Rostov vs Zenit Prediction, Preview and Stats

Russia flag 2025/2026 Premier League, Russia
Stadion Central’nyj im. I.P. Chayka Sun, 17 May - 3:00 PM
Premier League
Rostov FCR
0 Winner 1
Zenit ZSP
Full Time Sun, 17 May 3:00 PM
Round 30 Regular Season
|
Goal
Aleksandr Sobolev - 14' (P)
Dmitriy Chistyakov 72' Red Card
|

CONTEXT

Rostov faced Zenit at home in a contest that finished 0-1 to the visitors. Zenit scored early to lead 0-1 at halftime and held firm thereafter. Rostov enjoyed 56 percent possession overall yet failed to find the net. The home side received one red card which shaped the later stages. Zenit as the stronger team managed the game effectively after establishing the advantage. Second half play reflected adjustments due to the numerical imbalance. The outcome aligned with pre-match indicators of team strength and produced a narrow away victory without further goals. Rostov pressed forward but lacked the clinical edge needed to equalize against a compact Zenit defense.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Final score: Rostov 0-1 Zenit. Zenit showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift remained in line with the stronger team profile.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment could not be assessed from available metrics.
  • Market alignment: Outcome proved consistent with market alignment data.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations stayed neutral absent concrete figures.
  • Event impact: Early goal delivered the decisive event impact for Zenit.
  • Red card distortion: Red card distortion limited Rostov options after halftime.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

S. Karasev

Russia 25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

A. Lunev

1st Assistant

Russia

R. Mukhtarov

2nd Assistant

Russia

I. Kaplenkov

4th Official

Russia

League averages

Premier League Based on last 100 matches

Fouls / match 28.15
Yellow cards / match 4.07
Red cards / match 0.25
Penalties / match 0.63
Rostov J. Alba Cabello
J. Alba Cabello
VS
Zenit S. Semak
S. Semak
1.07
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
2.5
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Akron Rank: 55 W
Dynamo Makhachkala Rank: 57 W
Orenburg Rank: 53 L
CSKA Moskva Rank: 70 D
Sochi Rank: 52 L
Spartak Moskva Rank: 72 D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Sochi Rank: 53 W
CSKA Moskva Rank: 70 W
Akhmat Grozny Rank: 59 W
Lokomotiv Moskva Rank: 69 D
Dynamo Makhachkala Rank: 57 W
Krasnodar Rank: 77 D
6
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
6 - 9 - 26
26

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Rostov
0%
Draw
0%
Away Zenit
0%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
60.7
81.05
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Rostov
Zenit
Power Score
60.7
81.05
League Position
10
1
Global Rank
455
53

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Rostov — Opponent-weighted form score
Zenit — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Rostov Zenit

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Rostov

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Zenit

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Rostov ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Zenit
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
12.23
25.68
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
25.68
12.23
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Rostov -1.48 Efficiency Index
vs
Zenit +1.48 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Rostov
Zenit
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Rostov ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Zenit
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Rostov Zenit
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 1.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Rostov Zenit
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
1.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Rostov
Zenit
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Rostov
vs
Zenit
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Rostov Zenit
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Rostov 0.14
Zenit 0.38
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Rostov Zenit
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Rostov 0.04
Zenit 0.00
Rostov
Zenit
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • ZSP had peak pressure around 12'.
  • ZSP started the game with stronger pressure.
FCR Pressure ZSP Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: ZSP reached the top pressure at 12' (86.13).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 41 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Rostov FCR Home
41 matches
Zenit ZSP Away
Match Record
6
Wins
26
9
Draws
9
26
Losses
6
Goals
35
Goals Scored
88
88
Goals Conceded
35
-53
Goal Difference
+53

