Baltika Kaliningrad vs Dinamo Moskva Prediction, Preview and Stats

Russia flag 2025/2026 Premier League, Russia
Complexe Sportif Jean Bianchi 1 Sun, 17 May - 3:00 PM
Premier League
Baltika Kaliningrad Baltika Kaliningrad
1 Winner 2
Dinamo Moskva DMO
Full Time Sun, 17 May 3:00 PM
Round 30 Regular Season
Derik Lacerda - 55'
Goal
|
Goal
K. Tyukavin - 71'
Arthur Gomes - 8'

CONTEXT

In a competitive encounter at the home ground, Baltika Kaliningrad faced off against Dinamo Moskva in what turned out to be a closely contested match. The visitors took the lead before halftime with a goal that gave them a 0-1 advantage at the break. Baltika fought back in the second half, managing to equalize temporarily, but Dinamo responded with another goal to secure the win. Possession was fairly even with Baltika holding 48 percent and Dinamo 52 percent. No red cards were issued throughout the game, allowing both sides to maintain their full squads on the pitch. The stronger team Dinamo Moskva emerged victorious with a final score of 1-2. This result highlighted their resilience and ability to control the game despite the home team's efforts.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Dinamo Moskva showed a significant structural deviation from the expected performance metrics.
  • Efficiency shift: The efficiency shift was in line with the overall match dynamics.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment remained inconclusive with no available expected goals data.
  • Market alignment: The outcome was market aligned as Dinamo Moskva secured the victory.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations could not be assessed due to unavailable metrics.
  • Event impact: The key events led to Dinamo Moskva overcoming the halftime deficit to win 2-1.
  • Red card distortion: Red card distortion had no influence as both teams finished with eleven players.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

N. Novikov

Russia 25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

K. Bolshakov

1st Assistant

Russia

E. Bolkhovitin

2nd Assistant

Russia

A. Mashlyakevich

4th Official

Russia

League averages

Premier League Based on last 100 matches

Fouls / match 28.15
Yellow cards / match 4.07
Red cards / match 0.25
Penalties / match 0.63
Baltika Kaliningrad A. Talalaev
A. Talalaev
VS
Dinamo Moskva P. Alpatov
P. Alpatov
1.29
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.79
0.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Lokomotiv Moskva Rank: 70 L
Rubin Kazan Rank: 63 L
Akron Rank: 54 L
Akhmat Grozny Rank: 59 D
Krasnodar Rank: 77 D
FK Nizjni Novgorod Rank: 51 D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Krasnodar Rank: 78 W
Lokomotiv Moskva Rank: 70 D
Sochi Rank: 51 W
Rubin Kazan Rank: 63 L
FK Nizjni Novgorod Rank: 51 D
Akron Rank: 53 W
0
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 1 - 2
2

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Baltika Kaliningrad
0%
Draw
0%
Away Dinamo Moskva
0%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
54.24
71.17
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Baltika Kaliningrad
Dinamo Moskva
Power Score
54.24
71.17
League Position
6
7
Global Rank
371
172

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Baltika Kaliningrad — Opponent-weighted form score
Dinamo Moskva — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Baltika Kaliningrad Dinamo Moskva

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Baltika Kaliningrad

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Dinamo Moskva

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Baltika Kaliningrad ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Dinamo Moskva
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
43.96
18.27
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
18.27
43.96
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Baltika Kaliningrad +2.83 Efficiency Index
vs
Dinamo Moskva -2.83 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Baltika Kaliningrad
Dinamo Moskva
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Baltika Kaliningrad ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Dinamo Moskva
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Baltika Kaliningrad Dinamo Moskva
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Baltika Kaliningrad Dinamo Moskva
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Baltika Kaliningrad
Dinamo Moskva
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Baltika Kaliningrad
vs
Dinamo Moskva
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Baltika Kaliningrad Dinamo Moskva
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Baltika Kaliningrad 0.29
Dinamo Moskva 0.27
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Baltika Kaliningrad Dinamo Moskva
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Baltika Kaliningrad 0.07
Dinamo Moskva 0.02
Baltika Kaliningrad
Dinamo Moskva
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • Baltika Kaliningrad had peak pressure around 20'.
  • DMO started the game with stronger pressure.
Baltika Kaliningrad Pressure DMO Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: Baltika Kaliningrad reached the top pressure at 20' (70.37).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 3 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Baltika Kaliningrad Baltika Kaliningrad Home
3 matches
Dinamo Moskva DMO Away
Match Record
0
Wins
2
1
Draws
1
2
Losses
0
Goals
3
Goals Scored
6
6
Goals Conceded
3
-3
Goal Difference
+3

