Istra 1961 vs Rijeka Prediction, Preview and Stats

Croatia flag 2025/2026 1. HNL, Croatia
Stadion Aldo Drosina Sun, 17 May - 4:45 PM
1. HNL
Istra 1961 Istra 1961
0 – 0
Rijeka Rijeka
Full Time Sun, 17 May 4:45 PM
Round 35 Regular Season
|
Red Card Christian Ouguehi Legbo 57'

CONTEXT

Match is finished. Istra 1961 0–0 Rijeka. The match ended in a draw. Rijeka showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels. The end result diverged from the pre-match projection. Possession was 50%–50%. The match featured at least one red card, which may have affected the flow of the game.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Final score: Istra 1961 0-0 Rijeka. Rijeka showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: Red card(s) affected the match (Classify).
  • Red card distortion: Classify as red card distortion.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

A. Terzić

Croatia 25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

V. Vidović

1st Assistant

Croatia

P. Tkalčević

2nd Assistant

Croatia

Luka Slišković

4th Official

Croatia

League averages

1. HNL Based on last 100 matches

Fouls / match 22.92
Yellow cards / match 3.27
Red cards / match 0.08
Penalties / match 0.32
Istra 1961 K. Režić
K. Režić
VS
Rijeka V. Sánchez del Amo
V. Sánchez del Amo
1.1
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.67
1 i
Last 6 Opponents
Osijek Rank: 63 W
Slaven Koprivnica Rank: 62 W
Gorica Rank: 61 L
Dinamo Zagreb Rank: 82 L
Vukovar Rank: 55 L
Lokomotiva Zagreb Rank: 63 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Vukovar Rank: 57 W
Lokomotiva Zagreb Rank: 64 W
Hajduk Split Rank: 71 D
Varaždin Rank: 66 L
Dinamo Zagreb Rank: 82 D
Osijek Rank: 61 L
7
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
7 - 15 - 42
42

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Istra 1961
18.87%
Draw
25.01%
Away Rijeka
56.12%

Movement

Changes since opening
Istra 1961
+12.68%
Draw
-63.35%
Rijeka
+50.66%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
63.62
70.64
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Istra 1961
Rijeka
Power Score
63.62
70.64
League Position
5
4
Global Rank
365
184

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Istra 1961 — Opponent-weighted form score
Rijeka — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Istra 1961 Rijeka

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Istra 1961

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Rijeka

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Istra 1961 ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Rijeka
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
28.70
19.30
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
19.30
28.70
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Istra 1961 +0.94 Efficiency Index
vs
Rijeka -0.94 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Istra 1961
Rijeka
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Istra 1961 ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Rijeka
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Istra 1961 Rijeka
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Istra 1961 Rijeka
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Istra 1961
Rijeka
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Istra 1961
vs
Rijeka
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Istra 1961 Rijeka
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Istra 1961 0.16
Rijeka 0.13
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Istra 1961 Rijeka
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Istra 1961 0.00
Rijeka 0.00
Istra 1961
Rijeka
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • Istra 1961 had peak pressure around 62'.
  • Rijeka started the game with stronger pressure.
Istra 1961 Pressure Rijeka Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: Istra 1961 reached the top pressure at 62' (75.40).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 64 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Istra 1961 Istra 1961 Home
64 matches
Rijeka Rijeka Away
Match Record
7
Wins
42
15
Draws
15
42
Losses
7
Goals
45
Goals Scored
120
120
Goals Conceded
45
-75
Goal Difference
+75

