Motor Lublin vs Cracovia Kraków Prediction, Preview and Stats

Poland flag 2025/2026 Ekstraklasa, Poland
Arena Lublin Sat, 16 May - 12:45 PM
Ekstraklasa
Motor Lublin Motor Lublin
3 – 3
Cracovia Kraków Cracovia Kraków
Full Time Sat, 16 May 12:45 PM
Round 33 Regular Season
Kacper Karasek - 90+1'
Karol Czubak - 88', 37'
Goal
|
Goal
Gabriel Charpentier - 82'
Amir Al-Ammari - 63'
Mateusz Klich - 8'

CONTEXT

Motor Lublin hosted Cracovia Kraków in a thrilling encounter that concluded with a 3-3 draw. The home side, considered the stronger team, dominated possession with 64 percent compared to their opponent's 36 percent. Both teams entered the halftime break level at 1-1, setting the stage for an intense second half. Despite the expectations surrounding Motor Lublin, the match ended in a stalemate that highlighted the competitive nature of the fixture. The deviation from anticipated outcomes was moderate at 8.1 percent, primarily affecting the home team. This result underscores the unpredictability inherent in such clashes where possession advantages do not always translate directly into victory. The game featured dynamic shifts and equal scoring opportunities that kept spectators engaged throughout.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: A moderate structural deviation of 8.1 percent was observed for Motor Lublin.
  • Efficiency shift: The efficiency shift remained in line with pre-match projections.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment assessment was not possible without available metrics.
  • Market alignment: The final outcome proved consistent with market alignment indicators.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations could not be evaluated due to missing data points.
  • Event impact: The 3-3 draw significantly impacted the overall standings for both sides.
  • Red card distortion: Absence of red cards ensured no distortion occurred in match proceedings.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

S. Marciniak

Poland 25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

T. Listkiewicz

1st Assistant

Poland

K. Nejman

2nd Assistant

Poland

K. Wójcik

4th Official

Poland

League averages

Ekstraklasa Based on last 100 matches

Fouls / match 21.82
Yellow cards / match 3.48
Red cards / match 0.2
Penalties / match 0.19
Motor Lublin M. Stolarski
M. Stolarski
VS
Cracovia Kraków B. Grzelak
B. Grzelak
1.44
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1
0.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Wisła Płock Rank: 57 W
Lech Poznań Rank: 71 L
Widzew Lodz Rank: 58 L
Katowice Rank: 65 L
Raków Częstochowa Rank: 69 D
Radomiak Radom Rank: 61 D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Radomiak Radom Rank: 62 D
Zagłębie Lubin Rank: 62 D
Pogoń Szczecin Rank: 61 D
Raków Częstochowa Rank: 69 L
Arka Gdynia Rank: 56 D
Górnik Zabrze Rank: 67 L
1
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
1 - 0 - 2
2

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Motor Lublin
3.61%
Draw
91.93%
Away Cracovia Kraków
4.47%

Movement

Changes since opening
Motor Lublin
-1.34%
Draw
+4.1%
Cracovia Kraków
-2.76%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
60.15
59.5
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Motor Lublin
Cracovia Kraków
Power Score
60.15
59.5
League Position
11
14
Global Rank
477
494

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Motor Lublin — Opponent-weighted form score
Cracovia Kraków — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Motor Lublin Cracovia Kraków

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Motor Lublin

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Cracovia Kraków

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Motor Lublin ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Cracovia Kraków
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
22.89
55.83
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
55.83
22.89
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Motor Lublin -3.05 Efficiency Index
vs
Cracovia Kraków +3.05 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Motor Lublin
Cracovia Kraków
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Motor Lublin ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Cracovia Kraków
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Motor Lublin Cracovia Kraków
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Motor Lublin Cracovia Kraków
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Motor Lublin
Cracovia Kraków
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Motor Lublin
vs
Cracovia Kraków
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Motor Lublin Cracovia Kraków
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Motor Lublin 0.23
Cracovia Kraków 0.27
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Motor Lublin Cracovia Kraków
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Motor Lublin 0.05
Cracovia Kraków 0.06
Motor Lublin
Cracovia Kraków
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • Motor Lublin had peak pressure around 30'.
  • Cracovia Kraków started the game with stronger pressure.
Motor Lublin Pressure Cracovia Kraków Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: Motor Lublin reached the top pressure at 30' (78.59).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 3 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Motor Lublin Motor Lublin Home
3 matches
Cracovia Kraków Cracovia Kraków Away
Match Record
1
Wins
2
0
Draws
0
2
Losses
1
Goals
4
Goals Scored
8
8
Goals Conceded
4
-4
Goal Difference
+4

