Grazer AK vs Rheindorf Altach Prediction, Preview and Stats

Austria flag 2025/2026 Admiral Bundesliga, Austria
Merkur Arena Sat, 9 May - 3:00 PM
Admiral Bundesliga
Grazer AK GAK
2 – 2
Rheindorf Altach ALT
Full Time Sat, 9 May 3:00 PM
Round 9 Relegation Round
Murat Satin - 90+8'
Daniel Maderner - 87'
Goal
|
Goal
Vesel Demaku - 59'
Patrick Greil - 37'

CONTEXT

Grazer AK hosted Rheindorf Altach in a pulsating Austrian Bundesliga clash that ended in a 2-2 draw, defying pre-match expectations favoring the home side. Grazer AK, deemed the stronger team, controlled 61% possession yet struggled to break down a resilient Altach defense. The visitors struck first, leading 0-1 at halftime with Grazer AK unable to find the net before the break. A spirited second-half comeback saw the hosts equalize twice, but Altach's counterattacking threat ensured parity. This outcome marked a significant structural deviation for Grazer AK, as their dominance failed to yield victory. No red cards disrupted play, and efficiencies stayed in line with assessments, underscoring Altach's effective game management despite lower possession. The draw leaves both teams with points but highlights Grazer AK's need for sharper finishing.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Grazer AK recorded a significant 70.5% structural deviation from expected outcomes in the 2-2 draw.
  • Efficiency shift: Team efficiencies aligned in line with pre-match evaluations throughout the match.
  • xG alignment: xG data unavailable prevented assessment of outcome consistency with expected goals.
  • Market alignment: The draw result diverged from pre-match market probabilities favoring Grazer AK.
  • xG expectations: No xG metrics recorded to evaluate performance against expected goals.
  • Event impact: Lack of second-half adjustments or key events maintained game's natural flow.
  • Red card distortion: Zero red cards ensured no disciplinary distortions affected the 2-2 result.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

I. Simsek

Austria 25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

M. Undesser

1st Assistant

Austria

P. Csobadi

2nd Assistant

Austria

E. Ristoskov

4th Official

Austria

League averages

Admiral Bundesliga Based on last 100 matches

Fouls / match 20.22
Yellow cards / match 3.46
Red cards / match 0.25
Penalties / match 0.3
Grazer AK F. Feldhofer
F. Feldhofer
VS
Rheindorf Altach O. Zaric
O. Zaric
1.41
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.33
1.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
WSG Tirol Rank: 53 W
Wolfsberger AC Rank: 57 L
Ried Rank: 52 L
Ried Rank: 51 D
Rheindorf Altach Rank: 52 L
Blau-Weiß Linz Rank: 53 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Wolfsberger AC Rank: 58 L
Blau-Weiß Linz Rank: 52 L
WSG Tirol Rank: 52 D
WSG Tirol Rank: 51 D
Grazer AK Rank: 53 W
Ried Rank: 53 L
4
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
4 - 4 - 3
3

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Grazer AK
41.65%
Draw
29.52%
Away Rheindorf Altach
28.83%

Movement

Changes since opening
Grazer AK
+37.18%
Draw
-62.41%
Rheindorf Altach
+25.22%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
52.59
51.8
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Grazer AK
Rheindorf Altach
Power Score
52.59
51.8
League Position
11
8
Global Rank
721
744

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Grazer AK — Opponent-weighted form score
Rheindorf Altach — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Grazer AK Rheindorf Altach

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Grazer AK

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Rheindorf Altach

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Grazer AK ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Rheindorf Altach
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
28.28
25.64
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
25.64
28.28
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Grazer AK +0.22 Efficiency Index
vs
Rheindorf Altach -0.22 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Grazer AK
Rheindorf Altach
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Grazer AK ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Rheindorf Altach
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Grazer AK Rheindorf Altach
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Grazer AK Rheindorf Altach
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Grazer AK
Rheindorf Altach
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Grazer AK
vs
Rheindorf Altach
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Grazer AK Rheindorf Altach
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Grazer AK 0.22
Rheindorf Altach 0.45
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Grazer AK Rheindorf Altach
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Grazer AK 0.10
Rheindorf Altach 0.03
Grazer AK
Rheindorf Altach
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • GAK had peak pressure around 103'.
  • GAK started the game with stronger pressure.
GAK Pressure ALT Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: GAK reached the top pressure at 103' (97.37).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 11 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Grazer AK GAK Home
11 matches
Rheindorf Altach ALT Away
Match Record
4
Wins
3
4
Draws
4
3
Losses
4
Goals
17
Goals Scored
16
16
Goals Conceded
17
+1
Goal Difference
-1

