Real Sociedad vs Valencia Prediction, Preview and Stats

Spain flag 2025/2026 La Liga, Spain
Anoeta Stadium Sun, 17 May - 5:00 PM
La Liga
Real Sociedad RSO
3 Winner 4
Valencia VAL
Full Time Sun, 17 May 5:00 PM
Round 37 Regular Season
Orri Óskarsson - 63'
César Tárrega - 60' (Own Goal)
Aihen Muñoz - 3'
Goal
|
Goal
Javi Guerra - 90+3', 8'
Guido Rodríguez - 89'
Hugo Duro - 22'
|
Red Card Eray Cömert 70'

CONTEXT

In a captivating La Liga clash, Real Sociedad hosted Valencia and suffered a narrow 3-4 defeat. The first half ended with the visitors leading 1-2 after an intense opening period. Real Sociedad dominated possession with 55 percent but struggled to convert their opportunities effectively. Valencia, despite playing with ten men following a red card to one of their players, mounted a strong comeback in the second half. This result marked a significant deviation from pre-match expectations as the away side emerged victorious. The match showcased high drama with multiple goals and tactical adjustments after the dismissal. Overall, the performance highlighted Valencia's efficiency in capitalizing on key moments while Real Sociedad failed to maintain their advantage at home.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Final score: Real Sociedad 3-4 Valencia. Valencia showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: The efficiency shift was in line with the observed team performances throughout the game.
  • xG alignment: Expected goals alignment could not be determined due to unavailable xG metrics.
  • Market alignment: The final result was not aligned with market expectations prior to the match.
  • xG expectations: No specific xG expectations were set as data remained unavailable for analysis.
  • Event impact: The red card event significantly impacted the second half adjustments and overall game flow.
  • Red card distortion: Red card distortion led to notable changes in team structure during the latter stages.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

I. Galech Apezteguía

Spain 25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

I. Alonso López

1st Assistant

Spain

J. Escuela Melo

2nd Assistant

Spain

F. Crespo Puente

4th Official

Spain

League averages

La Liga Based on last 100 matches

Fouls / match 21.03
Yellow cards / match 3.88
Red cards / match 0.21
Penalties / match 0.27
Real Sociedad P. Matarazzo
P. Matarazzo
VS
Valencia C. Corberán Vallet
C. Corberán Vallet
1.33
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.38
0.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Girona Rank: 75 D
Real Betis Rank: 82 D
Sevilla Rank: 72 L
Rayo Vallecano Rank: 76 D
Getafe Rank: 76 L
Deportivo Alavés Rank: 77 D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Rayo Vallecano Rank: 79 D
Athletic Club Rank: 79 W
Atlético Madrid Rank: 89 L
Girona Rank: 76 W
Mallorca Rank: 76 D
Elche Rank: 74 L
14
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
14 - 9 - 12
12

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Real Sociedad
39.78%
Draw
29.75%
Away Valencia
30.47%

Movement

Changes since opening
Real Sociedad
+39.51%
Draw
+21.06%
Valencia
-60.57%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
79.73
77.58
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Real Sociedad
Valencia
Power Score
79.73
77.58
League Position
8
12
Global Rank
62
77

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Real Sociedad — Opponent-weighted form score
Valencia — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Real Sociedad Valencia

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Real Sociedad

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Valencia

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —
Possession Efficiency data not available for this match.

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Real Sociedad ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Valencia
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Real Sociedad Valencia
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Real Sociedad Valencia
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Real Sociedad
Valencia
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Real Sociedad
vs
Valencia
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Real Sociedad Valencia
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Real Sociedad 0.00
Valencia 0.00
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Real Sociedad Valencia
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Real Sociedad 0.00
Valencia 0.00
Real Sociedad
Valencia
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • VAL had peak pressure around 96'.
  • RSO started the game with stronger pressure.
RSO Pressure VAL Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: VAL reached the top pressure at 96' (87.09).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 35 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Real Sociedad RSO Home
35 matches
Valencia VAL Away
Match Record
14
Wins
12
9
Draws
9
12
Losses
14
Goals
46
Goals Scored
39
39
Goals Conceded
46
+7
Goal Difference
-7

