Chelsea vs Manchester City Prediction, Preview and Stats

England flag 2025/2026 FA Cup, England
Wembley Stadium Sat, 16 May - 2:00 PM
FA Cup
Chelsea CHE
0 Winner 1
Manchester City MCI
Full Time Sat, 16 May 2:00 PM
Final
|
Goal

CONTEXT

Chelsea hosted Manchester City in a Premier League fixture that ended with a narrow 0-1 away win. The teams were level at halftime with a score of 0-0. Manchester City as the stronger side held 56 percent possession while Chelsea managed 44 percent. Expected goals stood at 0.79 for the home side and 1.19 for the visitors creating a differential of minus 0.4. No red cards were shown to either team throughout the contest. The final result proved consistent with the underlying performance data and Manchester City claimed the three points on the road. The match featured controlled play from the away side who edged the statistical indicators across the ninety minutes.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Final score: Chelsea 0-1 Manchester City. Manchester City showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: The efficiency shift remained in line with overall team performance.
  • xG alignment: The xG alignment showed the outcome was consistent with expected goals.
  • Market alignment: Market alignment confirmed the result matched observed indicators.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations were fulfilled with away side at 1.19 versus 0.79.
  • Event impact: Event impact centered on the single away goal deciding the match.
  • Red card distortion: Red card distortion was absent with no dismissals recorded.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

D. England

England 25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

T. Wood

1st Assistant

England

A. Howson

2nd Assistant

England

S. Barrott

4th Official

England

League averages

FA Cup Based on last 100 matches

Fouls / match 23.4
Yellow cards / match 3.87
Red cards / match 0.07
Penalties / match 0.47
Chelsea C. McFarlane
C. McFarlane
VS
Manchester City Josep Guardiola
Josep Guardiola
3
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
3
3 i
Last 6 Opponents
Leeds United Rank: 86 W
Port Vale Rank: 67 W
Wrexham Rank: 72 W
Hull City Rank: 72 W
Charlton Athletic Rank: 65 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
3 i
Last 6 Opponents
Southampton Rank: 78 W
Liverpool Rank: 91 W
Newcastle United Rank: 89 W
Salford City Rank: 69 W
Exeter City Rank: 67 W
26
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
26 - 8 - 25
25

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Chelsea
21.97%
Draw
24.49%
Away Manchester City
53.53%

Movement

Changes since opening
Chelsea
+21.78%
Draw
+18.84%
Manchester City
-40.63%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
87.97
98.83
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Chelsea
Manchester City
Power Score
87.97
98.83
League Position
-
-
Global Rank
19
2

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Chelsea — Opponent-weighted form score
Manchester City — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Chelsea Manchester City

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Chelsea

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Manchester City

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Chelsea ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Manchester City
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
19.89
20.54
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
20.54
19.89
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Chelsea -0.05 Efficiency Index
vs
Manchester City +0.05 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Chelsea
Manchester City
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Chelsea
vs
Manchester City
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Chelsea Manchester City
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Chelsea Manchester City
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
Chelsea
Manchester City
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Chelsea
vs
Manchester City
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Chelsea Manchester City
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Chelsea 0.20
Manchester City 0.18
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Chelsea Manchester City
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Chelsea 0.02
Manchester City 0.00
Chelsea
Manchester City
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • CHE had peak pressure around 63'.
  • MCI started the game with stronger pressure.
CHE Pressure MCI Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: CHE reached the top pressure at 63' (78.76).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 59 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Chelsea CHE Home
59 matches
Manchester City MCI Away
Match Record
26
Wins
25
8
Draws
8
25
Losses
26
Goals
74
Goals Scored
72
72
Goals Conceded
74
+2
Goal Difference
-2

