Vukovar vs Varaždin Preview, Predictions, Analysis & Tips

2025/2026 1. HNL, Croatia

Stadion Gradski vrt Today - 4:00 PM

1. HNL

Vukovar Vukovar

Varaždin Varaždin

Full Time Today 4:00 PM

Round 35 Regular Season

Stipe Juric - 90+3'

David Puclin - 45+1'

CONTEXT

Vukovar faced Varaždin in a tightly fought Croatian league match, ultimately falling 0-2 at home. The visitors opened the scoring in the first half to lead 0-1 at halftime, then doubled their advantage after the break to claim a deserved victory. Possession was perfectly even at 50% apiece, yet Varaždin's clinical finishing made the difference against a resilient Vukovar defense. No red cards disrupted play, allowing the stronger team, Varaždin, to impose their quality throughout. This result showcased a significant structural deviation of 54.2% in Varaždin's favor, highlighting their edge beyond the balanced stats. Efficiency stayed in line with norms, and the absence of xG data leaves chance creation open to interpretation, but the scoreboard tells a clear story of Varaždin's superiority.

TL;DR

Structural deviation: Varaždin's 0-2 win showed a significant 54.2% structural deviation in their favor.
Efficiency shift: Team efficiencies remained in line with expectations.
xG alignment: No xG data available to assess alignment with outcome.
Market alignment: Final result aligned fully with pre-match market views.
xG expectations: xG expectations could not be evaluated due to missing data.
Event impact: No second-half adjustments or key events altered the game's flow.
Red card distortion: Zero red cards ensured no distortion from player dismissals.

No standings statistics available.

No head-to-head records found.

0.5+ goals: 85%

1.5+ goals: 70%

2.5+ goals: 50%

3.5+ goals: 25%

Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15

Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%

Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

Team	xPts
Home	1.8
Away	1.2

Match referee

I. Vukančić

Croatia 25 matches in sample

Avg. cards

0.12

Fouls / match 0.52

Yellow cards / match 0.12

Red cards / match 0

Penalties / match 0

T. Stipić

N. Šafarić

0.81

Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)

1.38

Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)

Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)

1 - 0 - 2

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)

Vukovar

27.14%

Draw

27.11%

Varaždin

45.75%

Movement

Changes since opening

Vukovar

+26.95%

Draw

+22.02%

Varaždin

-48.97%

Team Power Ranking

48.6

65.53

0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)

Metric

Vukovar

Varaždin

Power Score

48.6

65.53

League Position

Global Rank

610

318

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

Vukovar — Opponent-weighted form score

Varaždin — Opponent-weighted form score

Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Vukovar Varaždin

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

Vukovar

Left / Center / Right —

Opposition half density —

vs season average —

Varaždin

Left / Center / Right —

Opposition half density —

vs season average —

Possession Efficiency data not available for this match.

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Vukovar ⚠ Proxy

⚠ Proxy Varaždin

Created Set-piece attacking threat

Vukovar Varaždin

Set-piece xG Share

—

Goals per Match

0.00 0.00

vs Expected (xG)

— vs —

Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure

Vukovar Varaždin

Set-piece xGA Share

—

Conceded per Match

0.00 0.00

vs Expected (xGA)

— vs —

xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.

Vukovar

Varaždin

xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG

vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

Vukovar

Varaždin

Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence

Vukovar Varaždin

Goals per Match ↑ better

—

Shots per Match ↑ better

—

Dangerous Attacks ↑ better

—

Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure

Vukovar Varaždin

Goals Conceded ↓ better

—

Shots Conceded ↓ better

—

Dangerous Attacks Conceded ↓ better

—

Vukovar

Varaždin

Window = 15s post-possession change

Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

Vukovar had peak pressure around 43'.
Vukovar started the game with stronger pressure.

Vukovar Pressure Varaždin Pressure

⚡

Pressure Index: Vukovar reached the top pressure at 43' (87.22).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 3 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Vukovar Vukovar Home

3 matches

Varaždin Varaždin Away

Match Record

Wins

Draws

Losses

Goals

Goals Scored

Goals Conceded

-1

Goal Difference

Data last updated: 2026-05-15T15:45:17+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1

42 A. Đaković

8 A. Bosec

5 N. Vlasenko

13 V. Čaić

20 K. Cabrajic

77 E. Shabani

35 J. Gurlica

27 ?. Butić

10 R. Gonzales

28 L. Banovec

21 J. Puljić

1 O. Zelenika

25 A. Boršić

16 N. Tepšić

2 S. Lesjak

23 F. Maglica

8 T. Duvnjak

6 D. Puclin

38 Iuri Tavares

22 L. Mamić

7 M. Vuk

10 A. Latković

General Information

Date & Time :

May 15, 2026, 04:00 PM

Competition :

2025/2026 1. HNL, Croatia · Round 35 · Regular Season

Stadium :

Stadion Gradski vrt

Capacity :

1000

Pitch Surface :

Grass

Weather :

☀️ 12°C, Fair

Referees :

Ivan Vukančić

Statistics

Possession

Vukovar

49%

Varaždin

51%

Top Statistics

0 Goals 2

1 Big Chances Created 3

10 Shots 13

88 Dangerous attacks 73

50 Possession 50

5 Corners 3

18 Free kicks 13

1 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

7 Goal Kicks 6

7 Successful Dribbles 8

27 Throwins 23

44 Successful Dribbles Percentage 67

16 Dribble Attempts 12

2 Substitutions 4

0 Assists 1

Attacking

154 Attacks 123

1 Big Chances Missed 2

Possession

36 Long Passes 65

408 Passes 412

7 Key Passes 12

339 Successful Passes 337

10 Successful Long Passes 32

28 Successful Long Passes Percentage 49

83 Successful Passes Percentage 82

Defensive

8 Tackles 16

4 Saves 2

7 Interceptions 7

41 Duels Won 45

Build-up

17 Total Crosses 13

4 Accurate Crosses 1

Discipline

13 Fouls 18

1 Offsides 3

Lineup

Referee : Ivan Vukančić

Manager ▼

T. Stipić Coach

Starting XI ▼

Antonio Đaković Goalkeeper

7.41

Nikita Vlasenko Defender

6.65

Antonio Bosec Defender

6.29

Vito Caic Defender

6.6

Kristijan Cabrajic Defender

6.5

Robin González Midfielder

6.88

Simun Butic Midfielder

6.57

Lovro Banovec Midfielder

6.77

—

Lovro Banovec

83'

Jakov Gurlica Midfielder

6.49

Niko Pajvančić

Attacker83'

Eniss Shabani Midfielder

6.8

Jakov Puljic Attacker

7.05

Substitutes ▼

Niko Pajvančić

Attacker83'

—

Lovro Banovec

83'

Bench ▼

Marino Bulat Goalkeeper

6.77

Halid Šabanović Defender

6.54

Kerim Çalhanoğlu Defender

6.73

Mario Tadic Defender

6.67

Jakov Biljan Midfielder

6.54

Danijel Vinković Midfielder

Josip Špoljarić Midfielder

6.43

Luka Klanac Attacker

6.48

Pocholo Bugas Attacker

6.48

Referee : Ivan Vukančić