Real Madrid vs Real Oviedo Prediction, Preview and Stats

Spain flag 2025/2026 La Liga, Spain
Estadio Santiago Bernabéu Thu, 14 May - 7:30 PM
La Liga
Real Madrid RMA
2 Winner 0
Real Oviedo OVI
Full Time Thu, 14 May 7:30 PM
Round 36 Regular Season
Jude Bellingham - 80'
Gonzalo García - 44'
Goal
|

CONTEXT

Real Madrid defeated Real Oviedo 2-0 in their Copa del Rey encounter, maintaining control from start to finish. The home team opened the scoring in the first half to lead 1-0 at halftime, then added a second goal after the break to seal the victory. With 65% possession, Madrid dominated proceedings, while Oviedo managed only 35% and created few clear chances. No red cards were issued, ensuring an uninterrupted flow, and the stronger team prevailed as expected. The match showed a significant structural deviation of 25.2% in Real Madrid's favor, indicating performance variance from typical patterns. Efficiency remained in line with norms, reflecting a composed outing without major disruptions. This result underscores Madrid's superiority in a low-scoring affair.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Real Madrid's 2-0 win exhibited a significant 25.2% structural deviation.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift stayed in line with expectations.
  • xG alignment: xG data unavailable, so alignment undetermined.
  • Market alignment: Outcome aligned with pre-match market expectations.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations unassessable due to lack of data.
  • Event impact: No second-half adjustments or events significantly impacted the match.
  • Red card distortion: No red cards occurred, avoiding any distortion.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

R. De Burgos Bengoetxea

Spain 25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

I. De Francisco Grijalba

1st Assistant

Spain

A. Pérez de Mendiola González de Durana

2nd Assistant

Spain

G. Conejero Sánchez

4th Official

Spain

League averages

La Liga Based on last 100 matches

Fouls / match 22.93
Yellow cards / match 4.23
Red cards / match 0.23
Penalties / match 0.3
Real Madrid Á. Arbeloa Coca
Á. Arbeloa Coca
VS
Real Oviedo J. Almada Álves
J. Almada Álves
2
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
0.91
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
FC Barcelona Rank: 97 L
Espanyol Rank: 73 W
Real Betis Rank: 81 D
Deportivo Alavés Rank: 76 W
Girona Rank: 75 D
Mallorca Rank: 76 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Getafe Rank: 76 D
Real Betis Rank: 82 L
Elche Rank: 74 L
Villarreal Rank: 82 D
Celta de Vigo Rank: 80 W
Sevilla Rank: 75 W
1
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
1 - 0 - 0
0

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Real Madrid
74.75%
Draw
15.32%
Away Real Oviedo
9.93%

Movement

Changes since opening
Real Madrid
-23.11%
Draw
+13.4%
Real Oviedo
+9.71%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
92.52
59.93
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Real Madrid
Real Oviedo
Power Score
92.52
59.93
League Position
2
20
Global Rank
6
192

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Real Madrid — Opponent-weighted form score
Real Oviedo — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Real Madrid Real Oviedo

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Real Madrid

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Real Oviedo

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Real Madrid ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Real Oviedo
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
33.46
30.00
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
30.00
33.46
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Real Madrid +0.31 Efficiency Index
vs
Real Oviedo -0.31 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Real Madrid
Real Oviedo
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Real Madrid ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Real Oviedo
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Real Madrid Real Oviedo
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Real Madrid Real Oviedo
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Real Madrid
Real Oviedo
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Real Madrid
vs
Real Oviedo
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Real Madrid Real Oviedo
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Real Madrid 0.35
Real Oviedo 0.30
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Real Madrid Real Oviedo
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Real Madrid 0.00
Real Oviedo 0.04
Real Madrid
Real Oviedo
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • RMA had peak pressure around 46'.
  • OVI started the game with stronger pressure.
RMA Pressure OVI Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: RMA reached the top pressure at 46' (87.93).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 1 match between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Real Madrid RMA Home
1 matches
Real Oviedo OVI Away
Match Record
1
Wins
0
0
Draws
0
0
Losses
1
Goals
3
Goals Scored
0
0
Goals Conceded
3
+3
Goal Difference
-3

