Molde vs Kristiansund Prediction, Preview and Stats

Norway flag 2026 Eliteserien, Norway
Aker Stadion Sat, 16 May - 2:00 PM
Eliteserien
Molde Molde
1 Winner 0
Kristiansund Kristiansund
Full Time Sat, 16 May 2:00 PM
Round 9 Regular Season
Vebjørn Hoff - 42'
Goal
|

CONTEXT

Molde hosted Kristiansund and claimed a narrow 1-0 win with the halftime score standing at 1-0. Molde controlled 63 percent of possession yet Kristiansund generated a higher xG total of 1.5 against the home side's 1.37. The xG differential of minus 0.13 highlighted that the visitors created the better quality chances overall. No red cards were issued to either team and the match remained eleven versus eleven throughout. Molde entered as the stronger side and ultimately secured the three points despite the underlying numbers favoring Kristiansund. The single goal proved sufficient for victory in a low-scoring encounter that deviated notably from pre-match projections.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Molde recorded a significant 33.2 percent deviation from pre-match projections.
  • Efficiency shift: The efficiency shift remained in line with observed performance metrics.
  • xG alignment: The outcome was not consistent with xG as the away side posted higher expected goals.
  • Market alignment: The result aligned with market expectations for the stronger team.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations suggested Kristiansund could have taken more from the match.
  • Event impact: The first-half goal delivered the decisive impact in the 1-0 final score.
  • Red card distortion: Absence of red cards produced no distortion to team structures or dynamics.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

S. Kringstad

Norway 25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

E. Myrheim

4th Official

Norway

M. Jensen

1st Assistant

Norway

L. Nymoen

2nd Assistant

Norway

League averages

Eliteserien Based on last 100 matches

Fouls / match 19.63
Yellow cards / match 3.06
Red cards / match 0.11
Penalties / match 0.23
Molde M. Falk
M. Falk
VS
Kristiansund A. Robertsen Skiri
A. Robertsen Skiri
1.6
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Tromsø Rank: 68 L
Bodø / Glimt Rank: 83 W
Vålerenga Rank: 60 W
Start Rank: 49 D
HamKam Rank: 59 W
Lillestrøm Rank: 58 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Sandefjord Rank: 62 L
HamKam Rank: 59 D
Aalesund Rank: 41 D
Fredrikstad Rank: 60 W
Tromsø Rank: 68 L
Bodø / Glimt Rank: 82 L
8
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
8 - 2 - 6
6

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Molde
66.77%
Draw
19.68%
Away Kristiansund
13.55%

Movement

Changes since opening
Molde
-28.84%
Draw
+15.48%
Kristiansund
+13.36%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
65.74
54.85
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Molde
Kristiansund
Power Score
65.74
54.85
League Position
5
12
Global Rank
307
638

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Molde — Opponent-weighted form score
Kristiansund — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Molde Kristiansund

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Molde

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Kristiansund

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Molde ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Kristiansund
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
16.51
34.46
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
34.46
16.51
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Molde -1.82 Efficiency Index
vs
Kristiansund +1.82 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Molde
Kristiansund
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Molde
vs
Kristiansund
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Molde Kristiansund
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Molde Kristiansund
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
Molde
Kristiansund
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Molde
vs
Kristiansund
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Molde Kristiansund
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Molde 0.17
Kristiansund 0.31
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Molde Kristiansund
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Molde 0.00
Kristiansund 0.02
Molde
Kristiansund
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • Molde had peak pressure around 44'.
  • Molde started the game with stronger pressure.
Molde Pressure Kristiansund Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: Molde reached the top pressure at 44' (75.61).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 16 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Molde Molde Home
16 matches
Kristiansund Kristiansund Away
Match Record
8
Wins
6
2
Draws
2
6
Losses
8
Goals
26
Goals Scored
19
19
Goals Conceded
26
+7
Goal Difference
-7

Data last updated: 2026-05-18T08:56:33+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-4-2
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
A. Posiadała
Poland
22 A. Posiadała
H. Østervold Stenevik
Norway
18 H. Østervold Stenevik
S. Hansen
4 S. Hansen
B. Risa
Substitution
Norway
33 B. Risa
S. Kabini
South Africa
26 S. Kabini
E. Hestad
Substitution
Norway
5 E. Hestad
V. Hoff
Norway
15 V. Hoff
M. Møller Dæhli
Substitution
Norway
17 M. Møller Dæhli
O. Spiten-Nysæter
Substitution
Norway
21 O. Spiten-Nysæter
E. Breivik
Norway
10 (C) E. Breivik
F. Gulbrandsen
Substitution
Norway
8 F. Gulbrandsen
Pitch
A. Sæther
Norway
12 A. Sæther
F. Flex
Denmark
3 F. Flex
D. Ulvestad
Norway
5 (C) D. Ulvestad
J. Júlíusson
Iceland
4 J. Júlíusson
A. Munksgaard
Substitution
Denmark
13 A. Munksgaard
N. Ødegård
Substitution
Norway
8 N. Ødegård
W. Igor
Substitution
Nigeria
20 W. Igor
S. Hestetun Kilen
Norway
9 S. Hestetun Kilen
H. Gikling Bruseth
Norway
10 H. Gikling Bruseth
P. Meliga
Substitution
Nigeria
18 P. Meliga
M. Isah Ubandoma
Substitution
Nigeria
7 M. Isah Ubandoma

