Borussia Mönchengladbach vs TSG Hoffenheim Prediction, Preview and Stats

Germany flag 2025/2026 Bundesliga, Germany
Stadion im Borussia-Park Sat, 16 May - 1:30 PM
Bundesliga
Borussia Mönchengladbach BMG
4 Winner 0
TSG Hoffenheim TSG
Full Time Sat, 16 May 1:30 PM
Round 34 Regular Season
Robin Hack - 90+1'
Kevin Diks - 81'
Haris Tabakovic - 23'
Hugo Bolin - 14'
Goal
|
|
Second yellow card Tim Lemperle 46'

CONTEXT

Borussia Mönchengladbach secured a 4-0 victory over TSG Hoffenheim in a match that defied several underlying metrics. The home side led 2-0 at halftime and maintained control despite recording only 1.02 expected goals compared to the visitors 1.65. Hoffenheim held 56 percent possession and entered as the stronger team yet finished with a red card that shaped the second half. Gladbach converted opportunities efficiently while the away side struggled to capitalize on their statistical edges. The result highlighted a clear separation between process indicators and actual outcomes on the day. Possession advantages and expected goal differentials did not translate into goals for the visitors.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Borussia Mönchengladbach recorded a minimal structural deviation of 4.9 percent in the final outcome.
  • Efficiency shift: The efficiency shift remained in line with the observed performance patterns throughout the fixture.
  • xG alignment: The match outcome was not consistent with the expected goals distribution of 1.02 to 1.65.
  • Market alignment: The result stayed aligned with pre-match projections for the home team victory.
  • xG expectations: Expected goals indicated a tighter contest than the actual 4-0 scoreline suggested.
  • Event impact: A key event in the second half altered the flow and limited away team responses.
  • Red card distortion: The away team red card introduced clear distortion to second half adjustments and dynamics.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

F. Willenborg

Germany 25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

E. Müller

1st Assistant

Germany

F. Heft

2nd Assistant

Germany

Sven Jablonski

4th Official

Germany

League averages

Bundesliga Based on last 100 matches

Fouls / match 19.29
Yellow cards / match 3.55
Red cards / match 0.2
Penalties / match 0.33
Borussia Mönchengladbach E. Polanski
E. Polanski
VS
TSG Hoffenheim C. Ilzer
C. Ilzer
1.13
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.83
1 i
Last 6 Opponents
FC Augsburg Rank: 78 L
Borussia Dortmund Rank: 90 W
VfL Wolfsburg Rank: 74 D
FSV Mainz 05 Rank: 80 D
RB Leipzig Rank: 86 L
Heidenheim Rank: 73 D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Werder Bremen Rank: 76 W
VfB Stuttgart Rank: 85 D
Hamburger SV Rank: 75 W
Borussia Dortmund Rank: 90 W
FC Augsburg Rank: 77 D
FSV Mainz 05 Rank: 80 L
12
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
12 - 12 - 11
11

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Borussia Mönchengladbach
95.12%
Draw
3.7%
Away TSG Hoffenheim
1.19%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
77.48
83.28
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Borussia Mönchengladbach
TSG Hoffenheim
Power Score
77.48
83.28
League Position
12
5
Global Rank
81
41

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Borussia Mönchengladbach — Opponent-weighted form score
TSG Hoffenheim — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Borussia Mönchengladbach TSG Hoffenheim

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Borussia Mönchengladbach

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

TSG Hoffenheim

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Borussia Mönchengladbach ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy TSG Hoffenheim
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
25.68
24.20
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
24.20
25.68
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Borussia Mönchengladbach +0.13 Efficiency Index
vs
TSG Hoffenheim -0.13 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Borussia Mönchengladbach
TSG Hoffenheim
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Borussia Mönchengladbach
vs
TSG Hoffenheim
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Borussia Mönchengladbach TSG Hoffenheim
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Borussia Mönchengladbach TSG Hoffenheim
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
Borussia Mönchengladbach
TSG Hoffenheim
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Borussia Mönchengladbach
vs
TSG Hoffenheim
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Borussia Mönchengladbach TSG Hoffenheim
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Borussia Mönchengladbach 0.20
TSG Hoffenheim 0.22
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Borussia Mönchengladbach TSG Hoffenheim
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Borussia Mönchengladbach 0.00
TSG Hoffenheim 0.09
Borussia Mönchengladbach
TSG Hoffenheim
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • BMG had peak pressure around 27'.
  • TSG started the game with stronger pressure.
BMG Pressure TSG Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: BMG reached the top pressure at 27' (100.00).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 35 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Borussia Mönchengladbach BMG Home
35 matches
TSG Hoffenheim TSG Away
Match Record
12
Wins
11
12
Draws
12
11
Losses
12
Goals
72
Goals Scored
62
62
Goals Conceded
72
+10
Goal Difference
-10

