Almería vs Las Palmas Prediction, Preview and Stats

Spain flag 2025/2026 La Liga 2, Spain
Estadio de los Juegos Mediterráneos Sat, 16 May - 4:30 PM
La Liga 2
Almería ALM
1 Winner 2
Las Palmas LPA
Full Time Sat, 16 May 4:30 PM
Round 40 Regular Season
Adrián Embarba - 61'
Goal
|
Goal
Pejiño - 81'
Enrique Clemente - 79'
Federico Bonini 90+9' Second yellow card
|

CONTEXT

Almería hosted Las Palmas in a match that ended 1-2 after a goalless first half. The home side held 54 percent possession but received a red card that altered the flow in the second half. Las Palmas capitalized on the numerical advantage to secure the victory despite entering as the perceived weaker side. The outcome represented a significant deviation from initial projections centered on Almería. Both teams created limited clear opportunities before the dismissal shifted momentum decisively. Las Palmas managed the game effectively after the break to claim all three points on the road. The result highlighted how a single event can reshape the contest entirely.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Las Palmas produced a significant deviation from pre-match expectations to claim the win.
  • Efficiency shift: Team efficiency remained in line with the adjusted second-half performance levels.
  • xG alignment: Expected goals data was unavailable to determine outcome alignment.
  • Market alignment: The final result was not aligned with pre-match market projections.
  • xG expectations: Expected goals metrics could not be assessed due to missing data.
  • Event impact: Key second-half events directly influenced the 1-2 final scoreline.
  • Red card distortion: The home red card distorted match dynamics and favored Las Palmas.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

L. Bestard Servera

Spain 25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

V. Jiménez Yustos

1st Assistant

Spain

V. Almarche González

2nd Assistant

Spain

F. Sáiz Villares

4th Official

Spain

League averages

La Liga 2 Based on last 100 matches

Fouls / match 22.86
Yellow cards / match 4.82
Red cards / match 0.27
Penalties / match 0.33
Almería J. Ferrer Sicilia
J. Ferrer Sicilia
VS
Las Palmas L. García Fernández
L. García Fernández
1.81
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.6
2.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Burgos Rank: 68 D
Mirandés Rank: 60 W
Granada Rank: 64 W
Málaga Rank: 70 W
Racing Santander Rank: 72 L
Leganés Rank: 63 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2 i
Last 6 Opponents
FC Andorra Rank: 66 L
Real Valladolid Rank: 61 W
Cádiz Rank: 56 W
Leganés Rank: 63 W
Málaga Rank: 70 L
Huesca Rank: 57 W
9
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
9 - 7 - 5
5

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Almería
50.19%
Draw
25.63%
Away Las Palmas
24.18%

Movement

Changes since opening
Almería
+50%
Draw
+21.43%
Las Palmas
-71.43%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
69.98
63.04
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Almería
Las Palmas
Power Score
69.98
63.04
League Position
3
5
Global Rank
203
193

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Almería — Opponent-weighted form score
Las Palmas — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Almería Las Palmas

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Almería

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Las Palmas

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Almería ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Las Palmas
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
39.63
34.02
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
34.02
39.63
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Almería +0.56 Efficiency Index
vs
Las Palmas -0.56 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Almería
Las Palmas
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Almería ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Las Palmas
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Almería Las Palmas
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Almería Las Palmas
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Almería
Las Palmas
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Almería
vs
Las Palmas
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Almería Las Palmas
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Almería 0.26
Las Palmas 0.42
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Almería Las Palmas
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Almería 0.06
Las Palmas 0.01
Almería
Las Palmas
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • LPA had peak pressure around 82'.
  • ALM started the game with stronger pressure.
ALM Pressure LPA Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: LPA reached the top pressure at 82' (78.44).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 21 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Almería ALM Home
21 matches
Las Palmas LPA Away
Match Record
9
Wins
5
7
Draws
7
5
Losses
9
Goals
30
Goals Scored
22
22
Goals Conceded
30
+8
Goal Difference
-8

Data last updated: 2026-05-18T08:57:44+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-4-2
Pitch
A. Fernández Moreno
Spain
1 A. Fernández Moreno
M. Ruiz
Spain
16 M. Ruiz
R. Ely
Brazil
5 R. Ely
F. Bonini
Italy
18 F. Bonini
A. Muñoz Miguel
Spain
3 A. Muñoz Miguel
S. Dzodic
Substitution
Serbia
29 S. Dzodic
A. Luz Horta
Substitution
Portugal
6 A. Luz Horta
L. Carrilho Baptistão
Substitution
Brazil
12 (C) L. Carrilho Baptistão
S. Arribas Calvo
Spain
11 S. Arribas Calvo
A. Embarba Blázquez
Substitution
Spain
23 A. Embarba Blázquez
M. De la Fuente Escudero
Substitution
Spain
24 M. De la Fuente Escudero
Pitch
D. Horkaš
Croatia
1 D. Horkaš
E. Clemente Maza
Spain
5 E. Clemente Maza
M. Marmol Medina
Spain
3 M. Marmol Medina
Á. Suárez
Substitution
Spain
4 Á. Suárez
M. Olawale Akinlabi Park
Substitution
Spain
2 M. Olawale Akinlabi Park
E. Pedrola Fortuny
Substitution
Spain
39 E. Pedrola Fortuny
L. Amatucci
Italy
16 L. Amatucci
K. Rodríguez Concepción
Spain
20 (C) K. Rodríguez Concepción
T. Miyashiro
Substitution
Japan
18 T. Miyashiro
M. Fuster Lázaro
Spain
14 M. Fuster Lázaro
J. Rodríguez Ruiz
Substitution
Spain
10 J. Rodríguez Ruiz