Data last updated: 2026-05-18T08:55:29+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-3-3
Match Formation 3-4-2-1
Pitch
G. Tratnik
Slovenia
33 G. Tratnik
P. Stolarski
Substitution
Poland
28 P. Stolarski
M. Bartoš
Slovakia
39 M. Bartoš
H. Matthys
Belgium
3 H. Matthys
F. Luberecki
Poland
24 F. Luberecki
B. Wolski
Poland
68 (C) B. Wolski
S. Samper Montaña
Substitution
Spain
6 S. Samper Montaña
I. dos Santos Rodrigues
Substitution
Portugal
7 I. dos Santos Rodrigues
M. Ndiaye
Substitution
Senegal
30 M. Ndiaye
K. Czubak
Poland
9 K. Czubak
B. van Hoeven
Substitution
Netherlands
19 B. van Hoeven
Pitch
S. Madejski
Poland
13 S. Madejski
M. Perković
Croatia
39 M. Perković
B. Šutalo
Croatia
21 B. Šutalo
O. Wójcik
Poland
66 O. Wójcik
K. Knap
Substitution
Poland
20 K. Knap
A. Al-Ammari
Sweden
6 A. Al-Ammari
M. Klich
Substitution
Poland
43 (C) M. Klich
D. Piła
Poland
79 D. Piła
P. Sans Lopez
Substitution
Spain
11 P. Sans Lopez
A. Hasić
Substitution
Bosnia and Herzegovina
14 A. Hasić
K. Zahiroleslam
Substitution
United States
18 K. Zahiroleslam

General Information

Date & Time :
May 16, 2026, 12:45 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Ekstraklasa, Poland · Round 33 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Arena Lublin
Capacity :
15243
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Szymon Marciniak
Tomasz Listkiewicz
K. Nejman
Karol Wójcik

Statistics

Possession
Motor Lublin
57%
Cracovia Kraków
43%

Top Statistics

3 Goals 3
4 Big Chances Created 2
7 Shots 7
53 Dangerous attacks 62
64 Possession 36
2 Corners 7
12 Free kicks 14
2 Yellow Cards 5

Match Overview

5 Substitutions 5
1 Hit Woodwork 0
2 Injuries 2
2 Successful Dribbles 6
9 Goal Attempts 11
3 Assists 2
17 Successful Dribbles Percentage 33
6 Goal Kicks 9
17 Throwins 15
90 Ball Safe 68
12 Dribble Attempts 18

Attacking

2 Big Chances Missed 0
102 Attacks 90

Possession

83 Successful Passes Percentage 73
407 Successful Passes 193
489 Passes 264
46 Long Passes 51
48 Successful Long Passes Percentage 45
22 Successful Long Passes 23
9 Key Passes 11