Data last updated: 2026-05-17T16:45:53+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-4-2
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
A. Remiro Gargallo
Spain
1 A. Remiro Gargallo
A. Elustondo Irribaria
Substitution
Spain
6 A. Elustondo Irribaria
J. Martín Vicente
Spain
31 J. Martín Vicente
I. Zubeldía Elorza
Spain
5 I. Zubeldía Elorza
A. Muñoz Capellán
Substitution
Spain
3 A. Muñoz Capellán
P. Marín Tejada
Spain
15 P. Marín Tejada
C. Soler Barragán
Spain
18 C. Soler Barragán
B. Turrientes Imaz
Spain
8 B. Turrientes Imaz
A. Zakharyan
Substitution
Russia
21 A. Zakharyan
B. Méndez Portela
Substitution
Spain
23 B. Méndez Portela
O. Óskarsson
Substitution
Iceland
9 O. Óskarsson
Pitch
S. Dimitrievski
Macedonia
1 S. Dimitrievski
J. Vazquez Alcalde
Spain
21 J. Vazquez Alcalde
E. Cömert
Switzerland
24 E. Cömert
C. Tárrega Requeni
Spain
5 C. Tárrega Requeni
U. Núñez Gestoso
Substitution
Spain
4 U. Núñez Gestoso
G. Rodríguez
Argentina
2 G. Rodríguez
F. Ugrinic
Substitution
Switzerland
23 F. Ugrinic
L. Rioja González
Substitution
Spain
11 L. Rioja González
J. Guerra Moreno
Spain
8 J. Guerra Moreno
D. López Noguerol
Substitution
Spain
16 D. López Noguerol
H. Duro
Substitution
Spain
9 H. Duro

General Information

Date & Time :
May 17, 2026, 05:00 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 La Liga, Spain · Round 37 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Anoeta Stadium
Capacity :
40000
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Iosu Galech Apezteguía
Ignacio Alonso López
José Carlos Escuela Melo
F. Crespo Puente

Statistics

Possession
RSO
53%
VAL
47%

Top Statistics

3 Goals 4
4 Big Chances Created 4
7 Shots 9
44 Dangerous attacks 25
55 Possession 45
3 Corners 2
11 Free kicks 12
4 Yellow Cards 0
0 Red Cards 1

Match Overview

17 Throwins 17
47 Successful Dribbles Percentage 67
4 Goal Attempts 4
2 Assists 4
19 Dribble Attempts 18
9 Successful Dribbles 12
13 Successful Headers 14
6 Goal Kicks 5
61 Ball Safe 79
1 Hit Woodwork 0
5 Substitutions 5

Attacking

112 Attacks 86
3 Big Chances Missed 2

Possession

491 Passes 411
8 Key Passes 11
57 Long Passes 72
46 Successful Long Passes Percentage 32
410 Successful Passes 321
84 Successful Passes Percentage 78
26 Successful Long Passes 23

Defensive

52 Duels Won 54
8 Interceptions 4
18 Tackles 17
2 Saves 1

Build-up

17 Total Crosses 5
5 Accurate Crosses 4

Discipline

12 Fouls 11
5 Offsides 3

Lineup

Referee : Iosu Galech Apezteguía

Starting XI ▼

1
Álex Remiro
Álex Remiro Goalkeeper
6.83
3
Aihen Muñoz
Aihen Muñoz Defender
6.5
17
Sergio Gómez
Sergio Gómez
Attacker57'
6.96
5
Igor Zubeldia
Igor Zubeldia Defender
6.69
6
Aritz Elustondo
Aritz Elustondo Defender
6.47
2
Jon Aramburu
Jon Aramburu
Defender84'
6.74
31
Jon Martín
Jon Martín Defender
6.93
8
Beñat Turrientes
Beñat Turrientes Midfielder
6.8
15
Pablo Marín
Pablo Marín Midfielder
6.49
18
Carlos Soler
Carlos Soler Midfielder
7.04
21
Arsen Zakharyan
Arsen Zakharyan Midfielder
6.52
10
Mikel Oyarzabal
Mikel Oyarzabal
Attacker57'
7.16
9
Orri Óskarsson
Orri Óskarsson Attacker
6.86
11
Gonçalo Guedes
Gonçalo Guedes
Attacker79'
6.9
23
Brais Méndez
Brais Méndez Attacker
6.92
24
Luka Sucic
Luka Sucic
Midfielder57'
6.74
Referee : Iosu Galech Apezteguía

Starting XI ▼

1
Stole Dimitrievski
Stole Dimitrievski Goalkeeper
6.89
4
Unai Núñez
Unai Núñez Defender
6.74
10
André Almeida
André Almeida
Midfielder83'
6.84
5
César Tárrega
César Tárrega Defender
6.73
21
Jesús Vázquez
Jesús Vázquez Defender
6.55
24
Eray Cömert
Eray Cömert Defender
6.9
2
Guido Rodríguez
Guido Rodríguez Midfielder
6.95
8
Javi Guerra
Javi Guerra Midfielder
2
6.73
11
Luis Rioja
Luis Rioja Midfielder
6.82
17
Largie Ramazani
Largie Ramazani
Attacker74'
6.78
16
Diego López
Diego López Midfielder
6.69
18
Pepelu
Pepelu
Midfielder73'
6.92
23
Filip Ugrinic
Filip Ugrinic Midfielder
6.85
12
Thierry Correia
Thierry Correia
Defender73'
6.6
9
Hugo Duro
Hugo Duro Attacker
6.73
6
Umar Sadiq
Umar Sadiq
Attacker74'
6.52

