Heidenheim vs FSV Mainz 05 Prediction, Preview and Stats

Germany flag 2025/2026 Bundesliga, Germany
Walter-Birkhold-Jugendstadion Tomorrow - 1:30 PM
Bundesliga
Heidenheim HDH
Versus
FSV Mainz 05 M05
KICKOFF : Tomorrow - 1:30 PM
Round 34 Regular Season

CONTEXT

Heidenheim, languishing in 18th place in the Bundesliga, face a tough challenge at home against 10th-placed FSV Mainz 05 in the Walter-Birkhold-Jugendstadion during the 2025/2026 regular season. With a power score of 72.71 compared to Mainz's 80.86, the visitors hold an 8.2-point advantage, marking them as the stronger side overall. Recent form scores are tightly matched at 18.83 for Heidenheim and 18.44 for Mainz, suggesting neither team dominates in momentum. Heidenheim will rely on home support to bridge the gap against a more potent Mainz outfit. Advanced metrics like efficiency and set pieces are unavailable or based on low-confidence proxies, limiting deeper insights into specialized areas. Transition play and squad specifics remain undisclosed, focusing attention on core power disparities and league standings. This matchup pits desperation against stability in the relegation battle.

TL;DR

  • Structural: Heidenheim rank 18th hosting 10th-placed FSV Mainz 05, with Mainz holding an 8.2-point power advantage.
  • Form: Form scores are close, with Heidenheim at 18.83 and FSV Mainz 05 at 18.44.
  • Squad: Power scores favor FSV Mainz 05 at 80.86 over Heidenheim's 72.71.
  • Efficiency: Efficiency data is unavailable for both teams.
  • Transition: Transition metrics are not provided in available data.
  • Set pieces: Set piece stats use low-confidence proxies with no xG data for either team.
  • xVariable: xG data is unavailable, reflected in low-confidence set piece proxies.
  • Market: Baseline split: Heidenheim 0% (Δ+0%) | Draw 0% (Δ+0%) | FSV Mainz 05 0% (Δ+0%).
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Jan 25 vs Team A
Feb 1 vs Team B
Feb 8 vs Team C
Heidenheim F. Schmidt
F. Schmidt
VS
FSV Mainz 05 U. Fischer
U. Fischer
0.83
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.43
1.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
FC Köln Rank: 76 D
FC Bayern München Rank: 100 D
St. Pauli Rank: 72 W
SC Freiburg Rank: 83 L
FC Union Berlin Rank: 74 W
Borussia Mönchengladbach Rank: 77 D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
FC Union Berlin Rank: 74 D
St. Pauli Rank: 72 W
FC Bayern München Rank: 100 L
Borussia Mönchengladbach Rank: 75 D
SC Freiburg Rank: 83 L
TSG Hoffenheim Rank: 85 W
2
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
2 - 1 - 2
2
No sidelined player data available.

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Heidenheim
0%
Draw
0%
Away FSV Mainz 05
0%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
72.71
80.86
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Heidenheim
FSV Mainz 05
Power Score
72.71
80.86
League Position
18
10
Global Rank
150
56

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Heidenheim — Opponent-weighted form score
FSV Mainz 05 — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Heidenheim FSV Mainz 05

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 5 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Heidenheim HDH Home
5 matches
FSV Mainz 05 M05 Away
Match Record
2
Wins
2
1
Draws
1
2
Losses
2
Goals
5
Goals Scored
5
5
Goals Conceded
5
0
Goal Difference
0

Data last updated: 2026-05-09T01:10:21+00:00

TEAM FORMATION

Official lineups and formations are usually announced 60–90 minutes before kickoff. Check back closer to the match to see the starting XIs here.

