Nice vs Metz Prediction, Preview and Stats

France flag 2025/2026 Ligue 1, France
Allianz Riviera Sun, 17 May - 7:00 PM
Ligue 1
Nice NCE
0 – 0
Metz MTZ
Full Time Sun, 17 May 7:00 PM
Round 34 Regular Season

CONTEXT

The encounter between Nice and Metz ended with a 0-0 scoreline after both halves finished level at 0-0. Possession was closely contested with Nice holding 49 percent and Metz 51 percent. As the stronger side Nice failed to convert territorial edges into scoring opportunities while Metz maintained a compact defensive structure. No red cards were shown to either team and the match lacked major incidents that could have shifted momentum. Data indicated a significant deviation from expected patterns with the draw outcome misaligned to pre-match projections. Efficiency metrics remained in line with overall trends though quantitative xG figures were unavailable for deeper comparison. The result reflected mutual caution rather than dominance from the home side in this goalless affair.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Nice as the stronger team recorded a significant structural deviation from anticipated performance levels in the 0-0 draw.
  • Efficiency shift: The efficiency shift remained in line with pre-match patterns for both Nice and Metz.
  • xG alignment: xG data was unavailable so alignment with the 0-0 scoreline could not be assessed.
  • Market alignment: The draw outcome was not aligned with market expectations due to the significant deviation for Nice.
  • xG expectations: Without xG metrics available expectations for scoring could not be evaluated against the final result.
  • Event impact: No decisive events such as goals or cards occurred to impact the 0-0 outcome between Nice and Metz.
  • Red card distortion: Zero red cards for both teams produced no distortion from disciplinary events in the match.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

J. Pignard

France 25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

A. Drouet

1st Assistant

France

B. Parinet Le Tellier

2nd Assistant

France

E. Wattellier

4th Official

France

League averages

Ligue 1 Based on last 100 matches

Fouls / match 20.86
Yellow cards / match 3.2
Red cards / match 0.17
Penalties / match 0.28
Nice C. Puel
C. Puel
VS
Metz B. Tavenot
B. Tavenot
0.67
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
0.24
0.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Auxerre Rank: 70 L
Lens Rank: 82 D
Olympique Marseille Rank: 80 D
LOSC Lille Rank: 81 D
Le Havre Rank: 67 D
Strasbourg Rank: 77 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Lorient Rank: 75 L
Monaco Rank: 79 L
Le Havre Rank: 67 D
Paris Rank: 72 L
Olympique Marseille Rank: 79 L
Nantes Rank: 66 D
10
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
10 - 3 - 5
5

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Nice
73.88%
Draw
16.85%
Away Metz
9.27%

Movement

Changes since opening
Nice
+67.61%
Draw
-73.63%
Metz
+6.03%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
71.69
52.57
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Nice
Metz
Power Score
71.69
52.57
League Position
16
18
Global Rank
162
447

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Nice — Opponent-weighted form score
Metz — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Nice Metz

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Nice

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Metz

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —
Possession Efficiency data not available for this match.

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Nice ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Metz
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Nice Metz
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Nice Metz
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Nice
Metz
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Nice
vs
Metz
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Nice Metz
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Nice 0.00
Metz 0.00
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Nice Metz
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Nice 0.00
Metz 0.00
Nice
Metz
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • NCE had peak pressure around 65'.
  • NCE started the game with stronger pressure.
NCE Pressure MTZ Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: NCE reached the top pressure at 65' (80.09).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 18 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Nice NCE Home
18 matches
Metz MTZ Away
Match Record
10
Wins
5
3
Draws
3
5
Losses
10
Goals
27
Goals Scored
16
16
Goals Conceded
27
+11
Goal Difference
-11

Data last updated: 2026-05-17T18:45:21+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-4-2-1
Match Formation 4-3-3
Pitch
Y. Diouf
France
80 Y. Diouf
A. Mendy
France
33 A. Mendy
D. da Costa Santos
Brazil
4 D. da Costa Santos
K. Peprah Oppong
Ghana
37 K. Peprah Oppong
J. Clauss
Substitution
France
92 J. Clauss
M. Sanson
Substitution
France
8 M. Sanson
C. Vanhoutte
Substitution
Belgium
24 C. Vanhoutte
A. Abdi
Tunisia
2 A. Abdi
K. Boudache
Substitution
France
32 K. Boudache
S. Diop
Substitution
Morocco
10 S. Diop
S. Wahi
France
11 S. Wahi
Pitch
J. Fischer
Denmark
1 J. Fischer
M. Colin
France
2 M. Colin
T. Yegbe
Ghana
15 T. Yegbe
S. Sané
Senegal
38 S. Sané
B. Sarr
Senegal
70 B. Sarr
A. Touré
Substitution
Senegal
12 A. Touré
B. Stambouli
Substitution
France
21 B. Stambouli
B. Munongo
Substitution
France
33 B. Munongo
G. Abuashvili
Substitution
Georgia
9 G. Abuashvili
G. Kvilitaia
Georgia
11 G. Kvilitaia
G. Hein
France
10 G. Hein

