Rayo Vallecano vs Villarreal Prediction, Preview and Stats

Spain flag 2025/2026 La Liga, Spain
Estadio de Vallecas Sun, 17 May - 5:00 PM
La Liga
Rayo Vallecano RAY
2 Winner 0
Villarreal VIL
Full Time Sun, 17 May 5:00 PM
Round 37 Regular Season
Alexandre Zurawski - 47'
Sergio Camello - 28'
Goal
|

CONTEXT

Rayo Vallecano secured a 2-0 victory over Villarreal in a home match that featured a first-half lead of 1-0 at the break. The home side controlled 53 percent of possession while limiting the visitors to 47 percent. Villarreal entered as the stronger team yet could not overcome the deficit. Rayo added a second goal after halftime to seal the result. No red cards were shown to either side during the contest. The outcome represented a significant deviation from pre-match projections with the home team achieving the win. The match unfolded without major interruptions and concluded with Rayo claiming all three points.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Rayo Vallecano achieved a significant structural deviation by winning against the stronger Villarreal side.
  • Efficiency shift: The efficiency shift remained in line with observed performance levels throughout the match.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment could not be assessed because expected goals data was unavailable.
  • Market alignment: The final result stayed aligned with market projections for the fixture.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations were not available in the provided match statistics.
  • Event impact: The opening goal before halftime carried substantial event impact on the eventual 2-0 score.
  • Red card distortion: Absence of red cards produced no red card distortion to the match dynamics.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

R. De Burgos Bengoetxea

Spain 25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

I. De Francisco Grijalba

1st Assistant

Spain

A. Pérez de Mendiola González de Durana

2nd Assistant

Spain

G. González Páez

4th Official

Spain

League averages

La Liga Based on last 100 matches

Fouls / match 21.03
Yellow cards / match 3.88
Red cards / match 0.21
Penalties / match 0.27
Rayo Vallecano I. Pérez Soto
I. Pérez Soto
VS
Villarreal M. García Toral
M. García Toral
1.21
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.79
1.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Valencia Rank: 78 D
Girona Rank: 75 D
Getafe Rank: 77 W
Real Sociedad Rank: 80 D
Espanyol Rank: 73 W
Mallorca Rank: 76 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Sevilla Rank: 74 L
Mallorca Rank: 77 D
Levante Rank: 74 W
Celta de Vigo Rank: 79 W
Real Oviedo Rank: 71 D
Athletic Club Rank: 77 W
4
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
4 - 3 - 13
13

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Rayo Vallecano
48.26%
Draw
26.3%
Away Villarreal
25.44%

Movement

Changes since opening
Rayo Vallecano
-49.63%
Draw
+24.38%
Villarreal
+25.24%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
78.52
82.87
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Rayo Vallecano
Villarreal
Power Score
78.52
82.87
League Position
9
3
Global Rank
71
45

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Rayo Vallecano — Opponent-weighted form score
Villarreal — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Rayo Vallecano Villarreal

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Rayo Vallecano

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Villarreal

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —
Possession Efficiency data not available for this match.

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Rayo Vallecano ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Villarreal
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Rayo Vallecano Villarreal
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Rayo Vallecano Villarreal
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Rayo Vallecano
Villarreal
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Rayo Vallecano
vs
Villarreal
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Rayo Vallecano Villarreal
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Rayo Vallecano 0.00
Villarreal 0.00
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Rayo Vallecano Villarreal
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Rayo Vallecano 0.00
Villarreal 0.00
Rayo Vallecano
Villarreal
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • RAY had peak pressure around 52'.
  • RAY started the game with stronger pressure.
RAY Pressure VIL Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: RAY reached the top pressure at 52' (83.81).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 20 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Rayo Vallecano RAY Home
20 matches
Villarreal VIL Away
Match Record
4
Wins
13
3
Draws
3
13
Losses
4
Goals
18
Goals Scored
45
45
Goals Conceded
18
-27
Goal Difference
+27