Defensive

4 Saves 3
47 Duels Won 51
4 Interceptions 14
19 Tackles 22

Build-up

19 Total Crosses 25
8 Accurate Crosses 8

Discipline

14 Fouls 12
1 Offsides 1

Lineup

Referee : Szymon Marciniak

Starting XI ▼

33
Gasper Tratnik
Gasper Tratnik Goalkeeper
6.74
3
Hervé Matthys
Hervé Matthys Defender
6.71
24
Filip Luberecki
Filip Luberecki Defender
6.26
28
Pawel Stolarski
Pawel Stolarski Defender
6.67
29
Thomas Santos
Thomas Santos
Defender65'
6.02
39
Marek Bartos
Marek Bartos Defender
6.56
6
Sergi Samper
Sergi Samper Midfielder
6.99
21
Jakub Labojko
Jakub Labojko
Midfielder59'
6.45
7
Ivo Rodrigues
Ivo Rodrigues Midfielder
6.44
10
Kacper Karasek
Kacper Karasek
Midfielder59'
7.12
68
Bartosz Wolski
Bartosz Wolski (C) Midfielder
7.46
9
Karol Czubak
Karol Czubak Attacker
2
8.57
19
Bradly van Hoeven
Bradly van Hoeven Attacker
6.83
11
Fábio Ronaldo
Fábio Ronaldo
Midfielder65'
6.29
30
Mbaye Ndiaye
Mbaye Ndiaye Attacker
6.1
17
Filip Wojcik
Filip Wojcik
Defender78'
6.68
Referee : Szymon Marciniak

Starting XI ▼

13
Sebastian Madejski
Sebastian Madejski Goalkeeper
6.35
21
Bosko Sutalo
Bosko Sutalo Defender
6.86
39
Mauro Perkovic
Mauro Perkovic Defender
6.41
66
Oskar Wojcik
Oskar Wojcik Defender
6.4
6
Amir Al-Ammari
Amir Al-Ammari Midfielder
8.11
20
Karol Knap
Karol Knap Midfielder
6.83
61
Brahim Traoré
Brahim Traoré
Defender67'
6.12
43
Mateusz Klich
Mateusz Klich (C) Midfielder
7.53
10
Maxime Dominguez
Maxime Dominguez
Midfielder90+3'
79
Dominik Pila
Dominik Pila Midfielder
6.43
11
Pau Sans
Pau Sans Attacker
6.56
70
Dijon Kameri
Dijon Kameri
Midfielder58'
6.74
14
Ajdin Hasic
Ajdin Hasic Attacker
7.38
29
Jean Batoum
Jean Batoum
Attacker90+4'
18
Kahveh Zahiroleslam
Kahveh Zahiroleslam Attacker
6.51
99
Gabriel Charpentier
Gabriel Charpentier
Attacker58'
7.88

Events

2ND-HALF
90+4'
Event
Jean Batoum → Ajdin Hasic
10th Substitution
90+3'
Event
Maxime Dominguez → Mateusz Klich
9th Substitution
Event
Kacper Karasek
Header / 6th Goal
90+1'
Event
Karol Czubak
Header / 5th Goal
88'
82'
Event
Gabriel Charpentier
Right foot shot / 4th Goal
Event
Filip Wojcik → Mbaye Ndiaye
8th Substitution
78'
76'
Event
Ajdin Hasic
Foul / 7th Yellowcard
67'
Event
Brahim Traoré → Karol Knap
7th Substitution
Event
Fábio Ronaldo → Bradly van Hoeven
5th Substitution
65'
Event
Thomas Santos → Pawel Stolarski
6th Substitution
65'
63'
Event
Amir Al-Ammari
Header / 3rd Goal
Event
Kacper Karasek → Ivo Rodrigues
3rd Substitution
59'
Event
Jakub Labojko → Sergi Samper
4th Substitution
59'
58'
Event
Gabriel Charpentier → Kahveh Zahiroleslam
1st Substitution
58'
Event
Dijon Kameri → Pau Sans
2nd Substitution
47'
Event
Oskar Wojcik
Foul / 6th Yellowcard
1ST-HALF
Event
Sergi Samper
Foul / 5th Yellowcard
45'
44'
Event
Karol Knap
Time wasting / 4th Yellowcard
41'
Event
Dominik Pila
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
Event
Karol Czubak
Header / 2nd Goal
37'
20'
Event
Pau Sans
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
Event
Ivo Rodrigues
Argument / 1st Yellowcard
14'
8'
Event
Mateusz Klich
Right foot shot / 1st Goal