Data last updated: 2026-05-18T01:01:06+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-5-2
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
R. Yatimov
Tajikistan
1 R. Yatimov
V. Melekhin
Russia
4 V. Melekhin
D. Chistyakov
Russia
78 D. Chistyakov
O. Sako
Ivory Coast
3 O. Sako
A. Langovich
Substitution
Russia
87 A. Langovich
I. Komarov
Substitution
Russia
62 I. Komarov
A. Mironov
Substitution
Russia
8 A. Mironov
K. Shchetinin
Substitution
Russia
10 K. Shchetinin
I. Vakhaniya
Russia
40 I. Vakhaniya
T. Suleymanov
Substitution
Russia
99 T. Suleymanov
M. Mohebi
Iran
9 M. Mohebi
Pitch
D. Adamov
Russia
16 D. Adamov
D. dos Santos Justino de Melo
Brazil
3 D. dos Santos Justino de Melo
M. Mota Filho
Brazil
33 M. Mota Filho
I. Diveev
Russia
78 I. Diveev
V. Drkušić
Slovenia
6 V. Drkušić
M. Valle da Silva
Brazil
8 M. Valle da Silva
W. Barrios Terán
Colombia
5 W. Barrios Terán
P. Silva dos Santos
Substitution
Brazil
20 P. Silva dos Santos
M. Glushenkov
Substitution
Russia
10 M. Glushenkov
L. Rosa da Silva
Substitution
Brazil
11 L. Rosa da Silva
A. Sobolev
Substitution
Russia
7 A. Sobolev

General Information

Date & Time :
May 17, 2026, 03:00 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Premier League, Russia · Round 30 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Stadion Central’nyj im. I.P. Chayka
Capacity :
2500
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Sergey Karasev
Aleksey Lunev
Rustam Mukhtarov
Igor Kaplenkov

Statistics

Possession
FCR
54%
ZSP
46%

Top Statistics

0 Goals 1
1 Big Chances Created 1
4 Shots 4
37 Dangerous attacks 26
56 Possession 44
2 Corners 8
11 Free kicks 10
4 Yellow Cards 1
1 Red Cards 0

Match Overview

30 Successful Dribbles Percentage 50
10 Dribble Attempts 8
3 Successful Dribbles 4
21 Throwins 13
5 Goal Kicks 6
21 Successful Headers 22
0 Penalties 1
0 Injuries 1
5 Substitutions 4
51 Ball Safe 53
3 Goal Attempts 7

Attacking

58 Attacks 50
1 Big Chances Missed 0

Possession

78 Successful Passes Percentage 72
304 Successful Passes 215
391 Passes 298
51 Successful Long Passes Percentage 47
81 Long Passes 73
41 Successful Long Passes 34

Defensive

11 Tackles 10
8 Interceptions 4
3 Saves 4
49 Duels Won 48

Build-up

12 Total Crosses 13
2 Accurate Crosses 3

Discipline

14 Fouls 15
1 Offsides 1

Lineup

Referee : Sergey Karasev

Starting XI ▼

1
Rustam Yatimov
Rustam Yatimov Goalkeeper
3
Oumar Sako
Oumar Sako Defender
4
Viktor Melekhin
Viktor Melekhin Defender
78
Dmitriy Chistyakov
Dmitriy Chistyakov Defender
8
Aleksey Mironov
Aleksey Mironov Midfielder
5
Danila Prokhin
Danila Prokhin
Defender67'
10
Kirill Shchetinin
Kirill Shchetinin Midfielder
18
Konstantin Kuchaev
Konstantin Kuchaev
Midfielder83'
40
Ilya Vakhania
Ilya Vakhania Midfielder
62
Ivan Komarov
Ivan Komarov Midfielder
19
Khoren Bayramyan
Khoren Bayramyan
Midfielder83'
87
Andrey Langovich
Andrey Langovich Midfielder
7
Ronaldo
Ronaldo
Attacker76'
9
Mohammad Mohebi
Mohammad Mohebi Attacker
99
Timur Suleymanov
Timur Suleymanov Attacker
69
Egor Golenkov
Egor Golenkov
Attacker76'
Referee : Sergey Karasev

Starting XI ▼

16
Denis Adamov
Denis Adamov Goalkeeper
3
Douglas Santos
Douglas Santos Defender
6
Vanja Drkusic
Vanja Drkusic Defender
33
Nino
Nino Defender
78
Igor Diveev
Igor Diveev Defender
5
Wilmar Barrios
Wilmar Barrios Midfielder
8
Wendel
Wendel Midfielder
10
Maksim Glushenkov
Maksim Glushenkov Midfielder
61
Daniil Kondakov
Daniil Kondakov
Midfielder89'
11
Luiz Henrique
Luiz Henrique Midfielder
21
Aleksandr Erokhin
Aleksandr Erokhin
Midfielder80'
20
Pedro
Pedro Midfielder
31
Gustavo Mantuan
Gustavo Mantuan
Midfielder67'
7
Aleksandr Sobolev
Aleksandr Sobolev Attacker
28
Nuraly Alip
Nuraly Alip
Defender67'

