Dundee vs Aberdeen Prediction, Preview and Stats

Scotland flag 2025/2026 Premiership, Scotland
Kilmac Stadium at Dens Park Sun, 17 May - 1:00 PM
Premiership
Dundee DUD
3 Winner 2
Aberdeen ABE
Full Time Sun, 17 May 1:00 PM
Round 38 2nd Phase
Ryan Astley - 90'
Joe Westley - 61'
Drey Wright - 10'
Goal
|
Goal
Toyosi Olusanya - 45+6'
Liam Morrison - 23'

CONTEXT

Dundee emerged as winners in their home match against Aberdeen, finishing with a 3-2 scoreline after a dramatic turnaround. At halftime the score stood at 1-2 in favor of the visitors. The home team increased their possession share to 56 percent while limiting Aberdeen to 44 percent over the course of the game. Being identified as the stronger side prior to kickoff, Dundee fulfilled that role by securing all three points. The absence of any red cards meant both teams maintained eleven players on the pitch for the entire duration. A significant deviation of 63 percent was recorded in the structural aspects of the performance by the winning team. This result came about through effective second half adjustments that countered the early setback.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Dundee exhibited a significant structural deviation of 63 percent from pre-match projections in securing the victory.
  • Efficiency shift: The efficiency shift was in line with expectations for the stronger team.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment could not be determined due to unavailable expected goals data.
  • Market alignment: The outcome was aligned with market expectations as the home side prevailed.
  • xG expectations: Expected goals metrics were not provided in the match data for evaluation.
  • Event impact: The second half adjustments allowed Dundee to overcome the halftime deficit of 1-2.
  • Red card distortion: With no red cards issued, there was no red card distortion affecting the match result.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

R. Hardie

Scotland 25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

D. McGeachie

1st Assistant

Scotland

K. Buchanan

2nd Assistant

Scotland

J. Kennedy

4th Official

Scotland

League averages

Premiership Based on last 100 matches

Fouls / match 22.39
Yellow cards / match 4.02
Red cards / match 0.2
Penalties / match 0.29
Dundee S. Pressley
S. Pressley
VS
Aberdeen S. Robinson
S. Robinson
1.2
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.12
1.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Kilmarnock Rank: 59 L
Livingston Rank: 55 W
St. Mirren Rank: 57 W
Dundee United Rank: 62 L
Kilmarnock Rank: 60 D
Celtic Rank: 80 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
St. Mirren Rank: 56 L
Dundee United Rank: 62 W
Livingston Rank: 55 D
Kilmarnock Rank: 56 W
Hibernian Rank: 68 W
St. Mirren Rank: 57 L
3
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
3 - 7 - 23
23

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Dundee
37.04%
Draw
27.92%
Away Aberdeen
35.04%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
58.53
58.41
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Dundee
Aberdeen
Power Score
58.53
58.41
League Position
9
8
Global Rank
532
537

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Dundee — Opponent-weighted form score
Aberdeen — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Dundee Aberdeen

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Dundee

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Aberdeen

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —
Possession Efficiency data not available for this match.

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Dundee ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Aberdeen
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Dundee Aberdeen
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Dundee Aberdeen
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Dundee
Aberdeen
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Dundee
vs
Aberdeen
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Dundee Aberdeen
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Dundee 0.00
Aberdeen 0.00
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Dundee Aberdeen
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Dundee 0.00
Aberdeen 0.00
Dundee
Aberdeen
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • DUD had peak pressure around 13'.
  • DUD started the game with stronger pressure.
DUD Pressure ABE Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: DUD reached the top pressure at 13' (69.82).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 33 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Dundee DUD Home
33 matches
Aberdeen ABE Away
Match Record
3
Wins
23
7
Draws
7
23
Losses
3
Goals
26
Goals Scored
69
69
Goals Conceded
26
-43
Goal Difference
+43