Data last updated: 2026-05-15T00:02:04+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-4-2
Match Formation 4-3-3
Pitch
T. Courtois
Belgium
1 T. Courtois
T. Alexander-Arnold
Substitution
England
12 T. Alexander-Arnold
R. Asencio del Rosario
Spain
17 R. Asencio del Rosario
D. Olatukunbo Alaba
Austria
4 D. Olatukunbo Alaba
A. Carreras
Spain
18 A. Carreras
F. Mastantuono
Substitution
Argentina
30 F. Mastantuono
E. Camavinga
France
6 E. Camavinga
A. Tchouaméni
Substitution
France
14 A. Tchouaméni
B. Abdelkader Diaz
Substitution
Spain
21 B. Abdelkader Diaz
G. García Torres
Substitution
Spain
16 G. García Torres
V. Júnior
Brazil
7 V. Júnior
Pitch
A. Escandell Banacloche
Spain
13 A. Escandell Banacloche
A. Alhassane Bonkan
Niger
3 A. Alhassane Bonkan
D. Costas Cordal
Spain
4 D. Costas Cordal
E. Bailly
Ivory Coast
2 E. Bailly
I. Vidal Miralles
Substitution
Spain
22 I. Vidal Miralles
A. Reina Campos
Spain
5 A. Reina Campos
S. Colombatto
Argentina
11 S. Colombatto
N. Fonseca
Substitution
Italy
23 N. Fonseca
T. Fernández
Substitution
Argentina
15 T. Fernández
F. Viñas Barboza
Uruguay
9 F. Viñas Barboza
I. Chaira
Substitution
Morocco
7 I. Chaira

General Information

Date & Time :
May 14, 2026, 07:30 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 La Liga, Spain · Round 36 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Estadio Santiago Bernabéu
Capacity :
84744
Attendance :
62774
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Ricardo De Burgos Bengoetxea
Iker De Francisco Grijalba
Asier Pérez de Mendiola González de Durana
Guillermo Conejero Sánchez

Statistics

Possession
RMA
61%
OVI
39%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 0
2 Big Chances Created 2
5 Shots 3
55 Dangerous attacks 30
65 Possession 35
4 Corners 5
14 Free kicks 7

Match Overview

55 Ball Safe 62
15 Throwins 12
4 Successful Headers 6
15 Dribble Attempts 11
9 Successful Dribbles 9
60 Successful Dribbles Percentage 82
16 Goal Attempts 5
5 Goal Kicks 10
2 Assists 0
5 Substitutions 4
0 Injuries 1

Attacking

119 Attacks 49
1 Big Chances Missed 2

Possession

616 Passes 326
93 Successful Passes Percentage 84
570 Successful Passes 275
32 Long Passes 43
22 Successful Long Passes 24
69 Successful Long Passes Percentage 56
16 Key Passes 7

Defensive

1 Saves 5
9 Tackles 12
5 Interceptions 5
36 Duels Won 34

Build-up

12 Total Crosses 15
3 Accurate Crosses 3

Discipline

2 Offsides 1
7 Fouls 14

Lineup

Referee : Ricardo De Burgos Bengoetxea

Starting XI ▼

1
Thibaut Courtois
Thibaut Courtois Goalkeeper
4
David Alaba
David Alaba Defender
12
Trent Alexander-Arnold
Trent Alexander-Arnold Defender
2
Daniel Carvajal
Daniel Carvajal
Defender64'
17
Raúl Asencio
Raúl Asencio Defender
18
Álvaro Carreras
Álvaro Carreras Defender
6
Eduardo Camavinga
Eduardo Camavinga Midfielder
14
Aurélien Tchouaméni
Aurélien Tchouaméni Midfielder
5
Jude Bellingham
Jude Bellingham
Midfielder64'
21
Brahim Díaz
Brahim Díaz Midfielder
38
César Palacios
César Palacios
Midfielder77'
30
Franco Mastantuono
Franco Mastantuono Midfielder
42
Daniel Yáñez
Daniel Yáñez
Attacker77'
7
Vinicius Junior
Vinicius Junior Attacker
16
Gonzalo García
Gonzalo García Attacker
10
Kylian Mbappé
Kylian Mbappé
Attacker69'
Referee : Ricardo De Burgos Bengoetxea

Starting XI ▼

13
Aarón Escandell
Aarón Escandell Goalkeeper
2
Eric Bailly
Eric Bailly Defender
3
Rahim Alhassane
Rahim Alhassane Defender
4
David Costas
David Costas Defender
22
Nacho Vidal
Nacho Vidal Defender
24
Lucas Ahijado
Lucas Ahijado
Defender79'
5
Alberto Reina
Alberto Reina Midfielder
11
Santiago Colombatto
Santiago Colombatto Midfielder
23
Nicolás Fonseca
Nicolás Fonseca Midfielder
27
Pablo Agudín
Pablo Agudín
Midfielder79'
7
Ilyas Chaira
Ilyas Chaira Attacker
8
Santi Cazorla
Santi Cazorla
Midfielder55'
9
Federico Viñas
Federico Viñas Attacker
15
Thiago Fernández
Thiago Fernández Attacker
10
Haissem Hassan
Haissem Hassan
Attacker69'