Data last updated: 2026-05-17T16:45:37+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-3-3
Match Formation 4-4-2
Pitch
A. Batalla Barga
Argentina
13 A. Batalla Barga
A. Ratiu
Romania
2 A. Ratiu
F. Lejeune
France
24 F. Lejeune
P. Ciss
Senegal
6 P. Ciss
J. Chavarría Pérez
Substitution
Spain
3 J. Chavarría Pérez
Ó. Trejo
Substitution
Argentina
8 Ó. Trejo
Ó. Martín Luengo
Spain
23 Ó. Martín Luengo
U. López Cabrera
Substitution
Spain
17 U. López Cabrera
J. De Frutos Sebastián
Spain
19 J. De Frutos Sebastián
A. Zurawski
Substitution
Brazil
9 A. Zurawski
S. Camello Pérez
Substitution
Spain
10 S. Camello Pérez
Pitch
A. Tenas Ureña
Spain
25 A. Tenas Ureña
S. Cardona Bermúdez
Spain
23 S. Cardona Bermúdez
R. Marín Zamora
Spain
4 R. Marín Zamora
W. Kambwala
Substitution
France
5 W. Kambwala
?. Mouriño González
Uruguay
15 ?. Mouriño González
A. Moleiro González
Spain
20 A. Moleiro González
P. Gueye
Substitution
Senegal
18 P. Gueye
S. Comesaña Veiga
Substitution
Spain
14 S. Comesaña Veiga
T. Buchanan
Substitution
Canada
17 T. Buchanan
T. Oluwaseyi
Substitution
Nigeria
21 T. Oluwaseyi
A. Pérez Gutiérrez
Spain
22 A. Pérez Gutiérrez

General Information

Date & Time :
May 17, 2026, 05:00 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 La Liga, Spain · Round 37 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Estadio de Vallecas
Capacity :
14708
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Ricardo De Burgos Bengoetxea
Iker De Francisco Grijalba
Asier Pérez de Mendiola González de Durana
Gonzalo González Páez

Statistics

Possession
RAY
55%
VIL
45%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 0
3 Big Chances Created 0
3 Shots 5
51 Dangerous attacks 51
53 Possession 47
1 Corners 9
10 Free kicks 12
2 Yellow Cards 0

Match Overview

22 Throwins 21
39 Ball Safe 32
17 Dribble Attempts 18
59 Successful Dribbles Percentage 22
8 Successful Headers 5
7 Goal Kicks 10
10 Successful Dribbles 4
0 Hit Woodwork 1
2 Assists 0
5 Substitutions 5
5 Goal Attempts 1

Attacking

122 Attacks 76
2 Big Chances Missed 0

Possession

61 Long Passes 42
62 Successful Long Passes Percentage 60
471 Passes 403
86 Successful Passes Percentage 84
403 Successful Passes 338
38 Successful Long Passes 25
11 Key Passes 8

Defensive

28 Tackles 16
2 Interceptions 7
56 Duels Won 36
2 Saves 5

Build-up

15 Total Crosses 23
3 Accurate Crosses 3

Discipline

1 Offsides 0
12 Fouls 10

Lineup

Referee : Ricardo De Burgos Bengoetxea

Starting XI ▼

13
Augusto Batalla
Augusto Batalla Goalkeeper
6.89
2
Andrei Rațiu
Andrei Rațiu Defender
6.94
3
Pep Chavarría
Pep Chavarría Defender
6.79
22
Alfonso Espino
Alfonso Espino
Defender81'
6.7
6
Pathé Ciss
Pathé Ciss Defender
6.94
24
Florian Lejeune
Florian Lejeune Defender
7.11
8
Oscar Trejo
Oscar Trejo Midfielder
6.52
4
Pedro Díaz
Pedro Díaz
Midfielder66'
6.71
17
Unai López
Unai López Midfielder
6.85
16
Abdul Mumin
Abdul Mumin
Defender82'
6.41
23
Óscar Valentín
Óscar Valentín Midfielder
6.78
9
Alexandre Zurawski
Alexandre Zurawski Attacker
6.64
14
Carlos Martín
Carlos Martín
Attacker74'
6.47
10
Sergio Camello
Sergio Camello Attacker
6.62
21
Fran Pérez
Fran Pérez
Midfielder73'
6.59
19
Jorge de Frutos
Jorge de Frutos Attacker
6.88
Referee : Ricardo De Burgos Bengoetxea

Starting XI ▼

25
Arnau Tenas
Arnau Tenas Goalkeeper
6.65
4
Rafa Marín
Rafa Marín Defender
6.92
5
Willy Kambwala
Willy Kambwala Defender
6.56
2
Logan Costa
Logan Costa
Defender77'
6.94
15
Santiago Mouriño
Santiago Mouriño Defender
6.87
23
Sergi Cardona
Sergi Cardona Defender
6.78
14
Santi Comesaña
Santi Comesaña Midfielder
6.87
16
Thomas Partey
Thomas Partey
Midfielder64'
6.58
17
Tajon Buchanan
Tajon Buchanan Midfielder
6.74
11
Alfon González
Alfon González
Attacker46'
6.6
18
Pape Gueye
Pape Gueye Midfielder
7
10
Dani Parejo
Dani Parejo
Midfielder72'
6.8
20
Alberto Moleiro
Alberto Moleiro Midfielder
6.93
21
Tani Oluwaseyi
Tani Oluwaseyi Attacker
6.5
7
Gerard Moreno
Gerard Moreno
Attacker63'
7.12
22
Ayoze Pérez
Ayoze Pérez Attacker
6.64