Data last updated: 2026-05-18T08:55:51+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
M. Nicolas
Germany
33 M. Nicolas
J. Scally
United States
29 J. Scally
N. Elvedi
Switzerland
30 (C) N. Elvedi
K. Diks
Netherlands
4 K. Diks
L. Ullrich
Germany
26 L. Ullrich
P. Sander
Substitution
Germany
16 P. Sander
Y. Engelhardt
Germany
6 Y. Engelhardt
H. Bolin
Substitution
Sweden
38 H. Bolin
K. Stöger
Substitution
Austria
7 K. Stöger
W. Mohya
Substitution
Germany
36 W. Mohya
H. Tabakovic
Substitution
Switzerland
15 H. Tabakovic
Pitch
O. Baumann
Germany
1 (C) O. Baumann
B. Fernandes da Silva Junior
Substitution
Brazil
13 B. Fernandes da Silva Junior
A. Hajdari
Substitution
Switzerland
21 A. Hajdari
O. Kabak
Türkiye
5 O. Kabak
V. Coufal
Czech Republic
34 V. Coufal
W. Burger
Netherlands
18 W. Burger
L. Avdullahu
Switzerland
7 L. Avdullahu
B. Touré
Substitution
Ivory Coast
29 B. Touré
F. Asllani
Substitution
Germany
11 F. Asllani
A. Kramarić
Substitution
Croatia
27 A. Kramarić
T. Lemperle
Germany
19 T. Lemperle

General Information

Date & Time :
May 16, 2026, 01:30 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Bundesliga, Germany · Round 34 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Stadion im Borussia-Park
Capacity :
54057
Attendance :
53033
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Frank Willenborg
Eric Müller
Florian Heft
Sven Jablonski

Statistics

Possession
BMG
45%
TSG
55%

Top Statistics

4 Goals 0
2 Big Chances Created 2
3 Shots 4
46 Dangerous attacks 51
44 Possession 56
2 Corners 9
15 Free kicks 11
4 Yellow Cards 6
0 Red Cards 1

Match Overview

7 Goal Attempts 6
3 Assists 0
4 Goal Kicks 3
5 Substitutions 5
1 Injuries 0
61 Ball Safe 62
7 Successful Headers 11
45 Successful Dribbles Percentage 56
11 Dribble Attempts 18
5 Successful Dribbles 10
15 Throwins 20

Attacking

0 Big Chances Missed 2
66 Attacks 109

Possession

43 Successful Long Passes Percentage 49
7 Key Passes 8
83 Successful Passes Percentage 85
47 Long Passes 43
20 Successful Long Passes 21
327 Successful Passes 414
392 Passes 485

Defensive

7 Interceptions 6
22 Tackles 16
49 Duels Won 48
3 Saves 2

Build-up

2 Accurate Crosses 7
9 Total Crosses 19

Discipline

2 Offsides 1
11 Fouls 15

Lineup

Referee : Frank Willenborg

Starting XI ▼

33
Moritz Nicolas
Moritz Nicolas Goalkeeper
7.19
4
Kevin Diks
Kevin Diks Defender
7.74
26
Lukas Ullrich
Lukas Ullrich Defender
6.64
29
Joe Scally
Joe Scally Defender
6.91
30
Nico Elvedi
Nico Elvedi (C) Defender
8.59
6
Yannik Engelhardt
Yannik Engelhardt Midfielder
7.2
7
Kevin Stöger
Kevin Stöger Midfielder
6.61
13
Giovanni Reyna
Giovanni Reyna
Midfielder67'
6.44
16
Philipp Sander
Philipp Sander Midfielder
6.79
11
Tim Kleindienst
Tim Kleindienst
Attacker86'
36
Wael Mohya
Wael Mohya Midfielder
6.9
9
Franck Honorat
Franck Honorat
Midfielder67'
6.6
38
Hugo Bolin
Hugo Bolin Midfielder
7.37
25
Robin Hack
Robin Hack
Midfielder67'
7.28
15
Haris Tabakovic
Haris Tabakovic Attacker
7.27
18
Shuto Machino
Shuto Machino
Attacker74'
6.53
Referee : Frank Willenborg

