Sarpsborg 08 vs Fredrikstad Preview, Predictions, Analysis & Tips

2026 Eliteserien, Norway

Sarpsborg Stadion Sat, 9 May - 12:00 PM

Eliteserien

Sarpsborg 08 Sarpsborg 08

Fredrikstad Fredrikstad

Full Time Sat, 9 May 12:00 PM

Round 8 Regular Season

Victor Emanuel Halvorsen - 90+8', 41'

Fredrik Holmé - 17'

CONTEXT

Sarpsborg 08 secured a hard-fought 2-1 win against Fredrikstad, overcoming the perception of their opponents as the stronger team. The match was evenly poised at 1-1 halftime, reflecting a competitive first half where both sides found the net once. Sarpsborg dominated possession with 60% to Fredrikstad's 40%, translating that control into the decisive second-half goal. Despite no red cards disrupting play and no notable second-half adjustments, the home side's persistence paid off in a result marked by significant structural deviation of 92.8%. This upset victory highlights Sarpsborg's efficiency staying in line with expectations, even as pre-match assessments heavily favored a draw. The absence of xG data leaves shot quality unquantified, but the final score underscores tactical execution under pressure. Fredrikstad's inability to capitalize on their favored status adds intrigue to this Eliteserien encounter.

TL;DR

Structural deviation: Sarpsborg 08's 2-1 win exhibited a 92.8% structural deviation rated as significant.
Efficiency shift: Efficiency remained in line with expectations for both teams.
xG alignment: xG alignment cannot be determined due to unavailable data.
Market alignment: The outcome did not align with pre-match market expectations.
xG expectations: xG expectations remain unassessable without recorded metrics.
Event impact: No second-half adjustments or key events altered the game's flow.
Red card distortion: Zero red cards ensured no distortion from player dismissals.

No standings statistics available.

No head-to-head records found.

0.5+ goals: 85%

1.5+ goals: 70%

2.5+ goals: 50%

3.5+ goals: 25%

Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15

Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%

Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

Team	xPts
Home	1.8
Away	1.2

Match referee

S. Amland

Norway 25 matches in sample

Avg. cards

0.12

Fouls / match 0.52

Yellow cards / match 0.12

Red cards / match 0

Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

T. Grønevik

2nd Assistant

Norway

H. Holthe

4th Official

Norway

M. Lundberg

1st Assistant

Norway

E. Sel

A. Hagen

1.22

Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)

0.78

Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)

Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)

0 - 3 - 3

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)

Sarpsborg 08

7.19%

Draw

87.32%

Fredrikstad

5.5%

Team Power Ranking

59.33

59.95

0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)

Metric

Sarpsborg 08

Fredrikstad

Power Score

59.33

59.95

League Position

Global Rank

519

487

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

Sarpsborg 08 — Opponent-weighted form score

Fredrikstad — Opponent-weighted form score

Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Sarpsborg 08 Fredrikstad

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

Sarpsborg 08

Left / Center / Right —

Opposition half density —

vs season average —

Fredrikstad

Left / Center / Right —

Opposition half density —

vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Sarpsborg 08 ⚠ Proxy

⚠ Proxy Fredrikstad

Attacking Efficiency

Higher is better

Attacking Efficiency

25.08

18.75

Defensive Efficiency

Lower is better

Defensive Efficiency

18.75

25.08

Combined Efficiency Index

-3 0 3

Sarpsborg 08 +0.65 Efficiency Index

Fredrikstad -0.65 Efficiency Index

xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.

Sarpsborg 08

Fredrikstad

AttackEff = xG ÷ pos

DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Sarpsborg 08 ⚠ Proxy

⚠ Proxy Fredrikstad

Created Set-piece attacking threat

Sarpsborg 08 Fredrikstad

Set-piece xG Share

—

Goals per Match

0.00 0.00

vs Expected (xG)

— vs —

Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure

Sarpsborg 08 Fredrikstad

Set-piece xGA Share

—

Conceded per Match

0.00 0.00

vs Expected (xGA)

— vs —

xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.

