Bari 1908 vs Südtirol Prediction, Preview and Stats

Italy flag 2025/2026 Serie B, Italy
Stadio Comunale San Nicola Fri, 15 May - 6:00 PM
Serie B
Bari 1908 BAR
0 – 0
Südtirol SUD
Full Time Fri, 15 May 6:00 PM
Final Leg 1 of 2

CONTEXT

Match is finished. Bari 1908 0–0 Südtirol. The match ended in a draw. Südtirol showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels. The end result diverged from the pre-match projection. Possession was 49%–51%.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Final score: Bari 1908 0-0 Südtirol. Südtirol showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Team efficiency remained in line with pre-match patterns.
  • xG alignment: Expected goals figures were unavailable for alignment checks.
  • Market alignment: The draw outcome did not align with pre-match expectations.
  • xG expectations: No expected goals data was recorded for either side.
  • Event impact: No major events altered the flow of the goalless match.
  • Red card distortion: No red cards occurred so no distortion affected the result.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

Andrea Rapuano

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

K. Bahri

1st Assistant

Italy

M. Rossi

2nd Assistant

Italy

K. Bonacina

4th Official

Italy

League averages

Serie B Based on last 100 matches

Fouls / match 26.62
Yellow cards / match 3.9
Red cards / match 0.29
Penalties / match 0.28
Bari 1908 M. Longo
M. Longo
VS
Südtirol F. Castori
F. Castori
1
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.12
1.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Catanzaro Rank: 61 W
Virtus Entella Rank: 49 W
Avellino Rank: 52 L
Venezia Rank: 71 L
Monza Rank: 66 L
Modena Rank: 56 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Juve Stabia Rank: 57 D
Sampdoria Rank: 53 L
Mantova Rank: 52 L
Spezia Rank: 52 L
Modena Rank: 56 D
Cesena Rank: 52 D
3
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
3 - 3 - 4
4

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Bari 1908
29.74%
Draw
30.97%
Away Südtirol
39.29%

Movement

Changes since opening
Bari 1908
+25.68%
Draw
-60.53%
Südtirol
+34.85%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
51.37
51.47
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Bari 1908
Südtirol
Power Score
51.37
51.47
League Position
17
16
Global Rank
751
749

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Bari 1908 — Opponent-weighted form score
Südtirol — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Bari 1908 Südtirol

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Bari 1908

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Südtirol

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —
Possession Efficiency data not available for this match.

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Bari 1908 ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Südtirol
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Bari 1908 Südtirol
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Bari 1908 Südtirol
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Bari 1908
Südtirol
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Bari 1908
vs
Südtirol
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Bari 1908 Südtirol
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Bari 1908 0.00
Südtirol 0.00
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Bari 1908 Südtirol
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Bari 1908 0.00
Südtirol 0.00
Bari 1908
Südtirol
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • BAR had peak pressure around 16'.
  • SUD started the game with stronger pressure.
  • Both teams' pressure dropped after the 30th minute.
BAR Pressure SUD Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: BAR reached the top pressure at 16' (73.05).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 10 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Bari 1908 BAR Home
10 matches
Südtirol SUD Away
Match Record
3
Wins
4
3
Draws
3
4
Losses
3
Goals
7
Goals Scored
8
8
Goals Conceded
7
-1
Goal Difference
+1

Data last updated: 2026-05-15T17:45:23+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-3-1-2
Match Formation 3-5-2
Pitch
M. Cerofolini
Italy
31 M. Cerofolini
V. Mantovani
Italy
13 V. Mantovani
C. Odenthal
Netherlands
26 C. Odenthal
D. Nikolaou
Greece
43 D. Nikolaou
E. Dorval
France
93 E. Dorval
T. Pontes Esteves
Substitution
Portugal
19 T. Pontes Esteves
G. Maggiore
Substitution
Italy
18 G. Maggiore
K. Piscopo
Italy
28 K. Piscopo
R. Pagano
Substitution
Italy
8 R. Pagano
G. Moncini
Substitution
Italy
11 G. Moncini
E. Rao
Substitution
Italy
17 E. Rao
Pitch
M. Adamonis
Lithuania
31 M. Adamonis
F. Veseli
Albania
34 F. Veseli
N. Pietrangeli
Italy
19 N. Pietrangeli
H. El Kaouakibi
Morocco
94 H. El Kaouakibi
S. Davì
Substitution
Italy
24 S. Davì
D. Casiraghi
Italy
17 D. Casiraghi
S. Tronchin
Substitution
Italy
18 S. Tronchin
M. Frigerio
Substitution
Italy
26 M. Frigerio
S. Molina
Italy
79 S. Molina
E. Pecorino
Substitution
Italy
9 E. Pecorino
S. Merkaj
Substitution
Albania
33 S. Merkaj

