Västerås SK vs AIK Prediction, Preview and Stats

Sweden flag 2026 Allsvenskan, Sweden
Iver Arena (Västerås) Sun, 17 May - 2:30 PM
Allsvenskan
Västerås SK Västerås SK
1 – 1
AIK AIK
Full Time Sun, 17 May 2:30 PM
Round 8 Regular Season
Goal
|
Goal

CONTEXT

The encounter between Västerås SK and AIK ended in a 1-1 draw with both sides finding the net before the interval. Västerås SK controlled 58 percent of possession against AIK's 42 percent yet could not convert their territorial edge into a victory. Expected goals stood at 1.57 for the home side and 0.63 for the visitors producing a differential of 0.94 that pointed toward a different outcome. The halftime score of 1-1 carried through the second period without further alteration. AIK entered as the stronger side according to pre-match assessment but the final result proved inconsistent with those projections. No dismissals occurred and second-half adjustments remained minimal throughout the fixture.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Västerås SK held 58 percent possession against AIK's 42 percent creating a clear structural imbalance in territorial control.
  • Efficiency shift: The efficiency shift remained in line with measured performance indicators across both teams.
  • xG alignment: The 1-1 draw did not align with xG figures of 1.57 for Västerås SK and 0.63 for AIK.
  • Market alignment: The result showed no alignment with pre-match expectations given the significant deviation recorded for AIK.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations indicated Västerås SK should have claimed victory on the basis of their 0.94 differential.
  • Event impact: The halftime score of 1-1 persisted unchanged with limited second-half events affecting the outcome.
  • Red card distortion: No red cards were issued resulting in zero distortion to team numbers or match flow.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

A. Aganovic

Sweden 25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

D. Yng

1st Assistant

Sweden

A. Sjöberg

2nd Assistant

Sweden

T. Dahlin

4th Official

Sweden

League averages

Allsvenskan Based on last 100 matches

Fouls / match 20.61
Yellow cards / match 3
Red cards / match 0.05
Penalties / match 0.18
Västerås SK A. Rubin
A. Rubin
VS
AIK J. Riveiro
J. Riveiro
1.14
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.14
0.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
GAIS Rank: 59 L
Hammarby Rank: 68 L
Brommapojkarna Rank: 49 W
Häcken Rank: 60 D
Sirius Rank: 63 L
Elfsborg Rank: 57 D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Djurgården Rank: 65 L
Elfsborg Rank: 57 D
Malmö FF Rank: 63 L
Degerfors Rank: 48 L
Kalmar Rank: 50 W
Brommapojkarna Rank: 49 D
0
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 0 - 2
2

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Västerås SK
29.2%
Draw
27.87%
Away AIK
42.93%

Movement

Changes since opening
Västerås SK
+20.69%
Draw
-61.33%
AIK
+40.65%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
40.46
56.11
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Västerås SK
AIK
Power Score
40.46
56.11
League Position
12
10
Global Rank
853
610

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Västerås SK — Opponent-weighted form score
AIK — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Västerås SK AIK

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Västerås SK

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

AIK

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Västerås SK ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy AIK
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
32.76
31.43
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
31.43
32.76
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Västerås SK +0.14 Efficiency Index
vs
AIK -0.14 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Västerås SK
AIK
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Västerås SK
vs
AIK
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Västerås SK AIK
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Västerås SK AIK
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
Västerås SK
AIK
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Västerås SK
vs
AIK
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Västerås SK AIK
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Västerås SK 0.27
AIK 0.25
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Västerås SK AIK
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Västerås SK 0.02
AIK 0.02
Västerås SK
AIK
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • AIK had peak pressure around 69'.
  • Västerås SK started the game with stronger pressure.
Västerås SK Pressure AIK Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: AIK reached the top pressure at 69' (58.30).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 2 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Västerås SK Västerås SK Home
2 matches
AIK AIK Away
Match Record
0
Wins
2
0
Draws
0
2
Losses
0
Goals
1
Goals Scored
3
3
Goals Conceded
1
-2
Goal Difference
+2

Data last updated: 2026-05-18T09:02:54+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-4-3
Match Formation 4-1-4-1
Pitch
K. Nordfeldt
Sweden
15 (C) K. Nordfeldt
S. Wilson
Substitution
Kenya
21 S. Wilson
I. Cissé
Ivory Coast
25 I. Cissé
A. Csongvai
Hungary
33 A. Csongvai
M. Thychosen
Denmark
17 M. Thychosen
Yannick Emilio Geiger
Substitution
46 Yannick Emilio Geiger
B. Celina
Kosovo
10 B. Celina
A. Ali
Substitution
Sweden
18 A. Ali
D. Beširović
Bosnia and Herzegovina
19 D. Beširović
T. Ayari
Substitution
Sweden
45 T. Ayari
K. Filling
Substitution
29 K. Filling

