Granada vs Burgos Prediction, Preview and Stats

Spain flag 2025/2026 La Liga 2, Spain
Estadio Nuevo Los Cármenes Sat, 16 May - 4:30 PM
La Liga 2
Granada GRA
0 Winner 1
Burgos BUR
Full Time Sat, 16 May 4:30 PM
Round 40 Regular Season
|
Goal
David González - 90+1'

CONTEXT

Match is finished. Granada 0–1 Burgos. The result saw Burgos take the points. Burgos showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels. The end result aligned with the pre-match projection. Possession was 55%–45%.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Final score: Granada 0-1 Burgos. Burgos showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Team efficiency remained in line with pre-match expectations throughout the fixture.
  • xG alignment: Expected goals metrics were unavailable and thus not aligned with observed results.
  • Market alignment: The final result aligned with market projections for the stronger team.
  • xG expectations: No specific expected goals data influenced the assessment of team performances.
  • Event impact: The second half goal proved decisive in determining the match winner.
  • Red card distortion: Absence of red cards ensured no distortion to the standard match dynamics.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

D. Palencia Caballero

Spain 25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

P. Morales Moreno

4th Official

Spain

J. Méndez Mateo

1st Assistant

Spain

M. Ortuño Sierra

2nd Assistant

Spain

League averages

La Liga 2 Based on last 100 matches

Fouls / match 22.86
Yellow cards / match 4.82
Red cards / match 0.27
Penalties / match 0.33
Granada J. Rojo Martín
J. Rojo Martín
VS
Burgos L. Ramis Monfort
L. Ramis Monfort
1.32
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.58
1 i
Last 6 Opponents
Córdoba Rank: 65 L
Real Zaragoza Rank: 58 W
Almería Rank: 69 L
Albacete Rank: 67 L
Cultural Leonesa Rank: 57 W
Castellón Rank: 67 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Almería Rank: 71 D
Real Sociedad II Rank: 59 D
Deportivo La Coruña Rank: 68 D
Castellón Rank: 67 L
Sporting Gijón Rank: 64 W
Albacete Rank: 67 W
2
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
2 - 3 - 0
0

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Granada
25.94%
Draw
30.33%
Away Burgos
43.73%

Movement

Changes since opening
Granada
+25.75%
Draw
+26.63%
Burgos
-52.38%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
63.33
67.83
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Granada
Burgos
Power Score
63.33
67.83
League Position
14
7
Global Rank
376
254

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Granada — Opponent-weighted form score
Burgos — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Granada Burgos

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Granada

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Burgos

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Granada ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Burgos
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
16.91
22.11
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
22.11
16.91
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Granada -0.52 Efficiency Index
vs
Burgos +0.52 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Granada
Burgos
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Granada ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Burgos
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Granada Burgos
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Granada Burgos
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Granada
Burgos
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Granada
vs
Burgos
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Granada Burgos
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Granada 0.31
Burgos 0.21
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Granada Burgos
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Granada 0.03
Burgos 0.00
Granada
Burgos
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • BUR had peak pressure around 78'.
  • BUR started the game with stronger pressure.
GRA Pressure BUR Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: BUR reached the top pressure at 78' (60.01).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 5 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Granada GRA Home
5 matches
Burgos BUR Away
Match Record
2
Wins
0
3
Draws
3
0
Losses
2
Goals
7
Goals Scored
4
4
Goals Conceded
7
+3
Goal Difference
-3