General Information

Date & Time :
May 16, 2026, 01:30 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Bundesliga, Germany · Round 34 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Walter-Birkhold-Jugendstadion
Capacity :
15000
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair

Squad

Squad ▼

41
Diant Ramaj
Diant Ramaj Goalkeeper
34
Paul Tschernuth
Paul Tschernuth Goalkeeper
40
Frank Feller
Frank Feller Goalkeeper
2
Marnon Busch
Marnon Busch Defender
19
Jonas Föhrenbach
Jonas Föhrenbach Defender
32
Leart Paqarada
Leart Paqarada Defender
6
Patrick Mainka
Patrick Mainka Defender
5
Benedikt Gimber
Benedikt Gimber Defender
4
Tim Siersleben
Tim Siersleben Defender
23
Haktab Omar Traorè
Haktab Omar Traorè Defender
25
Leonidas Stergiou
Leonidas Stergiou Defender
26
Hennes Behrens
Hennes Behrens Defender
28
Adam Kölle
Adam Kölle Defender
30
Niklas Dorsch
Niklas Dorsch Midfielder
21
Adrian Beck
Adrian Beck Midfielder
16
Julian Niehues
Julian Niehues Midfielder
3
Jan Schöppner
Jan Schöppner Midfielder
22
Arijon Ibrahimovic
Arijon Ibrahimovic Midfielder
20
Luca Kerber
Luca Kerber Midfielder
33
Nick Rothweiler
Nick Rothweiler Midfielder
31
Sirlord Conteh
Sirlord Conteh Attacker
9
Stefan Schimmer
Stefan Schimmer Attacker
17
Mathias Honsak
Mathias Honsak Attacker
11
Budu Zivzivadze
Budu Zivzivadze Attacker
10
Christian Joe Conteh
Christian Joe Conteh Attacker
18
Marvin Pieringer
Marvin Pieringer Attacker
29
Mikkel Kaufmann
Mikkel Kaufmann Attacker
8
Eren Dinkci
Eren Dinkci Attacker
38
Yannik Wagner
Yannik Wagner Attacker

Squad ▼

33
Daniel Batz
Daniel Batz Goalkeeper
27
Robin Zentner
Robin Zentner Goalkeeper
1
Lasse Finn Rieß
Lasse Finn Rieß Goalkeeper
21
Danny Vieira da Costa
Danny Vieira da Costa Defender
31
Dominik Kohr
Dominik Kohr Defender
4
Stefan Posch
Stefan Posch Defender
5
Maxim Leitsch
Maxim Leitsch Defender
19
Anthony Caci
Anthony Caci Defender
30
Silvan Widmer
Silvan Widmer Defender
25
Andreas Hanche-Olsen
Andreas Hanche-Olsen Defender
47
Maxim Bora Dal
Maxim Bora Dal Defender
18
Kasey Bos
Kasey Bos Defender
48
Kacper Potulski
Kacper Potulski Defender
10
Nadiem Amiri
Nadiem Amiri Midfielder
7
Jae-Sung Lee
Jae-Sung Lee Midfielder
15
Lennard Patrick Maloney
Lennard Patrick Maloney Midfielder
8
Paul Nebel
Paul Nebel Midfielder
28
Niklas Tauer
Niklas Tauer Midfielder
6
Kaishu Sano
Kaishu Sano Midfielder
24
Sota Kawasaki
Sota Kawasaki Midfielder
22
Nikolas Veratschnig
Nikolas Veratschnig Midfielder
42
Daniel Gleiber
Daniel Gleiber Midfielder
23
Sheraldo Becker
Sheraldo Becker Attacker
20
Phillip Tietz
Phillip Tietz Attacker
17
Benedict Hollerbach
Benedict Hollerbach Attacker
26
Silla Wamangituka
Silla Wamangituka Attacker
11
Armindo Sieb
Armindo Sieb Attacker
14
William Bøving Vick
William Bøving Vick Attacker
44
Nelson Felix Patrick Weiper
Nelson Felix Patrick Weiper Attacker
16
Stefan Bell
Stefan Bell Coach
2
Philipp Mwene
Philipp Mwene Coach

CONCLUSION

FSV Mainz 05 enter as favorites with superior power ratings and a higher league position, giving them an edge over bottom-dwelling Heidenheim. Despite similar form scores, Mainz's overall strength should shine through in this Bundesliga clash. Heidenheim's home venue offers some hope, but limited advanced data on efficiency, set pieces, and transitions underscores the reliance on basic metrics. Expect Mainz to control possession and exploit structural advantages, while Heidenheim pushes for counters. The 8.2-point power gap tilts the balance firmly toward the visitors in this regular season encounter.

Heidenheim vs FSV Mainz 05 preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

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