Events

2ND-HALF
90+6'
Event
Santiago Mouriño
2nd Yellowcard
Event
Abdul Mumin → Unai López
10th Substitution
82'
Event
Unai López
Time wasting / 3rd Yellowcard
82'
Event
Alfonso Espino → Pep Chavarría
9th Substitution
81'
77'
Event
Logan Costa → Willy Kambwala
8th Substitution
Event
Carlos Martín → Alexandre Zurawski
7th Substitution
74'
Event
Fran Pérez → Sergio Camello
6th Substitution
73'
72'
Event
Dani Parejo → Pape Gueye
5th Substitution
Event
Pedro Díaz → Oscar Trejo
4th Substitution
66'
64'
Event
Thomas Partey → Santi Comesaña
3rd Substitution
63'
Event
Gerard Moreno → Tani Oluwaseyi
2nd Substitution
Event
Florian Lejeune
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
61'
Event
Alexandre Zurawski
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
47'
46'
Event
Alfon González → Tajon Buchanan
1st Substitution
1ST-HALF
Event
Sergio Camello
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
28'

Match Commentary

90
Attempt Attempt
Sergi Cardona Bermudez takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
90
Attempt Attempt
Thomas Partey takes a right-footed shot but misses.
90
Attempt Attempt
Ayoze Perez takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
90
Attempt Attempt
Thomas Partey takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
89
Attempt Attempt
Florian Lejeune takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
85
Attempt Attempt
Santiago Mourino takes a right-footed shot but misses.
84
Attempt Attempt
Fran Perez takes a right-footed shot but misses.
82
Attempt Attempt
Thomas Partey's right-footed shot is saved.
82
Update Update
Abdul Mumin comes on for Unai Lopez Cabrera.
81
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Unai Lopez Cabrera receives a yellow card.
81
Update Update
Alfonso Espino comes on for Pep Chavarria.
78
Attempt Attempt
Jorge de Frutos takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
77
Attempt Attempt
Carlos Martin's left-footed shot is blocked.
77
Update Update
Logan Costa is on, and Willy Kambwala is off.
74
Update Update
Carlos Martin replaces Alexandre Zurawski.
73
Update Update
Fran Perez replaces Sergio Camello.
72
Substitution Substitution
Daniel Parejo Munoz is substituted off for Pape Alassane Gueye.
71
Attempt Attempt
Alberto Moleiro takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
66
Substitution Substitution
Pedro Diaz Fanjul is substituted for Oscar Guido Trejo.
64
Update Update
Thomas Partey comes on for Pape Alassane Gueye.
63
Update Update
Gerard Moreno Balaguero is on, and Tani Oluwaseyi is off.
61
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Florian Lejeune receives a yellow card.
55
Attempt Attempt
Alexandre Zurawski takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
52
Attempt Attempt
Sergio Camello takes a left-footed shot but misses.
47
Attempt Attempt
Shot by Alexandre Zurawski with his right foot results in a goal.
46
Substitution Substitution
Substitution: Alfon Gonzalez comes on for Tajon Buchanan.
45
Attempt Attempt
Sergio Camello takes a left-footed shot, but it is saved.
39
Attempt Attempt
Sergio Camello takes a header but misses the shot.
36
Attempt Attempt
Florian Lejeune takes a right-footed shot but misses.
28
Attempt Attempt
Sergio Camello scores with a right-footed shot.
26
Attempt Attempt
Andrei Ratiu's right-footed shot is blocked.
26
Attempt Attempt
Jorge de Frutos takes a right-footed shot, but it is saved.
19
Attempt Attempt
Sergio Camello takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
18
Attempt Attempt
Sergi Cardona Bermudez takes a right-footed shot that hits the post.
15
Attempt Attempt
Alberto Moleiro takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
15
Attempt Attempt
Santi Comesana takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
7
Attempt Attempt
Tani Oluwaseyi takes a left-footed shot, but it's blocked.

CONCLUSION

Rayo Vallecano delivered a disciplined display to overcome Villarreal 2-0 and claim the points. The early goal established control that the home side never relinquished. Possession edges and clean sheets underscored a professional approach from start to finish. Villarreal struggled to convert opportunities despite their stronger designation. The clean result without dismissals allowed both teams to compete at full capacity. This performance illustrates Rayo's capacity to exceed expectations in home fixtures. Future matches will test whether this level can be sustained against varied opposition.

Rayo Vallecano vs Villarreal preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

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Alf Indseth

Alf Indseth writes football-focused analysis that looks beyond match results to explore form, value, and market context.