Everton vs Sunderland Prediction, Preview and Stats

England flag 2025/2026 Premier League, England
Hill Dickinson Stadium Sun, 17 May - 2:00 PM
Premier League
Everton EVE
1 Winner 3
Sunderland SUN
Full Time Sun, 17 May 2:00 PM
Round 37 Regular Season
Merlin Röhl - 43'
Goal
|
Goal
Wilson Isidor - 90+1'
Enzo Le Fée - 81'
Brian Brobbey - 59'

CONTEXT

Everton hosted Sunderland in a fixture where the home side entered as the stronger team yet ultimately fell short. Everton opened the scoring to lead 1-0 at halftime before Sunderland responded with three second-half goals to complete a 1-3 away win. Expected goals stood at 1.12 for Everton and 0.86 for Sunderland, creating a 0.26 differential that failed to translate into the actual result. Possession remained nearly even at 48 percent for the hosts and 52 percent for the visitors. No red cards were shown to either side across the full ninety minutes. The outcome represented a significant deviation from pre-match expectations and highlighted how second-half adjustments can override statistical indicators and team hierarchies.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Final score: Everton 1-3 Sunderland. Sunderland showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: The efficiency shift stayed in line with the overall performance levels recorded by both teams.
  • xG alignment: The result showed no xG alignment since Everton posted the higher expected goals total yet lost.
  • Market alignment: The final scoreline demonstrated no market alignment with the projected outcome before kickoff.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations pointed to Everton at 1.12 against Sunderland at 0.86 but were overturned on the pitch.
  • Event impact: Sunderland's three second-half goals created the decisive event impact that changed the match trajectory.
  • Red card distortion: Zero red cards were issued so red card distortion played no role in the final result.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

J. Brooks

England 25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

S. Bennett

1st Assistant

England

C. Taylor

2nd Assistant

England

O. Langford

4th Official

England

League averages

Premier League Based on last 100 matches

Fouls / match 18.63
Yellow cards / match 3.34
Red cards / match 0.09
Penalties / match 0.18
Everton D. Moyes
D. Moyes
VS
Sunderland R. Le Bris
R. Le Bris
1.36
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.16
1 i
Last 6 Opponents
Crystal Palace Rank: 86 D
Manchester City Rank: 98 D
West Ham United Rank: 83 L
Liverpool Rank: 91 L
Brentford Rank: 88 D
Chelsea Rank: 88 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Manchester United Rank: 92 D
Wolverhampton Wanderers Rank: 79 D
Nottingham Forest Rank: 85 L
Aston Villa Rank: 91 L
Tottenham Hotspur Rank: 84 W
Newcastle United Rank: 89 W
18
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
18 - 9 - 6
6

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Everton
51.18%
Draw
26.31%
Away Sunderland
22.51%

Movement

Changes since opening
Everton
+50.96%
Draw
+24.39%
Sunderland
-75.35%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
86.28
82.14
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Everton
Sunderland
Power Score
86.28
82.14
League Position
12
9
Global Rank
26
47

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Everton — Opponent-weighted form score
Sunderland — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Everton Sunderland

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Everton

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Sunderland

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Everton ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Sunderland
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
25.21
17.31
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
17.31
25.21
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Everton +0.86 Efficiency Index
vs
Sunderland -0.86 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Everton
Sunderland
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Everton
vs
Sunderland
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Everton Sunderland
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Everton Sunderland
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
Everton
Sunderland
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Everton
vs
Sunderland
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Everton Sunderland
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Everton 0.24
Sunderland 0.18
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Everton Sunderland
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Everton 0.08
Sunderland 0.02
Everton
Sunderland
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • EVE had peak pressure around 42'.
  • EVE started the game with stronger pressure.
EVE Pressure SUN Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: EVE reached the top pressure at 42' (78.99).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 33 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Everton EVE Home
33 matches
Sunderland SUN Away
Match Record
18
Wins
6
9
Draws
9
6
Losses
18
Goals
57
Goals Scored
27
27
Goals Conceded
57
+30
Goal Difference
-30

