St. Pauli vs VfL Wolfsburg Prediction, Preview and Stats

Germany flag 2025/2026 Bundesliga, Germany
Millerntor-Stadion Sat, 16 May - 1:30 PM
Bundesliga
St. Pauli PAU
1 Winner 3
VfL Wolfsburg WOB
Full Time Sat, 16 May 1:30 PM
Round 34 Regular Season
Abdoulie Ceesay - 57'
Goal
|
Goal
Dzenan Pejcinovic - 80'
Nikola Vasilj - 64' (Own Goal)
Konstantinos Koulierakis - 37'

CONTEXT

In the recent encounter between St. Pauli and VfL Wolfsburg the away side secured a decisive victory with a final score of 1-3. The halftime score was 0-1 reflecting early dominance by VfL Wolfsburg. Throughout the match St. Pauli managed 44 percent possession while VfL Wolfsburg controlled 56 percent. Expected goals figures showed St. Pauli at 1.62 and VfL Wolfsburg at 3.46 creating a notable differential of minus 1.84. The result proved consistent with these xG values as the stronger team VfL Wolfsburg claimed the win. No red cards were shown to either side maintaining a full complement of players on the pitch. A significant deviation of 63.4 percent was observed favoring VfL Wolfsburg. The efficiency remained in line with projections without major shifts. This game underscored the importance of converting chances effectively in line with statistical expectations.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Final score: St. Pauli 1-3 VfL Wolfsburg. VfL Wolfsburg showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: The efficiency shift remained in line with pre-match projections throughout the contest.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome aligned closely with the expected goals metrics of 1.62 to 3.46.
  • Market alignment: The match result did not align with initial market forecasts.
  • xG expectations: VfL Wolfsburg exceeded xG expectations by securing three goals against St. Pauli's one.
  • Event impact: Key events contributed to VfL Wolfsburg maintaining their lead after the early advantage.
  • Red card distortion: Absence of red cards ensured no distortion from player dismissals in the match.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

D. Siebert

Germany 25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

J. Seidel

1st Assistant

Germany

B. Kempkes

2nd Assistant

Germany

W. Haslberger

4th Official

Germany

League averages

Bundesliga Based on last 100 matches

Fouls / match 19.29
Yellow cards / match 3.55
Red cards / match 0.2
Penalties / match 0.33
St. Pauli A. Blessin
A. Blessin
VS
VfL Wolfsburg D. Hecking
D. Hecking
0.83
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
0.78
0.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
RB Leipzig Rank: 87 L
FSV Mainz 05 Rank: 80 L
Heidenheim Rank: 70 L
FC Köln Rank: 74 D
FC Bayern München Rank: 100 L
FC Union Berlin Rank: 76 D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
FC Bayern München Rank: 100 L
SC Freiburg Rank: 82 D
Borussia Mönchengladbach Rank: 75 D
FC Union Berlin Rank: 76 W
Eintracht Frankfurt Rank: 80 L
Bayer 04 Leverkusen Rank: 89 L
0
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 4 - 1
1

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home St. Pauli
37.61%
Draw
25.81%
Away VfL Wolfsburg
36.58%

Movement

Changes since opening
St. Pauli
+37.39%
Draw
+23.89%
VfL Wolfsburg
-61.28%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
70.36
75.3
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
St. Pauli
VfL Wolfsburg
Power Score
70.36
75.3
League Position
18
16
Global Rank
192
105

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
St. Pauli — Opponent-weighted form score
VfL Wolfsburg — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) St. Pauli VfL Wolfsburg

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

St. Pauli

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

VfL Wolfsburg

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

St. Pauli ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy VfL Wolfsburg
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
29.55
37.32
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
37.32
29.55
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
St. Pauli -0.70 Efficiency Index
vs
VfL Wolfsburg +0.70 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
St. Pauli
VfL Wolfsburg
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

