen
M. Olsen Defender
6.83
6
Lukas Klemenz
Lukas Klemenz
Defender90+3'
30
Alan Czerwinski
Alan Czerwinski Defender
6.38
8
Borja Galán
Borja Galán Midfielder
7.49
97
Erik Jirka
Erik Jirka
Midfielder90+4'
22
Sebastian Milewski
Sebastian Milewski Midfielder
6.67
26
Damian Rasak
Damian Rasak
Midfielder65'
6.52
23
Marcin Wasielewski
Marcin Wasielewski Midfielder
6.47
77
Mateusz Kowalczyk
Mateusz Kowalczyk Midfielder
7.82
15
Eman Markovic
Eman Markovic Attacker
6.41
10
Marcel Wedrychowski
Marcel Wedrychowski
Midfielder65'
6.27
27
Bartosz Nowak
Bartosz Nowak Attacker
8.02
99
Adam Zrelak
Adam Zrelak Attacker
6.71
80
Ilya Shkurin
Ilya Shkurin
Attacker65'
6.92
Referee : Paweł Raczkowski

Starting XI ▼

50
Slawomir Abramowicz
Slawomir Abramowicz Goalkeeper
6.5
4
Yuki Kobayashi
Yuki Kobayashi Defender
6.47
13
Bernardo Vital
Bernardo Vital Defender
8.14
15
Norbert Wojtuszek
Norbert Wojtuszek Defender
6.47
23
Guilherme Montóia
Guilherme Montóia Defender
6.57
11
Jesús Imaz
Jesús Imaz (C) Midfielder
7.15
21
Sergio Lozano
Sergio Lozano Midfielder
6.79
86
Bartosz Mazurek
Bartosz Mazurek
Midfielder63'
7.01
85
Eryk Kozlowski
Eryk Kozlowski Midfielder
7.02
19
Matías Nahuel
Matías Nahuel
Midfielder90+3'
7
Álex Pozo
Álex Pozo Attacker
6.88
72
Kamil Jozwiak
Kamil Jozwiak
Midfielder76'
6.58
10
Afimico Pululu
Afimico Pululu Attacker
6.9
14
Samed Bazdar
Samed Bazdar
Attacker63'
6.81
77
Kajetan Szmyt
Kajetan Szmyt Attacker
6.92

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Erik Jirka → Borja Galán
9th Substitution
90+4'
Event
Lukas Klemenz → M. Olsen
7th Substitution
90+3'
90+3'
Event
Matías Nahuel → Eryk Kozlowski
8th Substitution
90+1'
Event
Jesús Imaz
Argument / 4th Yellowcard
Event
5th Yellowcard
90'
Event
M. Olsen
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
90'
Event
Arkadiusz Jedrych
Argument / 2nd Yellowcard
85'
Event
Marcin Wasielewski
Argument / 1st Yellowcard
82'
Event
Borja Galán
Right foot shot / 3rd Goal
78'
76'
Event
Kamil Jozwiak → Álex Pozo
6th Substitution
Event
Marcel Wedrychowski → Eman Markovic
5th Substitution
65'
Event
Ilya Shkurin → Adam Zrelak
4th Substitution
65'
Event
Damian Rasak → Sebastian Milewski
3rd Substitution
65'
63'
Event
Bartosz Mazurek → Sergio Lozano
2nd Substitution
63'
Event
Samed Bazdar → Afimico Pululu
1st Substitution
56'
Event
Afimico Pululu
Left foot shot / 1st Penalty
1ST-HALF
31'
Event
Bernardo Vital
Header / 2nd Goal
Event
Bartosz Nowak
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
3'