Events

2ND-HALF
90+3'
Event
Javi Guerra
Left foot shot / 6th Goal
89'
Event
Guido Rodríguez
Header / 5th Goal
Event
Jon Martín
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
88'
Event
Igor Zubeldia
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
88'
Event
Beñat Turrientes
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
86'
Event
Jon Aramburu → Aritz Elustondo
10th Substitution
84'
83'
Event
André Almeida → Unai Núñez
9th Substitution
Event
Gonçalo Guedes → Orri Óskarsson
8th Substitution
79'
74'
Event
Largie Ramazani → Luis Rioja
6th Substitution
74'
Event
Umar Sadiq → Hugo Duro
7th Substitution
73'
Event
Thierry Correia → Filip Ugrinic
4th Substitution
73'
Event
Pepelu → Diego López
5th Substitution
70'
Event
Eray Cömert
Professional foul last man / 1st Redcard
Event
Orri Óskarsson
Right foot shot / 4th Goal
63'
Event
César Tárrega
Left foot shot / 1st Own Goal
60'
Event
Sergio Gómez → Aihen Muñoz
1st Substitution
57'
Event
Mikel Oyarzabal → Arsen Zakharyan
2nd Substitution
57'
Event
Luka Sucic → Brais Méndez
3rd Substitution
57'
1ST-HALF
Event
Arsen Zakharyan
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
25'
22'
Event
Hugo Duro
Left foot shot / 3rd Goal
8'
Event
Javi Guerra
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
Event
Aihen Muñoz
Left foot shot / 1st Goal
3'

Match Commentary

90
Attempt Attempt
Guido Rodriguez takes a left-footed shot but misses.
90
Attempt Attempt
Sadiq Umar's header is saved.
90
Attempt Attempt
Javier Guerra scores with a left-footed shot.
89
Update Update
Guido Rodriguez scores with a header.
88
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Igor Zubeldia receives a yellow card.
88
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Jon Martin receives a yellow card.
86
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Benat Turrientes receives a yellow card.
86
Attempt Attempt
Javier Guerra's right-footed shot is saved.
85
Attempt Attempt
Largie Ramazani takes a right-footed shot but misses.
84
Update Update
Jon Aramburu replaces Aritz Elustondo.
83
Update Update
Domingos Andre Ribeiro Almeida comes on for Unai Nunez Gestoso.
80
Attempt Attempt
Largie Ramazani takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
79
Update Update
Goncalo Manuel Ganchinho Guedes is on, and Orri Steinn Oskarsson is off.
77
Attempt Attempt
Orri Steinn Oskarsson takes a left-footed shot but misses.
77
Attempt Attempt
Largie Ramazani takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
74
Update Update
Largie Ramazani comes on for Luis Rioja.
74
Update Update
Sadiq Umar replaces Hugo Duro.
74
Update Update
Thierry Correia comes on for Filip Ugrinic.
74
Update Update
Jose Luis Garcia Vaya replaces Diego Lopez Noguerol.
70
Red Card Red Card Important
Red card shown to Eray Ervin Comert.
63
Attempt Attempt
Orri Steinn Oskarsson scores with a right-footed shot.
62
Attempt Attempt
Diego Lopez Noguerol takes a left-footed shot but misses.
60
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Own goal! Csar Tarrega scores, making it 2-2.
58
Substitution Substitution
Sergio Gómez Martín is substituted off for Aihen Munoz Capellan.
58
Update Update
Mikel Oyarzabal is on, and Arsen Zakharyan is off.
58
Update Update
Luka Sucic is on, and Brais Mendez is off.
45
Attempt Attempt
Luis Rioja takes a left-footed shot, but it is blocked.
42
Attempt Attempt
Orri Steinn Oskarsson takes a left-footed shot, but it is saved.
35
Attempt Attempt
Carlos Soler Barragan takes a left-footed shot but misses.
34
Attempt Attempt
Orri Steinn Oskarsson takes a right-footed shot but misses.
25
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card for Arsen Zakharyan.
24
Attempt Attempt
Javier Guerra takes a right-footed shot but misses.
22
Attempt Attempt
Hugo Duro scores with a left-footed shot.
8
Attempt Attempt
Javier Guerra takes a shot with his right foot and scores.
8
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Javier Guerra scores, making it 1-1.
7
Attempt Attempt
Filip Ugrinic takes a right-footed shot but misses.
3
Attempt Attempt
Aihen Munoz Capellan takes a shot with his left foot and scores.

CONCLUSION

Final score detail: Real Sociedad 3-4 Valencia. Structural assessment: Valencia exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Structural distortion: The match was materially influenced by red card(s), altering baseline dynamics. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.

Real Sociedad vs Valencia preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

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Alf Indseth

Alf Indseth writes football-focused analysis that looks beyond match results to explore form, value, and market context.