Heidenheim vs FSV Mainz 05 Prediction, Preview and Stats

Germany flag 2025/2026 Bundesliga, Germany
Walter-Birkhold-Jugendstadion Sat, 16 May - 1:30 PM
Bundesliga
Heidenheim HDH
0 Winner 2
FSV Mainz 05 M05
Full Time Sat, 16 May 1:30 PM
Round 34 Regular Season
|
Goal
Nadiem Amiri - 43'
Phillip Tietz - 7'

CONTEXT

Heidenheim faced FSV Mainz 05 in a Bundesliga encounter that ended with a 0-2 scoreline for the away side. The halftime score stood at 0-2, giving Mainz a commanding position from the outset. Heidenheim managed 53 percent possession but generated 2.18 in expected goals, while Mainz recorded 3.15 xG with 47 percent possession. The xG differential of minus 0.97 reflected Mainz's superiority in creating quality chances. No red cards were shown to either team, allowing for a full-strength contest throughout. The stronger team, FSV Mainz 05, emerged as the winner in line with their xG performance. This outcome proved consistent with the expected goals data despite some pre-match projections suggesting otherwise. The match featured no major second-half adjustments from either side.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Final score: Heidenheim 0-2 FSV Mainz 05. FSV Mainz 05 showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency remained in line with the performance levels observed for both sides.
  • xG alignment: The final result aligned well with the xG figures recorded during the match.
  • Market alignment: Pre-match market figures did not align with the eventual match outcome.
  • xG expectations: FSV Mainz 05 met xG expectations through their dominant display.
  • Event impact: The halftime lead created a lasting event impact on the proceedings.
  • Red card distortion: Red card distortion played no role as no dismissals occurred in the game.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

R. Hartmann

Germany 25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

T. Schultes

1st Assistant

Germany

M. Achmüller

2nd Assistant

Germany

P. Schwengers

4th Official

Germany

League averages

Bundesliga Based on last 100 matches

Fouls / match 19.29
Yellow cards / match 3.55
Red cards / match 0.2
Penalties / match 0.33
Heidenheim F. Schmidt
F. Schmidt
VS
FSV Mainz 05 U. Fischer
U. Fischer
0.91
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.39
1.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
FC Köln Rank: 76 W
FC Bayern München Rank: 100 D
St. Pauli Rank: 72 W
SC Freiburg Rank: 83 L
FC Union Berlin Rank: 76 W
Borussia Mönchengladbach Rank: 77 D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
FC Union Berlin Rank: 74 L
St. Pauli Rank: 72 W
FC Bayern München Rank: 100 L
Borussia Mönchengladbach Rank: 77 D
SC Freiburg Rank: 83 L
TSG Hoffenheim Rank: 83 W
2
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
2 - 1 - 2
2

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Heidenheim
48.77%
Draw
23.43%
Away FSV Mainz 05
27.8%

Movement

Changes since opening
Heidenheim
+48.49%
Draw
+21.06%
FSV Mainz 05
-69.55%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
72.76
80.03
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Heidenheim
FSV Mainz 05
Power Score
72.76
80.03
League Position
17
10
Global Rank
143
55

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Heidenheim — Opponent-weighted form score
FSV Mainz 05 — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Heidenheim FSV Mainz 05

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Heidenheim

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

FSV Mainz 05

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Heidenheim ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy FSV Mainz 05
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
33.02
35.64
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
35.64
33.02
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Heidenheim -0.24 Efficiency Index
vs
FSV Mainz 05 +0.24 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Heidenheim
FSV Mainz 05
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Heidenheim
vs
FSV Mainz 05
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Heidenheim FSV Mainz 05
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Heidenheim FSV Mainz 05
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
Heidenheim
FSV Mainz 05
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Heidenheim
vs
FSV Mainz 05
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Heidenheim FSV Mainz 05
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Heidenheim 0.30
FSV Mainz 05 0.43
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Heidenheim FSV Mainz 05
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Heidenheim 0.06
FSV Mainz 05 0.00
Heidenheim
FSV Mainz 05
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • HDH had peak pressure around 86'.
  • M05 started the game with stronger pressure.
HDH Pressure M05 Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: HDH reached the top pressure at 86' (100.00).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 5 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Heidenheim HDH Home
5 matches
FSV Mainz 05 M05 Away
Match Record
2
Wins
2
1
Draws
1
2
Losses
2
Goals
5
Goals Scored
5
5
Goals Conceded
5
0
Goal Difference
0