General Information

Date & Time :
May 16, 2026, 04:30 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 La Liga 2, Spain · Round 40 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Estadio de los Juegos Mediterráneos
Capacity :
17400
Attendance :
16012
Pitch Surface :
N/A
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Lluís Bestard Servera
Víctor Jiménez Yustos
Vicente Javier Almarche González
F. Sáiz Villares

Statistics

Possession
ALM
53%
LPA
47%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 2
3 Big Chances Created 2
5 Shots 6
68 Dangerous attacks 33
54 Possession 46
5 Corners 5
10 Free kicks 20
3 Yellow Cards 1
1 Red Cards 0

Match Overview

1 Hit Woodwork 0
13 Goal Attempts 8
49 Ball Safe 55
4 Goal Kicks 13
5 Substitutions 5
5 Successful Dribbles 8
0 Assists 1
17 Throwins 11
10 Dribble Attempts 13
50 Successful Dribbles Percentage 62
0 Injuries 1

Attacking

2 Big Chances Missed 1
107 Attacks 55

Possession

87 Successful Passes Percentage 84
13 Successful Long Passes 13
404 Successful Passes 346
45 Successful Long Passes Percentage 35
29 Long Passes 37
13 Key Passes 11
466 Passes 413

Defensive

4 Saves 4
7 Tackles 19
26 Duels Won 54
6 Interceptions 4

Build-up

7 Accurate Crosses 1
25 Total Crosses 12

Discipline

2 Offsides 1
20 Fouls 10

Lineup

Referee : Lluís Bestard Servera

Starting XI ▼

1
Andrés Fernández
Andrés Fernández Goalkeeper
6.97
3
Álex Muñoz
Álex Muñoz Defender
6.52
5
Rodrigo Ely
Rodrigo Ely Defender
6.57
16
Marcos Luna
Marcos Luna Defender
6.69
18
Federico Bonini
Federico Bonini Defender
6.63
6
André Horta
André Horta Midfielder
6.96
2
Arnau Puigmal
Arnau Puigmal
Midfielder70'
6.04
11
Sergio Arribas
Sergio Arribas Midfielder
7.19
12
Léo Baptistão
Léo Baptistão (C) Midfielder
6.53
14
Iddrisu Baba
Iddrisu Baba
Midfielder70'
6.41
23
Adrián Embarba
Adrián Embarba Midfielder
7.56
7
Jon Morcillo
Jon Morcillo
Attacker82'
6.64
29
Stefan Dzodic
Stefan Dzodic Midfielder
7.1
10
Nico Melamed
Nico Melamed
Midfielder82'
6.38
24
Miguel de la Fuente
Miguel de la Fuente Attacker
6.43
9
Thalys
Thalys
Attacker75'
6.53
Referee : Lluís Bestard Servera

Starting XI ▼

1
Dinko Horkas
Dinko Horkas Goalkeeper
7.16
2
Marvin Park
Marvin Park Defender
6.6
15
Juanma Herzog
Juanma Herzog
Defender69'
6.92
3
Mika Mármol
Mika Mármol Defender
7.09
4
Álex Suárez
Álex Suárez Defender
6.63
27
Valentín Pezzolesi
Valentín Pezzolesi
Defender74'
6.54
5
Enrique Clemente
Enrique Clemente Defender
7.73
16
Lorenzo Amatucci
Lorenzo Amatucci Midfielder
6.94
18
Taisei Miyashiro
Taisei Miyashiro Midfielder
6.73
21
Jonathan Viera
Jonathan Viera
Midfielder69'
6.83
20
Kirian Rodríguez
Kirian Rodríguez (C) Midfielder
7.68
39
Estanis Pedrola
Estanis Pedrola Midfielder
6.97
24
Pejiño
Pejiño
Attacker74'
7.24
10
Jesé
Jesé Attacker
6.98
49
Iker Bravo
Iker Bravo
Attacker87'
14
Manu Fuster
Manu Fuster Attacker
6.98