Sarpsborg 08

Fredrikstad

xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG

vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

Sarpsborg 08

Fredrikstad

Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence

Sarpsborg 08 Fredrikstad

Goals per Match ↑ better

—

Shots per Match ↑ better

—

Dangerous Attacks ↑ better

—

Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure

Sarpsborg 08 Fredrikstad

Goals Conceded ↓ better

—

Shots Conceded ↓ better

—

Dangerous Attacks Conceded ↓ better

—

Sarpsborg 08

Fredrikstad

Window = 15s post-possession change

Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

Sarpsborg 08 had peak pressure around 43'.
Fredrikstad started the game with stronger pressure.

Sarpsborg 08 Pressure Fredrikstad Pressure

⚡

Pressure Index: Sarpsborg 08 reached the top pressure at 43' (81.89).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 6 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Sarpsborg 08 Sarpsborg 08 Home

6 matches

Fredrikstad Fredrikstad Away

Match Record

Wins

Draws

Losses

Goals

Goals Scored

Goals Conceded

-6

Goal Difference

Data last updated: 2026-05-10T00:00:57+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1

Match Formation 3-5-2

1 M. Ndiaye

12 C. Niyukuri

4 B. Utvik

2 M. Koch

21 A. Hiim

6 A. Sher

8 S. Christiansen

10 S. Sørli

14 J. Berget

33 A. Hansen

11 D. Seland Karlsbakk

77 M. Børsheim

18 J. Vonheim Norbye

12 U. Fredriksen

4 F. Holmé

5 S. Rafn

21 R. Shein

24 L. Owusu

6 S. Holm

16 D. Eid

13 S. Sørløkk

20 O. Øhlenschlæger

General Information

Date & Time :

May 09, 2026, 12:00 PM

Competition :

2026 Eliteserien, Norway · Round 8 · Regular Season

Stadium :

Sarpsborg Stadion

Capacity :

8022

Attendance :

8022

Pitch Surface :

Artificial turf

Weather :

☀️ 12°C, Fair

Referees :

Sivert Amland

Tom Harald Grønevik

Herman Holthe

Magnus Lundberg

Statistics

Possession

Sarpsborg 08

58%

Fredrikstad

42%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 1

2 Big Chances Created 1

6 Shots 1

61 Dangerous attacks 30

60 Possession 40

11 Corners 3

19 Free kicks 15

4 Yellow Cards 4

Match Overview

8 Goal Attempts 3

83 Ball Safe 76

16 Throwins 17

10 Goal Kicks 10

53 Successful Dribbles Percentage 25

1 Injuries 1

19 Dribble Attempts 8

10 Successful Dribbles 2

4 Substitutions 3

Attacking

97 Attacks 77

Possession

20 Successful Long Passes 27

355 Successful Passes 224

68 Long Passes 87

78 Successful Passes Percentage 71

29 Successful Long Passes Percentage 31

5 Key Passes 3

454 Passes 315

Defensive

12 Tackles 17

5 Interceptions 3

65 Duels Won 43

1 Saves 1

Build-up

30 Total Crosses 10

9 Accurate Crosses 3

Discipline

15 Fouls 19

1 Offsides 3

Lineup

Referee : Sivert Amland

Manager ▼

E. Sel Coach

Starting XI ▼

Mamour Ndiaye Goalkeeper

Menno Koch Defender

Bjørn Inge Utvik Defender

Claus Niyukuri Defender

Magnar Odegaard

Defender65'

Anders Hiim Defender

Aimar Sher Midfielder

Sander Christiansen Midfielder

Sondre Sörli Midfielder

Jo Inge Berget Midfielder

Victor Emanuel Halvorsen

Midfielder16'

Andreas Hansen Midfielder

Noa Williams

Midfielder86'

Daniel Karlsbakk Attacker

Bop Guèye

Midfielder86'

Substitutes ▼

Victor Emanuel Halvorsen

Midfielder16'

Magnar Odegaard

Defender65'

Noa Williams

Midfielder86'

Bop Guèye

Midfielder86'

Bench ▼

L. Øy Goalkeeper

Eirik Wichne Defender

Magnus Mevik Eidal Defender

Chriso Midfielder

Mathias Svenningsen-Grønn Midfielder

Referee : Sivert Amland