Aberdeen vs Dundee United Prediction, Preview and Stats

Scotland flag 2025/2026 Premiership, Scotland
Pittodrie Stadium Sat, 9 May - 2:00 PM
Premiership
Aberdeen ABE
2 Winner 0
Dundee United DUD
Full Time Sat, 9 May 2:00 PM
Round 36 2nd Phase
Toyosi Olusanya - 88'
Stuart Armstrong - 19'
Goal
|
|
Second yellow card Emmanuel Agyei 84'

CONTEXT

Aberdeen claimed a 2-0 home win over pre-match stronger side Dundee United, defying expectations with a significant structural deviation. The Dons opened the scoring in the first half to lead 1-0 at halftime, holding a slight 51% possession edge throughout the match. Dundee United, despite near-even possession at 49%, were reduced to ten men after receiving a red card, which distorted second-half proceedings. Aberdeen maintained composure, adding a second goal to seal the victory. This outcome highlights Aberdeen's tactical discipline and ability to exploit numerical advantage, while Dundee United struggled with the dismissal's impact. The result underscores a clear efficiency alignment with the home side's approach, marking a pivotal performance in the campaign.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Aberdeen's 2-0 win featured a significant 55.6% structural deviation in their favor.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift remained in line with expectations for both teams.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment unavailable due to missing data.
  • Market alignment: Final outcome aligned with market expectations.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations unavailable due to missing data.
  • Event impact: Dundee United's red card significantly altered match dynamics.
  • Red card distortion: Away team's red card caused second-half distortion as per adjustments.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

D. Nicolson

Scotland 25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

D. McGeachie

1st Assistant

Scotland

R. Anderson

2nd Assistant

Scotland

A. Grieve

4th Official

Scotland

League averages

Premiership Based on last 100 matches

Fouls / match 18.77
Yellow cards / match 3.13
Red cards / match 0.19
Penalties / match 0.21
Aberdeen S. Robinson
S. Robinson
VS
Dundee United J. Goodwin
J. Goodwin
1.08
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.2
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Livingston Rank: 55 D
Kilmarnock Rank: 56 W
Hibernian Rank: 68 W
St. Mirren Rank: 55 L
Rangers Rank: 77 L
Falkirk Rank: 66 D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Kilmarnock Rank: 56 L
Dundee Rank: 58 W
Livingston Rank: 55 W
Rangers Rank: 77 L
Celtic Rank: 78 W
Dundee Rank: 59 D
20
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
20 - 15 - 18
18

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Aberdeen
44.41%
Draw
27.17%
Away Dundee United
28.42%

Movement

Changes since opening
Aberdeen
-47.6%
Draw
+19.81%
Dundee United
+27.79%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
60.04
61.23
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Aberdeen
Dundee United
Power Score
60.04
61.23
League Position
8
7
Global Rank
485
452

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Aberdeen — Opponent-weighted form score
Dundee United — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Aberdeen Dundee United

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Aberdeen

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Dundee United

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Aberdeen ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Dundee United
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
33.24
17.96
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
17.96
33.24
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Aberdeen +1.50 Efficiency Index
vs
Dundee United -1.50 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Aberdeen
Dundee United
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Aberdeen ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Dundee United
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Aberdeen Dundee United
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Aberdeen Dundee United
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Aberdeen
Dundee United
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Aberdeen
vs
Dundee United
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Aberdeen Dundee United
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Aberdeen 0.38
Dundee United 0.19
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Aberdeen Dundee United
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Aberdeen 0.00
Dundee United 0.05
Aberdeen
Dundee United
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • ABE had peak pressure around 89'.
  • DUD started the game with stronger pressure.
ABE Pressure DUD Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: ABE reached the top pressure at 89' (77.83).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 53 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Aberdeen ABE Home
53 matches
Dundee United DUD Away
Match Record
20
Wins
18
15
Draws
15
18
Losses
20
Goals
61
Goals Scored
62
62
Goals Conceded
61
-1
Goal Difference
+1

