Aston Villa vs Liverpool Prediction, Preview and Stats

England flag 2025/2026 Premier League, England
Villa Park Fri, 15 May - 7:00 PM
Premier League
Aston Villa AVL
Versus
Liverpool LIV
KICKOFF : Fri, 15 May - 7:00 PM
Round 37 Regular Season

CONTEXT

Aston Villa host Liverpool in Premier League (Regular Season) at Villa Park. Domestically, Aston Villa sit 5th in the table while Liverpool are 4th. Power ranking favours Liverpool by 1.3 points heading into this fixture.

TL;DR

  • Structural: Liverpool possess a 1.3-point power advantage over Aston Villa, positioning them as the marginally stronger side.
  • Form: Liverpool's form score of 24.78 surpasses Aston Villa's 16.44, indicating better recent momentum.
  • Squad: Liverpool rank 4th in the league, one place above Aston Villa's 5th, highlighting comparable squad quality.
  • Efficiency: Efficiency metrics are unavailable for this Premier League matchup.
  • Transition: Transition play data remains unspecified for both Aston Villa and Liverpool.
  • Set pieces: Set piece performance data is unavailable due to lack of xG information for both teams.
  • xVariable: Advanced xG variables are not accessible, limiting deeper set-piece analysis.
  • Market: Aston Villa 26.3% (Δ+0%) | Draw 23.3% (Δ+0%) | Liverpool 50.4% (Δ+0%).
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Jan 25 vs Team A
Feb 1 vs Team B
Feb 8 vs Team C
Aston Villa U. Emery Etxegoien
U. Emery Etxegoien
VS
Liverpool A. Slot
A. Slot
1.64
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.64
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Burnley Rank: 77 D
Tottenham Hotspur Rank: 84 L
Fulham Rank: 85 L
Sunderland Rank: 81 W
Nottingham Forest Rank: 88 D
West Ham United Rank: 84 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Chelsea Rank: 88 D
Manchester United Rank: 91 L
Crystal Palace Rank: 86 W
Everton Rank: 88 W
Fulham Rank: 86 W
Brighton & Hove Albion Rank: 90 L
8
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
8 - 11 - 29
29
No sidelined player data available.

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Aston Villa
26.27%
Draw
23.31%
Away Liverpool
50.41%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
91
92.32
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Aston Villa
Liverpool
Power Score
91
92.32
League Position
5
4
Global Rank
10
7

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Aston Villa — Opponent-weighted form score
Liverpool — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Aston Villa Liverpool

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 48 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Aston Villa AVL Home
48 matches
Liverpool LIV Away
Match Record
8
Wins
29
11
Draws
11
29
Losses
8
Goals
52
Goals Scored
89
89
Goals Conceded
52
-37
Goal Difference
+37

Data last updated: 2026-05-09T01:09:41+00:00

TEAM FORMATION

Official lineups and formations are usually announced 60–90 minutes before kickoff. Check back closer to the match to see the starting XIs here.

General Information

Date & Time :
May 15, 2026, 07:00 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Premier League, England · Round 37 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Villa Park
Capacity :
42640
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair

Squad

Squad ▼

23
Damián Emiliano Martínez
Damián Emiliano Martínez Goalkeeper
40
Marco Bizot
Marco Bizot Goalkeeper
5
Tyrone Mings
Tyrone Mings Defender
2
Matty Cash
Matty Cash Defender
4
Ezri Konsa Ngoyo
Ezri Konsa Ngoyo Defender
12
Lucas Digne
Lucas Digne Defender
3
Victor Nilsson Lindelöf
Victor Nilsson Lindelöf Defender
14
Pau Francisco Torres
Pau Francisco Torres Defender
22
Ian Maatsen
Ian Maatsen Defender
16
Andrés García Robledo
Andrés García Robledo Defender
6
Ross Barkley
Ross Barkley Midfielder
8
Youri Tielemans
Youri Tielemans Midfielder
44
Boubacar Kamara
Boubacar Kamara Midfielder
7
John McGinn
John McGinn Midfielder
10
Emiliano Buendía
Emiliano Buendía Midfielder
21
Douglas Luiz Soares de Paulo
Douglas Luiz Soares de Paulo Midfielder
27
Morgan Rogers
Morgan Rogers Midfielder
24
Amadou Zeund Georges Mvom Onana
Amadou Zeund Georges Mvom Onana Midfielder
9
Harvey Elliot
Harvey Elliot Midfielder
26
Lamar Bogarde
Lamar Bogarde Midfielder
18
Kevin Oghenetega Tamaraebi Bakumo-Abraham
Kevin Oghenetega Tamaraebi Bakumo-Abraham Attacker
11
Ollie Watkins
Ollie Watkins Attacker
31
Leon Bailey Butler
Leon Bailey Butler Attacker
19
Jadon Sancho
Jadon Sancho Attacker
47
Alysson Edward Franco da Rocha dos Santos
Alysson Edward Franco da Rocha dos Santos Attacker

Squad ▼

28
Freddie Woodman
Freddie Woodman Goalkeeper
1
Alisson Ramsés Becker
Alisson Ramsés Becker Goalkeeper
25
Giorgi Mamardashvili
Giorgi Mamardashvili Goalkeeper
95
Harvey Peter Davies
Harvey Peter Davies Goalkeeper
26
Andrew Robertson
Andrew Robertson Defender
2
Joe Gomez
Joe Gomez Defender
4
Virgil van Dijk
Virgil van Dijk Defender
5
Ibrahima Konaté
Ibrahima Konaté Defender
46
Rhys Williams
Rhys Williams Defender
30
Jeremie Frimpong
Jeremie Frimpong Defender
47
Calvin Ramsey
Calvin Ramsey Defender
12
Conor Bradley
Conor Bradley Defender
6
Milos Kerkez
Milos Kerkez Defender
15
Giovanni Leoni
Giovanni Leoni Defender
10
Alexis Mac Allister
Alexis Mac Allister Midfielder
3
Wataru Endo
Wataru Endo Midfielder
8
Dominik Szoboszlai
Dominik Szoboszlai Midfielder
17
Curtis Jones
Curtis Jones Midfielder
38
Ryan Gravenberch
Ryan Gravenberch Midfielder
7
Florian Wirtz
Florian Wirtz Midfielder
43
Stefan Bajcetic Maquieira
Stefan Bajcetic Maquieira Midfielder
42
Trey Nyoni
Trey Nyoni Midfielder
11
Mohamed Salah Ghaly
Mohamed Salah Ghaly Attacker
18
Cody Mathès Gakpo
Cody Mathès Gakpo Attacker
9
Alexander Isak
Alexander Isak Attacker
14
Federico Chiesa
Federico Chiesa Attacker
22
Hugo Ekitike
Hugo Ekitike Attacker
73
Rio Ngumoha
Rio Ngumoha Attacker

CONCLUSION

Overall, the structural indicators point toward Liverpool holding the stronger pre-match profile. Power rankings give Liverpool a 1.3-point edge. External projection is Aston Villa 25.9%, draw 23.3%, and Liverpool 50.9%. That projection profile aligns with the structural signals. The balance of play should hinge on execution in transitions and set-piece phases.

Aston Villa vs Liverpool preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

About BestPreviews Methodology & FAQ More Match Reports

How We Build This Analysis

BestPreviews combines tactical context, lineup quality, xG trends, and form data across competitions. Read the full methodology and FAQ.

Related Football Previews

Explore League Previews

Premier League, England View all league clusters View methodology and FAQ