Data last updated: 2026-05-18T08:57:02+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-4-2-1
Match Formation 4-2-2-2
Pitch
R. Lynch Sanchez
Spain
1 R. Lynch Sanchez
W. Fofana
France
29 W. Fofana
L. Colwill
England
6 L. Colwill
J. Hato
Netherlands
21 J. Hato
M. Gusto
France
27 M. Gusto
R. James
Substitution
England
24 (C) R. James
M. Caicedo Corozo
Ecuador
25 M. Caicedo Corozo
M. Cucurella
Substitution
Spain
3 M. Cucurella
C. Palmer
England
10 C. Palmer
E. Fernández
Argentina
8 E. Fernández
J. Junqueira de Jesus
Substitution
Brazil
20 J. Junqueira de Jesus
Pitch
J. Trafford
England
1 J. Trafford
N. O'Reilly
England
33 N. O'Reilly
M. Guehi
England
15 M. Guehi
A. Khusanov
Uzbekistan
45 A. Khusanov
M. Nunes
Portugal
27 M. Nunes
B. Silva
Portugal
20 (C) B. Silva
Rodri
Substitution
Spain
16 Rodri
J. Doku
Belgium
11 J. Doku
A. Semenyo
Ghana
42 A. Semenyo
E. Haaland
Norway
9 E. Haaland
O. Marmoush
Substitution
Egypt
7 O. Marmoush

General Information

Date & Time :
May 16, 2026, 02:00 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 FA Cup, England · Final
Stadium :
Wembley Stadium
Capacity :
90000
Attendance :
83337
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Darren England
Tim Wood
Akil Howson
Samuel Barrott

Statistics

Possession
CHE
46%
MCI
54%

Top Statistics

0 Goals 1
0 Big Chances Created 1
5 Shots 7
35 Dangerous attacks 50
44 Possession 56
4 Corners 4
16 Free kicks 19
3 Yellow Cards 1

Match Overview

60 Successful Dribbles Percentage 64
3 Substitutions 2
0 Assists 1
3 Injuries 0
19 Throwins 7
6 Successful Dribbles 14
4 Goal Attempts 7
8 Successful Headers 12
10 Dribble Attempts 22
5 Goal Kicks 3
0 Hit Woodwork 1
72 Ball Safe 76

Attacking

76 Attacks 90
0 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

418 Passes 541
5 Key Passes 6
58 Long Passes 32
83 Successful Passes Percentage 87
24 Successful Long Passes 13
349 Successful Passes 471
41 Successful Long Passes Percentage 41

Defensive

6 Interceptions 5
15 Tackles 7
43 Duels Won 48
4 Saves 0

Build-up

4 Accurate Crosses 3
18 Total Crosses 6

Discipline

3 Offsides 3
15 Fouls 13

Lineup

Referee : Darren England

Starting XI ▼

1
Robert Sánchez
Robert Sánchez Goalkeeper
6.98
6
Levi Colwill
Levi Colwill Defender
6.61
21
Jorrel Hato
Jorrel Hato Defender
6.39
29
Wesley Fofana
Wesley Fofana Defender
6.85
3
Marc Cucurella
Marc Cucurella Midfielder
6.7
7
Pedro Neto
Pedro Neto
Attacker74'
6.66
24
Reece James
Reece James (C) Midfielder
6.81
9
Liam Delap
Liam Delap
Attacker83'
6.52
25
Moisés Caicedo
Moisés Caicedo Midfielder
6.74
27
Malo Gusto
Malo Gusto Midfielder
6.59
8
Enzo Fernández
Enzo Fernández Attacker
6.99
10
Cole Palmer
Cole Palmer Attacker
6.67
20
João Pedro
João Pedro Attacker
6.65
49
Alejandro Garnacho
Alejandro Garnacho
Attacker86'
Referee : Darren England

