Athletic Club vs Celta de Vigo Prediction, Preview and Stats

Spain flag 2025/2026 La Liga, Spain
San Mamés Barria Sun, 17 May - 5:00 PM
La Liga
Athletic Club ATH
1 – 1
Celta de Vigo CEL
Full Time Sun, 17 May 5:00 PM
Round 37 Regular Season
Goal
|
Goal
Williot Swedberg - 4'

CONTEXT

Match is finished. Athletic Club 1–1 Celta de Vigo. The match ended in a draw. Celta de Vigo showed a moderate deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels. The end result aligned with the pre-match projection. Possession was 58%–42%.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Final score: Athletic Club 1-1 Celta de Vigo. Celta de Vigo showed a moderate deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

I. Díaz de Mera Escuderos

Spain 25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

D. Santaursula Aguado

1st Assistant

Spain

R. Campo Hernández

2nd Assistant

Spain

I. Irurtzun Artola

4th Official

Spain

League averages

La Liga Based on last 100 matches

Fouls / match 21.03
Yellow cards / match 3.88
Red cards / match 0.21
Penalties / match 0.27
Athletic Club E. Valverde
E. Valverde
VS
Celta de Vigo C. Giráldez González
C. Giráldez González
1.13
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.54
1 i
Last 6 Opponents
Espanyol Rank: 73 L
Valencia Rank: 77 L
Deportivo Alavés Rank: 76 W
Atlético Madrid Rank: 88 L
Osasuna Rank: 77 W
Villarreal Rank: 83 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1 i
Last 6 Opponents
Levante Rank: 75 L
Atlético Madrid Rank: 89 W
Elche Rank: 75 W
Villarreal Rank: 82 L
FC Barcelona Rank: 96 L
Real Oviedo Rank: 71 L
17
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
17 - 8 - 10
10

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Athletic Club
4.93%
Draw
91.84%
Away Celta de Vigo
3.23%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
76.54
79.62
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Athletic Club
Celta de Vigo
Power Score
76.54
79.62
League Position
10
6
Global Rank
95
63

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Athletic Club — Opponent-weighted form score
Celta de Vigo — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Athletic Club Celta de Vigo

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Athletic Club

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Celta de Vigo

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —
Possession Efficiency data not available for this match.

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Athletic Club ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Celta de Vigo
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Athletic Club Celta de Vigo
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Athletic Club Celta de Vigo
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Athletic Club
Celta de Vigo
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Athletic Club
vs
Celta de Vigo
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Athletic Club Celta de Vigo
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Athletic Club 0.00
Celta de Vigo 0.00
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Athletic Club Celta de Vigo
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Athletic Club 0.00
Celta de Vigo 0.00
Athletic Club
Celta de Vigo
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • ATH had peak pressure around 61'.
  • CEL started the game with stronger pressure.
ATH Pressure CEL Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: ATH reached the top pressure at 61' (98.21).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 35 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Athletic Club ATH Home
35 matches
Celta de Vigo CEL Away
Match Record
17
Wins
10
8
Draws
8
10
Losses
17
Goals
48
Goals Scored
38
38
Goals Conceded
48
+10
Goal Difference
-10

Data last updated: 2026-05-17T16:45:38+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 3-4-3
Pitch
U. Simón Mendibil
Spain
1 U. Simón Mendibil
A. Gorosabel Espinosa
Spain
2 A. Gorosabel Espinosa
Y. Álvarez López
Spain
5 Y. Álvarez López
A. Laporte
Spain
14 A. Laporte
Y. Berchiche Izeta
Spain
17 Y. Berchiche Izeta
I. Ruiz de Galarreta Etxeberria
Spain
16 I. Ruiz de Galarreta Etxeberria
M. Jauregizar Alboniga
Substitution
Spain
18 M. Jauregizar Alboniga
I. Williams Arthuer
Substitution
Ghana
9 I. Williams Arthuer
U. Gómez Etxebarria
Substitution
Spain
20 U. Gómez Etxebarria
A. Berenguer Remiro
Substitution
Spain
7 A. Berenguer Remiro
G. Guruzeta Rodríguez
Substitution
Spain
11 G. Guruzeta Rodríguez
Pitch
I. Radu
Romania
13 I. Radu
M. Alonso Mendoza
Spain
20 M. Alonso Mendoza
Y. Lago Amil
Spain
29 Y. Lago Amil
J. Rodríguez Galiano
Spain
32 J. Rodríguez Galiano
S. Carreira Vilariño
Spain
5 S. Carreira Vilariño
Ilaix Moriba
Guinea
6 Ilaix Moriba
F. López González
Substitution
Spain
8 F. López González
J. Rueda García
Substitution
Spain
17 J. Rueda García
W. Swedberg
Substitution
Sweden
19 W. Swedberg
B. Iglesias Quintas
Substitution
Spain
7 B. Iglesias Quintas
F. Jutlgà Blanc
Substitution
Spain
9 F. Jutlgà Blanc