Data last updated: 2026-05-18T08:55:46+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-4-1-1
Match Formation 3-5-2
Pitch
F. Feller
Germany
40 F. Feller
M. Busch
Substitution
Germany
2 M. Busch
P. Mainka
Germany
6 (C) P. Mainka
J. Föhrenbach
Germany
19 J. Föhrenbach
H. Behrens
Germany
26 H. Behrens
E. Dinkci
Substitution
Germany
8 E. Dinkci
J. Schöppner
Germany
3 J. Schöppner
N. Dorsch
Substitution
Germany
30 N. Dorsch
A.Ibrahimovic
Substitution
Germany
22 A.Ibrahimovic
M. Pieringer
Substitution
Germany
18 M. Pieringer
B. Zivzivadze
Georgia
11 B. Zivzivadze
Pitch
D. Batz
Germany
33 D. Batz
K. Potulski
Poland
48 K. Potulski
S. Posch
Substitution
Austria
4 S. Posch
D. Kohr
Germany
31 D. Kohr
P. Mwene
Austria
2 P. Mwene
N. Amiri
Substitution
Germany
10 N. Amiri
K. Sano
Japan
6 K. Sano
P. Nebel
Germany
8 P. Nebel
S. Widmer
Substitution
Switzerland
30 (C) S. Widmer
S. Becker
Substitution
Suriname
23 S. Becker
P. Tietz
Substitution
Germany
20 P. Tietz

General Information

Date & Time :
May 16, 2026, 01:30 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Bundesliga, Germany · Round 34 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Walter-Birkhold-Jugendstadion
Capacity :
15000
Attendance :
15000
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Robert Hartmann
Tobias Schultes
Marco Achmüller
Patrick Schwengers

Statistics

Possession
HDH
51%
M05
49%

Top Statistics

0 Goals 2
6 Big Chances Created 7
4 Shots 2
50 Dangerous attacks 35
53 Possession 47
6 Corners 3
12 Free kicks 8
1 Yellow Cards 1

Match Overview

2 Hit Woodwork 2
9 Goal Attempts 10
8 Goal Kicks 11
5 Substitutions 5
0 Assists 1
30 Throwins 14
68 Ball Safe 64
3 Successful Dribbles 6
10 Successful Headers 17
30 Successful Dribbles Percentage 43
10 Dribble Attempts 14

Attacking

6 Big Chances Missed 5
107 Attacks 101

Possession

12 Key Passes 10
81 Successful Passes Percentage 78
47 Successful Long Passes Percentage 56
428 Passes 389
345 Successful Passes 302
43 Long Passes 68
20 Successful Long Passes 38

Defensive

5 Saves 5
9 Interceptions 11
45 Duels Won 50
20 Tackles 19

Build-up

7 Accurate Crosses 3
29 Total Crosses 9

Discipline

3 Offsides 1
8 Fouls 12

Lineup

Referee : Robert Hartmann

Starting XI ▼

40
Frank Feller
Frank Feller Goalkeeper
7.31
2
Marnon Busch
Marnon Busch Defender
6.46
23
Omar Traoré
Omar Traoré
Defender46'
6.59
6
Patrick Mainka
Patrick Mainka (C) Defender
7.56
19
Jonas Föhrenbach
Jonas Föhrenbach Defender
7.02
26
Hennes Behrens
Hennes Behrens Defender
6.59
3
Jan Schöppner
Jan Schöppner Midfielder
6.79
8
Eren Dinkçi
Eren Dinkçi Midfielder
6.6
17
Mathias Honsak
Mathias Honsak
Attacker73'
6.7
22
Arijon Ibrahimovic
Arijon Ibrahimovic Midfielder
6.45
9
Stefan Schimmer
Stefan Schimmer
Attacker65'
6.41
30
Niklas Dorsch
Niklas Dorsch Midfielder
6.57
21
Adrian Beck
Adrian Beck
Midfielder73'
6.9
11
Budu Zivzivadze
Budu Zivzivadze Attacker
6.64
18
Marvin Pieringer
Marvin Pieringer Attacker
6.37
10
Christian Conteh
Christian Conteh
Attacker46'
6.47
Referee : Robert Hartmann