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Jude Bellingham
Left foot shot / 2nd Goal
80'
79'
Event
Pablo Agudín → Nicolás Fonseca
8th Substitution
79'
Event
Lucas Ahijado → Nacho Vidal
9th Substitution
Event
César Palacios → Brahim Díaz
6th Substitution
77'
Event
Daniel Yáñez → Franco Mastantuono
7th Substitution
77'
Event
Kylian Mbappé → Gonzalo García
5th Substitution
69'
69'
Event
Haissem Hassan → Thiago Fernández
4th Substitution
Event
Jude Bellingham → Aurélien Tchouaméni
2nd Substitution
64'
Event
Daniel Carvajal  → Trent Alexander-Arnold
3rd Substitution
64'
55'
Event
Santi Cazorla → Ilyas Chaira
1st Substitution
1ST-HALF
Event
Gonzalo García
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
44'

Match Commentary

65
Update Update
Foul committed by Santiago Colombatto of Real Oviedo.
64
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Real Madrid: Dani Carvajal replaces Trent Alexander-Arnold.
64
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Real Madrid: Jude Bellingham replaces Aurélien Tchouaméni.
63
Attempt Attempt
Nacho Vidal from Real Oviedo had a missed chance, shooting with his right foot from the right side of the box but missing to the left. The assist came from Alberto Reina with a through ball.
62
Update Update
Nacho Vidal from Real Oviedo was awarded a free kick in defense.
62
Update Update
Foul committed by Vinícius Júnior of Real Madrid.
60
Update Update
Foul committed by Rahim Alhassane from Real Oviedo.
60
Update Update
Franco Mastantuono of Real Madrid won a free kick in defense.
58
Corner Corner
New attacking attempt. Álvaro Carreras of Real Madrid takes a left-footed shot from inside the six-yard box, but Aarón Escandell of Real Oviedo saves it in the left corner. The assist was by Brahim Díaz.
57
Attempt Attempt
Alberto Reina from Real Oviedo missed a chance, shooting with his right foot from the right side of the six-yard box. The assist came from Rahim Alhassane, who provided the cross.
55
Update Update
Nicolás Fonseca of Real Oviedo was awarded a free kick in defense.
55
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Real Oviedo: Santi Cazorla replaces Ilyas Chaira.
55
Update Update
Foul committed by Álvaro Carreras from Real Madrid.
54
Attempt Attempt
New attacking attempt. Trent Alexander-Arnold of Real Madrid takes a right-footed shot from outside the box, but it's saved by Aarón Escandell, the goalkeeper for Real Oviedo, who is positioned in the center of the goal. The assist comes from Franco Mastantuono.
53
Update Update
Foul committed by Santiago Colombatto of Real Oviedo.
53
Update Update
Gonzalo García from Real Madrid won a free kick in defense.
51
Update Update
Alberto Reina from Real Oviedo won a free kick in the attacking area.
51
Update Update
Aurélien Tchouaméni of Real Madrid fouled an opponent.
50
Attempt Attempt
Franco Mastantuono of Real Madrid missed a chance, shooting with his left foot from the right side of the box, sending the ball to the left. The assist came from Trent Alexander-Arnold.
50
Update Update
Foul by Alberto Reina of Real Oviedo.
50
Update Update
Trent Alexander-Arnold of Real Madrid won a free kick on the right wing.
49
Corner Corner
Real Madrid is awarded a corner after Nicolás Fonseca concedes it.
49
Attempt Attempt
Aurélien Tchouaméni's right-footed shot from outside the box is blocked. The assist came from Franco Mastantuono.
46
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Real Oviedo after Aurélien Tchouaméni concedes.
45
Update Update
The second half begins with the score at Real Madrid 1, Real Oviedo 0.
45
Corner Corner
Real Madrid wins a corner after Aarón Escandell concedes.
45
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated there will be no added time.
45
Corner Corner
Brahim Díaz of Real Madrid attempts an attack, shooting with his right foot from the left side of the box. Aarón Escandell of Real Oviedo makes a save in the top left corner. The assist comes from Vinícius Júnior.
45
Update Update
The first half ends with Real Madrid leading 1-0 against Real Oviedo.
44
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Real Madrid leads 1-0 against Real Oviedo. Gonzalo García scores with a right-footed shot from the center of the box into the right corner, assisted by Brahim Díaz.
42
Attempt Attempt
Vinícius Júnior's shot from the center of the box is blocked. Aurélien Tchouaméni provided the assist.