Data last updated: 2026-05-18T08:57:48+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-3-3
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
A. Astralaga Aranguren
Spain
13 A. Astralaga Aranguren
P. Casadesús Castro
Substitution
Spain
2 P. Casadesús Castro
O. Naasei Oppong
Substitution
Ghana
28 O. Naasei Oppong
J. Flores
Spain
36 J. Flores
D. Hormigo Iturralde
Spain
3 D. Hormigo Iturralde
S. Ruiz Alonso
Spain
20 (C) S. Ruiz Alonso
R. Alcaraz Jiménez
Substitution
Spain
4 R. Alcaraz Jiménez
I. González Muñoz
Spain
41 I. González Muñoz
P. Saenz Ezquerra
Spain
21 P. Saenz Ezquerra
G. Petit Abad
Substitution
Uruguay
9 G. Petit Abad
J. Arnáiz Díaz
Spain
11 J. Arnáiz Díaz
Pitch
A. Cantero Armendáriz
Spain
13 A. Cantero Armendáriz
F. Miguel
France
12 F. Miguel
G. Sierra Pérez
Spain
8 G. Sierra Pérez
S. González Martínez
Spain
6 S. González Martínez
A. Lizancos Saldaña
Spain
2 A. Lizancos Saldaña
I. Ruiz
Spain
23 I. Ruiz
M. Atienza Villa
Substitution
Spain
5 (C) M. Atienza Villa
I. Córdoba Kerejeta
Spain
21 I. Córdoba Kerejeta
F. Sánchez Rodríguez
Substitution
Spain
16 F. Sánchez Rodríguez
V. Mollejo Carpintero
Substitution
Spain
11 V. Mollejo Carpintero
F. Niño Rodriguez
Substitution
Spain
9 F. Niño Rodriguez

General Information

Date & Time :
May 16, 2026, 04:30 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 La Liga 2, Spain · Round 40 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Estadio Nuevo Los Cármenes
Capacity :
19189
Attendance :
9647
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Pablo Morales Moreno
Joan Méndez Mateo
Miguel Ortuño Sierra
Daniel Palencia Caballero

Statistics

Possession
GRA
53%
BUR
47%

Top Statistics

0 Goals 1
0 Big Chances Created 1
5 Shots 5
26 Dangerous attacks 39
55 Possession 45
3 Corners 5
14 Free kicks 17
5 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

13 Goal Kicks 7
5 Substitutions 5
79 Ball Safe 70
2 Injuries 0
6 Goal Attempts 7
44 Successful Dribbles Percentage 48
1 Hit Woodwork 0
18 Dribble Attempts 21
8 Successful Dribbles 10
16 Throwins 19

Attacking

89 Attacks 90
0 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

5 Key Passes 3
336 Successful Passes 263
404 Passes 330
83 Successful Passes Percentage 80
30 Successful Long Passes 24
63 Long Passes 56
48 Successful Long Passes Percentage 43

Defensive

4 Interceptions 5
1 Saves 0
21 Tackles 16
56 Duels Won 61

Build-up

2 Accurate Crosses 1
13 Total Crosses 10

Discipline

2 Offsides 3
17 Fouls 14

Lineup

Referee : Daniel Palencia Caballero

Starting XI ▼

13
Ander Astralaga
Ander Astralaga Goalkeeper
5.99
2
Pau Casadesús
Pau Casadesús Defender
6.4
22
Baïla Diallo
Baïla Diallo
Defender74'
6.39
3
Diego Hormigo
Diego Hormigo Defender
6.44
28
Oscar Naasei Oppong
Oscar Naasei Oppong Defender
6.46
17
Bambo Diaby
Bambo Diaby
Defender46'
6.27
36
Juanjo Flores
Juanjo Flores Defender
7
4
Rubén Alcaraz
Rubén Alcaraz Midfielder
6.75
14
Manu Trigueros
Manu Trigueros
Midfielder78'
6.42
20
Sergio Ruiz
Sergio Ruiz (C) Midfielder
6.89
41
Izan González
Izan González Midfielder
7.15
9
Gonzalo Petit
Gonzalo Petit Attacker
6.51
7
Álex Sola
Álex Sola
Attacker63'
6.63
11
José Manuel Arnáiz
José Manuel Arnáiz Attacker
6.84
21
Pablo Sáenz
Pablo Sáenz Attacker
6.59
Referee : Daniel Palencia Caballero

Starting XI ▼

13
Ander Cantero
Ander Cantero Goalkeeper
6.53
2
Álex Lizancos
Álex Lizancos Defender
6.56
6
Sergio González
Sergio González Defender
7.11
8
Grego Sierra
Grego Sierra Defender
7.91
12
Florian Miguel
Florian Miguel Defender
6.75
5
Miguel Atienza
Miguel Atienza (C) Midfielder
6.8
14
David González
David González
Midfielder63'
7.02
11
Víctor Mollejo
Víctor Mollejo Midfielder
6.61
7
Mateo Mejía
Mateo Mejía
Attacker77'
6.56
16
Curro Sánchez
Curro Sánchez Midfielder
6.49
10
Kévin Appin
Kévin Appin
Midfielder63'
7.29
21
Iñigo Córdoba
Iñigo Córdoba Midfielder
6.78
23
Iván Morante
Iván Morante Midfielder
6.86
9
Fer Niño
Fer Niño Attacker
6.85
33
Marcelo Expósito
Marcelo Expósito
Midfielder90+3'