Starting XI ▼

33
Daniel Batz
Daniel Batz Goalkeeper
8.17
4
Stefan Posch
Stefan Posch Defender
6.96
21
Danny da Costa
Danny da Costa
Defender46'
6.81
31
Dominik Kohr
Dominik Kohr Defender
7.03
48
Kacper Potulski
Kacper Potulski Defender
7.7
2
Grenddy Perozo
Grenddy Perozo Midfielder
7.4
6
Kaishu Sano
Kaishu Sano Midfielder
6.99
8
Paul Nebel
Paul Nebel Midfielder
6.68
10
Nadiem Amiri
Nadiem Amiri Midfielder
8.38
7
Jae-sung Lee
Jae-sung Lee
Midfielder68'
6.61
30
Silvan Widmer
Silvan Widmer (C) Midfielder
6.91
19
Anthony Caci
Anthony Caci
Defender68'
6.41
20
Phillip Tietz
Phillip Tietz Attacker
8.07
44
Nelson Weiper
Nelson Weiper
Attacker84'
6.41
23
Sheraldo Becker
Sheraldo Becker Attacker
7.24
15
Lennard Maloney
Lennard Maloney
Midfielder77'
6.43

Events

2ND-HALF
84'
Event
Nelson Weiper → Phillip Tietz
10th Substitution
77'
Event
Lennard Maloney → Sheraldo Becker
9th Substitution
Event
Adrian Beck → Niklas Dorsch
7th Substitution
73'
Event
Mathias Honsak → Eren Dinkçi
8th Substitution
73'
Event
Eren Dinkçi
Argument / 2nd Yellowcard
70'
70'
Event
Sheraldo Becker
Time wasting / 1st Yellowcard
68'
Event
Anthony Caci → Silvan Widmer
5th Substitution
68'
Event
Jae-sung Lee → Nadiem Amiri
6th Substitution
Event
Stefan Schimmer → Arijon Ibrahimovic
4th Substitution
65'
Event
Omar Traoré → Marnon Busch
3rd Substitution
46'
Event
Christian Conteh → Marvin Pieringer
1st Substitution
46'
46'
Event
Danny da Costa → Stefan Posch
2nd Substitution
1ST-HALF
43'
Event
Nadiem Amiri
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
7'
Event
Phillip Tietz
Header / 1st Goal

Match Commentary

16
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to 1. FSV Mainz 05 after a concession by Marvin Pieringer.
16
Attempt Attempt
Kacper Potulski's right-footed shot from outside the box is blocked. The assist came from Kaishu Sano.
15
Update Update
Jan Schöppner of 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 won a free kick in defense.
14
Attempt Attempt
Arijon Ibrahimovic from 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 had a missed chance, shooting with his right foot from the center of the box, but it went close and missed. The assist came from Marvin Pieringer, who provided a header.
12
Attempt Attempt
Phillip Tietz from 1. FSV Mainz 05 hits the bar with a right-footed shot from the center of the box, assisted by Nadiem Amiri.
11
Update Update
Nadiem Amiri from 1. FSV Mainz 05 won a free kick on the left wing.
11
Update Update
Foul committed by Hennes Behrens of 1. FC Heidenheim 1846.
11
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to 1. FSV Mainz 05 after Eren Dinkçi concedes.
7
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Phillip Tietz scores for 1. FSV Mainz 05 with a header from close range into the right corner. The score is now 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 0, 1. FSV Mainz 05 1.
4
Update Update
Foul committed by Eren Dinkçi of 1. FC Heidenheim 1846.
4
Update Update
Kacper Potulski from 1. FSV Mainz 05 won a free kick in defense.

CONCLUSION

Final score detail: Heidenheim 0-2 FSV Mainz 05. Structural assessment: FSV Mainz 05 exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.

Heidenheim vs FSV Mainz 05 preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

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