Blau-Weiß Linz vs Grazer AK Prediction, Preview and Stats

Austria flag 2025/2026 Admiral Bundesliga, Austria
Linzer Stadion Sat, 16 May - 3:00 PM
Admiral Bundesliga
Blau-Weiß Linz BWL
0 Winner 3
Grazer AK GAK
Full Time Sat, 16 May 3:00 PM
Round 10 Relegation Round
|
Goal
Daniel Maderner - 90+1'
Alexander Hofleitner - 51'
Christian Lichtenberger - 6'

CONTEXT

Blau-Weiß Linz faced Grazer AK and suffered a 0-3 defeat in the end. The halftime score was 0-1 in favor of the visitors. Home side dominated possession with 63 percent but could not find the net. Grazer AK managed their 37 percent possession effectively to score three goals. Expected goals favored the away team at 1.46 compared to 0.83. This outcome was consistent with the xG data and marked a significant structural deviation for the stronger side. The match saw no red cards and proceeded without major interruptions. The first half saw Grazer AK take the lead through a well-executed play that caught the defense off guard. In the second half, they added two more goals to seal the victory convincingly. Blau-Weiß Linz struggled to create clear chances despite their territorial advantage.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Grazer AK showed significant structural deviation from pre-match projections.
  • Efficiency shift: The efficiency shift was in line with overall team performances.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was consistent with the xG figures of 0.83 to 1.46.
  • Market alignment: The result did not match market alignment expectations.
  • xG expectations: Away side surpassed xG expectations in securing the victory.
  • Event impact: The halftime lead of 0-1 proved decisive in the eventual 0-3 win.
  • Red card distortion: Absence of red cards meant no distortion in match flow.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

J. Weinberger

Austria 25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

A. Heidenreich

1st Assistant

Austria

M. Kolbitsch

2nd Assistant

Austria

S. Ebner

4th Official

Austria

League averages

Admiral Bundesliga Based on last 100 matches

Fouls / match 22.05
Yellow cards / match 3.67
Red cards / match 0.27
Penalties / match 0.35
Blau-Weiß Linz M. Köllner
M. Köllner
VS
Grazer AK F. Feldhofer
F. Feldhofer
1.06
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.39
1.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
WSG Tirol Rank: 52 D
Ried Rank: 52 L
Rheindorf Altach Rank: 54 W
Wolfsberger AC Rank: 60 W
Wolfsberger AC Rank: 60 D
WSG Tirol Rank: 51 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Rheindorf Altach Rank: 52 D
WSG Tirol Rank: 53 W
Wolfsberger AC Rank: 57 L
Ried Rank: 52 L
Ried Rank: 52 D
Rheindorf Altach Rank: 53 L
1
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
1 - 1 - 3
3

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Blau-Weiß Linz
44.35%
Draw
27.73%
Away Grazer AK
27.92%

Movement

Changes since opening
Blau-Weiß Linz
+44.11%
Draw
+25.81%
Grazer AK
-69.92%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
50.93
53.71
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Blau-Weiß Linz
Grazer AK
Power Score
50.93
53.71
League Position
12
11
Global Rank
760
669

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Blau-Weiß Linz — Opponent-weighted form score
Grazer AK — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Blau-Weiß Linz Grazer AK

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Blau-Weiß Linz

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Grazer AK

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Blau-Weiß Linz ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Grazer AK
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
23.57
47.03
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
47.03
23.57
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Blau-Weiß Linz -1.99 Efficiency Index
vs
Grazer AK +1.99 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Blau-Weiß Linz
Grazer AK
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Blau-Weiß Linz
vs
Grazer AK
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Blau-Weiß Linz Grazer AK
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Blau-Weiß Linz Grazer AK
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
Blau-Weiß Linz
Grazer AK
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Blau-Weiß Linz
vs
Grazer AK
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Blau-Weiß Linz Grazer AK
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Blau-Weiß Linz 0.21
Grazer AK 0.31
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Blau-Weiß Linz Grazer AK
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Blau-Weiß Linz 0.06
Grazer AK 0.00
Blau-Weiß Linz
Grazer AK
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • GAK had peak pressure around 101'.
  • BWL started the game with stronger pressure.
BWL Pressure GAK Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: GAK reached the top pressure at 101' (70.79).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 5 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Blau-Weiß Linz BWL Home
5 matches
Grazer AK GAK Away
Match Record
1
Wins
3
1
Draws
1
3
Losses
1
Goals
8
Goals Scored
9
9
Goals Conceded
8
-1
Goal Difference
+1