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Federico Bonini
Foul / 1st Yellow/red Card
90+9'
87'
Event
Iker Bravo → Jesé
10th Substitution
Event
Marcos Luna
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
84'
Event
Nico Melamed → Stefan Dzodic
8th Substitution
82'
Event
Jon Morcillo → Adrián Embarba
9th Substitution
82'
81'
Event
Pejiño
Left foot shot / 3rd Goal
79'
Event
Enrique Clemente
Left foot shot / 2nd Goal
Event
Thalys → Miguel de la Fuente
7th Substitution
75'
74'
Event
Valentín Pezzolesi → Álex Suárez
6th Substitution
74'
Event
Pejiño → Estanis Pedrola
5th Substitution
Event
Arnau Puigmal → André Horta
4th Substitution
70'
Event
Iddrisu Baba → Léo Baptistão
3rd Substitution
70'
69'
Event
Juanma Herzog → Marvin Park
1st Substitution
69'
Event
Jonathan Viera → Taisei Miyashiro
2nd Substitution
Event
Adrián Embarba
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
61'
Event
Federico Bonini
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
59'
49'
Event
Estanis Pedrola
Simulation / 1st Yellowcard

Match Commentary

90
Attempt Attempt
Nicolas Melamed Ribaudo takes a shot with his right foot, but it's blocked.
90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Federico Bonini receives a second yellow card.
90
Attempt Attempt
Jonathan Viera Ramos takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
85
Attempt Attempt
Nicolas Melamed Ribaudo takes a right-footed shot but misses.
83
Update Update
Nicolas Melamed Ribaudo comes on for Adrian Embarba.
82
Update Update
Jon Morcillo comes on for Adrian Embarba.
81
Attempt Attempt
Shot! Pejino scores with a left-footed shot.
79
Attempt Attempt
Enrique Clemente scores with a left-footed shot.
79
Attempt Attempt
Shot! Pejino scores with a left-footed shot.
78
Attempt Attempt
Lorenzo Amatucci's right-footed shot is blocked.
78
Attempt Attempt
Lorenzo Amatucci takes a right-footed shot, but it is saved.
75
Update Update
Thalys Gomes De Araujo is on, and Miguel De la Fuente is off.
74
Update Update
Pejino comes on for Estanis Pedrola.
74
Update Update
Valentin Pezzolesi replaces Alex Suarez.
70
Update Update
Arnau Puigmal comes on for André Filipe Horta.
70
Update Update
Iddrisu Baba comes on for Leonardo Carrilho Baptistao.
69
Attempt Attempt
Stefan Džodić takes a right-footed shot but misses.
69
Substitution Substitution
Juanma Herzog is substituted off for Marvin Olawale Akinlabi at Park.
69
Update Update
Jonathan Viera Ramos is on, and Taisei Miyashiro is off.
61
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Adrian Embarba scores to make it 1-0.
61
Attempt Attempt
Sergio Arribas Calvo takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
61
Attempt Attempt
Adrian Embarba scores with a right-footed shot.
59
Attempt Attempt
Leonardo Carrilho Baptistao takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
58
Attempt Attempt
Estanis Pedrola's right-footed shot is saved.
57
Attempt Attempt
Manuel Fuster takes a left-footed shot but misses.
53
Update Update
Adrian Embarba takes a header, but it goes wide.
48
Attempt Attempt
Estanis Pedrola's right-footed shot is blocked.
47
Attempt Attempt
Manuel Fuster takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
46
Attempt Attempt
Stefan Džodić takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
45
Attempt Attempt
Federico Bonini attempts a header but misses the shot.
45
Attempt Attempt
Miguel De la Fuente takes a left-footed shot, but it is blocked.
31
Attempt Attempt
Sergio Arribas Calvo takes a left-footed shot but misses.
30
Attempt Attempt
Estanis Pedrola's right-footed shot is blocked.
27
Attempt Attempt
Jese Rodriguez Ruiz takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
25
Attempt Attempt
Adrian Embarba's header is saved.
24
Attempt Attempt
Adrian Embarba takes a right-footed shot but misses.
21
Attempt Attempt
Leonardo Carrilho Baptistao takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
20
Attempt Attempt
Alex Munoz takes a left-footed shot that hits the post.
14
Attempt Attempt
André Filipe Horta misses with a right-footed shot.
11
Attempt Attempt
Estanis Pedrola takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
7
Attempt Attempt
Leonardo Carrilho Baptistao takes a right-footed shot but misses.
4
Attempt Attempt
Taisei Miyashiro takes a right-footed shot but misses.
2
Attempt Attempt
Sergio Arribas Calvo takes a left-footed shot but misses.

CONCLUSION

Las Palmas secured a 1-2 victory at Almería after both sides were level 0-0 at halftime. The away side overcame a possession deficit through clinical finishing once the home team was reduced to ten men. Almería controlled much of the ball but could not convert territorial dominance into a lead before the dismissal. The red card proved pivotal in allowing Las Palmas to reorganize and exploit spaces effectively during the closing stages. This result underscores the importance of maintaining discipline throughout the full ninety minutes. Las Palmas demonstrated resilience and tactical awareness to turn the numerical advantage into three points. The performance offers valuable lessons on adapting to in-game disruptions for both squads moving forward.

Almería vs Las Palmas preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

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