Data last updated: 2026-05-18T09:02:41+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
J. Pickford
England
1 J. Pickford
J. O´Brien
Substitution
Republic of Ireland
15 J. O´Brien
J. Tarkowski
England
6 (C) J. Tarkowski
M. Keane
England
5 M. Keane
V. Mykolenko
Ukraine
16 V. Mykolenko
J. Garner
England
37 J. Garner
T. Iroegbunam
Substitution
England
42 T. Iroegbunam
M. Röhl
Substitution
Germany
34 M. Röhl
K. Dewsbury-Hall
England
22 K. Dewsbury-Hall
I. Ndiaye
Senegal
10 I. Ndiaye
N. Bercique Gomes Betuncal
Substitution
Portugal
9 N. Bercique Gomes Betuncal
Pitch
R. Roefs
Netherlands
22 R. Roefs
R. Mandava
Mozambique
17 R. Mandava
O. Alderete Fernández
Substitution
Paraguay
15 O. Alderete Fernández
N. Mukiele Mulere
France
20 N. Mukiele Mulere
L. Geertruida
Netherlands
6 L. Geertruida
N. Sadiki
Substitution
Belgium
27 N. Sadiki
G. Xhaka
Switzerland
34 (C) G. Xhaka
N. Angulo Ramírez
Substitution
Ecuador
10 N. Angulo Ramírez
E. Le Fée
France
28 E. Le Fée
T. Hume
Substitution
Northern Ireland
32 T. Hume
B. Brobbey
Substitution
Netherlands
9 B. Brobbey

General Information

Date & Time :
May 17, 2026, 02:00 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Premier League, England · Round 37 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Hill Dickinson Stadium
Capacity :
52888
Attendance :
52590
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
John Brooks
Simon Bennett
Craig Taylor
Oliver Langford

Statistics

Possession
EVE
49%
SUN
51%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 3
2 Big Chances Created 2
2 Shots 0
42 Dangerous attacks 40
48 Possession 52
3 Corners 2
10 Free kicks 14
3 Yellow Cards 0

Match Overview

5 Goal Kicks 8
20 Throwins 18
50 Successful Dribbles Percentage 38
5 Successful Dribbles 3
10 Dribble Attempts 8
11 Successful Headers 13
4 Substitutions 5
1 Assists 3
81 Ball Safe 89
8 Goal Attempts 6
1 Injuries 2

Attacking

90 Attacks 84
2 Big Chances Missed 0

Possession

407 Passes 451
85 Successful Passes Percentage 85
32 Successful Long Passes Percentage 40
56 Long Passes 42
346 Successful Passes 384
18 Successful Long Passes 17
9 Key Passes 4

Defensive

40 Duels Won 39
10 Interceptions 3
13 Tackles 10
0 Saves 3

Build-up

18 Total Crosses 20
7 Accurate Crosses 2

Discipline

14 Fouls 9
0 Offsides 1

Lineup

Referee : John Brooks

Starting XI ▼

1
Jordan Pickford
Jordan Pickford Goalkeeper
5.77
5
Michael Keane
Michael Keane Defender
6.59
6
James Tarkowski
James Tarkowski (C) Defender
6.76
15
Jake O'Brien
Jake O'Brien Defender
5.94
23
Séamus Coleman
Séamus Coleman
Defender88'
5.2
16
Vitaliy Mykolenko
Vitaliy Mykolenko Defender
6.25
10
Iliman Ndiaye
Iliman Ndiaye Midfielder
5.91
22
Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall
Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall Midfielder
7.38
34
Merlin Röhl
Merlin Röhl Midfielder
7.49
7
Dwight McNeil
Dwight McNeil
Attacker88'
37
James Garner
James Garner Midfielder
6.85
42
Tim Iroegbunam
Tim Iroegbunam Midfielder
6.41
19
Tyrique George
Tyrique George
Attacker73'
6.88
9
Beto
Beto Attacker
6.31
11
Thierno Barry
Thierno Barry
Attacker73'
6.52
Referee : John Brooks

Starting XI ▼

22
Robin Roefs
Robin Roefs Goalkeeper
6.9
6
Lutsharel Geertruida
Lutsharel Geertruida Defender
7.17
15
Omar Alderete
Omar Alderete Defender
6.44
13
Luke O'Nien
Luke O'Nien
Midfielder23'
7.01
17
Reinildo Mandava
Reinildo Mandava Defender
6.9
20
Nordi Mukiele
Nordi Mukiele Defender
6.73
10
Nilson Angulo
Nilson Angulo Midfielder
6.39
11
Chris Rigg
Chris Rigg
Midfielder77'
6.93
27
Noah Sadiki
Noah Sadiki Midfielder
6.27
19
Habib Diarra
Habib Diarra
Midfielder77'
7.06
28
Enzo Le Fée
Enzo Le Fée Midfielder
8.41
32
Trai Hume
Trai Hume Midfielder
6.49
7
Chemsdine Talbi
Chemsdine Talbi
Attacker60'
6.52
34
Granit Xhaka
Granit Xhaka (C) Midfielder
6.92
9
Brian Brobbey
Brian Brobbey Attacker
7.06
18
Wilson Isidor
Wilson Isidor
Attacker77'
7.16