General Information

Date & Time :
May 17, 2026, 07:00 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Ligue 1, France · Round 34 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Allianz Riviera
Capacity :
36178
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Jérémie Pignard
Aurélien Drouet
Brice Parinet Le Tellier
Eric Wattellier

Statistics

Possession
NCE
49%
MTZ
51%

Top Statistics

22 Shots 16
58 Dangerous attacks 38
49 Possession 51
10 Corners 4
15 Free kicks 11
2 Yellow Cards 1

Match Overview

5 Successful Dribbles 8
18 Throwins 13
28 Successful Dribbles Percentage 53
18 Dribble Attempts 15
17 Successful Headers 10
9 Goal Kicks 13
57 Ball Safe 63
13 Goal Attempts 8
5 Substitutions 4

Attacking

117 Attacks 108

Possession

50 Successful Long Passes Percentage 58
30 Long Passes 60
416 Successful Passes 442
15 Successful Long Passes 35
87 Successful Passes Percentage 87
479 Passes 509
21 Key Passes 13

Defensive

56 Duels Won 51
17 Tackles 22
5 Interceptions 6
4 Saves 4

Build-up

29 Total Crosses 18
11 Accurate Crosses 7

Discipline

11 Fouls 15
2 Offsides 2

Lineup

Referee : Jérémie Pignard

Starting XI ▼

80
Yehvann Diouf
Yehvann Diouf Goalkeeper
6.99
4
Dante
Dante Defender
6.6
33
Antoine Mendy
Antoine Mendy Defender
6.68
37
Kojo Peprah Oppong
Kojo Peprah Oppong Defender
6.79
2
Ali Abdi
Ali Abdi Midfielder
6.6
8
Morgan Sanson
Morgan Sanson Midfielder
6.57
20
Tom Louchet
Tom Louchet
Midfielder87'
6.79
24
Charles Vanhoutte
Charles Vanhoutte Midfielder
6.74
6
Hicham Boudaoui
Hicham Boudaoui
Midfielder46'
6.76
92
Jonathan Clauss
Jonathan Clauss Midfielder
7.12
90
Kevin Carlos
Kevin Carlos
Attacker78'
6.47
10
Sofiane Diop
Sofiane Diop Attacker
6.96
21
Isak Jansson
Isak Jansson
Attacker72'
6.63
11
Elye Wahi
Elye Wahi Attacker
6.68
32
Kaïl Boudache
Kaïl Boudache Attacker
6.54
25
Mohamed-Ali Cho
Mohamed-Ali Cho
Attacker46'
6.8
Referee : Jérémie Pignard

Starting XI ▼

1
Jonathan Fischer
Jonathan Fischer Goalkeeper
6.84
2
Maxime Colin
Maxime Colin Defender
6.6
15
Terry Yegbe
Terry Yegbe Defender
6.46
38
Sadibou Sané
Sadibou Sané Defender
6.8
70
Bouna Sarr
Bouna Sarr Defender
6.51
12
Alpha Touré
Alpha Touré Midfielder
6.58
4
Michel Mboula
Michel Mboula
Defender85'
6.7
21
Benjamin Stambouli
Benjamin Stambouli Midfielder
6.64
8
Boubacar Traoré
Boubacar Traoré
Midfielder65'
6.66
33
Believe Munongo
Believe Munongo Midfielder
6.52
5
Jean-Philippe Gbamin
Jean-Philippe Gbamin
Midfielder65'
6.59
9
Giorgi Abuashvili
Giorgi Abuashvili Attacker
6.56
35
Jahyann Pandore
Jahyann Pandore
Attacker75'
6.52
10
Gauthier Hein
Gauthier Hein Attacker
7.16
11
Giorgi Kvilitaia
Giorgi Kvilitaia Attacker
6.86

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Tom Louchet → Morgan Sanson
9th Substitution
87'
85'
Event
Michel Mboula → Alpha Touré
8th Substitution
Event
Kevin Carlos → Jonathan Clauss
7th Substitution
78'
Event
Kojo Peprah Oppong
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
75'
75'
Event
Jahyann Pandore → Giorgi Abuashvili
6th Substitution
73'
Event
Boubacar Traoré
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
Event
Isak Jansson → Sofiane Diop
5th Substitution
72'
65'
Event
Jean-Philippe Gbamin → Believe Munongo
3rd Substitution
65'
Event
Boubacar Traoré → Benjamin Stambouli
4th Substitution
Event
Mohamed-Ali Cho → Kaïl Boudache
2nd Substitution
46'
Event
Hicham Boudaoui → Charles Vanhoutte
1st Substitution
46'
1ST-HALF
Event
Elye Wahi
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
35'

