Almería vs Las Palmas Prediction, Preview and Stats

Spain flag 2025/2026 La Liga 2, Spain
Estadio de los Juegos Mediterráneos Tomorrow - 4:30 PM
La Liga 2
Almería ALM
Versus
Las Palmas LPA
KICKOFF : Tomorrow - 4:30 PM
Round 40 Regular Season

CONTEXT

Almería host Las Palmas at the Estadio de los Juegos Mediterráneos in a key La Liga 2 regular season encounter of the 2025/2026 campaign. The home side, perched in 2nd place, wield a decisive power advantage of 8.3 points, with their 71.12 rating eclipsing the visitors' 62.86. This structural edge aligns with Almería's superior form score of 30.33 against Las Palmas' 23.22, signaling momentum in their promotion charge. Las Palmas, holding 5th, face a stern test away, needing to bridge the gap in quality and recent output. Detailed metrics on efficiency, set pieces, and transitions remain unavailable due to limited xG data, but the hosts' higher league standing and power metrics point to control and chance creation dominance. Almería aim to capitalize on home support to extend their lead at the summit.

TL;DR

  • Structural: Almería hold a structural edge with a power score of 71.12 versus Las Palmas' 62.86, including an 8.3-point advantage.
  • Form: Almería's form score stands at 30.33, superior to Las Palmas' 23.22.
  • Squad: Almería's squad occupies 2nd in the league table, ahead of 5th-placed Las Palmas.
  • Efficiency: Efficiency data is unavailable for both teams.
  • Transition: Transition play metrics are not available in this analysis.
  • Set pieces: Set piece data unavailable due to lack of xG information and low confidence proxies.
  • xVariable: xG-related variables unavailable as add-on not enabled.
  • Market: Almería 48.2% (Δ+0.1%) | Draw 26.2% (Δ+-0%) | Las Palmas 25.6% (Δ+-0%).
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Jan 25 vs Team A
Feb 1 vs Team B
Feb 8 vs Team C
Almería J. Ferrer Sicilia
J. Ferrer Sicilia
VS
Las Palmas L. García Fernández
L. García Fernández
1.81
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.6
2.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Burgos Rank: 68 D
Mirandés Rank: 60 W
Granada Rank: 64 W
Málaga Rank: 68 W
Racing Santander Rank: 72 L
Leganés Rank: 63 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2 i
Last 6 Opponents
FC Andorra Rank: 66 L
Real Valladolid Rank: 61 W
Cádiz Rank: 56 W
Leganés Rank: 63 W
Málaga Rank: 70 L
Huesca Rank: 58 W
9
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
9 - 7 - 5
5
No sidelined player data available.

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Almería
48.17%
Draw
26.19%
Away Las Palmas
25.64%

Movement

Changes since opening
Almería
+0.07%
Draw
-0.03%
Las Palmas
-0.03%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
71.12
62.86
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Almería
Las Palmas
Power Score
71.12
62.86
League Position
2
5
Global Rank
189
210

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Almería — Opponent-weighted form score
Las Palmas — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Almería Las Palmas

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 21 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Almería ALM Home
21 matches
Las Palmas LPA Away
Match Record
9
Wins
5
7
Draws
7
5
Losses
9
Goals
30
Goals Scored
22
22
Goals Conceded
30
+8
Goal Difference
-8

Data last updated: 2026-05-13T00:08:18+00:00

STARTING XI - EXPECTED

Pitch
A. Fernández Moreno
1 A. Fernández Moreno
M. Ruiz
16 M. Ruiz
R. Ely
5 R. Ely
F. Bonini
18 F. Bonini
A. Muñoz Miguel
3 A. Muñoz Miguel
A. Luz Horta
6 A. Luz Horta
S. Dzodic
29 S. Dzodic
L. Carrilho Baptistão
12 L. Carrilho Baptistão
S. Arribas Calvo
11 S. Arribas Calvo
A. Embarba Blázquez
23 A. Embarba Blázquez
M. De la Fuente Escudero
24 M. De la Fuente Escudero
Pitch
D. Horkaš
1 D. Horkaš
E. Clemente Maza
5 E. Clemente Maza
M. Marmol Medina
3 M. Marmol Medina
J. Herzog
15 J. Herzog
V. Álvarez Rozada
17 V. Álvarez Rozada
E. Pedrola Fortuny
39 E. Pedrola Fortuny
K. Rodríguez Concepción
20 K. Rodríguez Concepción
L. Amatucci
16 L. Amatucci
T. Miyashiro
18 T. Miyashiro
M. Fuster Lázaro
14 M. Fuster Lázaro
J. Rodríguez Ruiz
10 J. Rodríguez Ruiz

General Information

Date & Time :
May 16, 2026, 04:30 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 La Liga 2, Spain · Round 40 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Estadio de los Juegos Mediterráneos
Capacity :
17400
Pitch Surface :
N/A
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair

Expected Lineup

Starting XI ▼

1
Andrés Fernández
Andrés Fernández Goalkeeper
7.01
24
Miguel de la Fuente
Miguel de la Fuente Centre Forward
6.56
11
Sergio Arribas
Sergio Arribas Attacking Midfield
7.57
12
Léo Baptistão
Léo Baptistão Right Wing
6.85
29
Stefan Dzodic
Stefan Dzodic Defensive Midfield
6.83
16
Marcos Luna
Marcos Luna Right Back
6.52
23
Adrián Embarba
Adrián Embarba Left Wing
7.14
18
Federico Bonini
Federico Bonini Left Back
6.86
3
Álex Muñoz
Álex Muñoz Left Back
6.87
5
Rodrigo Ely
Rodrigo Ely Right Back
6.81
6
André Horta
André Horta Defensive Midfield
6.66

Starting XI ▼

1
Dinko Horkas
Dinko Horkas Goalkeeper
6.83
39
Estanis Pedrola
Estanis Pedrola Midfielder
6.88
18
Taisei Miyashiro
Taisei Miyashiro Midfielder
6.83
10
Jesé
Jesé Attacker
6.93
14
Manu Fuster
Manu Fuster Attacker
7.22
16
Lorenzo Amatucci
Lorenzo Amatucci Central Midfield
6.97
5
Enrique Clemente
Enrique Clemente Left Back
6.97
20
Kirian Rodríguez
Kirian Rodríguez Central Midfield
6.8
17
Viti Rozada
Viti Rozada Right Back
6.64
3
Mika Mármol
Mika Mármol Left Back
7.01
15
Juanma Herzog
Juanma Herzog Right Back
6.64

CONCLUSION

Almería enter as the stronger outfit, leveraging their 2nd-place standing, 71.12 power score, and 30.33 form rating against Las Palmas' respective 5th position, 62.86 power, and 23.22 form. The 8.3-point power gap suggests home dominance in structure and output, ideal for a venue like the Estadio de los Juegos Mediterráneos. While advanced stats on set pieces and efficiency are absent, raw indicators favor the hosts maintaining promotion push momentum. Las Palmas must disrupt to earn reward, but Almería's advantages tilt the balance toward a home victory.

Almería vs Las Palmas preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

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