Lorient vs Le Havre Prediction, Preview and Stats

France flag 2025/2026 Ligue 1, France
Stade Yves Allainmat - Le Moustoir Sun, 17 May - 7:00 PM
Ligue 1
Lorient LOR
Versus
Le Havre LEH
KICKOFF : Sun, 17 May - 7:00 PM
Round 34 Regular Season

CONTEXT

Lorient host Le Havre at Stade Yves Allainmat - Le Moustoir in a crucial Ligue 1 regular season clash during the 2025/2026 campaign. Sitting 9th in the table, Lorient boast a stronger recent form score of 18.61 compared to Le Havre's 9.72, suggesting momentum on their side despite Le Havre's slight edge in overall power ratings at 67.45 against 62.69, a 4.8-point advantage. Home advantage could prove pivotal for Lorient, who have climbed to mid-table security while Le Havre languish in 14th, battling relegation pressures. Both sides lack detailed recent outing data, but Lorient's higher league position underscores their structural solidity this season. Expect a tight encounter where form clashes with underlying strength, with set-piece and efficiency metrics unavailable due to missing xG data. Le Havre's visitor status adds intrigue to this balanced matchup.

TL;DR

  • Structural: Le Havre possess a 4.8-point power advantage with a 67.45 rating over Lorient's 62.69.
  • Form: Lorient hold a superior form score of 18.61 compared to Le Havre's 9.72.
  • Squad: Lorient occupy 9th place in Ligue 1, while Le Havre sit 14th.
  • Efficiency: Efficiency data is unavailable for both teams.
  • Transition: Transition play metrics are not available.
  • Set pieces: Set piece performance data unavailable due to lack of xG information and low confidence proxies.
  • xVariable: xG data unavailable for attack and defense on both sides.
  • Market: Lorient 36% (Δ+0%) | Draw 27.6% (Δ+0%) | Le Havre 36.4% (Δ+0%).
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Jan 25 vs Team A
Feb 1 vs Team B
Feb 8 vs Team C
Lorient O. Pantaloni
O. Pantaloni
VS
Le Havre D. Digard
D. Digard
1.67
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
0.86
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Metz Rank: 62 W
Paris Saint Germain Rank: 95 D
Strasbourg Rank: 78 L
Olympique Marseille Rank: 79 W
Olympique Lyonnais Rank: 83 L
Paris Rank: 73 D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Olympique Marseille Rank: 79 L
LOSC Lille Rank: 81 D
Metz Rank: 61 D
Angers SCO Rank: 67 D
Nice Rank: 72 D
Auxerre Rank: 71 D
1
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
1 - 3 - 1
1
No sidelined player data available.

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Lorient
36.03%
Draw
27.59%
Away Le Havre
36.39%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
62.69
67.45
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Lorient
Le Havre
Power Score
62.69
67.45
League Position
9
14
Global Rank
107
267

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Lorient — Opponent-weighted form score
Le Havre — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Lorient Le Havre

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 5 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Lorient LOR Home
5 matches
Le Havre LEH Away
Match Record
1
Wins
1
3
Draws
3
1
Losses
1
Goals
8
Goals Scored
9
9
Goals Conceded
8
-1
Goal Difference
+1

Data last updated: 2026-05-13T01:08:41+00:00

STARTING XI - EXPECTED

Pitch
Y. Mvogo
38 Y. Mvogo
N. Adjei
32 N. Adjei
M. Talbi
3 M. Talbi
A. Faye
25 A. Faye
P. Katseris
77 P. Katseris
N. Cadiou
8 N. Cadiou
L. Abergel
6 L. Abergel
K. Kouassi
43 K. Kouassi
J. Makengo
17 J. Makengo
K. Dermane
29 K. Dermane
T. Aiyegun
15 T. Aiyegun
Pitch
M. Diaw
99 M. Diaw
Y. Zouaoui
18 Y. Zouaoui
G. Lloris
4 G. Lloris
T. Pembele
32 T. Pembele
A. Sangante
93 A. Sangante
S. Ebonog
26 S. Ebonog
R. N'Diaye
14 R. N'Diaye
I. Soumaré
45 I. Soumaré
S. Boufal
17 S. Boufal
F. Doucouré
13 F. Doucouré
M. Samatta
25 M. Samatta

General Information

Date & Time :
May 17, 2026, 07:00 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Ligue 1, France · Round 34 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Stade Yves Allainmat - Le Moustoir
Capacity :
18110
Pitch Surface :
Artificial turf
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair

Expected Lineup

Starting XI ▼

38
Yvon Mvogo
Yvon Mvogo Goalkeeper
6.84
17
Jean-Victor Makengo
Jean-Victor Makengo Midfielder
6.96
29
Karim Dermane
Karim Dermane Midfielder
6.73
43
Arsène Kouassi
Arsène Kouassi Midfielder
6.92
77
Panos Katseris
Panos Katseris Midfielder
6.71
15
Aiyegun Tosin
Aiyegun Tosin Centre Forward
6.7
25
Abdoulaye Faye
Abdoulaye Faye Left Back
6.64
3
Montassar Talbi
Montassar Talbi Centre Back
6.81
6
Laurent Abergel
Laurent Abergel Central Midfield
6.8
8
Noah Doriann Cadiou
Noah Doriann Cadiou Central Midfield
6.82
32
Nathaniel Adjei
Nathaniel Adjei Right Back
6.61

Starting XI ▼

99
Mory Diaw
Mory Diaw Goalkeeper
6.92
25
Ally Samatta
Ally Samatta Centre Forward
6.65
14
Rassoul Ndiaye
Rassoul Ndiaye Defensive Midfield
6.98
4
Gautier Lloris
Gautier Lloris Left Back
6.94
13
Fodé Doucouré
Fodé Doucouré Right Wing
6.71
17
Sofiane Boufal
Sofiane Boufal Attacking Midfield
6.84
18
Yanis Zouaoui
Yanis Zouaoui Left Back
6.81
26
Simon Ebonog
Simon Ebonog Defensive Midfield
6.62
32
Timothée Pembélé
Timothée Pembélé Right Back
6.5
45
Issa Soumaré
Issa Soumaré Left Wing
7.08
93
Arouna Sangante
Arouna Sangante Right Back
6.77

CONCLUSION

This Ligue 1 showdown pits Lorient's home form and league standing against Le Havre's power edge, promising a fiercely contested battle at Le Moustoir. Lorient's better recent form could fuel an upset bid, but Le Havre's superior rating suggests resilience on the road. With positions critical—9th versus 14th—expect pragmatic tactics amid absent advanced metrics. Lorient may lean on crowd support for breakthroughs, while Le Havre target counter opportunities. A draw feels plausible in this even projection, yet Lorient's momentum tips slight favoritism their way.

Lorient vs Le Havre preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

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