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
James Garner
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
90+6'
90+1'
Event
Wilson Isidor
Right foot shot / 4th Goal
Event
Dwight McNeil → Merlin Röhl
9th Substitution
88'
Event
Séamus Coleman → Jake O'Brien
8th Substitution
88'
81'
Event
Enzo Le Fée
Left foot shot / 3rd Goal
77'
Event
Wilson Isidor → Brian Brobbey
6th Substitution
77'
Event
Habib Diarra → Noah Sadiki
5th Substitution
77'
Event
Chris Rigg → Nilson Angulo
7th Substitution
Event
Tyrique George → Tim Iroegbunam
4th Substitution
73'
Event
Thierno Barry → Beto
3rd Substitution
73'
60'
Event
Chemsdine Talbi → Trai Hume
2nd Substitution
59'
Event
Brian Brobbey
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
Event
Jake O'Brien
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
47'
1ST-HALF
Event
Merlin Röhl
Left foot shot / 1st Goal
43'
Event
Tim Iroegbunam
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
25'
23'
Event
Luke O'Nien → Omar Alderete
1st Substitution

Match Commentary

90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
James Garner of Everton receives a yellow card for a foul.
90
Update Update
Foul committed by James Garner of Everton.
90
Update Update
Granit Xhaka from Sunderland won a free kick in defense.
90
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Sunderland lead 3-1 after Wilson Isidor scores with a right-footed shot from the center of the box into the right corner, assisted by Habib Diarra's cross.
90
Update Update
The second half ends with Everton losing 1-3 to Sunderland.
90
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated that there will be 6 minutes of added time.
90
Attempt Attempt
Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall of Everton had a missed chance, shooting with his right foot from outside the box, but the ball went to the left. Thierno Barry provided the assist.
89
Update Update
Thierno Barry of Everton commits a foul.
89
Update Update
Nordi Mukiele from Sunderland won a free kick in defense.
88
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Everton: Séamus Coleman replaces Jake O'Brien.
88
Update Update
Sunderland is called offside. Habib Diarra is the player in an offside position.
88
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Everton: Dwight McNeil replaces Merlin Röhl.
86
Corner Corner
Everton wins a corner after Robin Roefs concedes.
86
Update Update
Jake O'Brien of Everton attempts an attack with a header from close range, but Robin Roefs, the Sunderland goalkeeper, makes a save in the center of the goal. The assist came from Tyrique George, who delivered the cross.
84
Attempt Attempt
Missed chance. Merlin Röhl of Everton shot with his right foot from the center of the box.
81
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Sunderland leads 2-1 after Enzo Le Fée scores with a left-footed shot from the center of the box into the left corner, assisted by Chris Rigg.
77
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Sunderland: Chris Rigg replaces Nilson Angulo.
77
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Sunderland: Habib Diarra replaces Noah Sadiki.
77
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Sunderland: Wilson Isidor replaces Brian Brobbey.
73
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Everton: Thierno Barry replaces Beto.
73
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Everton: Tyrique George replaces Tim Iroegbunam.
71
Update Update
Foul committed by Tim Iroegbunam against Everton.
71
Update Update
Enzo Le Fée from Sunderland won a free kick in defense.
70
Update Update
Foul committed by Brian Brobbey against Sunderland.
70
Update Update
James Garner of Everton won a free kick in defense.
68
Update Update
There is a delay in the match due to an injury to Reinildo Mandava of Sunderland.
67
Update Update
Foul committed by James Garner of Everton.
67
Update Update
Brian Brobbey of Sunderland won a free kick in defense.
65
Update Update
Foul committed by Luke O'Nien of Sunderland.
65
Update Update
Merlin Röhl of Everton won a free kick in an attacking position.
64
Attempt Attempt
Iliman Ndiaye's shot from the left side of the box is blocked. The assist was provided by Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall.
64
Attempt Attempt
Jake O'Brien from Everton missed a header from the center of the box, sending the ball to the left. The assist came from Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall's cross.
63
Update Update
Foul committed by Brian Brobbey against Sunderland.
63
Update Update
James Tarkowski of Everton won a free kick in defense.
62
Update Update
Foul committed by Merlin Röhl for Everton.
62
Update Update
Luke O'Nien from Sunderland won a free kick in defense.
60
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Sunderland: Chemsdine Talbi replaces Trai Hume.
59
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! The score is now 1-1 as Brian Brobbey scores for Sunderland with a right-footed shot from the center of the box into the right corner, assisted by Enzo Le Fée's through ball.
56
Update Update
Noah Sadiki from Sunderland committed a foul.
56
Corner Corner
Sunderland wins a corner after Jordan Pickford concedes.
56
Update Update
Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall of Everton won a free kick in defense.
54
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Sunderland after a concession by Tim Iroegbunam.
53
Update Update
Enzo Le Fée from Sunderland won a free kick on the left wing.