Match Commentary

90
Attempt Attempt
Bouna Sarr takes a right-footed shot but misses.
90
Attempt Attempt
Boubacar Traore takes a right-footed shot but misses.
90
Attempt Attempt
Isak Jansson's right-footed shot is saved.
87
Update Update
Tom Louchet is on, and Morgan Sanson is off.
87
Attempt Attempt
Dante Bonfim Costa attempts a header but misses the shot.
85
Attempt Attempt
Giorgi Kvilitaia takes a left-footed shot, but it is blocked.
85
Update Update
Urie-Michel Mboula comes on for Alpha Toure.
78
Update Update
Kevin Carlos Omoruyi Benjamin comes on for Jonathan Clauss.
77
Attempt Attempt
Ali Abdi takes a right-footed shot but misses.
75
Update Update
Jahyann Pandore comes on for Giorgi Abuashvili.
75
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Kojo Peprah Oppong receives a yellow card.
73
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Boubacar Traore receives a yellow card.
72
Update Update
Isak Jansson comes on, and Sofiane Diop goes off.
72
Attempt Attempt
Mohamed Ali-Cho takes a left-footed shot but misses.
72
Attempt Attempt
Mohamed Ali-Cho takes a left-footed shot but misses.
71
Attempt Attempt
Giorgi Abuashvili takes a left-footed shot, but it's blocked.
71
Attempt Attempt
Giorgi Kvilitaia takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
67
Attempt Attempt
Giorgi Abuashvili takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
66
Attempt Attempt
Ali Abdi takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
65
Update Update
Boubacar Traore comes on for Benjamin Stambouli.
65
Update Update
Jean-Philippe Gbamin is on, and Believe Munongo is off.
62
Attempt Attempt
Sofiane Diop takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
58
Attempt Attempt
Ali Abdi attempts a header but misses the shot.
58
Update Update
Dante Bonfim Costa's header is blocked.
57
Attempt Attempt
Sofiane Diop takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
55
Update Update
Mohamed Ali-Cho takes a header, but it misses the target.
50
Attempt Attempt
Gauthier Hein takes a left-footed shot, but it is saved.
49
Attempt Attempt
Antoine Mendy takes a right-footed shot but misses.
48
Attempt Attempt
Alpha Toure takes a right-footed shot but misses.
47
Attempt Attempt
Hichem Boudaoui takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
47
Attempt Attempt
Morgan Sanson takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
46
Update Update
Hichem Boudaoui is on, and Charles Vanhoutte is off.
46
Update Update
Mohamed Ali-Cho is on, and Kail Boudache is off.
45
Attempt Attempt
Morgan Sanson takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
45
Update Update
Ali Abdi attempts a header, but it misses the target.
44
Attempt Attempt
Sofiane Diop takes a right-footed shot but misses.
40
Attempt Attempt
Charles Vanhoutte takes a right-footed shot but misses.
35
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Sepe Elye Wahi receives a yellow card.
26
Attempt Attempt
Ali Abdi attempts a header but misses the shot.
25
Attempt Attempt
Kail Boudache takes a left-footed shot, but it's blocked.
23
Attempt Attempt
Bouna Sarr takes a right-footed shot but misses.
21
Attempt Attempt
Giorgi Kvilitaia attempts a header but misses the shot.
16
Attempt Attempt
Shot by Believe Munongo with his left foot is saved.
15
Attempt Attempt
Giorgi Abuashvili's right-footed shot is blocked.
14
Attempt Attempt
Giorgi Abuashvili takes a left-footed shot, but it is saved.
13
Attempt Attempt
Sadibou Sane's right-footed shot is blocked.
13
Attempt Attempt
Giorgi Abuashvili takes a left-footed shot, but it is saved.
12
Attempt Attempt
Sofiane Diop takes a right-footed shot but misses.
9
Attempt Attempt
Giorgi Abuashvili takes a right-footed shot but misses.
8
Attempt Attempt
Kail Boudache takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
1
Update Update
Kick-off! The referee is Jeremie Pignard.

CONCLUSION

Overall the 0-0 draw between Nice and Metz demonstrated defensive priorities that prevented any breakthrough despite even possession distribution. The absence of xG data limited analysis of chance creation yet the scoreline aligned with a low-event contest free of red cards. Significant deviation from expected results highlighted performance inconsistencies particularly for the stronger home side. Efficiency remained consistent with broader trends while market projections proved unrepresentative of the actual outcome. Both teams completed the fixture without notable second-half shifts or disciplinary interruptions. This result underscores the challenges of converting possession into goals in tightly contested matches where caution prevails over risk. The final tally accurately captured the balanced yet goalless nature of proceedings.

Nice vs Metz preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

About BestPreviews Methodology & FAQ More Match Reports

How We Build This Analysis

BestPreviews combines tactical context, lineup quality, xG trends, and form data across competitions. Read the full methodology and FAQ.

Related Football Previews

Explore League Previews

Ligue 1, France View all league clusters View methodology and FAQ

Author

Alf Indseth

Alf Indseth writes football-focused analysis that looks beyond match results to explore form, value, and market context.