Events

2ND-HALF
89'
Event
Daniil Kondakov → Maksim Glushenkov
9th Substitution
Event
Danila Prokhin
Foul / 5th Yellowcard
88'
Event
Khoren Bayramyan → Ivan Komarov
7th Substitution
83'
Event
Konstantin Kuchaev → Kirill Shchetinin
8th Substitution
83'
80'
Event
Aleksandr Erokhin → Luiz Henrique
6th Substitution
77'
Event
Luiz Henrique
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
Event
Egor Golenkov → Timur Suleymanov
4th Substitution
76'
Event
Ronaldo → Andrey Langovich
5th Substitution
76'
Event
Dmitriy Chistyakov
Card adjusted
72'
Event
Dmitriy Chistyakov
Violent conduct / 1st Redcard
72'
Event
Danila Prokhin → Aleksey Mironov
3rd Substitution
67'
67'
Event
Gustavo Mantuan → Pedro
2nd Substitution
67'
Event
Nuraly Alip → Aleksandr Sobolev
1st Substitution
Event
Kirill Shchetinin
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
52'
1ST-HALF
14'
Event
Aleksandr Sobolev
Right foot shot / 1st Penalty
Event
Aleksey Mironov
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
13'
Event
Aleksey Mironov
Penalty awarded
12'
12'
Event
Pedro
Penalty awarded
Event
Mohammad Mohebi
Argument / 1st Yellowcard
10'

Match Commentary

89
Attempt Attempt
Maksim Glushenkov's left-footed shot is blocked.
89
Update Update
Daniil Kondakov replaces Maksim Glushenkov.
86
Attempt Attempt
Konstantin Kuchaev takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
85
Attempt Attempt
Egor Golenkov's header is saved.
84
Update Update
Konstantin Kuchaev replaces Kirill Shchetinin.
83
Update Update
Khoren Bayramyan is on, and Ivan Komarov is off.
80
Update Update
Aleksandr Erokhin comes on for Luiz Henrique Andre Rosa da Silva.
76
Update Update
Ronaldo Cesar Soares dos Santos is on, and Andrey Langovich is off.
76
Update Update
Egor Golenkov comes on for Timur Suleymanov.
75
Attempt Attempt
Douglas dos Santos Justino de Melo's header is saved.
72
Update Update
The VAR decision has resulted in a change of card for Dmitriy Chistyakov.
67
Update Update
Danila Prokhin is on, and Alexey Mironov is off.
67
Update Update
Gustavo Mantuan replaces Pedro Henrique Silva dos Santos.
67
Update Update
Nuraly Alip replaces Alexander Sobolev.
62
Attempt Attempt
Alexander Sobolev takes a right-footed shot but misses.
45
Attempt Attempt
Mohammad Mohebi's right-footed shot is saved.
45
Attempt Attempt
Mohammad Mohebi takes a right-footed shot, but it is saved.
44
Attempt Attempt
Ilya Vakhania attempts a header but misses the shot.
44
Attempt Attempt
Mohammad Mohebi takes a right-footed shot, but it is saved.
40
Attempt Attempt
Wilmar Enrique Barrios Teheran takes a right-footed shot but misses.
40
Attempt Attempt
Marcus Wendel Valle da Silva takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
33
Attempt Attempt
Andrey Langovich's header is saved.
23
Attempt Attempt
Maksim Glushenkov takes a right-footed shot but misses.
14
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal in the penalty shootout! Alexander Sobolev scores, making it 0-1.
14
Attempt Attempt
Shot from Alexander Sobolev with his right foot finds the back of the net.
12
Update Update
VAR decision: a penalty is awarded for Alexey Mironov.
12
Update Update
VAR decision results in a penalty awarded to Alexey Mironov.
10
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Mohammad Mohebi receives a yellow card.
9
Attempt Attempt
Alexander Sobolev takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
1
Update Update
Kick-off! The referee is Sergey Karasev.

CONCLUSION

Final score detail: Rostov 0-1 Zenit. Structural assessment: Zenit exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Structural distortion: The match was materially influenced by red card(s), altering baseline dynamics. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

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Alf Indseth

Alf Indseth writes football-focused analysis that looks beyond match results to explore form, value, and market context.