General Information

Date & Time :
May 17, 2026, 05:00 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 La Liga, Spain · Round 37 · Regular Season
Stadium :
San Mamés Barria
Capacity :
53289
Attendance :
45105
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Diego Santaursula Aguado
Isidro Díaz de Mera Escuderos
Rubén Campo Hernández
Imanol Irurtzun Artola

Statistics

Possession
ATH
59%
CEL
41%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 1
3 Big Chances Created 1
27 Shots 3
87 Dangerous attacks 13
58 Possession 42
5 Corners 0
11 Free kicks 14
2 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

24 Throwins 17
21 Successful Headers 9
36 Successful Dribbles Percentage 67
19 Goal Attempts 2
1 Assists 1
4 Successful Dribbles 6
86 Ball Safe 97
11 Dribble Attempts 9
1 Goal Kicks 16
1 Injuries 3
5 Substitutions 5

Attacking

157 Attacks 57
2 Big Chances Missed 0

Possession

448 Successful Passes 308
527 Passes 391
27 Successful Long Passes 17
56 Long Passes 59
48 Successful Long Passes Percentage 29
85 Successful Passes Percentage 79
17 Key Passes 3

Defensive

12 Interceptions 8
47 Duels Won 46
10 Tackles 18
1 Saves 8

Build-up

42 Total Crosses 3
13 Accurate Crosses 1

Discipline

14 Fouls 11
1 Offsides 4

Lineup

Referee : Isidro Díaz de Mera Escuderos

Starting XI ▼

1
Unai Simón
Unai Simón Goalkeeper
6.78
2
Andoni Gorosabel
Andoni Gorosabel Defender
6.6
5
Yeray Álvarez
Yeray Álvarez Defender
6.55
14
Aymeric Laporte
Aymeric Laporte Defender
6.86
17
Yuri Berchiche
Yuri Berchiche Defender
6.94
7
Álex Berenguer
Álex Berenguer Midfielder
6.86
22
Nico Serrano
Nico Serrano
Attacker82'
6.66
9
Iñaki Williams
Iñaki Williams Midfielder
6.62
25
Urko Izeta
Urko Izeta
Attacker86'
6.53
16
Iñigo Ruiz de Galarreta
Iñigo Ruiz de Galarreta Midfielder
6.85
18
Mikel Jauregizar
Mikel Jauregizar Midfielder
6.8
30
Alejandro Rego
Alejandro Rego
Midfielder71'
6.64
20
Unai Gómez
Unai Gómez Midfielder
6.52
23
Robert Navarro
Robert Navarro
Midfielder46'
6.7
11
Gorka Guruzeta
Gorka Guruzeta Attacker
6.95
21
Maroan Sannadi
Maroan Sannadi
Attacker82'
6.62
Referee : Isidro Díaz de Mera Escuderos

Starting XI ▼

13
Ionuț Radu
Ionuț Radu Goalkeeper
6.85
20
Marcos Alonso
Marcos Alonso Defender
6.99
29
Yoel Lago
Yoel Lago Defender
6.65
32
Javi Rodríguez
Javi Rodríguez Defender
6.71
5
Sergio Carreira
Sergio Carreira Midfielder
6.77
6
Ilaix Moriba
Ilaix Moriba Midfielder
6.8
8
Fer López
Fer López Midfielder
6.71
15
Matías Vecino
Matías Vecino
Midfielder90+1'
6.67
17
Javi Rueda
Javi Rueda Midfielder
6.8
3
Óscar Mingueza
Óscar Mingueza
Defender46'
6.9
7
Borja Iglesias
Borja Iglesias Attacker
6.9
10
Iago Aspas
Iago Aspas
Attacker59'
6.99
9
Ferran Jutglà
Ferran Jutglà Attacker
6.92
18
Pablo Durán
Pablo Durán
Attacker59'
6.66
19
Williot Swedberg
Williot Swedberg Attacker
6.75
23
Hugo Álvarez
Hugo Álvarez
Midfielder74'
6.77

