Sevilla vs Real Madrid Prediction, Preview and Stats

Spain flag 2025/2026 La Liga, Spain
Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán Sun, 17 May - 5:00 PM
La Liga
Sevilla SEV
0 Winner 1
Real Madrid RMA
Full Time Sun, 17 May 5:00 PM
Round 37 Regular Season
|
Goal

CONTEXT

Sevilla hosted Real Madrid in a match that concluded with a 0-1 final score. The halftime score was 0-1. Real Madrid held 59 percent possession while Sevilla managed 41 percent. No red cards were issued during the contest. The stronger team according to pre-match indicators emerged victorious. A significant deviation of 51.9 percent was recorded for Real Madrid. Market alignment held true for the outcome. Efficiency metrics stayed in line with established patterns. Expected goals data remained unavailable preventing direct statistical comparisons. The solitary goal scored by the visitors shaped the entire result without additional disruptions from disciplinary actions or other events.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Final score: Sevilla 0-1 Real Madrid. Real Madrid showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency remained in line with established patterns throughout.
  • xG alignment: Expected goals data was unavailable for any alignment check.
  • Market alignment: The final result stayed aligned with pre-match market indicators.
  • xG expectations: No expected goals values were present to evaluate prior expectations.
  • Event impact: The single away goal decided the match without further incidents.
  • Red card distortion: Zero red cards were shown leaving match dynamics undistorted.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

J. Sánchez Martínez

Spain 25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

R. Cabañero Martínez

1st Assistant

Spain

A. Clemente Ortuño

4th Official

Spain

J. López Mir

2nd Assistant

Spain

League averages

La Liga Based on last 100 matches

Fouls / match 21.03
Yellow cards / match 3.88
Red cards / match 0.21
Penalties / match 0.27
Sevilla L. García Plaza
L. García Plaza
VS
Real Madrid Á. Arbeloa Coca
Á. Arbeloa Coca
1.13
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
2.04
2 i
Last 6 Opponents
Villarreal Rank: 84 W
Espanyol Rank: 73 W
Real Sociedad Rank: 81 W
Osasuna Rank: 77 L
Levante Rank: 73 L
Atlético Madrid Rank: 88 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Real Oviedo Rank: 71 W
FC Barcelona Rank: 97 L
Espanyol Rank: 73 W
Real Betis Rank: 81 D
Deportivo Alavés Rank: 77 W
Girona Rank: 75 D
11
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
11 - 3 - 31
31

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Sevilla
26.4%
Draw
25.5%
Away Real Madrid
48.1%

Movement

Changes since opening
Sevilla
+26.21%
Draw
+21.3%
Real Madrid
-47.51%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
74.53
92.39
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Sevilla
Real Madrid
Power Score
74.53
92.39
League Position
11
2
Global Rank
118
6

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Sevilla — Opponent-weighted form score
Real Madrid — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Sevilla Real Madrid

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Sevilla

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Real Madrid

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —
Possession Efficiency data not available for this match.

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Sevilla ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Real Madrid
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Sevilla Real Madrid
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Sevilla Real Madrid
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Sevilla
Real Madrid
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Sevilla
vs
Real Madrid
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Sevilla Real Madrid
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Sevilla 0.00
Real Madrid 0.00
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Sevilla Real Madrid
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Sevilla 0.00
Real Madrid 0.00
Sevilla
Real Madrid
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • RMA had peak pressure around 54'.
  • SEV started the game with stronger pressure.
SEV Pressure RMA Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: RMA reached the top pressure at 54' (64.79).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 45 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Sevilla SEV Home
45 matches
Real Madrid RMA Away
Match Record
11
Wins
31
3
Draws
3
31
Losses
11
Goals
63
Goals Scored
113
113
Goals Conceded
63
-50
Goal Difference
+50

Data last updated: 2026-05-17T16:45:30+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-4-2
Match Formation 4-3-3
Pitch
O. Vlachodimos
Greece
1 O. Vlachodimos
José Ángel Carmona
Substitution
Spain
2 José Ángel Carmona
A. López Gallo
Spain
32 A. López Gallo
Kike Salas
Spain
4 Kike Salas
G. Suazo Urbina
Chile
12 G. Suazo Urbina
R. Vargas
Substitution
Switzerland
11 R. Vargas
N. Gudelj
Substitution
Serbia
6 N. Gudelj
D. Sow
Switzerland
20 D. Sow
J. Martínez Gauna
Substitution
Spain
36 J. Martínez Gauna
A. Adams
Nigeria
9 A. Adams
N. Maupay
Substitution
France
17 N. Maupay
Pitch
T. Courtois
Belgium
1 T. Courtois
F. García Torres
Spain
20 F. García Torres
D. Huijsen
Spain
24 D. Huijsen
A. Rüdiger
Germany
22 A. Rüdiger
D. Carvajal Ramos
Spain
2 D. Carvajal Ramos
T. Pitarch Pinar
Substitution
45 T. Pitarch Pinar
A. Tchouaméni
Substitution
France
14 A. Tchouaméni
J. Bellingham
Substitution
England
5 J. Bellingham
V. Júnior
Substitution
Brazil
7 V. Júnior
K. Mbappé
France
10 K. Mbappé
B. Abdelkader Diaz
Substitution
Spain
21 B. Abdelkader Diaz

