Werder Bremen vs Borussia Dortmund Prediction, Preview and Stats

Germany flag 2025/2026 Bundesliga, Germany
Wohninvest Weserstadion Sat, 16 May - 1:30 PM
Bundesliga
Werder Bremen SVW
0 Winner 2
Borussia Dortmund BVB
Full Time Sat, 16 May 1:30 PM
Round 34 Regular Season
|
Goal
Yan Couto - 90+5'
Serhou Guirassy - 59'

CONTEXT

In the Bundesliga match between Werder Bremen and Borussia Dortmund, the game began with both teams showing caution in the opening stages. The first half ended with a score of 0-0, leaving everything to play for in the second period. Werder Bremen controlled 51 percent of the possession but created limited scoring opportunities, as reflected in their low expected goals figure of 0.7. Borussia Dortmund, despite trailing slightly in possession with 49 percent, generated significantly more dangerous chances totaling 2.66 in expected goals. This disparity allowed the visitors to take control after the break and score twice to claim a 0-2 victory. The stronger team lived up to their billing by securing the win in a manner that aligned closely with the underlying performance metrics. No players were sent off during the contest, ensuring a full-strength battle until the final whistle. The result underscored the importance of clinical finishing and efficient chance conversion in modern football.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Final score: Werder Bremen 0-2 Borussia Dortmund. Borussia Dortmund showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: The efficiency shift was in line with expectations for both teams.
  • xG alignment: The final result was consistent with the xG values of 0.7 for Werder Bremen and 2.66 for Borussia Dortmund.
  • Market alignment: The outcome proved aligned with market expectations.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations highlighted Dortmund's superiority with a differential of -1.96.
  • Event impact: Key events in the second half led to Dortmund's two goals after a scoreless first half.
  • Red card distortion: With no red cards issued, there was no distortion from disciplinary actions.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

B. Dankert

Germany 25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

R. Rohde

1st Assistant

Germany

S. Lupp

2nd Assistant

Germany

J. Wienefeld

4th Official

Germany

League averages

Bundesliga Based on last 100 matches

Fouls / match 19.29
Yellow cards / match 3.55
Red cards / match 0.2
Penalties / match 0.33
Werder Bremen D. Thioune
D. Thioune
VS
Borussia Dortmund N. Kovač
N. Kovač
0.74
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
2.13
0.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
TSG Hoffenheim Rank: 85 L
FC Augsburg Rank: 77 L
VfB Stuttgart Rank: 85 D
Hamburger SV Rank: 77 W
FC Köln Rank: 74 L
RB Leipzig Rank: 86 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Eintracht Frankfurt Rank: 80 W
Borussia Mönchengladbach Rank: 76 L
SC Freiburg Rank: 83 W
TSG Hoffenheim Rank: 83 L
Bayer 04 Leverkusen Rank: 89 L
VfB Stuttgart Rank: 86 W
8
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
8 - 7 - 24
24

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Werder Bremen
29.16%
Draw
23.81%
Away Borussia Dortmund
47.02%

Movement

Changes since opening
Werder Bremen
+28.97%
Draw
+18.16%
Borussia Dortmund
-47.14%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
74.83
89.9
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Werder Bremen
Borussia Dortmund
Power Score
74.83
89.9
League Position
15
2
Global Rank
114
12

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Werder Bremen — Opponent-weighted form score
Borussia Dortmund — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Werder Bremen Borussia Dortmund

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Werder Bremen

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Borussia Dortmund

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Werder Bremen ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Borussia Dortmund
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
22.45
40.00
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
40.00
22.45
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Werder Bremen -1.58 Efficiency Index
vs
Borussia Dortmund +1.58 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Werder Bremen
Borussia Dortmund
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Werder Bremen
vs
Borussia Dortmund
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Werder Bremen Borussia Dortmund
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Werder Bremen Borussia Dortmund
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
Werder Bremen
Borussia Dortmund
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Werder Bremen
vs
Borussia Dortmund
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Werder Bremen Borussia Dortmund
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Werder Bremen 0.18
Borussia Dortmund 0.33
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Werder Bremen Borussia Dortmund
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Werder Bremen 0.04
Borussia Dortmund 0.00
Werder Bremen
Borussia Dortmund
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • BVB had peak pressure around 10'.
  • BVB started the game with stronger pressure.
SVW Pressure BVB Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: BVB reached the top pressure at 10' (80.21).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 39 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Werder Bremen SVW Home
39 matches
Borussia Dortmund BVB Away
Match Record
8
Wins
24
7
Draws
7
24
Losses
8
Goals
45
Goals Scored
77
77
Goals Conceded
45
-32
Goal Difference
+32