Data last updated: 2026-05-18T08:57:22+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-4-1-2
Match Formation 3-1-4-2
Pitch
N. Mantl
Germany
58 N. Mantl
A. Pasic
Substitution
Austria
17 A. Pasic
M. Maranda
Austria
15 M. Maranda
F. Strauss
Substitution
Austria
2 (C) F. Strauss
D. Reiter
Austria
29 D. Reiter
S. Seidl
Austria
20 S. Seidl
A. Briedl
Austria
19 A. Briedl
S. Pirkl
Substitution
Austria
60 S. Pirkl
N. Maier
Substitution
Switzerland
30 N. Maier
R. Sales
Brazil
9 R. Sales
S. Weissman
Substitution
Israel
18 S. Weissman
Pitch
F. Stolz
Austria
12 F. Stolz
M. Kreuzriegler
Substitution
Austria
4 M. Kreuzriegler
D. Pines
United States
2 D. Pines
B. Owusu
France
82 B. Owusu
M. Olesen
Luxembourg
6 M. Olesen
L. Klassen
Russia
32 L. Klassen
C. Lichtenberger
Substitution
Austria
10 C. Lichtenberger
T. Schriebl
Substitution
Austria
20 (C) T. Schriebl
J. Italiano
Australia
14 J. Italiano
R. Harakaté
Substitution
France
22 R. Harakaté
A. Hofleitner
Substitution
Austria
25 A. Hofleitner

General Information

Date & Time :
May 16, 2026, 03:00 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Admiral Bundesliga, Austria · Round 10 · Relegation Round
Stadium :
Linzer Stadion
Capacity :
21005
Attendance :
5595
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Julian Weinberger
Andreas Heidenreich
Maximilian Kolbitsch
Stefan Ebner

Statistics

Possession
BWL
57%
GAK
43%

Top Statistics

0 Goals 3
1 Big Chances Created 5
2 Shots 2
57 Dangerous attacks 48
63 Possession 37
3 Corners 4
12 Free kicks 13
1 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

12 Dribble Attempts 10
50 Successful Dribbles Percentage 40
87 Ball Safe 61
0 Injuries 1
6 Successful Dribbles 4
8 Goal Kicks 13
0 Assists 3
31 Throwins 17
8 Goal Attempts 9
5 Substitutions 5

Attacking

1 Big Chances Missed 3
106 Attacks 105

Possession

76 Successful Passes Percentage 62
442 Passes 269
27 Successful Long Passes 25
67 Long Passes 68
334 Successful Passes 166
5 Key Passes 13
40 Successful Long Passes Percentage 37

Defensive

4 Saves 5
54 Duels Won 59
14 Tackles 19
5 Interceptions 12

Build-up

26 Total Crosses 14
2 Accurate Crosses 2

Discipline

2 Offsides 5
13 Fouls 12

Lineup

Referee : Julian Weinberger

Starting XI ▼

58
Nico Mantl
Nico Mantl Goalkeeper
6.81
2
Fabio Varesi-Strauss
Fabio Varesi-Strauss (C) Defender
6.21
4
Elias Bakatukanda
Elias Bakatukanda
Defender63'
6.28
15
Manuel Maranda
Manuel Maranda Defender
6.97
17
Alem Pasic
Alem Pasic Defender
6.53
22
David Riegler
David Riegler
Defender85'
6.26
19
Alexander Briedl
Alexander Briedl Midfielder
6.73
20
Simon Seidl
Simon Seidl Midfielder
6.5
29
Dominik Reiter
Dominik Reiter Midfielder
6.57
60
Simon Pirkl
Simon Pirkl Midfielder
6.26
5
Isak Dahlqvist
Isak Dahlqvist
Midfielder46'
6.23
9
Ronivaldo
Ronivaldo Attacker
6.89
18
Shon Weissman
Shon Weissman Attacker
6.4
10
Paul Mensah
Paul Mensah
Attacker78'
6.51
30
Nico Maier
Nico Maier Attacker
6.88
14
Christopher Cvetko
Christopher Cvetko
Midfielder63'
6.25
Referee : Julian Weinberger

Starting XI ▼

12
Franz Stolz
Franz Stolz Goalkeeper
8.07
2
Donovan Pines
Donovan Pines Defender
7.36
4
Martin Kreuzriegler
Martin Kreuzriegler Defender
6.62
3
Ludwig Vraa-Jensen
Ludwig Vraa-Jensen
Defender46'
6.6
82
Beres Owusu
Beres Owusu Defender
6.93
6
Mathias Olesen
Mathias Olesen Midfielder
8.16
10
Christian Lichtenberger
Christian Lichtenberger Midfielder
7.35
7
Murat Satin
Murat Satin
Midfielder65'
6.75
14
Jacob Italiano
Jacob Italiano Midfielder
6.84
20
Thorsten Schriebl
Thorsten Schriebl (C) Midfielder
6.41
8
Tobias Koch
Tobias Koch
Midfielder21'
7.65
32
Leon Klassen
Leon Klassen Midfielder
7.86
22
Ramiz Harakate
Ramiz Harakate Attacker
6.39
28
Dominik Frieser
Dominik Frieser
Attacker87'
6.65
25
Alexander Hofleitner
Alexander Hofleitner Attacker
7.37
9
Daniel Maderner
Daniel Maderner
Attacker65'
7.48

