St. Mirren vs Kilmarnock Prediction, Preview and Stats

Scotland flag 2025/2026 Premiership, Scotland
The Smisa Stadium Sat, 9 May - 2:00 PM
Premiership
St. Mirren STM
Versus
Kilmarnock KIL
KICKOFF : Sat, 9 May - 2:00 PM
Round 36 2nd Phase

CONTEXT

St. Mirren host Kilmarnock in Premiership (2nd Phase) at The Smisa Stadium. Domestically, St. Mirren sit 10th in the table while Kilmarnock are 11th. Power ranking favours Kilmarnock by 1.2 points heading into this fixture.

TL;DR

  • Structural: Kilmarnock possesses a slight 1.2-point power advantage over St. Mirren with ratings of 57.77 to 56.62.
  • Form: Kilmarnock's form score of 23.28 far exceeds St. Mirren's 13.28.
  • Squad: St. Mirren occupy 10th place while Kilmarnock sit 11th in the Premiership.
  • Efficiency: Efficiency metrics are unavailable for this matchup.
  • Transition: Transition play assessment limited by lack of specific data.
  • Set pieces: Set piece stats show low confidence with proxies used and no xG available for either team.
  • xVariable: xG data unavailable, hindering advanced variable analysis.
  • Market: St. Mirren 48.3% (Δ+0%) | Draw 26.5% (Δ+0%) | Kilmarnock 25.3% (Δ+0%).
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Jan 25 vs Team A
Feb 1 vs Team B
Feb 8 vs Team C
St. Mirren C. McLeish
C. McLeish
VS
Kilmarnock N. McCann
N. McCann
0.83
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
0.88
1 i
Last 6 Opponents
Dundee Rank: 58 L
Livingston Rank: 53 L
Celtic Rank: 78 L
Aberdeen Rank: 59 W
Falkirk Rank: 65 W
Rangers Rank: 77 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Dundee United Rank: 64 W
Aberdeen Rank: 58 L
Dundee Rank: 59 D
Hibernian Rank: 67 L
Livingston Rank: 55 W
Hearts Rank: 74 W
14
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
14 - 16 - 26
26
No sidelined player data available.

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home St. Mirren
48.26%
Draw
26.49%
Away Kilmarnock
25.25%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
56.62
57.77
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
St. Mirren
Kilmarnock
Power Score
56.62
57.77
League Position
10
11
Global Rank
592
560

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
St. Mirren — Opponent-weighted form score
Kilmarnock — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) St. Mirren Kilmarnock

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 56 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

St. Mirren STM Home
56 matches
Kilmarnock KIL Away
Match Record
14
Wins
26
16
Draws
16
26
Losses
14
Goals
59
Goals Scored
68
68
Goals Conceded
59
-9
Goal Difference
+9

Data last updated: 2026-05-06T00:08:33+00:00

STARTING XI - EXPECTED

Pitch
G. Tamosevicius
35 G. Tamosevicius
J. Richardson
2 J. Richardson
R. King
5 R. King
M. Freckleton
21 M. Freckleton
S. Tanser
3 S. Tanser
J. Devaney
8 J. Devaney
M. O'Hara
6 M. O'Hara
A. Campbell
16 A. Campbell
K. Phillips
88 K. Phillips
M. Mandron
9 M. Mandron
R. Idowu
7 R. Idowu
M. Stryjek
1 M. Stryjek
M. Schjonning-Larsen
21 M. Schjonning-Larsen
R. Deas
6 R. Deas
G. Stanger
14 G. Stanger
F. Curtis
52 F. Curtis
A. Tshibola
36 A. Tshibola
T. Lowery
18 T. Lowery
G. Kiltie
11 G. Kiltie
N. Serghei Clescenco
20 N. Serghei Clescenco
B. Anderson
19 B. Anderson
J. Hugill
44 J. Hugill

General Information

Date & Time :
May 09, 2026, 02:00 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Premiership, Scotland · Round 36 · 2nd Phase
Stadium :
The Smisa Stadium
Capacity :
8016
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Don Robertson
Calum Spence
Chris Rae
Lloyd Wilson

Expected Lineup

Referee : Don Robertson

Starting XI ▼

35
Grant Tamosevicius
Grant Tamosevicius Goalkeeper
9
Mikael Mandron
Mikael Mandron Attacker
6.9
7
Roland Idowu
Roland Idowu Attacker
6.56
2
Jayden Richardson
Jayden Richardson Right Back
6.56
5
Richard King
Richard King Right Back
6.65
21
Miguel Freckleton
Miguel Freckleton Left Back
7.02
3
Scott Tanser
Scott Tanser Left Back
6.81
8
Jacob Devaney
Jacob Devaney Central Midfield
6.87
6
Mark O'Hara
Mark O'Hara Central Midfield
6.82
16
Allan Campbell
Allan Campbell Central Midfield
6.73
88
Killian Phillips
Killian Phillips Attacking Midfield
6.85
Referee : Don Robertson

Starting XI ▼

1
Maksymilian Stryjek
Maksymilian Stryjek Goalkeeper
7.16
44
Joe Hugill
Joe Hugill Attacker
6.94
19
Bruce Anderson
Bruce Anderson Centre Forward
6.6
20
Nicky Clescenco
Nicky Clescenco Attacker
6.5
11
Greg Kiltie
Greg Kiltie Central Midfield
6.93
36
Aaron Tshibola
Aaron Tshibola Central Midfield
6.79
52
Findlay Curtis
Findlay Curtis Right Back
6.68
14
George Stanger
George Stanger Right Back
6.62
6
Robbie Deas
Robbie Deas Left Back
6.77
21
Michael Schjönning-Larsen
Michael Schjönning-Larsen Left Back
6.61
18
Tom Lowery
Tom Lowery Central Midfield
6.52

CONCLUSION

This Premiership showdown at The Smisa Stadium pits St. Mirren's home resilience against Kilmarnock's sharper form and marginal power edge. The hosts' table position offers psychological boost, yet visitors' momentum could disrupt proceedings in transition. Without granular set-piece or efficiency insights, expect a structured battle where defensive solidity and opportunistic attacks decide the outcome. St. Mirren must harness crowd energy to counter Kilmarnock's recent superiority, potentially securing vital points in the 2nd Phase grind. Kilmarnock, deemed stronger overall, eye an upset to leapfrog their rivals.

St. Mirren vs Kilmarnock preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

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