Data last updated: 2026-05-18T00:02:36+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-4-3
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
E. Lyubakov
Russia
44 E. Lyubakov
S. Varatynov
Russia
2 S. Varatynov
E. Anderson Gomez
Panama
21 E. Anderson Gomez
N. Gassama
Substitution
France
4 N. Gassama
Y. Kovalev
Substitution
Belarus
11 Y. Kovalev
A. Mourid
Substitution
Morocco
5 A. Mourid
I. Belikov
Substitution
26 I. Belikov
M. Beveev
Russia
23 M. Beveev
M. Petrov
Russia
73 M. Petrov
D. Severino Lacerda
Substitution
Brazil
18 D. Severino Lacerda
N. Titkov
Russia
22 N. Titkov
Pitch
A. Lunev
Russia
99 A. Lunev
D. Skopintsev
Russia
7 D. Skopintsev
D. Loiola da Silva
Brazil
57 D. Loiola da Silva
N. Marichal
Uruguay
2 N. Marichal
L. Zaydenzal
Russia
56 L. Zaydenzal
D. Fomin
Substitution
Russia
74 D. Fomin
T. Marinkin
60 T. Marinkin
A. Gomes Lourenço
Brazil
11 A. Gomes Lourenço
V. Okishor
Substitution
Russia
88 V. Okishor
N. Ngamaleu
Substitution
Cameroon
13 N. Ngamaleu
K. Tyukavin
Substitution
Russia
70 K. Tyukavin

General Information

Date & Time :
May 17, 2026, 03:00 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Premier League, Russia · Round 30 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Complexe Sportif Jean Bianchi 1
Capacity :
35212
Attendance :
21626
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Nikita Novikov
Kirill Bolshakov
Egor Bolkhovitin
Aleksandr Mashlyakevich

Statistics

Possession
Baltika Kaliningrad
51%
DMO
49%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 2
2 Big Chances Created 2
6 Shots 4
62 Dangerous attacks 30
48 Possession 52
5 Corners 2
8 Free kicks 23
4 Yellow Cards 3

Match Overview

8 Successful Dribbles 6
50 Successful Dribbles Percentage 32
1 Assists 1
27 Throwins 29
16 Dribble Attempts 19
28 Successful Headers 32
1 Goal Kicks 5
5 Substitutions 4
9 Goal Attempts 4
72 Ball Safe 101
1 Injuries 1

Attacking

102 Attacks 92
1 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

66 Successful Passes Percentage 69
210 Successful Passes 251
318 Passes 362
85 Long Passes 62
35 Successful Long Passes 18
41 Successful Long Passes Percentage 29

Defensive

23 Tackles 12
69 Duels Won 72
2 Saves 5
8 Interceptions 7

Build-up

8 Accurate Crosses 2
26 Total Crosses 8

Discipline

24 Fouls 8
5 Offsides 0

Lineup

Referee : Nikita Novikov

Starting XI ▼

44
Egor Lyubakov
Egor Lyubakov Goalkeeper
2
S. Varatynov
S. Varatynov Defender
4
Nathan Gassama
Nathan Gassama Defender
68
Mikhail Ryadno
Mikhail Ryadno
Defender74'
21
Eduardo Anderson
Eduardo Anderson Defender
5
Aymane Mourid
Aymane Mourid Midfielder
15
T. Yenne
T. Yenne
Attacker46'
11
Yuriy Kovalev
Yuriy Kovalev Midfielder
77
E. Ćivić
E. Ćivić
Defender46'
23
Mingiyan Beveev
Mingiyan Beveev Midfielder
26
Ivan Belikov
Ivan Belikov Midfielder
8
Andrey Mendel
Andrey Mendel
Midfielder67'
18
Derik Lacerda
Derik Lacerda Attacker
90
Chinonso Offor
Chinonso Offor
Attacker67'
22
Nikolai Titkov
Nikolai Titkov Attacker
73
Maksim Petrov
Maksim Petrov Attacker
Referee : Nikita Novikov

Starting XI ▼

99
Andrey Lunev
Andrey Lunev Goalkeeper
2
Nicolás Marichal
Nicolás Marichal Defender
7
Dmitri Skopintsev
Dmitri Skopintsev Defender
56
Leon Zaydenzal
Leon Zaydenzal Defender
57
David Ricardo
David Ricardo Defender
11
Arthur Gomes
Arthur Gomes Midfielder
13
Nicolas Moumi Ngamaleu
Nicolas Moumi Ngamaleu Midfielder
91
Y. Gladyshev
Y. Gladyshev
Attacker58'
60
Timofey Marinkin
Timofey Marinkin Midfielder
74
Daniil Fomin
Daniil Fomin Midfielder
30
D. Aleksandrov
D. Aleksandrov
Midfielder86'
88
V. Okishor
V. Okishor Midfielder
17
U. Babaev
U. Babaev
Attacker64'
70
K. Tyukavin
K. Tyukavin Attacker
44
Rubens
Rubens
Defender86'