Data last updated: 2026-05-17T12:45:32+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-3-1-2
Pitch
K. O'Hara
Republic of Ireland
13 K. O'Hara
D. Wright
England
7 D. Wright
R. Astley
Wales
4 R. Astley
B. Koumetio
France
5 B. Koumetio
I. Samuels
Substitution
England
12 I. Samuels
C. Jones
Wales
28 C. Jones
E. Hamilton
Substitution
Scotland
48 E. Hamilton
C. Congreve
Substitution
Wales
20 C. Congreve
F. Robertson
Scotland
10 F. Robertson
C. Reilly
Substitution
Scotland
18 C. Reilly
J. Westley
Substitution
England
19 J. Westley
Pitch
N. Suman
Australia
13 N. Suman
G. Molloy
Republic of Ireland
21 G. Molloy
M. Knoester
Substitution
Netherlands
5 M. Knoester
L. Morrison
Scotland
23 L. Morrison
J. Milne
Scotland
22 J. Milne
L. Cameron
Substitution
Scotland
25 L. Cameron
K. Már Kjartansson
Substitution
Iceland
29 K. Már Kjartansson
T. Keskinen
Substitution
Finland
81 T. Keskinen
D. Geiger
Substitution
Germany
8 D. Geiger
T. Olusanya
England
20 T. Olusanya
K. Nisbet
Scotland
15 K. Nisbet

General Information

Date & Time :
May 17, 2026, 01:00 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Premiership, Scotland · Round 38 · 2nd Phase
Stadium :
Kilmac Stadium at Dens Park
Capacity :
11775
Attendance :
8279
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Ross Hardie
David McGeachie
Kevin Buchanan
Joel Kennedy

Statistics

Possession
DUD
54%
ABE
46%

Top Statistics

3 Goals 2
5 Big Chances Created 1
2 Shots 6
38 Dangerous attacks 29
56 Possession 44
7 Corners 2
9 Free kicks 14

Match Overview

7 Successful Dribbles 2
0 Injuries 3
8 Goal Kicks 5
67 Ball Safe 64
26 Throwins 24
29 Successful Dribbles Percentage 40
7 Goal Attempts 6
0 Substitutions 3
24 Dribble Attempts 5
2 Assists 1

Attacking

2 Big Chances Missed 0
96 Attacks 92

Possession

75 Successful Passes Percentage 68
27 Successful Long Passes 22
45 Successful Long Passes Percentage 29
306 Successful Passes 215
408 Passes 317
60 Long Passes 77
9 Key Passes 4

Defensive

0 Saves 3
43 Duels Won 56
10 Tackles 24
10 Interceptions 13

Build-up

14 Total Crosses 9
3 Accurate Crosses 1

Discipline

2 Offsides 1
14 Fouls 9

Lineup

Referee : Ross Hardie

Starting XI ▼

13
Kieran O'Hara
Kieran O'Hara Goalkeeper
7.23
4
Ryan Astley
Ryan Astley Defender
6.87
5
Billy Koumetio
Billy Koumetio Defender
6.81
7
Drey Wright
Drey Wright Defender
6.75
12
Imari Samuels
Imari Samuels Defender
6.49
22
Luke Graham
Luke Graham
Defender87'
7
10
Finlay Robertson
Finlay Robertson Midfielder
6.69
18
Charlie Reilly
Charlie Reilly Midfielder
6.65
27
Joe Bevan
Joe Bevan
Attacker68'
6.27
20
Cameron Congreve
Cameron Congreve Midfielder
6.77
17
Tony Yogane
Tony Yogane
Midfielder77'
6.74
28
Callum Jones
Callum Jones Midfielder
6.66
48
Ethan Hamilton
Ethan Hamilton Midfielder
6.8
24
Joel Cotterill
Joel Cotterill
Midfielder77'
6.68
19
Joe Westley
Joe Westley Attacker
6.69
15
Simon Murray
Simon Murray
Attacker77'
6.64
Referee : Ross Hardie

Starting XI ▼

13
Nick Suman
Nick Suman Goalkeeper
5
Mats Knoester
Mats Knoester Defender
6.85
2
Nicky Devlin
Nicky Devlin
Defender14'
6.66
21
Gavin Molloy
Gavin Molloy Defender
6.76
22
Jack Milne
Jack Milne Defender
6.73
23
Liam Morrison
Liam Morrison Defender
6.59
8
Dennis Geiger
Dennis Geiger Midfielder
6.69
4
Graeme Shinnie
Graeme Shinnie
Midfielder69'
6.7
25
Lyall Cameron
Lyall Cameron Midfielder
6.58
14
Kenan Bilalovic
Kenan Bilalovic
Midfielder69'
6.55
29
Kjartan Már Kjartansson
Kjartan Már Kjartansson Midfielder
6.52
32
Afeez Aremu
Afeez Aremu
Midfielder76'
6.73
81
Topi Keskinen
Topi Keskinen Midfielder
6.69
11
Nicolas Milanovic
Nicolas Milanovic
Attacker69'
6.6
15
Kevin Nisbet
Kevin Nisbet Attacker
6.88
20
Toyosi Olusanya
Toyosi Olusanya Attacker
6.67