General Information

Date & Time :
May 17, 2026, 05:00 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 La Liga, Spain · Round 37 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán
Capacity :
42714
Attendance :
40845
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Raúl Cabañero Martínez
Alejandro Clemente Ortuño
José María Sánchez Martínez
Juan José López Mir

Statistics

Possession
SEV
46%
RMA
54%

Top Statistics

0 Goals 1
0 Big Chances Created 2
5 Shots 6
51 Dangerous attacks 35
41 Possession 59
4 Corners 4
12 Free kicks 18
4 Yellow Cards 0

Match Overview

12 Successful Dribbles 5
67 Successful Dribbles Percentage 25
7 Goal Kicks 13
18 Dribble Attempts 20
15 Throwins 13
11 Goal Attempts 7
49 Ball Safe 63
9 Successful Headers 8
5 Substitutions 5
0 Hit Woodwork 1

Attacking

102 Attacks 64
0 Big Chances Missed 2

Possession

56 Long Passes 56
32 Successful Long Passes 27
80 Successful Passes Percentage 88
285 Successful Passes 463
57 Successful Long Passes Percentage 48
358 Passes 528
14 Key Passes 9

Defensive

26 Tackles 12
9 Interceptions 7
1 Saves 6
59 Duels Won 43

Build-up

7 Accurate Crosses 3
17 Total Crosses 6

Discipline

18 Fouls 12
1 Offsides 3

Lineup

Referee : José María Sánchez Martínez

Starting XI ▼

1
Odysseas Vlachodimos
Odysseas Vlachodimos Goalkeeper
6.75
2
José Ángel Carmona
José Ángel Carmona Defender
6.67
16
Juanlu Sánchez
Juanlu Sánchez
Midfielder70'
6.65
4
Kike Salas
Kike Salas Defender
6.94
12
Gabriel Suazo
Gabriel Suazo Defender
6.89
32
Andrés Castrín
Andrés Castrín Defender
6.88
6
Nemanja Gudelj
Nemanja Gudelj Midfielder
6.77
18
Lucien Agoumé
Lucien Agoumé
Midfielder54'
6.84
11
Rubén Vargas
Rubén Vargas Midfielder
6.86
21
Chidera Ejuke
Chidera Ejuke
Attacker54'
6.81
20
Djibril Sow
Djibril Sow Midfielder
6.82
36
Oso
Oso Midfielder
6.82
7
Isaac Romero
Isaac Romero
Attacker78'
6.56
9
Akor Adams
Akor Adams Attacker
6.83
17
Neal Maupay
Neal Maupay Attacker
6.8
10
Alexis Sánchez
Alexis Sánchez
Attacker53'
6.76
Referee : José María Sánchez Martínez

Starting XI ▼

1
Thibaut Courtois
Thibaut Courtois Goalkeeper
6.81
2
Daniel Carvajal
Daniel Carvajal Defender
6.7
20
Fran García
Fran García Defender
6.77
22
Antonio Rüdiger
Antonio Rüdiger Defender
6.78
24
Dean Huijsen
Dean Huijsen Defender
7.08
5
Jude Bellingham
Jude Bellingham Midfielder
7.32
46
Alvaro Leiva
Alvaro Leiva
Attacker87'
14
Aurélien Tchouaméni
Aurélien Tchouaméni Midfielder
7.19
6
Eduardo Camavinga
Eduardo Camavinga
Midfielder70'
7
45
Thiago Pitarch
Thiago Pitarch Midfielder
6.47
30
Franco Mastantuono
Franco Mastantuono
Attacker70'
6.77
7
Vinicius Junior
Vinicius Junior Attacker
7.33
16
Gonzalo García
Gonzalo García
Attacker77'
6.73
10
Kylian Mbappé
Kylian Mbappé Attacker
7.7
21
Brahim Díaz
Brahim Díaz Attacker
6.87
12
Trent Alexander-Arnold
Trent Alexander-Arnold
Defender77'
6.97