Data last updated: 2026-05-18T08:56:11+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-1-4-1
Match Formation 3-4-2-1
Pitch
M. Backhaus
Germany
30 M. Backhaus
I. Schmidt
Substitution
Switzerland
23 I. Schmidt
A. Pieper
Substitution
Germany
5 A. Pieper
A. Coulibaly
Germany
31 A. Coulibaly
O. Deman
Belgium
2 O. Deman
S. Lynen
Belgium
14 S. Lynen
J. Njinmah
Germany
11 J. Njinmah
J. Stage
Denmark
6 (C) J. Stage
C. Puertas
Substitution
Spain
18 C. Puertas
R. Schmid
Substitution
Austria
20 R. Schmid
S. Musah
Substitution
Germany
29 S. Musah
Pitch
G. Kobel
Switzerland
1 G. Kobel
N. Schlotterbeck
Germany
4 (C) N. Schlotterbeck
W. Anton
Germany
3 W. Anton
L. Reggiani
Italy
49 L. Reggiani
D. Svensson
Sweden
24 D. Svensson
J. Bellingham
Substitution
England
7 J. Bellingham
F. Nmecha
Germany
8 F. Nmecha
J. Ryerson
Substitution
Norway
26 J. Ryerson
S. Inacio
Substitution
Italy
40 S. Inacio
M. Beier
Substitution
Germany
14 M. Beier
S. Guirassy
Substitution
Guinea
9 S. Guirassy

General Information

Date & Time :
May 16, 2026, 01:30 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Bundesliga, Germany · Round 34 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Wohninvest Weserstadion
Capacity :
42100
Attendance :
41800
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Bastian Dankert
René Rohde
Stefan Lupp
Jarno Wienefeld

Statistics

Possession
SVW
50%
BVB
50%

Top Statistics

0 Goals 2
0 Big Chances Created 6
3 Shots 3
49 Dangerous attacks 52
51 Possession 49
4 Corners 5
5 Free kicks 8

Match Overview

0 Assists 2
0 Injuries 1
5 Goal Attempts 13
6 Successful Headers 12
8 Successful Dribbles 7
11 Dribble Attempts 12
5 Substitutions 5
0 Hit Woodwork 1
24 Throwins 22
73 Successful Dribbles Percentage 58
52 Ball Safe 56
5 Goal Kicks 8

Attacking

0 Big Chances Missed 4
77 Attacks 121

Possession

49 Successful Long Passes Percentage 51
27 Successful Long Passes 19
55 Long Passes 37
515 Passes 485
85 Successful Passes Percentage 85
7 Key Passes 14
438 Successful Passes 413

Defensive

20 Tackles 11
39 Duels Won 38
7 Saves 3
8 Interceptions 7

Build-up

5 Accurate Crosses 9
17 Total Crosses 22

Discipline

4 Offsides 0
8 Fouls 5

Lineup

Referee : Bastian Dankert

Starting XI ▼

30
Mio Backhaus
Mio Backhaus Goalkeeper
8.2
2
Olivier Deman
Olivier Deman Defender
7.02
5
Amos Pieper
Amos Pieper Defender
6.67
32
Marco Friedl
Marco Friedl
Defender46'
6.46
23
Isaac Schmidt
Isaac Schmidt Defender
7.04
17
Marco Grüll
Marco Grüll
Attacker53'
6.78
31
Karim Coulibaly
Karim Coulibaly Defender
6.42
6
Jens Stage
Jens Stage (C) Midfielder
6.85
11
Justin Njinmah
Justin Njinmah Midfielder
6.41
14
Senne Lynen
Senne Lynen Midfielder
6.46
18
Cameron Puertas
Cameron Puertas Midfielder
6.29
24
Patrice Covic
Patrice Covic
Midfielder70'
6.8
20
Romano Schmid
Romano Schmid Midfielder
6.78
10
Leonardo Bittencourt
Leonardo Bittencourt
Midfielder90+3'
29
Salim Musah
Salim Musah Attacker
6.95
7
Samuel Mbangula
Samuel Mbangula
Attacker70'
6.76
Referee : Bastian Dankert