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Ryan Astley
Header / 5th Goal
90'
Event
Luke Graham → Imari Samuels
10th Substitution
87'
Event
Simon Murray → Joe Westley
8th Substitution
77'
Event
Tony Yogane → Cameron Congreve
9th Substitution
77'
Event
Joel Cotterill → Ethan Hamilton
7th Substitution
77'
76'
Event
Afeez Aremu → Kjartan Már Kjartansson
6th Substitution
69'
Event
Kenan Bilalovic → Lyall Cameron
3rd Substitution
69'
Event
Nicolas Milanovic → Topi Keskinen
4th Substitution
69'
Event
Graeme Shinnie  → Dennis Geiger
5th Substitution
Event
Joe Bevan → Charlie Reilly
2nd Substitution
68'
Event
Joe Westley
Right foot shot / 4th Goal
61'
1ST-HALF
45+6'
Event
Toyosi Olusanya
Right foot shot / 3rd Goal
23'
Event
Liam Morrison
Header / 2nd Goal
14'
Event
Nicky Devlin  → Mats Knoester
1st Substitution
Event
Drey Wright
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
10'

Match Commentary

90
Attempt Attempt
Ryan Astley takes a shot with his head and scores a goal.
89
Attempt Attempt
Joe Bevan takes a left-footed shot, but it's blocked.
87
Substitution Substitution
Graham Luke is substituted for Imari Samuels.
83
Attempt Attempt
Joel Cotterill takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
77
Update Update
Joel Cotterill replaces Ethan Hamilton.
77
Attempt Attempt
Graeme Shinnie takes a left-footed shot but misses.
77
Update Update
Simon Murray replaces Joe Westley.
76
Substitution Substitution
Tony Yogane is substituted for Cameron Congreve.
76
Update Update
Aremu Afeez is on, and Kjartan Mar Kjartansson is off.
72
Attempt Attempt
Nicolas Milanovic takes a left-footed shot but misses.
69
Update Update
Nicolas Milanovic is on, and Topi Keskinen is off.
69
Update Update
Graeme Shinnie comes on for Dennis Geiger.
69
Update Update
Kenan Bilalovic replaces Lyall Cameron.
68
Update Update
Joe Bevan is on, and Charlie Reilly is off.
61
Attempt Attempt
Charlie Reilly takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
61
Attempt Attempt
Joe Westley takes a shot with his right foot and scores.
57
Attempt Attempt
Topi Keskinen's left-footed shot is blocked.
45
Attempt Attempt
Cameron Congreve takes a left-footed shot but misses.
45
Attempt Attempt
Joe Westley has a left-footed shot, but it's blocked.
45
Attempt Attempt
Kjartan Mar Kjartansson takes a right-footed shot but misses.
45
Attempt Attempt
Shot on goal! Olutoyosi Tajudeen Olusanya takes a right-footed shot.
45
Attempt Attempt
Olutoyosi Tajudeen Olusanya takes a shot with his right foot and scores.
44
Attempt Attempt
Drey Wright's right-footed shot is blocked.
39
Attempt Attempt
Dennis Geiger takes a right-footed shot but misses.
23
Update Update
Liam Morrison scores with a header.
21
Attempt Attempt
Finlay Robertson's left-footed shot is blocked.
14
Update Update
Nicky Devlin is on, and Mats Knoester is off.
10
Attempt Attempt
Drey Wright scores with a right-footed shot.
10
Attempt Attempt
Drey Wright scores with a right-footed shot.
5
Attempt Attempt
Kevin Nisbet takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.

CONCLUSION

The match between Dundee and Aberdeen concluded with the home side claiming a narrow 3-2 win despite trailing at the interval. Dundee's ability to adapt their approach in the second period proved decisive in overturning the deficit. With possession statistics indicating a slight edge for the victors, the game highlighted the importance of sustained pressure and clinical finishing. The lack of disciplinary issues allowed for an open contest where both teams had opportunities to influence proceedings. Overall the result was consistent with the pre-match assessment of team strengths. Analytical review shows that efficiency remained aligned throughout the key phases of play. Such outcomes underscore the dynamic nature of football where halftime positions do not always dictate the final result.

Dundee vs Aberdeen preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

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Daniels Zorge

Daniels Zorge covers football fixtures with a focus on tactical matchups, playing styles, and key details that shape each game.