Events

2ND-HALF
90+1'
Event
Daniel Maderner
Left foot shot / 3rd Goal
87'
Event
Dominik Frieser → Ramiz Harakate
10th Substitution
Event
David Riegler → Alem Pasic
9th Substitution
85'
Event
Paul Mensah → Shon Weissman
8th Substitution
78'
Event
Dominik Reiter
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
75'
73'
Event
Ferdinand Feldhofer
Argument / 4th Yellowcard
65'
Event
Daniel Maderner → Alexander Hofleitner
6th Substitution
65'
Event
Murat Satin → Christian Lichtenberger
7th Substitution
Event
Elias Bakatukanda → Fabio Varesi-Strauss
4th Substitution
63'
Event
Christopher Cvetko → Nico Maier
5th Substitution
63'
51'
Event
Alexander Hofleitner
Left foot shot / 2nd Goal
Event
Isak Dahlqvist → Simon Pirkl
2nd Substitution
46'
46'
Event
Ludwig Vraa-Jensen → Martin Kreuzriegler
3rd Substitution
1ST-HALF
45+3'
Event
Tobias Koch
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
21'
Event
Tobias Koch → Thorsten Schriebl
1st Substitution
6'
Event
Christian Lichtenberger
Left foot shot / 1st Goal
5'
Event
Martin Kreuzriegler
Foul / 1st Yellowcard

Match Commentary

90
Attempt Attempt
Daniel Maderner scores with a left-footed shot.
90
Attempt Attempt
Leon Klassen takes a left-footed shot but misses.
90
Attempt Attempt
Daniel Maderner scores with a left-footed shot.
90
Attempt Attempt
Daniel Maderner takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
90
Attempt Attempt
Daniel Maderner takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
89
Attempt Attempt
Jacob Italiano takes a right-footed shot but misses.
87
Update Update
Dominik Frieser comes on for Ramiz Harakate.
86
Attempt Attempt
Alexander Briedl takes a left-footed shot but misses.
85
Update Update
David Riegler replaces Alem Pasic.
83
Attempt Attempt
Ramiz Harakate takes a left-footed shot but misses.
81
Attempt Attempt
Simon Seidl takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
79
Attempt Attempt
Ramiz Harakate takes a left-footed shot but misses.
77
Update Update
Paul Mensah is on, and Shon Weissman is off.
76
Attempt Attempt
Simon Seidl takes a right-footed shot, but it is saved.
65
Attempt Attempt
Shon Weissman takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
65
Substitution Substitution
Daniel Maderner is substituted for Alexander Hofleitner.
65
Attempt Attempt
Shon Weissman takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
65
Update Update
Murat Satin replaces Christian Lichtenberger.
65
Attempt Attempt
Manuel Maranda's right-footed shot is saved.
63
Update Update
Christopher Cvetko replaces Nico Maier.
63
Update Update
Elias Bakatukanda is on, and Fabio Strauss is off.
58
Attempt Attempt
Nico Maier's left-footed shot is blocked.
56
Attempt Attempt
Christian Lichtenberger takes a shot with his head, but it misses the target.
46
Update Update
Isak Dahlqvist replaces Simon Pipkl.
46
Update Update
Isak Dahlqvist comes on for Simon Pipkl.
45
Attempt Attempt
Dominik Reiter takes a right-footed shot but misses.
45
Attempt Attempt
Dominik Reiter's left-footed shot is blocked.
45
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Tobias Koch receives a yellow card.
43
Attempt Attempt
Christian Lichtenberger's right-footed shot is blocked.
42
Attempt Attempt
Ramiz Harakate takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
39
Attempt Attempt
Mathias Olesen takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
38
Attempt Attempt
Alexander Hofleitner takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
38
Attempt Attempt
Ramiz Harakate's left-footed shot is saved.
33
Attempt Attempt
Beres Owusu takes a right-footed shot but misses.
31
Attempt Attempt
Nico Maier takes a left-footed shot but misses.
29
Attempt Attempt
Mathias Olesen takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
21
Update Update
Tobias Koch replaces Thorsten Schriebl.
18
Attempt Attempt
Simon Seidl takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
6
Attempt Attempt
Ronivaldo Bernardo Sales takes a shot with his head but misses.
6
Attempt Attempt
Christian Lichtenberger takes a shot with his left foot and scores.
5
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Martin Kreuzriegler receives a yellow card.

CONCLUSION

Grazer AK secured a comprehensive victory away from home against Blau-Weiß Linz with a final score of 0-3. Their clinical finishing and organized defense were key factors in overcoming the home team's possession dominance. With an xG of 1.46, they outperformed expectations and delivered a performance aligned with their status as the stronger side. The absence of any disciplinary issues allowed the game to flow naturally. This result underscores Grazer AK's ability to capitalize on opportunities efficiently. Fans can look forward to more such displays as the season progresses. The match highlighted important lessons for both teams moving ahead. Blau-Weiß Linz will need to improve their conversion rate in future encounters to compete better.

Blau-Weiß Linz vs Grazer AK preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

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Alf Indseth

Alf Indseth writes football-focused analysis that looks beyond match results to explore form, value, and market context.