Data last updated: 2026-05-18T09:05:18+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-4-2-1
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
F. Kolić
Croatia
1 F. Kolić
F. Taraba
Bosnia and Herzegovina
24 F. Taraba
R. Kumar
Croatia
38 R. Kumar
S. Miettinen
Finland
16 S. Miettinen
A. Kadušić
Substitution
Bosnia and Herzegovina
97 A. Kadušić
A. Mauric
Substitution
Croatia
8 A. Mauric
J. Radošević
Croatia
5 (C) J. Radošević
N. Šepić
Substitution
Croatia
13 N. Šepić
S. Lončar
Bosnia and Herzegovina
10 S. Lončar
D. Ahmeti
Substitution
Croatia
20 D. Ahmeti
S. Prevljak
Bosnia and Herzegovina
9 S. Prevljak
Pitch
A. Todorović
Serbia
99 A. Todorović
C. Legbo Ouguehi
Ivory Coast
24 C. Legbo Ouguehi
M. Devetak
Serbia
34 M. Devetak
A. Majstorović
Croatia
45 (C) A. Majstorović
A. Oreč
Croatia
22 A. Oreč
A. Barco Del Solar
Peru
55 A. Barco Del Solar
B. Pavić
Croatia
66 B. Pavić
A. Gojak
Bosnia and Herzegovina
14 A. Gojak
T. Fruk
Croatia
10 T. Fruk
M. Ndockyt
Substitution
Republic of the Congo
20 M. Ndockyt
D. Adu-Adjei
England
18 D. Adu-Adjei

General Information

Date & Time :
May 17, 2026, 04:45 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 1. HNL, Croatia · Round 35 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Stadion Aldo Drosina
Capacity :
9800
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Ante Terzić
Vice Vidović
Patrik Tkalčević
Luka Slišković

Statistics

Possession
Istra 1961
50%
Rijeka
50%

Top Statistics

4 Big Chances Created 1
7 Shots 6
67 Dangerous attacks 53
50 Possession 50
7 Corners 4
11 Free kicks 16
2 Yellow Cards 2
0 Red Cards 1

Match Overview

21 Throwins 22
22 Successful Dribbles Percentage 67
2 Successful Dribbles 4
9 Dribble Attempts 6
7 Goal Kicks 8
2 Hit Woodwork 1
4 Substitutions 1

Attacking

110 Attacks 108
4 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

284 Successful Passes 280
38 Successful Long Passes 22
55 Successful Long Passes Percentage 28
69 Long Passes 79
80 Successful Passes Percentage 75
355 Passes 372
7 Key Passes 5

Defensive

36 Duels Won 51
1 Interceptions 5
8 Tackles 16
1 Saves 1

Build-up

23 Total Crosses 13
4 Accurate Crosses 3

Discipline

16 Fouls 11
2 Offsides 1

Lineup

Referee : Ante Terzić

Starting XI ▼

1
Franko Kolic
Franko Kolic Goalkeeper
6.88
16
Samuli Miettinen
Samuli Miettinen Defender
7.32
24
Filip Taraba
Filip Taraba Defender
7.04
38
Raul Kumar
Raul Kumar Defender
7.06
5
Josip Radosevic
Josip Radosevic (C) Midfielder
7.31
10
Stjepan Loncar
Stjepan Loncar Midfielder
6.83
13
Niko Šepić
Niko Šepić Midfielder
6.7
26
Marcel Heister
Marcel Heister
Defender72'
6.33
97
Advan Kadusic
Advan Kadusic Midfielder
6.77
11
Silvio Gorican
Silvio Gorican
Attacker62'
6.71
8
Antonio Mauric
Antonio Mauric Attacker
6.44
7
Vinko Rozic
Vinko Rozic
Attacker72'
6.28
9
Smail Prevljak
Smail Prevljak Attacker
6.47
20
Dukan Ahmeti
Dukan Ahmeti Attacker
6.58
30
Nik Skafar Zuzic
Nik Skafar Zuzic
Attacker83'
6.57
Referee : Ante Terzić