St. Pauli
vs
VfL Wolfsburg
Created Set-piece attacking threat
St. Pauli VfL Wolfsburg
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
St. Pauli VfL Wolfsburg
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
St. Pauli
VfL Wolfsburg
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
St. Pauli
vs
VfL Wolfsburg
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
St. Pauli VfL Wolfsburg
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
St. Pauli 0.28
VfL Wolfsburg 0.50
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
St. Pauli VfL Wolfsburg
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
St. Pauli 0.08
VfL Wolfsburg 0.03
St. Pauli
VfL Wolfsburg
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • WOB had peak pressure around 83'.
  • WOB started the game with stronger pressure.
PAU Pressure WOB Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: WOB reached the top pressure at 83' (88.43).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 5 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

St. Pauli PAU Home
5 matches
VfL Wolfsburg WOB Away
Match Record
0
Wins
1
4
Draws
4
1
Losses
0
Goals
5
Goals Scored
6
6
Goals Conceded
5
-1
Goal Difference
+1

Data last updated: 2026-05-18T08:56:07+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-4-1-2
Match Formation 3-1-4-2
Pitch
N. Vasilj
Bosnia and Herzegovina
22 N. Vasilj
A. Dźwigała
Substitution
Poland
25 A. Dźwigała
H. Wahl
Germany
5 H. Wahl
T. Ando
Japan
15 T. Ando
A. Pyrka
Poland
11 A. Pyrka
J. Irvine
Substitution
Australia
7 (C) J. Irvine
J. Fujita
Japan
16 J. Fujita
L. Oppie
Germany
23 L. Oppie
C. Metcalfe
Substitution
Australia
24 C. Metcalfe
M. Kaars
Netherlands
19 M. Kaars
A. Hountondji
Substitution
France
27 A. Hountondji
Pitch
K. Grabara
Poland
1 K. Grabara
K. Koulierakis
Greece
4 K. Koulierakis
D. Vavro
Slovakia
3 D. Vavro
J. Belocian
France
6 J. Belocian
V. de Souza Costa
Brazil
5 V. de Souza Costa
J. Mæhle
Denmark
21 J. Mæhle
C. Dannemann Eriksen
Substitution
Denmark
24 (C) C. Dannemann Eriksen
M. Svanberg
Substitution
Sweden
32 M. Svanberg
S. Kumbedi Nseke
France
26 S. Kumbedi Nseke
D. Pejcinovic
Substitution
Germany
17 D. Pejcinovic
A. Daghim
Substitution
Denmark
11 A. Daghim

General Information

Date & Time :
May 16, 2026, 01:30 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Bundesliga, Germany · Round 34 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Millerntor-Stadion
Capacity :
29546
Attendance :
29546
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Daniel Siebert
Jan Seidel
Benedikt Kempkes
Wolfgang Haslberger

Statistics

Possession
PAU
45%
WOB
55%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 3
3 Big Chances Created 7
5 Shots 4
40 Dangerous attacks 38
44 Possession 56
8 Corners 9
9 Free kicks 5
2 Yellow Cards 3

Match Overview

3 Goal Attempts 11
4 Substitutions 4
1 Assists 1
1 Hit Woodwork 3
0 Penalties 1
75 Ball Safe 76
12 Dribble Attempts 14
6 Goal Kicks 8
21 Successful Headers 27
67 Successful Dribbles Percentage 50
21 Throwins 30
8 Successful Dribbles 7

Attacking

2 Big Chances Missed 5
95 Attacks 110

Possession

6 Key Passes 13
21 Successful Long Passes 26
38 Successful Long Passes Percentage 37
71 Successful Passes Percentage 79
56 Long Passes 71
343 Passes 444
245 Successful Passes 349