Events

2ND-HALF
90+2'
Event
Rubens
Foul / 7th Yellowcard
90+2'
Event
Nicolás Marichal
Foul / 6th Yellowcard
86'
Event
D. Aleksandrov → Daniil Fomin
8th Substitution
86'
Event
Rubens → K. Tyukavin
9th Substitution
Event
Andrey Mendel
Foul / 5th Yellowcard
80'
78'
Event
Timofey Marinkin
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
Event
Mikhail Ryadno → Nathan Gassama
7th Substitution
74'
71'
Event
K. Tyukavin
Right foot shot / 3rd Goal
Event
Andrey Mendel → Ivan Belikov
5th Substitution
67'
Event
Chinonso Offor → Derik Lacerda
6th Substitution
67'
64'
Event
U. Babaev → V. Okishor
4th Substitution
Event
Ivan Belikov
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
61'
58'
Event
Y. Gladyshev → Nicolas Moumi Ngamaleu
3rd Substitution
Event
Derik Lacerda
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
55'
Event
T. Yenne
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
50'
Event
T. Yenne → Aymane Mourid
2nd Substitution
46'
Event
E. Ćivić → Yuriy Kovalev
1st Substitution
46'
1ST-HALF
Event
Aymane Mourid
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
27'
8'
Event
Arthur Gomes
Right foot shot / 1st Goal

Match Commentary

90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Nicolas Marichal Perez receives a yellow card.
90
Attempt Attempt
Sergei Varatynov takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
90
Attempt Attempt
Eduardo Anderson's left-footed shot is blocked.
90
Update Update
Egor Lyubakov's header is blocked.
90
Attempt Attempt
Sergei Varatynov takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
86
Update Update
Rubens Antonio Dias comes on for Konstantin Tyukavin.
86
Update Update
Dmitry Aleksandrov comes on for Daniil Fomin.
84
Attempt Attempt
Mingiyan Beveev takes a right-footed shot but misses.
80
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Andrey Mendel receives a yellow card.
77
Attempt Attempt
Nicolas Marichal Perez attempts a header but misses the shot.
74
Update Update
Mikhail Ryadno replaces Nathan Gassama.
71
Attempt Attempt
Konstantin Tyukavin scores with a right-footed shot.
70
Attempt Attempt
Iaroslav Gladyshev's left-footed shot is blocked.
69
Attempt Attempt
Maksim Petrov takes a left-footed shot, but it is saved.
68
Attempt Attempt
Nikolai Titkov takes a right-footed shot but misses.
67
Update Update
Andrey Mendel replaces Ivan Belikov.
65
Attempt Attempt
Tenton Yenne takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
64
Update Update
Ulvi Babaev comes on for Victor Okishor.
61
Attempt Attempt
Sergei Varatynov takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
58
Update Update
Iaroslav Gladyshev comes on for Nicolas Moumi Ngamaleu.
57
Attempt Attempt
Eldar Civic takes a left-footed shot but misses.
56
Attempt Attempt
Tenton Yenne takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
49
Update Update
Sergei Varatynov's header is blocked.
47
Attempt Attempt
Konstantin Tyukavin takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
46
Update Update
Eldar Civic replaces Yuri Kovalev.
46
Update Update
Tenton Yenne replaces Aymane Mourid.
40
Attempt Attempt
Derik Lacerda takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
18
Attempt Attempt
Aymane Mourid takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
18
Attempt Attempt
Aymane Mourid's right-footed shot is saved.
18
Attempt Attempt
Aymane Mourid takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
17
Attempt Attempt
Aymane Mourid takes a right-footed shot, but it is saved.
14
Attempt Attempt
Mingiyan Beveev's right-footed shot is blocked.
8
Attempt Attempt
Arthur Gomes scores with a right-footed shot.
8
Attempt Attempt
Konstantin Tyukavin takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
6
Attempt Attempt
Victor Okishor takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.

CONCLUSION

Final score detail: Baltika Kaliningrad 1-2 Dinamo Moskva. Structural assessment: Dinamo Moskva exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

Baltika Kaliningrad vs Dinamo Moskva preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

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Daniels Zorge covers football fixtures with a focus on tactical matchups, playing styles, and key details that shape each game.