Brest vs Strasbourg Prediction, Preview and Stats

France flag 2025/2026 Ligue 1, France
Stade Francis-Le Ble Wed, 13 May - 5:00 PM
Ligue 1
Brest B29
1 Winner 2
Strasbourg STR
Full Time Wed, 13 May 5:00 PM
Round 29 Regular Season
Ludovic Ajorque - 13'
Goal
|
Goal
Sebastian Nanasi - 20'
Valentín Barco - 9'

CONTEXT

In a competitive Ligue 1 clash at Stade Francis-Le Blé, Strasbourg edged Brest 1-2 to secure a vital away victory. The match ignited early, with Strasbourg netting twice before halftime to lead 1-2, while Brest managed only a single goal in response. Possession tilted slightly to the visitors at 52% against Brest's 48%, reflecting a balanced affair where efficiency proved decisive. Deemed the stronger team beforehand, Strasbourg justified expectations with clinical finishing and defensive solidity. No red cards disrupted proceedings, allowing uninterrupted play across both halves. Absent xG metrics, the underlying chance creation remains unclear, but the result highlights Strasbourg's structural outperformance by a significant 56.1% deviation margin. Brest pushed valiantly yet couldn't overturn the deficit, underscoring the visitors' edge in key moments.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Strasbourg's 1-2 win showed a significant 56.1% structural deviation in their favor.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiencies for both teams remained in line with pre-match assessments.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment assessment unavailable due to missing data.
  • Market alignment: Match outcome aligned with pre-match market evaluations.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations could not be measured without available data.
  • Event impact: No second-half adjustments or major events influenced the result.
  • Red card distortion: Zero red cards ensured no distortion from dismissals.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

B. Millot

France 25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

A. Drouet

1st Assistant

France

J. Garrigues

2nd Assistant

France

E. Rosier

4th Official

France

League averages

Ligue 1 Based on last 100 matches

Fouls / match 20.49
Yellow cards / match 3.18
Red cards / match 0.17
Penalties / match 0.28
Brest E. Roy
E. Roy
VS
Strasbourg G. O'Neil
G. O'Neil
1.4
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.25
0.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Paris Saint Germain Rank: 95 L
Paris Rank: 72 L
Lens Rank: 82 D
Nantes Rank: 64 D
Rennes Rank: 80 L
Auxerre Rank: 71 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Angers SCO Rank: 67 D
Toulouse Rank: 73 L
Lorient Rank: 74 W
Rennes Rank: 78 L
Nice Rank: 72 W
Nantes Rank: 67 W
5
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
5 - 4 - 3
3

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Brest
28.87%
Draw
27.19%
Away Strasbourg
43.94%

Movement

Changes since opening
Brest
+28.68%
Draw
+22.99%
Strasbourg
-51.67%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
72.97
77.36
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Brest
Strasbourg
Power Score
72.97
77.36
League Position
12
8
Global Rank
144
84

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Brest — Opponent-weighted form score
Strasbourg — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Brest Strasbourg

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Brest

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Strasbourg

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —
Possession Efficiency data not available for this match.

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Brest ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Strasbourg
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Brest Strasbourg
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Brest Strasbourg
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Brest
Strasbourg
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Brest
vs
Strasbourg
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Brest Strasbourg
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Brest 0.00
Strasbourg 0.00
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Brest Strasbourg
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Brest 0.00
Strasbourg 0.00
Brest
Strasbourg
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • B29 had peak pressure around 75'.
  • STR started the game with stronger pressure.
B29 Pressure STR Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: B29 reached the top pressure at 75' (64.14).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 12 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Brest B29 Home
12 matches
Strasbourg STR Away
Match Record
5
Wins
3
4
Draws
4
3
Losses
5
Goals
19
Goals Scored
13
13
Goals Conceded
19
+6
Goal Difference
-6