Events

2ND-HALF
90+3'
Event
Marcelo Expósito → Fer Niño
10th Substitution
90+2'
Event
Curro Sánchez
7th Yellowcard
90+1'
Event
David González
Left foot shot / 1st Goal
Event
Manu Trigueros → Rubén Alcaraz
9th Substitution
78'
77'
Event
Mateo Mejía → Víctor Mollejo
8th Substitution
Event
Baïla Diallo → Pau Casadesús
7th Substitution
74'
Event
Rubén Alcaraz
Foul / 6th Yellowcard
69'
Event
Álex Sola
Foul / 5th Yellowcard
67'
Event
Álex Sola → Gonzalo Petit
5th Substitution
63'
Event
6th Substitution
63'
63'
Event
David González → Miguel Atienza
3rd Substitution
63'
Event
4th Substitution
63'
Event
Kévin Appin → Curro Sánchez
2nd Substitution
Event
Bambo Diaby
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
61'
Event
Sergio Ruiz
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
59'
Event
Bambo Diaby → Oscar Naasei Oppong
1st Substitution
46'
1ST-HALF
34'
Event
Miguel Atienza
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
Event
Pau Casadesús
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
12'

Match Commentary

90
Attempt Attempt
Bambo Diaby's right-footed shot is blocked.
90
Attempt Attempt
David Gonzalez Ballesteros takes a left-footed shot and scores.
90
Update Update
Marcelo Exposito Jimenez is on, and Fernando Nino is off.
90
Attempt Attempt
Sergio Ruiz Alonso takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
82
Attempt Attempt
Alex Sola takes a right-footed shot but misses.
80
Attempt Attempt
Alex Sola takes a right-footed shot but misses.
78
Update Update
Manuel Trigueros Munoz is on, and Ruben Alcaraz is off.
77
Update Update
Mateo Mejia comes on for Victor Mollejo Carpintero.
76
Attempt Attempt
Victor Mollejo Carpintero takes a left-footed shot but misses.
74
Update Update
Baila Diallo replaces Pau Casadesus Castro.
71
Attempt Attempt
Pablo Manuel Galdames takes a right-footed shot but misses.
69
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Ruben Alcaraz receives a yellow card.
63
Substitution Substitution
Substitution: Alex Sola comes on for Gonzalo Petit.
63
Update Update
Pablo Manuel Galdames is on, and Iago Cordoba Kerejeta is off.
63
Update Update
David Gonzalez Ballesteros is on, and Miguel Atienza is off.
63
Substitution Substitution
Substitution: Alex Sola comes on for Gonzalo Petit.
63
Update Update
Sergio Rodelas comes on for Pablo Saenz.
61
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Bambo Diaby receives a yellow card.
59
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Sergio Ruiz Alonso receives a yellow card.
58
Attempt Attempt
Alex Lizancos takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
46
Update Update
Bambo Diaby replaces Oscar Naasei Oppong.
45
Attempt Attempt
Victor Mollejo Carpintero takes a left-footed shot, but it misses the target.
42
Attempt Attempt
Pablo Saenz takes a left-footed shot but misses.
37
Attempt Attempt
Fernando Nino takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
27
Attempt Attempt
Ruben Alcaraz takes a right-footed shot but misses.
18
Attempt Attempt
Ruben Alcaraz takes a left-footed shot but misses.
18
Attempt Attempt
Pablo Saenz's left-footed shot is blocked.
13
Attempt Attempt
Ivan Morante Ruiz takes a right-footed shot but misses.
12
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Pau Casadesus Castro receives a yellow card.
11
Attempt Attempt
Victor Mollejo Carpintero takes a left-footed shot but misses.

CONCLUSION

Final score detail: Granada 0-1 Burgos. Structural assessment: Burgos exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

Granada vs Burgos preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

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