Livingston vs Kilmarnock Prediction, Preview and Stats

Scotland flag 2025/2026 Premiership, Scotland
Tony Macaroni Arena Sun, 17 May - 1:00 PM
Premiership
Livingston LIV
Versus
Kilmarnock KIL
KICKOFF : Sun, 17 May - 1:00 PM
Round 38 2nd Phase

CONTEXT

Livingston host Kilmarnock in Premiership (2nd Phase) at Tony Macaroni Arena. Domestically, Livingston sit 12th in the table while Kilmarnock are 11th. Power ranking favours Kilmarnock by 8 points heading into this fixture.

TL;DR

  • Structural: Kilmarnock hold an 8-point power score advantage over Livingston.
  • Form: Kilmarnock's form score of 19.17 exceeds Livingston's 13.11.
  • Squad: Livingston sit 12th in the league, one position below Kilmarnock's 11th.
  • Efficiency: Efficiency metrics are unavailable for both teams.
  • Transition: Transition play data is not provided for this fixture.
  • Set pieces: Set piece data unavailable due to lack of xG and low confidence proxies.
  • xVariable: xG data unavailable as add-on not enabled.
  • Market: Livingston 34.4% (Δ+0%) | Draw 26.6% (Δ+0%) | Kilmarnock 39% (Δ+0%).
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Jan 25 vs Team A
Feb 1 vs Team B
Feb 8 vs Team C
Livingston S. Arfield
S. Arfield
VS
Kilmarnock N. McCann
N. McCann
0.52
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.08
1 i
Last 6 Opponents
Dundee United Rank: 61 D
Dundee Rank: 59 L
Aberdeen Rank: 59 D
St. Mirren Rank: 58 W
Dundee United Rank: 61 L
Hearts Rank: 75 D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Dundee Rank: 60 W
St. Mirren Rank: 57 W
Dundee United Rank: 64 W
Aberdeen Rank: 58 L
Dundee Rank: 59 D
Hibernian Rank: 69 L
7
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
7 - 4 - 10
10
No sidelined player data available.

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Livingston
34.38%
Draw
26.58%
Away Kilmarnock
39.04%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
52.25
60.28
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Livingston
Kilmarnock
Power Score
52.25
60.28
League Position
12
11
Global Rank
669
477

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Livingston — Opponent-weighted form score
Kilmarnock — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Livingston Kilmarnock

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 21 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Livingston LIV Home
21 matches
Kilmarnock KIL Away
Match Record
7
Wins
10
4
Draws
4
10
Losses
7
Goals
22
Goals Scored
31
31
Goals Conceded
22
-9
Goal Difference
+9
Expected Goals
0.99
xG
1.76
1.76
xGA
0.99

Data last updated: 2026-05-15T01:07:37+00:00

STARTING XI - EXPECTED

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-3-3
Pitch
J. Prior
28 J. Prior
C. Kerr
2 C. Kerr
D. Finlayson
19 D. Finlayson
B. Kabongolo
23 B. Kabongolo
C. Montaño Castillo
26 C. Montaño Castillo
M. Tait
25 M. Tait
E. Danso
20 E. Danso
L. Smith
15 L. Smith
S. Pittman
8 S. Pittman
S. May
17 S. May
R. Muirhead
9 R. Muirhead
Pitch
M. Stryjek
1 M. Stryjek
D. Thompson
3 D. Thompson
R. Deas
6 R. Deas
G. Stanger
14 G. Stanger
M. Schjonning-Larsen
21 M. Schjonning-Larsen
A. Tshibola
36 A. Tshibola
T. Lowery
18 T. Lowery
F. Curtis
52 F. Curtis
B. Anderson
19 B. Anderson
J. Hugill
44 J. Hugill
G. Kiltie
11 G. Kiltie

General Information

Date & Time :
May 17, 2026, 01:00 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Premiership, Scotland · Round 38 · 2nd Phase
Stadium :
Tony Macaroni Arena
Capacity :
9672
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Ryan Lee
Ross MacLeod
Dougie Potter
Euan Anderson

Expected Lineup

Referee : Ryan Lee

Starting XI ▼

28
Jérôme Prior
Jérôme Prior Goalkeeper
6.84
9
Robbie Muirhead
Robbie Muirhead Centre Forward
6.77
23
Brooklyn Kabongolo
Brooklyn Kabongolo Left Back
6.85
25
Macaulay Tait
Macaulay Tait Defensive Midfield
6.52
20
Emmanuel Danso
Emmanuel Danso Defensive Midfield
6.63
17
Stevie May
Stevie May Left Wing
6.81
2
Cammy Kerr
Cammy Kerr Right Back
6.78
26
Cristian Montano
Cristian Montano Left Back
6.69
19
Danny Finlayson
Danny Finlayson Right Back
6.75
15
Lewis Smith
Lewis Smith Right Wing
6.83
8
Scott Pittman
Scott Pittman Attacking Midfield
6.74
Referee : Ryan Lee

Starting XI ▼

1
Maksymilian Stryjek
Maksymilian Stryjek Goalkeeper
7.11
11
Greg Kiltie
Greg Kiltie Attacker
6.92
44
Joe Hugill
Joe Hugill Centre Forward
6.99
19
Bruce Anderson
Bruce Anderson Attacker
6.61
21
Michael Schjönning-Larsen
Michael Schjönning-Larsen Right Back
6.69
14
George Stanger
George Stanger Right Back
6.64
3
Dominic Thompson
Dominic Thompson Left Back
6.63
6
Robbie Deas
Robbie Deas Left Back
6.8
52
Findlay Curtis
Findlay Curtis Central Midfield
6.68
18
Tom Lowery
Tom Lowery Central Midfield
6.61
36
Aaron Tshibola
Aaron Tshibola Central Midfield
6.88

CONCLUSION

Kilmarnock enter as marginal favorites thanks to their power and form superiority, but Livingston's home ground at Tony Macaroni Arena could level the playing field in this tight Premiership scrap. With league positions nearly identical, the 8-point power gap underscores the visitors' underlying strength. Absence of detailed efficiency, transition, and set piece stats leaves room for surprises, yet Kilmarnock's edge suggests control. Livingston must maximize every chance to grind out a result against a side primed for points. A closely contested affair looms, hinging on execution amid data gaps.

Livingston vs Kilmarnock preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

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