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Lucien Agoumé
Argument / 4th Yellowcard
90+4'
87'
Event
Alvaro Leiva → Jude Bellingham
10th Substitution
Event
Juanlu Sánchez
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
84'
Event
Alexis Sánchez
Argument / 2nd Yellowcard
80'
Event
Isaac Romero → Oso
9th Substitution
78'
77'
Event
Trent Alexander-Arnold → Brahim Díaz
7th Substitution
77'
Event
Gonzalo García → Vinicius Junior
8th Substitution
Event
Juanlu Sánchez → José Ángel Carmona
6th Substitution
70'
70'
Event
Franco Mastantuono → Thiago Pitarch
5th Substitution
70'
Event
Eduardo Camavinga → Aurélien Tchouaméni
4th Substitution
Event
Chidera Ejuke → Rubén Vargas
3rd Substitution
54'
Event
Lucien Agoumé → Nemanja Gudelj
2nd Substitution
54'
Event
Alexis Sánchez → Neal Maupay
1st Substitution
53'
Event
Nemanja Gudelj
Off the ball foul / 1st Yellowcard
48'
1ST-HALF
15'
Event
Vinicius Junior
Right foot shot / 1st Goal

Match Commentary

90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Lucien Agoume receives a yellow card.
90
Attempt Attempt
Enrique Jesus Salas Valiente takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
90
Attempt Attempt
Chidera Ejuke takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
87
Attempt Attempt
Kylian Mbappe takes a right-footed shot but misses.
87
Update Update
Alvaro Leiva replaces Jude Bellingham.
87
Attempt Attempt
Andres Castrin's header is saved.
84
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Alexis Alejandro Sanchez receives a yellow card.
83
Attempt Attempt
Isaac Romero Bernal's left-footed shot is saved.
80
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Alexis Alejandro Sanchez receives a yellow card.
78
Substitution Substitution
Isaac Romero Bernal is substituted off for Oso.
77
Update Update
Gonzalo Garcia Torres replaces Vinicius Jose Paixao de Oliveira Junior.
77
Update Update
Trent John Alexander-Arnold is on, and Brahim Diaz is off.
76
Attempt Attempt
Akor Adams takes a header shot, but it's saved.
72
Attempt Attempt
Vinicius Jose Paixao de Oliveira Junior takes a right-footed shot but misses.
72
Attempt Attempt
Franco Mastantuono takes a left-footed shot, but it hits the post.
70
Update Update
Eduardo Camavinga replaces Aurelien Tchouameni.
70
Update Update
Alexis Alejandro Sanchez is on, and Jose Angel Carmona is off.
70
Update Update
Franco Mastantuono replaces Thiago Pitarch Pinar.
69
Attempt Attempt
Akor Adams takes a right-footed shot but misses.
68
Attempt Attempt
Kylian Mbappe takes a left-footed shot but misses.
64
Attempt Attempt
Enrique Jesus Salas Valiente takes a left-footed shot but misses.
54
Update Update
Chidera Ejuke comes on for Ruben Vargas.
54
Update Update
Alexis Alejandro Sanchez comes on for Neal Maupay.
54
Update Update
Lucien Agoume replaces Nemanja Gudelj.
51
Attempt Attempt
Aurelien Tchouameni's right-footed shot is blocked.
48
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Nemanja Gudelj receives a yellow card.
44
Attempt Attempt
Thiago Pitarch Pinar takes a right-footed shot but misses.
43
Attempt Attempt
Neal Maupay's right-footed shot is blocked.
39
Attempt Attempt
Kylian Mbappe takes a right-footed shot but misses.
34
Attempt Attempt
Neal Maupay's right-footed shot is blocked.
32
Attempt Attempt
Ruben Vargas takes a right-footed shot but misses.
29
Attempt Attempt
Kylian Mbappe's right-footed shot is blocked.
23
Attempt Attempt
Aurelien Tchouameni's right-footed shot is blocked.
23
Attempt Attempt
Aurelien Tchouameni's right-footed shot is blocked.
19
Attempt Attempt
Neal Maupay takes a left-footed shot but misses.
15
Attempt Attempt
Vinicius Jose Paixao de Oliveira Junior takes a right-footed shot and scores.
15
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Vinicius Jose Paixao de Oliveira Junior scores, making it 1-0.
9
Attempt Attempt
Kylian Mbappe's right-footed shot is blocked.
5
Attempt Attempt
Oso's left-footed shot is saved.
4
Attempt Attempt
Neal Maupay's right-footed shot is saved.
1
Attempt Attempt
Oso takes a right-footed shot but misses.

CONCLUSION

Final score detail: Sevilla 0-1 Real Madrid. Structural assessment: Real Madrid exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

Sevilla vs Real Madrid preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

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Alf Indseth

Alf Indseth writes football-focused analysis that looks beyond match results to explore form, value, and market context.