Data last updated: 2026-05-10T00:03:47+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-1-4-2
Match Formation 3-4-2-1
Pitch
F. Stolz
Austria
12 F. Stolz
B. Owusu
France
82 B. Owusu
D. Pines
United States
2 D. Pines
M. Kreuzriegler
Austria
4 M. Kreuzriegler
M. Olesen
Substitution
Luxembourg
6 M. Olesen
J. Italiano
Substitution
Australia
14 J. Italiano
T. Schriebl
Substitution
Austria
20 T. Schriebl
C. Lichtenberger
Substitution
Austria
10 C. Lichtenberger
L. Klassen
Russia
32 L. Klassen
M. Grosse
Substitution
Austria
11 M. Grosse
R. Harakaté
France
22 R. Harakaté
Pitch
D. Stojanovic
Austria
1 D. Stojanovic
L. Jäger
Austria
17 L. Jäger
B. Zech
Austria
23 B. Zech
F. Milojevic
Austria
27 F. Milojevic
M. Ouédraogo
Burkina Faso
29 M. Ouédraogo
M. Bähre
Germany
8 M. Bähre
V. Demaku
Substitution
Austria
6 V. Demaku
S. Ingolitsch
Austria
25 S. Ingolitsch
P. Greil
Substitution
Austria
18 P. Greil
Y. Massombo Litawumba
France
28 Y. Massombo Litawumba
S. Hrstić
Substitution
Serbia
11 S. Hrstić

General Information

Date & Time :
May 09, 2026, 03:00 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Admiral Bundesliga, Austria · Round 9 · Relegation Round
Stadium :
Merkur Arena
Capacity :
16764
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Isa Simsek
Manuel Undesser
Patrick Csobadi
Emil Ristoskov

Statistics

Possession
GAK
59%
ALT
41%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 2
1 Big Chances Created 1
14 Shots 9
65 Dangerous attacks 20
61 Possession 39
6 Corners 2
16 Free kicks 8
5 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

1 Assists 1
1 Hit Woodwork 0
11 Goal Attempts 5
13 Dribble Attempts 7
72 Ball Safe 54
7 Successful Dribbles 5
54 Successful Dribbles Percentage 71
5 Substitutions 3
35 Throwins 20
4 Goal Kicks 7

Attacking

1 Big Chances Missed 1
106 Attacks 67

Possession

8 Key Passes 4
211 Successful Passes 110
105 Long Passes 91
26 Successful Long Passes 21
25 Successful Long Passes Percentage 23
357 Passes 247
59 Successful Passes Percentage 45

Defensive

9 Tackles 12
7 Interceptions 2
57 Duels Won 50
2 Saves 4

Build-up

33 Total Crosses 7
6 Accurate Crosses 1

Discipline

3 Offsides 3
8 Fouls 16

Lineup

Referee : Isa Simsek

Starting XI ▼

12
Franz Stolz
Franz Stolz Goalkeeper
2
Donovan Pines
Donovan Pines Defender
4
Martin Kreuzriegler
Martin Kreuzriegler Defender
82
Beres Owusu
Beres Owusu Defender
6
Mathias Olesen
Mathias Olesen Midfielder
8
Tobias Koch
Tobias Koch
Midfielder19'
10
Christian Lichtenberger
Christian Lichtenberger Midfielder
25
Alexander Hofleitner
Alexander Hofleitner
Attacker46'
14
Jacob Italiano
Jacob Italiano Midfielder
15
Lukas Graf
Lukas Graf
Defender82'
20
Thorsten Schriebl
Thorsten Schriebl Midfielder
7
Murat Satin
Murat Satin
Midfielder63'
32
Leon Klassen
Leon Klassen Midfielder
11
Mark Grosse
Mark Grosse Attacker
9
Daniel Maderner
Daniel Maderner
Attacker62'
22
Ramiz Harakate
Ramiz Harakate Attacker
Referee : Isa Simsek

Starting XI ▼

1
Dejan Stojanovic
Dejan Stojanovic Goalkeeper
17
Lukas Jäger
Lukas Jäger Defender
23
Benedikt Zech
Benedikt Zech Defender
27
Filip Milojevic
Filip Milojevic Defender
6
Vesel Demaku
Vesel Demaku Midfielder
20
Alexander Gorgon
Alexander Gorgon
Midfielder85'
8
Mike-Steven Bähre
Mike-Steven Bähre Midfielder
25
Sandro Ingolitsch
Sandro Ingolitsch Midfielder
29
Mohamed Ouédraogo
Mohamed Ouédraogo Midfielder
11
Srdjan Hrstic
Srdjan Hrstic Attacker
10
Ousmane Diawara
Ousmane Diawara
Attacker79'
18
Patrick Greil
Patrick Greil Attacker
5
Lukas Gugganig
Lukas Gugganig
Defender73'
28
Yann Massombo
Yann Massombo Attacker