General Information

Date & Time :
May 15, 2026, 06:00 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Serie B, Italy · Final · Leg 1 of 2
Stadium :
Stadio Comunale San Nicola
Capacity :
58300
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Andrea Rapuano
Khaled Bahri
Marcello Rossi
Kevin Bonacina

Statistics

Possession
BAR
47%
SUD
53%

Top Statistics

1 Big Chances Created 1
7 Shots 10
29 Dangerous attacks 79
48 Possession 52
4 Corners 1
17 Free kicks 17
4 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

5 Substitutions 5
0 Hit Woodwork 1
16 Dribble Attempts 17
8 Successful Dribbles 6
19 Throwins 42
86 Ball Safe 72
7 Goal Attempts 11
50 Successful Dribbles Percentage 35
11 Goal Kicks 7
1 Injuries 2

Attacking

1 Big Chances Missed 1
85 Attacks 104

Possession

179 Successful Passes 188
15 Successful Long Passes 19
279 Passes 297
56 Long Passes 71
27 Successful Long Passes Percentage 27
8 Key Passes 11
64 Successful Passes Percentage 63

Defensive

4 Saves 3
6 Interceptions 7
17 Tackles 14
58 Duels Won 66

Build-up

5 Accurate Crosses 6
11 Total Crosses 18

Discipline

0 Offsides 1
17 Fouls 17

Lineup

Referee : Andrea Rapuano

Starting XI ▼

31
Michele Cerofolini
Michele Cerofolini Goalkeeper
7.06
13
Valerio Mantovani
Valerio Mantovani Defender
6.57
26
Cas Odenthal
Cas Odenthal Defender
6.79
43
Dimitrios Nikolaou
Dimitrios Nikolaou Defender
6.62
93
Mehdi Dorval
Mehdi Dorval Defender
6.81
8
Riccardo Pagano
Riccardo Pagano Midfielder
6.63
80
Federico Artioli
Federico Artioli
Midfielder62'
7.28
18
Giulio Maggiore
Giulio Maggiore Midfielder
6.83
49
Giacomo De Pieri
Giacomo De Pieri
Midfielder76'
6.62
19
Tomás Esteves
Tomás Esteves Midfielder
6.57
27
Matthias Braunöder
Matthias Braunöder
Midfielder62'
6.79
28
Kevin Piscopo
Kevin Piscopo Midfielder
6.89
11
Gabriele Moncini
Gabriele Moncini Attacker
6.75
90
Marvin Cuni
Marvin Cuni
Attacker76'
6.66
17
Emanuele Rao
Emanuele Rao Attacker
6.84
10
Nicola Bellomo
Nicola Bellomo
Midfielder87'
6.59
Referee : Andrea Rapuano

Starting XI ▼

31
Marius Adamonis
Marius Adamonis Goalkeeper
6.71
19
Nicola Pietrangeli
Nicola Pietrangeli Defender
6.59
34
Frédéric Veseli
Frédéric Veseli Defender
6.55
94
Hamza El Kaouakibi
Hamza El Kaouakibi Defender
6.9
17
Daniele Casiraghi
Daniele Casiraghi Midfielder
7.04
18
Simone Tronchin
Simone Tronchin Midfielder
6.76
21
Fabian Tait
Fabian Tait
Midfielder86'
6.63
24
Simone Davi
Simone Davi Midfielder
6.63
7
Karim Zedadka
Karim Zedadka
Midfielder86'
6.65
26
Marco Frigerio
Marco Frigerio Midfielder
6.56
6
Jacopo Martini
Jacopo Martini
Midfielder65'
6.66
79
Salvatore Molina
Salvatore Molina Midfielder
6.94
9
Emanuele Pecorino
Emanuele Pecorino Attacker
6.95
89
Domen Črnigoj
Domen Črnigoj
Midfielder87'
6.59
33
Silvio Merkaj
Silvio Merkaj Attacker
6.65
90
Raphael Odogwu
Raphael Odogwu
Attacker79'
6.77