General Information

Date & Time :
May 17, 2026, 02:30 PM
Competition :
2026 Allsvenskan, Sweden · Round 8 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Iver Arena (Västerås)
Capacity :
7044
Attendance :
8619
Pitch Surface :
N/A
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Adi Aganovic
Daniel Yng
Anton Sjöberg
Teddy Dahlin

Statistics

Possession
Västerås SK
56%
AIK
44%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 1
3 Shots 5
60 Dangerous attacks 44
58 Possession 42
6 Corners 4
15 Free kicks 15
2 Yellow Cards 6

Match Overview

6 Successful Dribbles 5
19 Throwins 16
67 Successful Dribbles Percentage 42
9 Dribble Attempts 12
9 Goal Kicks 9
5 Substitutions 5
9 Goal Attempts 8
1 Assists 0
70 Ball Safe 81
1 Hit Woodwork 0
1 Injuries 1

Attacking

93 Attacks 84

Possession

5 Key Passes 4
11 Successful Long Passes 23
401 Successful Passes 272
490 Passes 357
82 Successful Passes Percentage 76
31 Successful Long Passes Percentage 37
35 Long Passes 63

Defensive

7 Interceptions 5
16 Tackles 7
51 Duels Won 35
4 Saves 2

Build-up

17 Total Crosses 14
4 Accurate Crosses 1

Discipline

15 Fouls 15
2 Offsides 0

Lineup

Referee : Adi Aganovic

Starting XI ▼

34
Elis Jäger
Elis Jäger Goalkeeper
7.11
2
Herman Magnusson
Herman Magnusson Defender
6.97
4
Philip Bonde
Philip Bonde Defender
6.34
18
Frédéric Nsabiyumva
Frédéric Nsabiyumva (C) Defender
6.58
21
Victor Wernersson
Victor Wernersson
Midfielder21'
6.73
3
Marcus Baggesen
Marcus Baggesen Midfielder
7.17
15
Jonathan Karlsson
Jonathan Karlsson
Defender66'
6.5
8
Mamadou Diagne
Mamadou Diagne Midfielder
7.23
11
Simon Gefvert
Simon Gefvert Midfielder
7.11
30
Mattias Hellisdal
Mattias Hellisdal Midfielder
6.87
10
Jonathan Ring
Jonathan Ring
Attacker67'
6.68
5
Karl Gunnarsson
Karl Gunnarsson Attacker
7.32
9
Mikkel Ladefoged
Mikkel Ladefoged Attacker
7.02
19
Jens Magnusson
Jens Magnusson Attacker
7.1
23
L. Sibelius
L. Sibelius
Midfielder90+4'
Referee : Adi Aganovic

Starting XI ▼

15
Kristoffer Nordfeldt
Kristoffer Nordfeldt (C) Goalkeeper
6.64
17
Mads Thychosen
Mads Thychosen Defender
6.39
21
Stanley Wilson
Stanley Wilson Defender
6.46
5
Lukas Bergquist
Lukas Bergquist
Defender70'
6.3
25
Ibrahim Cissé
Ibrahim Cissé Defender
6.67
33
Áron Csongvai
Áron Csongvai Defender
7.46
10
Bersant Celina
Bersant Celina Midfielder
6.55
18
Abdihakim Ali
Abdihakim Ali Midfielder
6.52
7
Amel Mujanic
Amel Mujanic
Midfielder59'
6.32
19
Dino Besirovic
Dino Besirovic Midfielder
6.52
45
Taha Ayari
Taha Ayari Midfielder
6.59
16
Sixten Gustafsson
Sixten Gustafsson
Attacker78'
6.39
46
Y. Geiger
Y. Geiger Midfielder
6.58
37
Ahmad Faqa
Ahmad Faqa
Defender77'
6.63
29
Kevin Filling
Kevin Filling Attacker
6.59
9
Erik Flataker
Erik Flataker
Attacker46'
6.78