Data last updated: 2026-05-13T16:30:38+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-1-4-1
Pitch
G. Coudert
France
30 G. Coudert
K. Lala
France
77 K. Lala
R. Le Guen
71 R. Le Guen
M. Diaz
4 M. Diaz
D. Guindo
Mali
27 D. Guindo
J. Chotard
Substitution
France
13 J. Chotard
H. Magnetti
Substitution
France
8 H. Magnetti
R. Del Castillo
Substitution
France
10 R. Del Castillo
K. Doumbia
Substitution
Mali
23 K. Doumbia
E. Dina Ebimbe
Substitution
France
7 E. Dina Ebimbe
L. Ajorque
France
19 L. Ajorque
Pitch
M. Penders
Belgium
39 M. Penders
G. Ouattara
France
42 G. Ouattara
A. Omobamidele
Republic of Ireland
2 A. Omobamidele
I. Doukoure
France
6 I. Doukoure
G. Doué
France
22 G. Doué
S. El Mourabet
France
29 S. El Mourabet
M. Godo
Substitution
England
20 M. Godo
S. Nanasi
Sweden
11 S. Nanasi
V. Barco
Substitution
Argentina
32 V. Barco
D. da Silva Moreira
Substitution
Portugal
7 D. da Silva Moreira
J. Enciso
Paraguay
19 J. Enciso

General Information

Date & Time :
May 13, 2026, 05:00 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Ligue 1, France · Round 29 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Stade Francis-Le Ble
Capacity :
15097
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Benoît Millot
Aurélien Drouet
Julien Garrigues
Eddy Rosier

Statistics

Possession
B29
50%
STR
50%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 2
4 Big Chances Created 2
16 Shots 7
43 Dangerous attacks 36
48 Possession 52
5 Corners 4
11 Free kicks 10
0 Yellow Cards 1

Match Overview

9 Successful Dribbles 13
18 Throwins 13
60 Successful Dribbles Percentage 62
15 Dribble Attempts 21
10 Successful Headers 11
7 Goal Kicks 14
1 Assists 2
71 Ball Safe 76
11 Goal Attempts 6
5 Substitutions 3

Attacking

115 Attacks 83
3 Big Chances Missed 0

Possession

83 Successful Passes Percentage 85
15 Key Passes 9
57 Long Passes 44
29 Successful Long Passes 24
466 Passes 525
389 Successful Passes 445
51 Successful Long Passes Percentage 55

Defensive

52 Duels Won 46
22 Tackles 13
14 Interceptions 12
2 Saves 5

Build-up

23 Total Crosses 11
10 Accurate Crosses 4

Discipline

10 Fouls 11
2 Offsides 4

Lineup

Referee : Benoît Millot

Starting XI ▼

30
Grégoire Coudert
Grégoire Coudert Goalkeeper
6.88
4
Junior Diaz
Junior Diaz Defender
6.91
27
Daouda Guindo
Daouda Guindo Defender
6.62
71
R. Le Guen
R. Le Guen Defender
6.66
77
Kenny Lala
Kenny Lala Defender
6.67
7
Junior Dina Ebimbe
Junior Dina Ebimbe Midfielder
6.6
14
Rémy Labeau Lascary
Rémy Labeau Lascary
Attacker64'
6.65
8
Hugo Magnetti
Hugo Magnetti Midfielder
6.79
17
Mama Baldé
Mama Baldé
Attacker84'
6.76
10
Romain Del Castillo
Romain Del Castillo Midfielder
6.95
99
Pathé Mboup
Pathé Mboup
Attacker78'
6.51
13
Joris Chotard
Joris Chotard Midfielder
6.89
24
Lucas Tousart
Lucas Tousart
Midfielder83'
6.58
23
Kamory Doumbia
Kamory Doumbia Midfielder
6.94
33
Hamidou Makalou
Hamidou Makalou
Midfielder77'
6.55
19
Ludovic Ajorque
Ludovic Ajorque Attacker
7.15
Referee : Benoît Millot

Starting XI ▼

39
Mike Penders
Mike Penders Goalkeeper
6.97
2
Andrew Omobamidele
Andrew Omobamidele Defender
6.7
6
Ismaël Doukouré
Ismaël Doukouré Defender
6.69
22
Guela Doué
Guela Doué Defender
7.08
42
Abdoul Ouattara
Abdoul Ouattara Defender
6.7
7
Diego Moreira
Diego Moreira Midfielder
7
27
Samuel Amo-Ameyaw
Samuel Amo-Ameyaw
Attacker72'
6.71
11
Sebastian Nanasi
Sebastian Nanasi Midfielder
6.82
20
Martial Godo
Martial Godo Midfielder
6.92
34
Yaya Diémé
Yaya Diémé
Attacker82'
6.59
29
Samir El Mourabet
Samir El Mourabet Midfielder
6.94
32
Valentín Barco
Valentín Barco Midfielder
7.32
28
Tyrese Noubissie
Tyrese Noubissie
Midfielder90+2'
6.65
19
Julio Enciso
Julio Enciso Attacker
6.92