General Information

Date & Time :
May 16, 2026, 02:00 PM
Competition :
2026 Eliteserien, Norway · Round 9 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Aker Stadion
Capacity :
11249
Attendance :
9198
Pitch Surface :
Artificial turf
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Sigurd Smehus Kringstad
Even Myrheim
Morten Jensen
Line Cathrine Nymoen

Statistics

Possession
Molde
59%
Kristiansund
41%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 0
2 Big Chances Created 4
3 Shots 2
48 Dangerous attacks 35
63 Possession 37
3 Corners 6
15 Free kicks 6
1 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

11 Goal Kicks 8
1 Hit Woodwork 1
7 Successful Dribbles 8
7 Throwins 20
47 Successful Dribbles Percentage 42
15 Dribble Attempts 19
2 Injuries 2
8 Goal Attempts 6
1 Assists 0
5 Substitutions 5
84 Ball Safe 80

Attacking

90 Attacks 88
1 Big Chances Missed 4
1 Counter Attacks 1

Possession

89 Successful Passes Percentage 82
47 Long Passes 52
51 Successful Long Passes Percentage 44
538 Successful Passes 290
24 Successful Long Passes 23
6 Key Passes 6
606 Passes 354

Defensive

2 Saves 2
25 Tackles 14
56 Duels Won 36
10 Interceptions 8

Build-up

7 Accurate Crosses 4
19 Total Crosses 17

Discipline

6 Fouls 15
4 Offsides 2

Lineup

Referee : Sigurd Smehus Kringstad

Starting XI ▼

22
Albert Posiadala
Albert Posiadala Goalkeeper
6.97
4
S. Hansen
S. Hansen Defender
8.48
18
Halldor Stenevik
Halldor Stenevik Defender
7.08
26
Samukelo Kabini
Samukelo Kabini Defender
7.41
33
Birk Risa
Birk Risa Defender
7
19
Eirik Haugan
Eirik Haugan
Defender46'
7.3
5
Eirik Hestad
Eirik Hestad Midfielder
6.77
25
Martin Linnes
Martin Linnes
Defender70'
6.51
15
Vebjørn Hoff
Vebjørn Hoff Midfielder
8
17
Mats Møller Dæhli
Mats Møller Dæhli Midfielder
6.99
14
Jacob Christensen
Jacob Christensen
Midfielder70'
6.5
21
Oskar Spiten-Nysæter
Oskar Spiten-Nysæter Midfielder
6.56
23
Sondre Granaas
Sondre Granaas
Midfielder61'
6.83
8
Fredrik Gulbrandsen
Fredrik Gulbrandsen Attacker
6.88
28
Viktor Bender
Viktor Bender
Midfielder90'
10
Emil Breivik
Emil Breivik (C) Attacker
6.64
Referee : Sigurd Smehus Kringstad

Starting XI ▼

12
A. Sæther
A. Sæther Goalkeeper
6.63
3
F. Flex
F. Flex Defender
6.59
4
J. Júlíusson
J. Júlíusson Defender
6.53
5
D. Ulvestad
D. Ulvestad (C) Defender
7.12
13
Alexander Munksgaard
Alexander Munksgaard Defender
6.96
22
H. Haugen
H. Haugen
Defender81'
6.31
8
N. Ødegård
N. Ødegård Midfielder
6.5
27
A. Rønning
A. Rønning
Attacker70'
6.2
9
S. Kilen
S. Kilen Midfielder
6.95
10
Heine Gikling Bruseth
Heine Gikling Bruseth Midfielder
6.27
18
Promise Ikojo Meliga
Promise Ikojo Meliga Midfielder
6.77
19
L. Alvheim
L. Alvheim
Attacker54'
6.29
20
W. Igor
W. Igor Midfielder
6.53
6
Jesper Isaksen
Jesper Isaksen
Midfielder82'
6.51
7
M. Ubandoma
M. Ubandoma Attacker
6.24
23
Tobias Hammer Svendsen
Tobias Hammer Svendsen
Midfielder82'
6.32

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Viktor Bender  → Fredrik Gulbrandsen
10th Substitution
90'
82'
Event
Jesper Isaksen → W. Igor
8th Substitution
82'
Event
Tobias Hammer Svendsen → M. Ubandoma
9th Substitution
81'
Event
H. Haugen → Alexander Munksgaard
7th Substitution
77'
Event
L. Alvheim
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
Event
Samukelo Kabini
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
74'
Event
Martin Linnes → Eirik Hestad
5th Substitution
70'
Event
Jacob Christensen → Mats Møller Dæhli
4th Substitution
70'
70'
Event
A. Rønning → N. Ødegård
6th Substitution
Event
Var
62'
Event
Sondre Granaas → Oskar Spiten-Nysæter
3rd Substitution
61'
54'
Event
L. Alvheim → Promise Ikojo Meliga
2nd Substitution
Event
Eirik Haugan → Birk Risa
1st Substitution
46'
1ST-HALF
Event
Vebjørn Hoff
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
42'
16'
Event
N. Ødegård
Foul / 1st Yellowcard

CONCLUSION

Final score detail: Molde 1-0 Kristiansund. Structural assessment: Molde exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

Molde vs Kristiansund preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

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Daniels Zorge

Daniels Zorge covers football fixtures with a focus on tactical matchups, playing styles, and key details that shape each game.