Events

2ND-HALF
90+8'
Event
Amel Mujanic
Foul / 8th Yellowcard
Event
L. Sibelius → Jens Magnusson
10th Substitution
90+4'
89'
Event
Dino Besirovic
Foul / 7th Yellowcard
81'
Event
9th Substitution
78'
Event
Sixten Gustafsson → Taha Ayari
8th Substitution
77'
Event
Ahmad Faqa → Y. Geiger
7th Substitution
76'
Event
Y. Geiger
Foul / 6th Yellowcard
70'
Event
Lukas Bergquist → Stanley Wilson
6th Substitution
Event
Victor Wernersson
Foul / 5th Yellowcard
69'
Event
Jonathan Ring → Mattias Hellisdal
5th Substitution
67'
Event
Jonathan Karlsson → Marcus Baggesen
4th Substitution
66'
Event
Jens Magnusson
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
62'
59'
Event
Amel Mujanic → Abdihakim Ali
3rd Substitution
46'
Event
Erik Flataker → Kevin Filling
2nd Substitution
1ST-HALF
45+4'
Event
Áron Csongvai
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
Event
Marcus Baggesen
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
45'
Event
Victor Wernersson → Frédéric Nsabiyumva
1st Substitution
21'
20'
Event
Ibrahim Cissé
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
15'
Event
Kevin Filling
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
10'
Event
Taha Ayari
Foul / 1st Yellowcard

Match Commentary

90
Update Update
Melvin Ljungqvist comes on for Karl Gunnarsson.
90
Substitution Substitution
Substitution: Lucas Sibelius comes on for Jens Magnusson.
90
Attempt Attempt
Erik Hovden Flataker takes a shot with his head, but it's saved.
90
Attempt Attempt
Herman Magnusson takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
90
Attempt Attempt
Erik Hovden Flataker takes a shot with his head, but it's saved.
90
Attempt Attempt
Erik Hovden Flataker takes a shot with his head, but it's saved.
90
Attempt Attempt
Herman Magnusson's right-footed shot is blocked.
87
Attempt Attempt
Erik Hovden Flataker's header is saved.
78
Update Update
Sixten Gustafsson is on, and Taha Ayari is off.
77
Update Update
Ahmad Faqa comes on for Yannick Geiger.
77
Attempt Attempt
Herman Magnusson takes a right-footed shot but misses.
77
Attempt Attempt
Victor Wernersson's left-footed shot is blocked.
76
Attempt Attempt
The shot with the left foot hits the post.
71
Attempt Attempt
Jonathan Ring takes a right-footed shot, but it is saved.
70
Update Update
Lukas Bergqvist comes on for Stanley Wilson.
67
Substitution Substitution
Substitution: Jonathan Ring comes on for Mattias Hellisdal.
66
Update Update
Jonathan Karlsson is on, and Marcus Baggesen is off.
59
Update Update
Amel Mujanic is on, and Abdihakin Ali is off.
57
Attempt Attempt
Stanley Wilson takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
54
Attempt Attempt
Mamadou Ousmane Diagne takes a right-footed shot but misses.
51
Attempt Attempt
Bersant Celina takes a right-footed shot, but it is saved.
51
Attempt Attempt
Mads Thychosen takes a right-footed shot but misses.
49
Attempt Attempt
Stanley Wilson takes a right-footed shot but misses.
46
Update Update
Erik Hovden Flataker comes on for Kevin Filling.
45
Attempt Attempt
Marcus Baggesen takes a shot with his right foot and scores.
45
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Aron Csongvai scores, bringing the match to 1-1.
45
Attempt Attempt
Aron Csongvai scores with a right-footed shot.
43
Attempt Attempt
Taha Ayari's right-footed shot is saved.
34
Attempt Attempt
Karl Gunnarsson takes a left-footed shot but misses.
31
Attempt Attempt
Bersant Celina takes a left-footed shot but misses.
27
Attempt Attempt
Mikkel Ladefoged attempts a header but misses the shot.
25
Attempt Attempt
Yannick Geiger takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
24
Attempt Attempt
Kevin Filling takes a right-footed shot but misses.
21
Update Update
Victor Wernersson comes on for Frederic Nsabiyumva.
12
Attempt Attempt
Taha Ayari takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
8
Attempt Attempt
Mikkel Ladefoged takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
5
Attempt Attempt
Mamadou Ousmane Diagne takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.

CONCLUSION

Analysis of the 1-1 draw highlights how Västerås SK generated superior expected goals and maintained greater possession without securing the win. The outcome diverged from xG projections while remaining consistent with efficiency measures observed on the day. AIK absorbed pressure effectively despite lower ball dominance and lower xG creation. Absence of red cards preserved full squads for both teams and prevented any late structural shifts. The match demonstrated that actual results can depart from underlying metrics when finishing quality and defensive organization interact in specific ways. Continued evaluation of these patterns will clarify whether such deviations represent random variance or repeatable trends in future fixtures.

Västerås SK vs AIK preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

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Daniels Zorge

Daniels Zorge covers football fixtures with a focus on tactical matchups, playing styles, and key details that shape each game.