42
Attempt Attempt
Vinícius Júnior from Real Madrid had a missed chance, shooting with his left foot from inside the six-yard box. He aimed for the left side but missed to the left.
39
Update Update
Nicolás Fonseca from Real Oviedo commits a foul.
39
Update Update
Brahim Díaz of Real Madrid won a free kick in an attacking position.
38
Attempt Attempt
Nacho Vidal from Real Oviedo misses a chance as his right-footed shot from the center of the box goes over the bar, assisted by Federico Viñas.
38
Attempt Attempt
Federico Viñas from Real Oviedo missed a chance, shooting with his right foot from the center of the box, sending the ball to the left. Ilyas Chaira provided the assist.
35
Attempt Attempt
Missed chance. Eduardo Camavinga of Real Madrid shoots with his left foot from outside the box, but it's high and wide to the right. The assist was provided by Gonzalo García.
33
Attempt Attempt
Brahim Díaz from Real Madrid had a missed chance, shooting with his left foot from the left side of the box, but it went high and wide to the left. Gonzalo García provided the assist.
31
Attempt Attempt
Gonzalo García's right-footed shot from outside the box is blocked. Álvaro Carreras provided the assist.
27
Update Update
Foul committed by Álvaro Carreras of Real Madrid.
27
Update Update
Raúl Asencio of Real Madrid won a free kick in defense.
27
Update Update
Federico Viñas of Real Oviedo won a free kick in an attacking position.
27
Update Update
Fouled by Federico Viñas of Real Oviedo.
25
Attempt Attempt
Ilyas Chaira from Real Oviedo has a right-footed shot from the right side of the box, but it is blocked. The assist was provided by Nacho Vidal.
25
Update Update
Offside called against Real Madrid. Eduardo Camavinga is offside.
24
Corner Corner
Brahim Díaz of Real Madrid attempts an attack with a left-footed shot from outside the box, but Aarón Escandell of Real Oviedo makes a save in the left corner.
22
Update Update
Brahim Díaz from Real Madrid won a free kick in defense.
22
Update Update
Nicolás Fonseca from Real Oviedo committed a foul.
21
Corner Corner
Real Madrid wins a corner after Eric Bailly concedes.
21
Corner Corner
Missed chance. Trent Alexander-Arnold of Real Madrid shoots with his right foot from outside the box, but it goes close and misses the top left corner. The assist came from Brahim Díaz after a corner.
17
Update Update
Foul committed by Alberto Reina of Real Oviedo.
17
Update Update
Franco Mastantuono from Real Madrid won a free kick in an attacking position.
13
Update Update
Offside called against Real Oviedo. Rahim Alhassane is offside.
9
Corner Corner
Real Oviedo has been awarded a corner after Raúl Asencio conceded it.
9
Corner Corner
Real Oviedo wins a corner after Gonzalo García concedes.
8
Corner Corner
Real Oviedo wins a corner after Raúl Asencio concedes.
8
Attempt Attempt
Alberto Reina's right-footed shot from the right side of the box is blocked. The assist was by Santiago Colombatto.
6
Update Update
Brahim Díaz of Real Madrid won a free kick on the left wing.
6
Update Update
Nicolás Fonseca from Real Oviedo committed a foul.
6
Corner Corner
Franco Mastantuono of Real Madrid attempts an attack with a left-footed shot from the center of the box, but Aarón Escandell of Real Oviedo saves it in the left corner. The assist was provided by Gonzalo García.
4
Update Update
Brahim Díaz of Real Madrid won a free kick in an attacking position.
4
Update Update
Ilyas Chaira from Real Oviedo committed a foul.
3
Update Update
Foul committed by Álvaro Carreras of Real Madrid.
3
Update Update
Ilyas Chaira from Real Oviedo won a free kick in defense.
2
Corner Corner
Real Madrid wins a corner after Rahim Alhassane concedes.

CONCLUSION

Real Madrid's 2-0 triumph over Real Oviedo was a textbook display of dominance, with 65% possession yielding a clean-sheet win. The first-half goal set the tone, and the second ensured progression without alarm. Lacking xG data limits deeper chance analysis, but the significant 25.2% structural deviation highlights an efficient, if variated, performance. Market alignment confirms the predictable nature against a weaker opponent. No reds or adjustments kept dynamics stable, affirming Madrid's control in this cup tie.

Real Madrid vs Real Oviedo preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

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