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Nicola Bellomo → Emanuele Rao
9th Substitution
87'
Event
Nicola Bellomo
Argument / 6th Yellowcard
87'
87'
Event
Domen Črnigoj → Emanuele Pecorino
10th Substitution
86'
Event
Karim Zedadka → Simone Davi
8th Substitution
86'
Event
Fabian Tait → Simone Tronchin
7th Substitution
79'
Event
Raphael Odogwu → Silvio Merkaj
6th Substitution
Event
Giacomo De Pieri → Giulio Maggiore
5th Substitution
76'
Event
Marvin Cuni → Gabriele Moncini
4th Substitution
76'
Event
Kevin Piscopo
Foul / 5th Yellowcard
72'
65'
Event
Jacopo Martini → Marco Frigerio
3rd Substitution
Event
Federico Artioli → Riccardo Pagano
1st Substitution
62'
Event
Matthias Braunöder → Tomás Esteves
2nd Substitution
62'
60'
Event
Simone Tronchin
Time wasting / 4th Yellowcard
Event
Michele Cerofolini
Time wasting / 3rd Yellowcard
57'
54'
Event
Silvio Merkaj
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
1ST-HALF
Event
Gabriele Moncini
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
45+2'

Match Commentary

90
Attempt Attempt
Raphael Odogwu takes a right-footed shot but misses.
87
Update Update
Domen Crnigoj comes on for Emanuele Pecorino.
87
Substitution Substitution
Nicola Bellomo is substituted off for Emanuele Rao.
86
Update Update
Karim Zedadka comes on for Simone Davi.
86
Update Update
Fabian Tait comes on for Simone Tronchin.
81
Attempt Attempt
Marvin Cuni takes a shot with his right foot, but it's saved.
79
Update Update
Raphael Odogwu replaces Silvio Merkaj.
76
Update Update
Giacomo De Pieri comes on for Giulio Maggiore.
76
Update Update
Marvin Cuni is on, and Gabriele Moncini is off.
72
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Kevin Piscopo receives a yellow card.
70
Attempt Attempt
Gabriele Moncini attempts a header but misses the shot.
70
Attempt Attempt
Gabriele Moncini attempts a header but misses the shot.
68
Attempt Attempt
Emanuele Pecorino takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
65
Update Update
Jacopo Martini comes on for Marco Frigerio.
62
Update Update
Federico Artioli comes on for Riccardo Pagano.
62
Update Update
Matthias Braunoder comes on for Tomas Esteves.
59
Attempt Attempt
Daniele Casiraghi's left-footed shot is blocked.
56
Attempt Attempt
Daniele Casiraghi takes a shot with his right foot, but it's saved.
54
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Silvio Merkaj receives a yellow card.
52
Attempt Attempt
Marco Frigerio attempts a header but misses the shot.
48
Attempt Attempt
Emanuele Rao takes a right-footed shot but misses.
47
Attempt Attempt
Simone Davi takes a left-footed shot but misses.
42
Attempt Attempt
Riccardo Pagano takes a right-footed shot but misses.
41
Attempt Attempt
Daniele Casiraghi takes a right-footed shot but misses.
38
Attempt Attempt
Salvatore Molina takes a left-footed shot but misses.
32
Attempt Attempt
Silvio Merkaj's right-footed shot is blocked.
30
Attempt Attempt
Gabriele Moncini takes a right-footed shot but misses.
26
Attempt Attempt
Marco Frigerio attempts a header but misses the shot.
21
Attempt Attempt
Marco Frigerio takes a right-footed shot but misses.
15
Attempt Attempt
Emanuele Rao takes a right-footed shot but misses.
14
Attempt Attempt
Giulio Maggiore's left-footed shot is saved.
10
Attempt Attempt
Kevin Piscopo takes a right-footed shot but misses.
7
Attempt Attempt
Salvatore Molina takes a left-footed shot but misses.
4
Attempt Attempt
Emanuele Pecorino takes a left-footed shot but misses.
3
Attempt Attempt
Hamza El Kaouakibi takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.

CONCLUSION

Final score detail: Bari 1908 0-0 Südtirol. Structural assessment: Südtirol exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.

Bari 1908 vs Südtirol preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

About BestPreviews Methodology & FAQ More Match Reports

How We Build This Analysis

BestPreviews combines tactical context, lineup quality, xG trends, and form data across competitions. Read the full methodology and FAQ.

Related Football Previews

Explore League Previews

Serie B, Italy View all league clusters View methodology and FAQ

Author

Daniels Zorge

Daniels Zorge covers football fixtures with a focus on tactical matchups, playing styles, and key details that shape each game.