Defensive

8 Saves 1
16 Tackles 16
13 Interceptions 11
51 Duels Won 55

Build-up

5 Accurate Crosses 4
22 Total Crosses 15

Discipline

2 Offsides 1
6 Fouls 9

Lineup

Referee : Daniel Siebert

Starting XI ▼

22
Nikola Vasilj
Nikola Vasilj Goalkeeper
7.56
5
Hauke Wahl
Hauke Wahl Defender
6.18
15
T. Ando
T. Ando Defender
6.88
25
Adam Dzwigala
Adam Dzwigala Defender
6.49
26
Ricky-Jade Jones
Ricky-Jade Jones
Attacker77'
6.63
7
Jackson Irvine
Jackson Irvine (C) Midfielder
6.57
18
Taichi Hara
Taichi Hara
Attacker90+1'
11
Arkadiusz Pyrka
Arkadiusz Pyrka Midfielder
6.62
16
Joel Chima Fujita
Joel Chima Fujita Midfielder
6.81
23
Louis Oppie
Louis Oppie Midfielder
6.32
19
Martijn Kaars
Martijn Kaars Attacker
6.56
24
Connor Metcalfe
Connor Metcalfe Attacker
7.53
20
Mathias Rasmussen
Mathias Rasmussen
Midfielder90+1'
27
Andréas Hountondji
Andréas Hountondji Attacker
6.05
9
Abdoulie Ceesay
Abdoulie Ceesay
Attacker46'
7.39
Referee : Daniel Siebert

Starting XI ▼

1
Kamil Grabara
Kamil Grabara Goalkeeper
6.67
3
Denis Vavro
Denis Vavro Defender
6.75
4
Konstantinos Koulierakis
Konstantinos Koulierakis Defender
7.61
6
Jeanuël Belocian
Jeanuël Belocian Defender
7.11
5
Vinicius de Souza Costa
Vinicius de Souza Costa Midfielder
7
21
Joakim Maehle
Joakim Maehle Midfielder
6.48
24
Christian Eriksen
Christian Eriksen (C) Midfielder
7.26
10
Lovro Majer
Lovro Majer
Midfielder90+4'
26
Saël Kumbedi
Saël Kumbedi Midfielder
6.71
32
Mattias Svanberg
Mattias Svanberg Midfielder
6.74
31
Yannick Gerhardt
Yannick Gerhardt
Midfielder67'
7.03
11
Adam Daghim
Adam Daghim Attacker
6.21
7
Kento Shiogai
Kento Shiogai
Attacker88'
6.47
17
Dzenan Pejcinovic
Dzenan Pejcinovic Attacker
7.82
9
Mohamed Amoura
Mohamed Amoura
Attacker90+4'

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Joel Chima Fujita
Foul / 5th Yellowcard
90+5'
90+4'
Event
Lovro Majer → Christian Eriksen
8th Substitution
90+4'
Event
Kento Shiogai
Time wasting / 4th Yellowcard
90+4'
Event
Mohamed Amoura → Dzenan Pejcinovic
7th Substitution
Event
Taichi Hara → Jackson Irvine
5th Substitution
90+1'
Event
Mathias Rasmussen → Connor Metcalfe
6th Substitution
90+1'
Event
Abdoulie Ceesay
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
88'
88'
Event
Kento Shiogai → Adam Daghim
4th Substitution
80'
Event
Dzenan Pejcinovic
Right foot shot / 3rd Goal
Event
Ricky-Jade Jones → Adam Dzwigala
3rd Substitution
77'
77'
Event
Christian Eriksen
Woodwork
75'
Event
Yannick Gerhardt
Penalty awarded
67'
Event
Yannick Gerhardt → Mattias Svanberg
2nd Substitution
66'
Event
Jeanuël Belocian
Goal awarded
64'
Event
Nikola Vasilj
Own Goal / 1st Own Goal
Event
Abdoulie Ceesay
Header / 2nd Goal
57'
Event
Abdoulie Ceesay → Andréas Hountondji
1st Substitution
46'
1ST-HALF
37'
Event
Konstantinos Koulierakis
Header / 1st Goal
33'
Event
Adam Daghim
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
18'
Event
Vinicius de Souza Costa
Foul / 1st Yellowcard

Match Commentary

9
Corner Corner
FC St. Pauli Hamburg wins a corner after Denis Vavro concedes.
7
Attempt Attempt
Mattias Svanberg's right-footed shot from the center of the box is blocked.
4
Update Update
Handball by Adam Daghim of VfL Wolfsburg.

CONCLUSION

Final score detail: St. Pauli 1-3 VfL Wolfsburg. Structural assessment: VfL Wolfsburg exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.

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Daniels Zorge covers football fixtures with a focus on tactical matchups, playing styles, and key details that shape each game.