53
Update Update
Foul committed by James Tarkowski of Everton.
50
Update Update
Nilson Angulo from Sunderland commits a foul.
50
Update Update
James Garner of Everton won a free kick in defense.
48
Update Update
Foul committed by James Garner of Everton.
48
Update Update
Granit Xhaka wins a free kick for Sunderland in an attacking position.
47
Update Update
Foul committed by Jake O'Brien of Everton.
47
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Jake O'Brien from Everton receives a yellow card for a foul.
47
Update Update
Nilson Angulo from Sunderland won a free kick on the left wing.
46
Update Update
Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall fouled an Everton player.
46
Update Update
Granit Xhaka of Sunderland won a free kick in an attacking position.
45
Update Update
The first half ends with Everton leading Sunderland 1-0.
45
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated there will be 3 minutes of added time.
45
Update Update
The second half begins with the score at Everton 1, Sunderland 0.
43
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Everton leads 1-0 against Sunderland. Merlin Röhl scores for Everton with a left-footed shot from outside the box into the top right corner, assisted by Michael Keane.
42
Update Update
Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall of Everton won a free kick in defense.
41
Attempt Attempt
Beto from Everton missed a header from close range. The assist came from Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall's cross.
37
Corner Corner
James Tarkowski of Everton attempts a header from inside the six-yard box, but Robin Roefs of Sunderland makes a save in the left corner. The assist came from Vitalii Mykolenko.
37
Update Update
Foul committed by Merlin Röhl of Everton.
37
Update Update
Luke O'Nien from Sunderland won a free kick in defense.
37
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Everton after a concession by Robin Roefs.
35
Attempt Attempt
James Garner of Everton attempts an attack with a right-footed shot from outside the box, but it's saved by Sunderland's goalkeeper Robin Roefs, positioned in the center of the goal. The assist comes from Tim Iroegbunam.
30
Update Update
Lutsharel Geertruida from Sunderland won a free kick in defense.
30
Update Update
Foul committed by Merlin Röhl of Everton.
29
Update Update
Vitalii Mykolenko of Everton has won a free kick in defense.
28
Update Update
Foul committed by James Tarkowski of Everton.
28
Update Update
Noah Sadiki from Sunderland won a free kick on the left wing.
27
Attempt Attempt
Nordi Mukiele from Sunderland had a missed chance, shooting with his right foot from the right side of the box, but the ball went high.
25
Update Update
Foul committed by Tim Iroegbunam for Everton.
25
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Tim Iroegbunam of Everton receives a yellow card for a foul.
25
Update Update
Reinildo Mandava of Sunderland won a free kick in the attacking area.
25
Attempt Attempt
Luke O'Nien from Sunderland had a missed chance, heading the ball from the center of the box but it went to the left. The assist was from Nordi Mukiele.
23
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Sunderland: Luke O'Nien replaces Omar Alderete due to injury.
21
Update Update
There is a delay in the match due to an injury to Omar Alderete of Sunderland.
20
Attempt Attempt
Enzo Le Fée from Sunderland had a missed chance, shooting with his right foot from over 35 yards, but the shot went to the left after a fast break.
14
Update Update
Lutsharel Geertruida from Sunderland misses a chance, shooting with his right foot from outside the box, but the ball goes high.
9
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Everton after Lutsharel Geertruida concedes.
8
Update Update
Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall of Everton won a free kick in defense.
7
Attempt Attempt
Merlin Röhl's left-footed shot from outside the box is blocked.
5
Update Update
Merlin Röhl from Everton won a free kick on the left wing.
2
Update Update
Reinildo Mandava of Sunderland won a free kick in defense.
2
Update Update
Beto fouled Everton.

CONCLUSION

Sunderland delivered a composed comeback after trailing at the interval to defeat Everton 1-3 and claim all three points. Everton began brightly and held a halftime advantage but could not sustain pressure or convert their expected goal edge into further scores. Sunderland improved markedly after the break, exploiting spaces and finishing efficiently to turn the contest around. Balanced possession figures suggest the game was decided by moments of quality rather than territorial dominance. The absence of any dismissals kept both sides at full strength and allowed the tactical battle to unfold without numerical changes. This result illustrates how momentum shifts and clinical execution can outweigh pre-match metrics and team rankings in determining the winner.

Everton vs Sunderland preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

About BestPreviews Methodology & FAQ More Match Reports

How We Build This Analysis

BestPreviews combines tactical context, lineup quality, xG trends, and form data across competitions. Read the full methodology and FAQ.

Related Football Previews

Explore League Previews

Premier League, England View all league clusters View methodology and FAQ

Author

Daniels Zorge

Daniels Zorge covers football fixtures with a focus on tactical matchups, playing styles, and key details that shape each game.