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Murat Satin
Right foot shot / 4th Goal
90+8'
Event
Daniel Maderner
Right foot shot / 3rd Goal
87'
85'
Event
Alexander Gorgon → Vesel Demaku
8th Substitution
Event
Ramiz Harakate
Argument / 7th Yellowcard
83'
Event
Lukas Graf → Jacob Italiano
7th Substitution
82'
Event
Martin Kreuzriegler
Foul / 6th Yellowcard
81'
79'
Event
Ousmane Diawara → Srdjan Hrstic
6th Substitution
Event
Leon Klassen
Foul / 5th Yellowcard
77'
73'
Event
Lukas Gugganig → Patrick Greil
5th Substitution
Event
Ramiz Harakate
Penalty disallowed
65'
Event
Murat Satin → Thorsten Schriebl
4th Substitution
63'
Event
Franz Stolz
Argument / 4th Yellowcard
63'
63'
Event
Dejan Stojanovic
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
Event
Daniel Maderner → Mark Grosse
3rd Substitution
62'
59'
Event
Vesel Demaku
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
Event
Thorsten Schriebl
Argument / 2nd Yellowcard
52'
Event
Alexander Hofleitner → Christian Lichtenberger
2nd Substitution
46'
1ST-HALF
37'
Event
Patrick Greil
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
25'
Event
Filip Milojevic
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
Event
Tobias Koch → Mathias Olesen
1st Substitution
19'

Match Commentary

90
Attempt Attempt
Murat Satin scores with a right-footed shot.
90
Attempt Attempt
Daniel Maderner takes a right-footed shot but misses.
90
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Murat Satin scores, bringing the match to 2-2.
87
Attempt Attempt
Daniel Maderner scores with a right-footed shot.
86
Attempt Attempt
Leon Klassen takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
86
Attempt Attempt
Tobias Koch takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
85
Attempt Attempt
Daniel Maderner takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
85
Attempt Attempt
Murat Satin takes a left-footed shot but misses.
85
Update Update
Alexander Gorgon is on, and Vesel Demaku is off.
84
Attempt Attempt
Yann Massombo's left-footed shot is saved.
82
Update Update
Lukas Graf comes on for Jacob Italiano.
81
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Martin Kreuzriegler receives a yellow card.
79
Update Update
Ousmane Diawara is on, and Srdjan Hrstic is off.
78
Attempt Attempt
Yann Massombo takes a left-footed shot but misses.
77
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Leon Klassen receives a yellow card.
73
Update Update
Lukas Gugganig is on, and Patrick Greil is off.
72
Attempt Attempt
Donovan Pines attempts a header but misses the shot.
65
Update Update
VAR decision results in the cancellation of the penalty for Ramiz Harakate.
63
Update Update
Murat Satin comes on for Thorsten Schriebl.
62
Update Update
Daniel Maderner is on, and Mark Grosse is off.
61
Attempt Attempt
Tobias Koch takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
59
Attempt Attempt
Tobias Koch's right-footed shot is blocked.
59
Attempt Attempt
Vesel Demaku takes a right-footed shot and scores.
56
Attempt Attempt
Mark Grosse takes a left-footed shot but misses.
52
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card shown to Thorsten Schriebl.
46
Substitution Substitution
Alexander Hofleitner is substituted for Christian Lichtenberger.
44
Attempt Attempt
Jacob Italiano takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
44
Attempt Attempt
Jacob Italiano takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
37
Attempt Attempt
Patrick Greil takes a shot with his right foot and scores.
27
Attempt Attempt
Mark Grosse takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
27
Attempt Attempt
Mark Grosse takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
25
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Filip Milojevic receives a yellow card.
24
Attempt Attempt
Benedikt Zech takes a left-footed shot, but it is blocked.
23
Attempt Attempt
Yann Massombo has a left-footed shot, but it's blocked.
20
Attempt Attempt
Ramiz Harakate's left-footed shot is saved.
19
Update Update
Tobias Koch comes on for Mathias Olesen.
5
Attempt Attempt
Martin Kreuzriegler takes a shot with his head but misses.

CONCLUSION

Grazer AK's 2-2 draw against Rheindorf Altach exposed vulnerabilities despite their superior possession and status as the stronger side. The halftime deficit of 0-1 spurred a recovery, but Altach's defensive solidity and clinical counters secured a share of the spoils. This significant deviation underscores the fine margins in competitive football, where dominance does not guarantee wins. With efficiencies holding steady and no disruptive events, the result reflects Altach's tactical discipline. Grazer AK must refine their conversion rate moving forward, while Altach gains confidence from frustrating favorites. Both sides depart with valuable points in a tightly contested league.

Grazer AK vs Rheindorf Altach preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

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