Data last updated: 2026-05-10T00:03:10+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-3-1-2
Match Formation 3-4-2-1
Pitch
D. Mitov
Bulgaria
1 D. Mitov
J. Milne
Substitution
Scotland
22 J. Milne
L. Morrison
Scotland
23 L. Morrison
M. Knoester
Netherlands
5 M. Knoester
G. Molloy
Republic of Ireland
21 G. Molloy
D. Geiger
Substitution
Germany
8 D. Geiger
A. Aremu
Substitution
Nigeria
32 A. Aremu
E. Gyamfi
Substitution
Germany
77 E. Gyamfi
S. Armstrong
Substitution
Scotland
16 S. Armstrong
T. Olusanya
England
20 T. Olusanya
K. Nisbet
Scotland
15 K. Nisbet
Pitch
D. Richards
Wales
25 D. Richards
K. Keresztes
Substitution
Hungary
23 K. Keresztes
R. Graham
Scotland
6 R. Graham
I. Iovu
Moldova
4 I. Iovu
W. Ferry
Republic of Ireland
11 W. Ferry
E. Agyei
Ghana
12 E. Agyei
V. Ševelj
Substitution
Croatia
5 V. Ševelj
R. Strain
Australia
2 R. Strain
D. Naamo
Substitution
Finland
22 D. Naamo
N. Farrugia
Substitution
Republic of Ireland
20 N. Farrugia
Z. Sapsford
Substitution
Australia
9 Z. Sapsford

General Information

Date & Time :
May 09, 2026, 02:00 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Premiership, Scotland · Round 36 · 2nd Phase
Stadium :
Pittodrie Stadium
Capacity :
20866
Attendance :
18163
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Duncan Nicolson
David McGeachie
Ross Anderson
Alastair Grieve

Statistics

Possession
ABE
52%
DUD
48%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 0
1 Big Chances Created 1
4 Shots 3
39 Dangerous attacks 36
51 Possession 49
4 Corners 2
16 Free kicks 12
0 Yellow Cards 1
0 Red Cards 1

Match Overview

46 Successful Dribbles Percentage 50
43 Ball Safe 46
10 Goal Kicks 8
22 Throwins 22
13 Dribble Attempts 10
1 Assists 0
6 Successful Dribbles 5
5 Substitutions 4
8 Goal Attempts 1

Attacking

98 Attacks 86
0 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

279 Successful Passes 263
395 Passes 370
36 Successful Long Passes Percentage 36
71 Successful Passes Percentage 71
12 Key Passes 4
26 Successful Long Passes 24
72 Long Passes 67

Defensive

58 Duels Won 54
21 Tackles 16
1 Saves 3
8 Interceptions 9

Build-up

3 Accurate Crosses 2
10 Total Crosses 16

Discipline

12 Fouls 16
0 Offsides 2

Lineup

Referee : Duncan Nicolson

Starting XI ▼

1
Dimitar Mitov
Dimitar Mitov Goalkeeper
5
Mats Knoester
Mats Knoester Defender
21
Gavin Molloy
Gavin Molloy Defender
22
Jack Milne
Jack Milne Defender
2
Nicky Devlin
Nicky Devlin
Defender75'
23
Liam Morrison
Liam Morrison Defender
8
Dennis Geiger
Dennis Geiger Midfielder
4
Graeme Shinnie
Graeme Shinnie
Midfielder66'
16
Stuart Armstrong
Stuart Armstrong Midfielder
25
Lyall Cameron
Lyall Cameron
Midfielder75'
32
Afeez Aremu
Afeez Aremu Midfielder
18
Ante Palaversa
Ante Palaversa
Midfielder82'
77
Emmanuel Gyamfi
Emmanuel Gyamfi Midfielder
3
Mitchel Frame
Mitchel Frame
Defender66'
15
Kevin Nisbet
Kevin Nisbet Attacker
20
Toyosi Olusanya
Toyosi Olusanya Attacker
Referee : Duncan Nicolson

Starting XI ▼

25
Dave Richards
Dave Richards Goalkeeper
4
Iurie Iovu
Iurie Iovu Defender
6
Ross Graham
Ross Graham Defender
23
Krisztián Keresztes
Krisztián Keresztes Defender
36
Max Watters
Max Watters
Attacker46'
2
Ryan Strain
Ryan Strain Midfielder
5
Vicko Sevelj
Vicko Sevelj Midfielder
8
Panutche Camara
Panutche Camara
Midfielder79'
11
Will Ferry
Will Ferry Midfielder
12
Emmanuel Agyei
Emmanuel Agyei Midfielder
9
Zachary Sapsford
Zachary Sapsford Attacker
77
Johnny Russell
Johnny Russell
Attacker79'
20
N. Farrugia
N. Farrugia Attacker
19
Ivan Dolcek
Ivan Dolcek
Attacker57'
22
Dario Naamo
Dario Naamo Attacker
10
Julius Eskesen
Julius Eskesen
Midfielder46'