Starting XI ▼

1
Gregor Kobel
Gregor Kobel Goalkeeper
7.36
3
Waldemar Anton
Waldemar Anton Defender
7.26
4
Nico Schlotterbeck
Nico Schlotterbeck (C) Defender
7.35
49
Luca Reggiani
Luca Reggiani Defender
6.71
7
Jobe Bellingham
Jobe Bellingham Midfielder
7.16
27
Karim Adeyemi
Karim Adeyemi
Attacker83'
7.06
8
Felix Nmecha
Felix Nmecha Midfielder
6.89
24
Daniel Svensson
Daniel Svensson Midfielder
7.37
26
Julian Ryerson
Julian Ryerson Midfielder
7.21
2
Yan Couto
Yan Couto
Defender88'
7.06
9
Serhou Guirassy
Serhou Guirassy Attacker
6.52
21
Fábio Silva
Fábio Silva
Attacker83'
6.69
14
Maximilian Beier
Maximilian Beier Attacker
6.51
10
Julian Brandt
Julian Brandt
Midfielder69'
6.67
40
Samuele Inácio
Samuele Inácio Attacker
7.58
17
Carney Chukwuemeka
Carney Chukwuemeka
Midfielder69'
6.42

Events

2ND-HALF
90+5'
Event
Yan Couto
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
Event
Leonardo Bittencourt → Romano Schmid
10th Substitution
90+3'
88'
Event
Yan Couto → Julian Ryerson
9th Substitution
Event
Var
83'
83'
Event
Karim Adeyemi → Jobe Bellingham
7th Substitution
83'
Event
Fábio Silva → Serhou Guirassy
8th Substitution
Event
Patrice Covic → Cameron Puertas
5th Substitution
70'
Event
Samuel Mbangula → Salim Musah
6th Substitution
70'
69'
Event
Julian Brandt → Maximilian Beier
3rd Substitution
69'
Event
Carney Chukwuemeka → Samuele Inácio
4th Substitution
59'
Event
Serhou Guirassy
Header / 1st Goal
Event
Marco Grüll → Isaac Schmidt
2nd Substitution
53'
Event
Marco Friedl → Amos Pieper
1st Substitution
46'

Match Commentary

15
Attempt Attempt
Jens Stage from SV Werder Bremen misses a chance with a right-footed shot from outside the box.
12
Update Update
Fouled by Olivier Deman of SV Werder Bremen.
12
Update Update
Maximilian Beier from Borussia Dortmund won a free kick in defense.
7
Update Update
Serhou Guirassy from Borussia Dortmund attempts an attack, shooting with his right foot from the center of the box, but Mio Backhaus from SV Werder Bremen saves it in the top center of the goal.
7
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Borussia Dortmund after Mio Backhaus concedes.
6
Corner Corner
New attacking attempt. Serhou Guirassy of Borussia Dortmund takes a left-footed shot from the left side of the box, but it's saved in the right corner by Mio Backhaus of SV Werder Bremen. The assist comes from Daniel Svensson.
6
Attempt Attempt
Jobe Bellingham from Borussia Dortmund misses a chance with a right-footed shot from outside the box that goes high and wide to the left.
6
Corner Corner
New attacking attempt. Samuele Inácio from Borussia Dortmund takes a right-footed shot from the center of the box, but Mio Backhaus from SV Werder Bremen saves it in the right corner.
4
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Borussia Dortmund after Karim Coulibaly concedes.
4
Attempt Attempt
Serhou Guirassy's right-footed shot from the left side of the box is blocked. The assist came from Samuele Inácio.

CONCLUSION

Borussia Dortmund's triumph over Werder Bremen highlighted their ability to dominate proceedings despite not having the majority of possession. With the halftime score remaining level at 0-0, the away side adjusted effectively in the second half to find the net on two occasions. Their expected goals superiority was evident throughout, pointing to a deserved outcome that matched the pre-game assessments. Werder Bremen will need to reflect on their inability to create meaningful threats in front of goal. The absence of any red cards meant the match flowed without major interruptions from disciplinary measures. This victory boosts Dortmund's standing while serving as a learning point for the home team moving forward in the season. Overall, the performance metrics painted a clear picture of the difference in quality on display.

Werder Bremen vs Borussia Dortmund preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

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