Starting XI ▼

1
James Trafford
James Trafford Goalkeeper
6.64
15
Marc Guéhi
Marc Guéhi Defender
7.65
27
Matheus Nunes
Matheus Nunes Defender
7.02
33
Nico O'Reilly
Nico O'Reilly Defender
7.08
45
Abdukodir Khusanov
Abdukodir Khusanov Defender
7
11
Jérémy Doku
Jérémy Doku Midfielder
7.18
16
Rodri
Rodri Midfielder
7.19
8
Mateo Kovacic
Mateo Kovacic
Midfielder65'
6.59
20
Bernardo Silva
Bernardo Silva (C) Midfielder
6.86
42
Antoine Semenyo
Antoine Semenyo Midfielder
7.29
7
Omar Marmoush
Omar Marmoush Attacker
6.63
10
Rayan Cherki
Rayan Cherki
Midfielder46'
6.7
9
Erling Haaland
Erling Haaland Attacker
7.16

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Moisés Caicedo
Argument / 4th Yellowcard
90+2'
Event
Alejandro Garnacho → João Pedro
5th Substitution
86'
Event
Liam Delap → Reece James 
4th Substitution
83'
Event
Pedro Neto  → Marc Cucurella
3rd Substitution
74'
72'
Event
Antoine Semenyo
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
65'
Event
Mateo Kovacic  → Rodri
2nd Substitution
56'
Event
Abdukodir Khusanov
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
46'
Event
Rayan Cherki → Omar Marmoush
1st Substitution
1ST-HALF
Event
Marc Cucurella
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
32'
Event
Enzo Fernández
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
29'

Match Commentary

90
Update Update
Liam Delap's header attempt misses the target.
90
Attempt Attempt
Pedro Neto's left-footed shot is blocked.
90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Moises Caicedo receives a yellow card.
86
Update Update
Alejandro Garnacho comes on for João Pedro Junqueira de Jesus.
85
Attempt Attempt
Mathis Ryan Cherki takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
83
Update Update
Liam Delap comes on for Reece James.
74
Attempt Attempt
Enzo Fernandez takes a right-footed shot but misses.
74
Update Update
Pedro Neto comes on for Marc Cucurella.
72
Attempt Attempt
Antoine Semenyo takes a shot with his right foot and scores.
72
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Antoine Semenyo scores, making it 1-0.
65
Update Update
Mateo Kovacic comes on for Rodrigo Hernandez.
59
Attempt Attempt
Wesley Fofana attempts a header but misses the shot.
56
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued to Abdukodir Khusanov.
55
Update Update
Moises Caicedo's header is blocked.
47
Attempt Attempt
Antoine Semenyo attempts a header but misses the shot.
46
Update Update
Mathis Ryan Cherki comes on for Omar Marmoush.
43
Attempt Attempt
Erling Haaland's left-footed shot is saved.
41
Attempt Attempt
Marc Cucurella takes a left-footed shot but misses.
32
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Marc Cucurella receives a yellow card.
29
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Enzo Fernandez receives a yellow card.
23
Attempt Attempt
Erling Haaland takes a left-footed shot but misses.
22
Attempt Attempt
João Pedro Junqueira de Jesus takes a right-footed shot but misses.
10
Attempt Attempt
Rodrigo Hernandez attempts a header but misses the shot.
8
Attempt Attempt
Antoine Semenyo takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
7
Attempt Attempt
Omar Marmoush takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
7
Attempt Attempt
Antoine Semenyo takes a left-footed shot, but it is blocked.

CONCLUSION

Manchester City secured a 0-1 victory over Chelsea through disciplined defending and efficient use of limited chances. The visitors maintained a slight edge in possession and created marginally better opportunities according to expected goals data. With the halftime score locked at 0-0 both teams adjusted approaches in the second period yet the away side found the decisive moment. Absence of red cards allowed full-strength lineups to contest the full duration without numerical imbalances. The result reflected the pre-match assessment of Manchester City as the stronger team and delivered three points on the road. Overall the contest highlighted controlled execution from the winners in a low-scoring affair.

Chelsea vs Manchester City preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

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