Starting XI ▼

1
Oliver Baumann
Oliver Baumann (C) Goalkeeper
6.31
5
Ozan Kabak
Ozan Kabak Defender
6.15
13
Bernardo
Bernardo Defender
7.08
25
Kevin Akpoguma
Kevin Akpoguma
Defender76'
6.09
21
Albian Hajdari
Albian Hajdari Defender
6.17
6
Grischa Prömel
Grischa Prömel
Midfielder65'
6.48
34
Vladimír Coufal
Vladimír Coufal Defender
6.63
7
Leon Avdullahu
Leon Avdullahu Midfielder
5.46
11
Fisnik Asllani
Fisnik Asllani Midfielder
6.9
20
Cole Campbell
Cole Campbell
Attacker65'
6.68
18
Wouter Burger
Wouter Burger Midfielder
6.69
27
Andrej Kramaric
Andrej Kramaric Midfielder
6.26
22
Alexander Prass
Alexander Prass
Defender55'
6.08
29
Bazoumana Touré
Bazoumana Touré Midfielder
6.65
23
Adam Hlozek
Adam Hlozek
Attacker76'
6.09
19
Tim Lemperle
Tim Lemperle Attacker
5.6

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Robin Hack
Right foot shot / 4th Goal
90+1'
Event
Shuto Machino
Foul / 9th Yellowcard
89'
Event
Tim Kleindienst → Philipp Sander
10th Substitution
86'
Event
Kevin Diks
Right foot shot / 3rd Goal
81'
79'
Event
Ozan Kabak
Foul / 8th Yellowcard
76'
Event
Adam Hlozek → Bazoumana Touré
9th Substitution
76'
Event
Kevin Akpoguma → Bernardo
8th Substitution
Event
Shuto Machino → Haris Tabakovic
7th Substitution
74'
69'
Event
Alexander Prass
Foul / 7th Yellowcard
Event
Franck Honorat → Wael Mohya
5th Substitution
67'
Event
Robin Hack → Hugo Bolin
4th Substitution
67'
Event
Giovanni Reyna → Kevin Stöger
6th Substitution
67'
Event
Wael Mohya
Time wasting / 6th Yellowcard
66'
Event
Haris Tabakovic
Goal disallowed
65'
65'
Event
Cole Campbell → Fisnik Asllani
2nd Substitution
65'
Event
Grischa Prömel → Albian Hajdari
3rd Substitution
60'
Event
Leon Avdullahu
Foul / 5th Yellowcard
55'
Event
Alexander Prass → Andrej Kramaric
1st Substitution
46'
Event
Tim Lemperle
Foul / 1st Yellow/red Card
1ST-HALF
Event
Philipp Sander
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
43'
Event
Haris Tabakovic
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
40'
35'
Event
Tim Lemperle
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
32'
Event
Albian Hajdari
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
Event
Haris Tabakovic
Left foot shot / 2nd Goal
23'
Event
Hugo Bolin
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
14'

Match Commentary

17
Update Update
Haris Tabakovic is flagged for offside for Borussia Mönchengladbach.
14
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Borussia Mönchengladbach leads TSG Hoffenheim 1-0. Hugo Bolin scores with a right-footed shot from the center of the box into the left corner, assisted by Wael Mohya.
13
Attempt Attempt
Hugo Bolin's right-footed shot from the right side of the box is blocked. The assist was made by Yannik Engelhardt.
8
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Borussia Mönchengladbach after a concession by Vladimír Coufal.
7
Attempt Attempt
New attacking attempt. Andrej Kramaric of TSG Hoffenheim takes a right-footed shot from the center of the box, but it's saved by goalkeeper Moritz Nicolas of Borussia Mönchengladbach, with an assist from Fisnik Asllani.
6
Attempt Attempt
Tim Lemperle's right-footed shot from outside the box is blocked. Bazoumana Touré provided the assist.
5
Update Update
Foul committed by Kevin Stöger of Borussia Mönchengladbach.
5
Update Update
Wouter Burger of TSG Hoffenheim won a free kick in defense.
4
Update Update
Foul committed by Albian Hajdari of TSG Hoffenheim.
4
Update Update
Wael Mohya of Borussia Mönchengladbach won a free kick in defense.
4
Update Update
Kevin Stöger of Borussia Mönchengladbach won a free kick in defense.
4
Update Update
Wouter Burger from TSG Hoffenheim committed a foul.
1
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to TSG Hoffenheim after a concession by Hugo Bolin.

CONCLUSION

The 4-0 result for Borussia Mönchengladbach against TSG Hoffenheim demonstrated how red card effects and conversion rates can override expected goals and possession data. Hoffenheim controlled more of the ball and generated superior underlying numbers yet could not overcome the numerical disadvantage after the dismissal. Gladbach maintained a two goal halftime cushion and added further goals without needing to dominate statistically. This outcome underscores the importance of in game events in shaping final margins beyond pre match indicators. The visitors higher expected goals failed to produce corresponding results once the red card occurred. Analytical review shows that efficiency in front of goal proved decisive for the winners despite their lower overall process metrics.

Borussia Mönchengladbach vs TSG Hoffenheim preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

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Alf Indseth

Alf Indseth writes football-focused analysis that looks beyond match results to explore form, value, and market context.