Sunderland vs Manchester United Prediction, Preview and Stats

England flag 2025/2026 Premier League, England
Stadium of Light Sat, 9 May - 2:00 PM
Premier League
Sunderland SUN
Versus
Manchester United MUN
KICKOFF : Sat, 9 May - 2:00 PM
Round 36 Regular Season

CONTEXT

Sunderland welcome Manchester United to the Stadium of Light for a Premier League regular season clash in the 2025/2026 campaign. The Black Cats sit 12th in the table, grappling with inconsistency, while the Red Devils hold a strong third place, bolstered by a superior power score of 91.82 against Sunderland's 80.83, granting them an 11-point advantage. Form scores underline United's edge at 36.94 compared to the hosts' modest 14, suggesting momentum favors the visitors. Despite the home advantage on Wearside, Manchester United's higher league standing and overall strength position them as the team to beat. Set-piece data remains limited with low confidence proxies in use and no xG available, leaving tactical battles open. Efficiency and transition metrics are absent, heightening intrigue around execution. Sunderland will need a resolute defensive display and clinical finishing to challenge United's attacking prowess in this mid-to-late season encounter.

TL;DR

  • Structural: Manchester United possess a clear structural edge, ranking 3rd with a power score of 91.82 versus Sunderland's 12th and 80.83.
  • Form: Manchester United boast a superior form score of 36.94 against Sunderland's 14.
  • Squad: Squad quality tilts towards Manchester United, reflected in their higher power rating and league position.
  • Efficiency: Efficiency data is unavailable for this fixture.
  • Transition: Transition play metrics are not provided for either team.
  • Set pieces: Set-piece performance data shows low confidence with proxies used and no xG available.
  • xVariable: xG-related variables are unavailable due to data limitations.
  • Market: Sunderland 24.9% (Δ+0%) | Draw 25.2% (Δ+0%) | Manchester United 50% (Δ+0%).
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Jan 25 vs Team A
Feb 1 vs Team B
Feb 8 vs Team C
Sunderland R. Le Bris
R. Le Bris
VS
Manchester United M. Carrick
M. Carrick
1.17
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.92
1.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Wolverhampton Wanderers Rank: 79 D
Nottingham Forest Rank: 85 L
Aston Villa Rank: 91 L
Tottenham Hotspur Rank: 83 W
Newcastle United Rank: 89 W
Brighton & Hove Albion Rank: 90 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Liverpool Rank: 93 W
Brentford Rank: 88 W
Chelsea Rank: 89 W
Leeds United Rank: 85 L
AFC Bournemouth Rank: 90 D
Aston Villa Rank: 90 W
3
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
3 - 5 - 23
23
No sidelined player data available.

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Sunderland
24.85%
Draw
25.16%
Away Manchester United
49.99%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
80.83
91.82
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Sunderland
Manchester United
Power Score
80.83
91.82
League Position
12
3
Global Rank
55
8

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Sunderland — Opponent-weighted form score
Manchester United — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Sunderland Manchester United

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 31 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Sunderland SUN Home
31 matches
Manchester United MUN Away
Match Record
3
Wins
23
5
Draws
5
23
Losses
3
Goals
18
Goals Scored
56
56
Goals Conceded
18
-38
Goal Difference
+38

Data last updated: 2026-05-06T00:08:02+00:00

STARTING XI - EXPECTED

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
R. Roefs
22 R. Roefs
N. Mukiele Mulere
20 N. Mukiele Mulere
O. Alderete Fernández
15 O. Alderete Fernández
N. Sadiki
27 N. Sadiki
R. Mandava
17 R. Mandava
M. Diarra
19 M. Diarra
G. Xhaka
34 G. Xhaka
T. Hume
32 T. Hume
C. Talbi
7 C. Talbi
E. Le Fée
28 E. Le Fée
B. Brobbey
9 B. Brobbey
S. Lammens
31 S. Lammens
L. Shaw
23 L. Shaw
L. Martínez
6 L. Martínez
H. Maguire
5 H. Maguire
J. Dalot Teixeira
2 J. Dalot Teixeira
K. Mainoo
37 K. Mainoo
C. Casimiro
18 C. Casimiro
M. Carneiro Da Cunha
10 M. Carneiro Da Cunha
B. Fernandes
8 B. Fernandes
A. Traoré
16 A. Traoré
B. Mbeumo
19 B. Mbeumo

General Information

Date & Time :
May 09, 2026, 02:00 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Premier League, England · Round 36 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Stadium of Light
Capacity :
48707
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Stuart Attwell
Constantine Hatzidakis
Nick Greenhalgh
Dean Whitestone

Expected Lineup

Referee : Stuart Attwell

Starting XI ▼

22
Robin Roefs
Robin Roefs Goalkeeper
6.97
9
Brian Brobbey
Brian Brobbey Centre Forward
6.69
27
Noah Sadiki
Noah Sadiki Left Back
6.72
28
Enzo Le Fée
Enzo Le Fée Left Wing
6.92
7
Chemsdine Talbi
Chemsdine Talbi Attacking Midfield
6.64
32
Trai Hume
Trai Hume Right Wing
6.77
34
Granit Xhaka
Granit Xhaka Defensive Midfield
7.13
15
Omar Alderete
Omar Alderete Right Back
6.85
17
Reinildo Mandava
Reinildo Mandava Left Back
6.71
19
Habib Diarra
Habib Diarra Defensive Midfield
6.69
20
Nordi Mukiele
Nordi Mukiele Right Back
6.99
Referee : Stuart Attwell

Starting XI ▼

31
Senne Lammens
Senne Lammens Goalkeeper
6.72
19
Bryan Mbeumo
Bryan Mbeumo Centre Forward
7.02
2
Diogo Dalot
Diogo Dalot Right Back
6.87
16
Amad Diallo
Amad Diallo Right Wing
7.03
37
Kobbie Mainoo
Kobbie Mainoo Defensive Midfield
6.83
5
Harry Maguire
Harry Maguire Right Back
6.77
6
Lisandro Martínez
Lisandro Martínez Left Back
6.82
18
Casemiro
Casemiro Defensive Midfield
7.17
10
Matheus Cunha
Matheus Cunha Left Wing
7.12
23
Luke Shaw
Luke Shaw Left Back
6.75
8
Bruno Fernandes
Bruno Fernandes Attacking Midfield
7.76

CONCLUSION

Manchester United arrive as favorites, leveraging their 11-point power advantage and stronger form to target a vital win in their top-four push. Sunderland, mid-table at 12th, face a stern test at home but could exploit any United complacency with disciplined structure. Without detailed efficiency or set-piece insights, the focus falls on United's transition threat and Sunderland's resilience. The projection split highlights United's 49.2% edge, yet the Black Cats' home crowd may fuel an upset bid. Expect a competitive affair where United's quality likely prevails, extending their momentum in the Premier League race.

Sunderland vs Manchester United preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

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