Events

2ND-HALF
90+1'
Event
Matías Vecino → Fer López
10th Substitution
Event
Urko Izeta → Iñaki Williams
9th Substitution
86'
Event
Maroan Sannadi → Gorka Guruzeta
7th Substitution
82'
Event
Nico Serrano → Álex Berenguer
8th Substitution
82'
74'
Event
Hugo Álvarez → Williot Swedberg
6th Substitution
Event
Alejandro Rego → Mikel Jauregizar
5th Substitution
71'
Event
Aymeric Laporte
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
68'
59'
Event
Pablo Durán → Ferran Jutglà
4th Substitution
59'
Event
Iago Aspas → Borja Iglesias
3rd Substitution
Event
Iñaki Williams
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
52'
Event
Robert Navarro → Unai Gómez
2nd Substitution
46'
46'
Event
Óscar Mingueza → Javi Rueda
1st Substitution
1ST-HALF
42'
Event
Ionuț Radu
Time wasting / 3rd Yellowcard
Event
Yuri Berchiche
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
38'
10'
Event
Javi Rueda
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
4'
Event
Williot Swedberg
Left foot shot / 1st Goal

Match Commentary

90
Attempt Attempt
Yeray Alvarez Lopez attempts a header but misses the shot.
90
Attempt Attempt
Urko Izeta takes a header but misses the shot.
90
Attempt Attempt
Nico Serrano's left-footed shot is saved.
90
Update Update
Matias Vecino comes on for Fernando López González.
90
Attempt Attempt
Yeray Alvarez Lopez attempts a header but misses the shot.
89
Attempt Attempt
Yuri Berchiche's left-footed shot is blocked.
86
Update Update
Urko Izeta comes on for Inaki Williams.
82
Update Update
Maroan Harrouch Sannadi comes on for Gorka Guruzeta Rodriguez.
82
Update Update
Nico Serrano comes on for Alejandro Berenguer Remiro.
81
Attempt Attempt
Inaki Williams takes a shot with his right foot, but it is blocked.
80
Attempt Attempt
Fernando López González takes a left-footed shot, but it's blocked.
79
Attempt Attempt
Inaki Williams takes a shot with his right foot, but it's saved.
74
Update Update
Hugo Alvarez Antunez is on, and Williot Swedberg is off.
71
Update Update
Alejandro Rego replaces Mikel Jauregizar.
68
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Aymeric Laporte receives a yellow card.
63
Attempt Attempt
Inaki Williams takes a shot with his right foot but misses.
59
Update Update
Iago Aspas Juncal comes on for Borja Iglesias Quintas.
59
Update Update
Pablo Duran replaces Ferran Jutgla Blanch.
57
Update Update
Gorka Guruzeta Rodriguez's header is blocked.
54
Attempt Attempt
Inaki Williams takes a shot with his right foot, but it misses.
52
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Inaki Williams scores to equalize for Dannis, making it 1-1, assisted by Yuri Berchiche.
52
Attempt Attempt
Inaki Williams takes a shot with his right foot and scores.
51
Update Update
Yuri Berchiche takes a header, but it misses the target.
48
Attempt Attempt
Mikel Jauregizar takes a right-footed shot but misses.
48
Attempt Attempt
Inaki Williams takes a left-footed shot but misses.
46
Update Update
Oscar Mingueza replaces Javier Rueda.
46
Update Update
Robert Navarro replaces Unai Gomez.
45
Attempt Attempt
Mikel Jauregizar takes a right-footed shot but misses.
45
Attempt Attempt
Gorka Guruzeta Rodriguez takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
45
Attempt Attempt
Fernando López González takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
45
Attempt Attempt
Mikel Jauregizar takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
42
Attempt Attempt
Unai Gomez takes a left-footed shot but misses.
42
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Ionut Andrei Radu receives a yellow card.
41
Attempt Attempt
Mikel Jauregizar takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
38
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yuri Berchiche receives a yellow card.
37
Attempt Attempt
Unai Gomez takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
33
Attempt Attempt
Shot by Alejandro Berenguer Remiro with his left foot, but it misses the target.
28
Attempt Attempt
Unai Gomez takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
22
Attempt Attempt
Inaki Williams took a shot, but Dannis made a save.
22
Attempt Attempt
Inaki Williams takes a shot, but Dannis makes the save.
21
Attempt Attempt
Unai Gomez takes a shot with his head, but it's saved.
20
Attempt Attempt
Gorka Guruzeta Rodriguez attempts a header but misses the shot.
18
Attempt Attempt
Gorka Guruzeta Rodriguez takes a right-footed shot but misses.
10
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Javier Rueda receives a yellow card.
5
Attempt Attempt
Williot Swedberg scores with a left-footed shot.
4
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Williot Swedberg scores, making it 1-0.
1
Update Update
Kick-off! The referee is Isidro Díaz de Mera Escuderos.

CONCLUSION

Final score detail: Athletic Club 1-1 Celta de Vigo. Structural assessment: Celta de Vigo exhibited a moderate deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

Athletic Club vs Celta de Vigo preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

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Alf Indseth

Alf Indseth writes football-focused analysis that looks beyond match results to explore form, value, and market context.