Match Commentary

90
Update Update
Jean Florent Batoum replaces Ajdin Hasic.
90
Attempt Attempt
Kacper Karasek takes a shot with his head and scores.
90
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Kacper Karasek scores, bringing the match to 3-3.
90
Update Update
Maxime Dominguez comes on for Mateusz Klich.
88
Update Update
Karol Czubak scores with a header.
82
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Gabriel Charpentier scores, making it 3-1.
82
Attempt Attempt
Gabriel Charpentier takes a shot with his right foot and scores.
81
Attempt Attempt
Dijon Kameri's right-footed shot is blocked.
81
Attempt Attempt
Gabriel Charpentier takes a shot with his right foot and scores.
78
Update Update
Filip Wojcik comes on for Mbaye Jacques Ndiaye.
76
Attempt Attempt
Karol Czubak attempts a header but misses the shot.
73
Attempt Attempt
Dijon Kameri takes a right-footed shot but misses.
67
Update Update
Brahim Traore comes on for Karol Knap.
65
Substitution Substitution
Thomas Santos is substituted for Pawel Stolarski.
65
Update Update
Fabio Ronaldo comes on for Bradly van Hoeven.
63
Attempt Attempt
Kacper Karasek has a shot with his right foot, but it is blocked.
63
Update Update
Amir Al Ammari scores with a header.
62
Attempt Attempt
Dijon Kameri takes a right-footed shot, but it is saved.
60
Attempt Attempt
Amir Al Ammari's left-footed shot is saved.
58
Update Update
Jakub Labojko comes on for Sergi Samper Montana.
58
Update Update
Kacper Karasek is on, and Ivo Rodrigues is off.
58
Substitution Substitution
Dijon Kameri is substituted for Pau Sans Lopez.
58
Update Update
Gabriel Charpentier comes on for Kahveh Zahiroleslam.
57
Attempt Attempt
Mbaye Jacques Ndiaye takes a left-footed shot, but it is saved.
47
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Oskar Wojcik receives a yellow card.
45
Attempt Attempt
Amir Al Ammari takes a right-footed shot but misses.
45
Attempt Attempt
Mauro Perkovic's header is saved.
44
Attempt Attempt
Bradly van Hoeven takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
44
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Karol Knap receives a yellow card.
31
Attempt Attempt
Mbaye Jacques Ndiaye takes a left-footed shot, but it is saved.
28
Attempt Attempt
Karol Czubak takes a shot with his right foot, but it is blocked.
25
Attempt Attempt
Mbaye Jacques Ndiaye takes a right-footed shot, but it is saved.
24
Attempt Attempt
Pau Sans Lopez takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
16
Attempt Attempt
Pau Sans Lopez takes a right-footed shot but misses.
13
Attempt Attempt
Sergi Samper Montana takes a right-footed shot but misses.
9
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Mateusz Klich scores, making it 1-0.
8
Attempt Attempt
Ajdin Hasic takes a left-footed shot, but it's blocked.
8
Attempt Attempt
Mateusz Klich scores with a right-footed shot.
5
Attempt Attempt
Amir Al Ammari takes a left-footed shot but misses.
5
Attempt Attempt
Ajdin Hasic's left-footed shot is saved.
5
Attempt Attempt
Mateusz Klich scores with a right-footed shot.
3
Attempt Attempt
Ajdin Hasic takes a left-footed shot but misses.
1
Attempt Attempt
Karol Czubak takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.

CONCLUSION

The 3-3 draw between Motor Lublin and Cracovia Kraków delivered an action-packed spectacle that defied initial expectations. With Motor controlling the majority of possession, the inability to secure a win points to missed opportunities in front of goal. Cracovia demonstrated resilience by matching the home side's output despite lower ball control. This result leaves both teams reflecting on defensive lapses that allowed multiple goals. The even halftime score of 1-1 provided a foundation for the second-half fireworks. Overall, the performance levels suggest areas for improvement in clinical finishing and tactical adjustments moving forward. Such matches emphasize the fine margins in football where dominance in one area fails to guarantee success on the scoreboard.

Motor Lublin vs Cracovia Kraków preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

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