Starting XI ▼

99
Aleksa Todorović
Aleksa Todorović Goalkeeper
7.18
22
Ante Orec
Ante Orec Defender
6.75
24
Christian Ouguehi Legbo
Christian Ouguehi Legbo Defender
6.41
34
Mladen Devetak
Mladen Devetak Defender
6.78
45
Ante Majstorovic
Ante Majstorovic (C) Defender
6.38
10
Toni Fruk
Toni Fruk Midfielder
7.41
14
Amer Gojak
Amer Gojak Midfielder
6.78
20
Merveil Ndockyt
Merveil Ndockyt Midfielder
6.74
23
Justas Lasickas
Justas Lasickas
Defender62'
6.7
55
Alfonso Daniel Barco del Solar
Alfonso Daniel Barco del Solar Midfielder
7.05
66
Branko Pavic
Branko Pavic Midfielder
6.81
18
Daniel Adu-Adjei
Daniel Adu-Adjei Attacker
6.73

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Marcel Heister
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
84'
Event
Nik Skafar Zuzic → Dukan Ahmeti
5th Substitution
83'
Event
Marcel Heister → Niko Šepić
3rd Substitution
72'
Event
Vinko Rozic → Antonio Mauric
4th Substitution
72'
Event
Silvio Gorican → Advan Kadusic
1st Substitution
62'
62'
Event
Justas Lasickas → Merveil Ndockyt
2nd Substitution
57'
Event
Christian Ouguehi Legbo
Foul / 1st Redcard
57'
Event
Christian Ouguehi Legbo
Card adjusted
1ST-HALF
43'
Event
Branko Pavic
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
43'
Event
Alfonso Daniel Barco del Solar
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
Event
Smail Prevljak
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
35'

Match Commentary

90
Attempt Attempt
Daniel Adu Adjei takes a shot with his right foot, but it hits the post.
85
Attempt Attempt
Raul Kumar takes a header shot but misses.
84
Attempt Attempt
Smail Prevljak takes a right-footed shot, but it is saved.
84
Attempt Attempt
Smail Prevljak takes a right-footed shot, but it is saved.
83
Update Update
Nik Skafar Zuzic is on, and Dukan Ahmeti is off.
82
Attempt Attempt
Dukan Ahmeti takes a right-footed shot but misses.
73
Update Update
Vinko Rozic comes on for Antonio Mauric.
72
Substitution Substitution
Substitution: Marcel Heister comes on for Niko Sepic.
69
Attempt Attempt
Niko Sepic takes a left-footed shot but misses.
62
Update Update
Silvio Gorican comes on for Advan Kadusic.
62
Update Update
Justas Lasickas is on, and Merveille Ndockyt is off.
60
Attempt Attempt
Samuli Miettinen takes a shot with his head, but it hits the post.
58
Red Card Red Card Important
Dimitri Legbo receives a red card.
53
Attempt Attempt
Toni Fruk takes a right-footed shot, but it is saved.
51
Attempt Attempt
Dukan Ahmeti takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
50
Attempt Attempt
Smail Prevljak takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
43
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Alfonso Barco receives a yellow card.
42
Attempt Attempt
Amer Gojak takes a right-footed shot but misses.
41
Attempt Attempt
Smail Prevljak takes a right-footed shot but misses.
35
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Smail Prevljak receives a yellow card.
30
Attempt Attempt
Stjepan Loncar's left-footed shot is blocked.
26
Attempt Attempt
Daniel Adu Adjei attempts a header but misses the shot.
23
Attempt Attempt
Toni Fruk takes a right-footed shot but misses.
16
Attempt Attempt
Josip Radosevic takes a right-footed shot but misses.
6
Attempt Attempt
Amer Gojak's right-footed shot is blocked.
6
Attempt Attempt
Merveille Ndockyt takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.

CONCLUSION

Final score detail: Istra 1961 0-0 Rijeka. Structural assessment: Rijeka exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Structural distortion: The match was materially influenced by red card(s), altering baseline dynamics. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.

Istra 1961 vs Rijeka preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

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Alf Indseth

Alf Indseth writes football-focused analysis that looks beyond match results to explore form, value, and market context.