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Toyosi Olusanya
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
88'
84'
Event
Emmanuel Agyei
Foul / 1st Yellow/red Card
Event
Ante Palaversa → Afeez Aremu
10th Substitution
82'
79'
Event
Johnny Russell → Zachary Sapsford
9th Substitution
79'
Event
Panutche Camara → Vicko Sevelj
8th Substitution
Event
Lyall Cameron → Stuart Armstrong
6th Substitution
75'
Event
Nicky Devlin  → Jack Milne
7th Substitution
75'
73'
Event
Ryan Strain
Argument / 5th Yellowcard
Event
Mitchel Frame → Emmanuel Gyamfi
4th Substitution
66'
Event
Graeme Shinnie  → Dennis Geiger
5th Substitution
66'
63'
Event
Ivan Dolcek
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
Event
Dennis Geiger
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
62'
57'
Event
Ivan Dolcek → N. Farrugia
3rd Substitution
55'
Event
Var
46'
Event
Max Watters → Krisztián Keresztes
2nd Substitution
46'
Event
Julius Eskesen → Dario Naamo
1st Substitution
1ST-HALF
27'
Event
Emmanuel Agyei
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
Event
Stuart Armstrong
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
19'
6'
Event
Iurie Iovu
Foul / 1st Yellowcard

Match Commentary

90
Attempt Attempt
Ante Palaversa takes a left-footed shot, but it misses the target.
90
Attempt Attempt
Mitchel Frame takes a left-footed shot but misses.
89
Attempt Attempt
Olutoyosi Tajudeen Olusanya scores with a right-footed shot.
88
Attempt Attempt
Lyall Cameron takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
86
Attempt Attempt
Kevin Nisbet's right-footed shot is saved.
85
Attempt Attempt
Nicky Devlin takes a right-footed shot but misses.
84
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Emmanuel Agyei receives a second yellow card.
82
Attempt Attempt
Olutoyosi Tajudeen Olusanya takes a left-footed shot but misses.
82
Update Update
Ante Palaversa comes on for Aremu Afeez.
79
Update Update
Johnny Russell comes on for Zachary Sapsford.
79
Update Update
Panutche Camara replaces Vicko Sevelj.
78
Attempt Attempt
Ivan Dolcek takes a left-footed shot but misses.
76
Attempt Attempt
Shot by Olutoyosi Tajudeen Olusanya with his right foot is blocked.
75
Update Update
Lyall Cameron comes on for Stuart Armstrong.
75
Update Update
Nicky Devlin is on, and Jack Milne is off.
66
Update Update
Mitchel Frame replaces Emmanuel Gyamfi.
66
Update Update
Graeme Shinnie replaces Dennis Geiger.
60
Attempt Attempt
Vicko Sevelj takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
59
Attempt Attempt
Julius Eskesen takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
57
Update Update
Ivan Dolcek comes on for Neil Farrugia.
57
Attempt Attempt
Max Watters takes a right-footed shot but misses.
50
Attempt Attempt
Olutoyosi Tajudeen Olusanya takes a left-footed shot, but it is blocked.
49
Attempt Attempt
Zachary Sapsford takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
49
Attempt Attempt
Shot by Olutoyosi Tajudeen Olusanya with a header, but it misses the target.
46
Update Update
Max Watters comes on for Krisztian Keresztes.
46
Update Update
Julius Eskesen is on, and Dario Naamo is off.
42
Update Update
Ryan Strain's header is blocked.
35
Attempt Attempt
Zachary Sapsford takes a left-footed shot but misses.
29
Attempt Attempt
Liam Morrison attempts a header but misses the shot.
28
Attempt Attempt
Kevin Nisbet's right-footed shot is blocked.
27
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Emmanuel Agyei receives a yellow card.
24
Attempt Attempt
Emmanuel Gyamfi's left-footed shot is blocked.
19
Attempt Attempt
Stuart Armstrong scores with a right-footed shot.
8
Attempt Attempt
Olutoyosi Tajudeen Olusanya takes a left-footed shot, but it is saved.

CONCLUSION

Aberdeen's 2-0 triumph over Dundee United stands out as a testament to their home resilience, overcoming the visitors' pre-designated strength through smart play and capitalizing on a crucial red card. The halftime lead of 1-0 set the tone, with balanced possession not deterring the Dons' focus. This significant deviation reinforces Aberdeen's upward trajectory, exposing Dundee United's fragility under pressure. Key takeaways include the red card's distorting effect and overall efficiency consistency, positioning Aberdeen favorably for future fixtures while Dundee United must address disciplinary concerns.

Aberdeen vs Dundee United preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

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