Match Commentary

90
Attempt Attempt
Jesus Imaz Balleste takes a left-footed shot, but it is blocked.
90
Attempt Attempt
Jesus Imaz Balleste takes a left-footed shot, but it's blocked.
90
Update Update
Lukas Klemenz replaces Marius Olsen.
90
Attempt Attempt
Bartosz Mazurek takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
90
Update Update
Erik Jirka replaces Borja Galan Gonzalez.
90
Attempt Attempt
Kajetan Szmyt takes a right-footed shot, but it is saved.
90
Attempt Attempt
Samed Bazdar takes a right-footed shot but misses.
90
Attempt Attempt
Ilia Shkurin takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
90
Update Update
Matias Nahuel Leiva comes on for Kozlowski.
89
Attempt Attempt
Kajetan Szmyt takes a right-footed shot but misses.
88
Attempt Attempt
Jesus Imaz Balleste takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
86
Attempt Attempt
Samed Bazdar's header is saved.
86
Update Update
Bernardo Vital's header is blocked.
86
Attempt Attempt
Kozlowski takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
83
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Marcin Wasielewski receives a yellow card.
81
Attempt Attempt
Borja Galan Gonzalez takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
81
Attempt Attempt
Marcel Wedrychowski takes a left-footed shot but misses.
78
Attempt Attempt
Borja Galan Gonzalez takes a shot with his right foot and scores.
76
Update Update
Kamil Jozwiak comes on for Alejandro Pozo.
74
Attempt Attempt
Borja Galan Gonzalez takes a right-footed shot but misses.
70
Attempt Attempt
Bartosz Nowak takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
69
Attempt Attempt
Bartosz Nowak's right-footed shot is blocked.
65
Update Update
Ilia Shkurin comes on for Adam Zrelak.
65
Update Update
Damian Rasak replaces Sebastian Milewski.
65
Substitution Substitution
Substitution: Marcel Wedrychowski comes on for Eman Markovic.
63
Update Update
Bartosz Mazurek replaces Sergio Lozano.
63
Update Update
Samed Bazdar comes on for Afimico Pululu.
59
Attempt Attempt
Alejandro Pozo takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
56
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal in the penalty shootout! Afimico Pululu scores, making it 1-2.
56
Attempt Attempt
Afimico Pululu scores with a left-footed shot.
44
Attempt Attempt
Sergio Lozano takes a right-footed shot but misses.
41
Attempt Attempt
Kajetan Szmyt takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
41
Attempt Attempt
Jesus Imaz Balleste takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
37
Attempt Attempt
Mateusz Kowalczyk takes a right-footed shot but misses.
35
Attempt Attempt
Afimico Pululu takes a left-footed shot, but it is blocked.
31
Update Update
Bernardo Vital scores with a header.
28
Attempt Attempt
Jesus Imaz Balleste takes a right-footed shot but misses.
23
Attempt Attempt
Afimico Pululu takes a left-footed shot but misses.
19
Attempt Attempt
Bernardo Vital's header is saved.
18
Attempt Attempt
Jesus Imaz Balleste takes a left-footed shot, but it is blocked.
12
Attempt Attempt
Marius Olsen attempts a header but misses the shot.
11
Attempt Attempt
Afimico Pululu takes a left-footed shot, but it is saved.
8
Attempt Attempt
Mateusz Kowalczyk's right-footed shot is saved.
3
Attempt Attempt
Bartosz Nowak takes a shot with his right foot and scores.

CONCLUSION

In conclusion, the 2-2 result represents a fair outcome given the flow of the match. Katowice demonstrated solid defensive organization to hold the visitors at bay despite lower possession figures. Jagiellonia created opportunities but lacked the finishing touch needed to claim victory away from home. The even halftime score set the tone for a second half that mirrored the first in terms of goal output. Both teams can take positives from their performances, particularly in maintaining composure without any disciplinary issues arising. This point each could prove valuable in the context of their respective campaigns moving forward. Overall, it was a match defined by parity and mutual respect on the pitch.

Katowice vs Jagiellonia Białystok preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

About BestPreviews Methodology & FAQ More Match Reports

How We Build This Analysis

BestPreviews combines tactical context, lineup quality, xG trends, and form data across competitions. Read the full methodology and FAQ.

Related Football Previews

Explore League Previews

Ekstraklasa, Poland View all league clusters View methodology and FAQ

Author

Daniels Zorge

Daniels Zorge covers football fixtures with a focus on tactical matchups, playing styles, and key details that shape each game.