Events

2ND-HALF
90+2'
Event
Tyrese Noubissie → Valentín Barco
8th Substitution
85'
Event
Yaya Diémé
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
Event
Mama Baldé → Hugo Magnetti
7th Substitution
84'
Event
Lucas Tousart → Joris Chotard
6th Substitution
83'
82'
Event
Yaya Diémé → Martial Godo
5th Substitution
Event
Pathé Mboup → Romain Del Castillo
4th Substitution
78'
Event
Hamidou Makalou → Kamory Doumbia
3rd Substitution
77'
72'
Event
Samuel Amo-Ameyaw → Diego Moreira
2nd Substitution
Event
Rémy Labeau Lascary → Junior Dina Ebimbe
1st Substitution
64'
1ST-HALF
20'
Event
Sebastian Nanasi
Header / 3rd Goal
Event
Ludovic Ajorque
Header / 2nd Goal
13'
9'
Event
Valentín Barco
Left foot shot / 1st Goal

Match Commentary

77
Attempt Attempt
Missed chance. Junior Diaz from Brest heads the ball from a few meters out.
72
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Strasbourg: Sam Amo-Ameyaw replaces Diego Moreira.
71
Attempt Attempt
Daouda Guindo's left-footed shot from outside the box is blocked.
70
Update Update
Rémy Labeau Lascary from Brest won a free kick in an attacking position.
70
Update Update
Foul committed by Samir El Mourabet of Strasbourg.
69
Attempt Attempt
Rémy Labeau Lascary's right-footed shot from the left side of the box is blocked. Hugo Magnetti provided the assist.
69
Attempt Attempt
Hugo Magnetti's left-footed shot from the left side of the box is blocked. Daouda Guindo provided the assist.
68
Update Update
Kenny Lala from Brest won a free kick in defense.
68
Update Update
Julio Enciso fouled a player from Strasbourg.
66
Attempt Attempt
Romain Del Castillo from Brest missed a chance, shooting with his left foot from outside the box but sending it high. The assist was provided by Ludovic Ajorque.
64
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Brest: Rémy Labeau Lascary replaces Junior Dina Ebimbe.
64
Update Update
Ludovic Ajorque of Brest won a free kick in an attacking position.
64
Update Update
Foul by Andrew Omobamidele - Strasbourg.
61
Attempt Attempt
Diego Moreira from Strasbourg had a missed chance, shooting with his right foot from the right side of the box, but it went wide. Sebastian Nanasi provided the assist.
60
Attempt Attempt
New attacking attempt. Abdoul Ouattara from Strasbourg takes a right-footed shot from outside the box, but Grégoire Coudert from Brest saves it in the top center of the goal.
58
Update Update
Julio Enciso is called offside for Strasbourg.
57
Update Update
Offside called against Strasbourg. Martial Godo is offside.
54
Update Update
Foul committed by Junior Dina Ebimbe of Brest.
54
Update Update
There is a delay in the match due to an injury to Andrew Omobamidele from Strasbourg.
54
Update Update
Samir El Mourabet from Strasbourg won a free kick in defense.
52
Corner Corner
Strasbourg wins a corner after Raphaël Le Guen concedes.
52
Attempt Attempt
Julio Enciso's shot from the left side of the box is blocked. The assist was provided by Martial Godo.
51
Update Update
Andrew Omobamidele from Strasbourg won a free kick in defense.
51
Update Update
Fouled by Kamory Doumbia of Brest.
50
Update Update
Offside called against Brest. Junior Dina Ebimbe is offside.
45
Update Update
The first half ends with Brest trailing 1-2 against Strasbourg.
45
Update Update
The second half begins with the score at Brest 1, Strasbourg 2.
45
Update Update
Diego Moreira commits a foul for Strasbourg.
45
Update Update
Junior Diaz of Brest won a free kick in defense.
45
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated there will be 3 minutes of added time.
45
Attempt Attempt
Junior Diaz from Brest makes an attacking attempt with a right-footed shot from outside the box, but it's saved by Strasbourg's goalkeeper Mike Penders, who is positioned in the center of the goal. The assist comes from Junior Dina Ebimbe.
44
Update Update
Foul committed by Lucas Høgsberg of Strasbourg.
44
Update Update
Ludovic Ajorque won a free kick for Brest in defense.
43
Update Update
Offside called against Strasbourg. Martial Godo is in an offside position.
42
Corner Corner
Ludovic Ajorque had a missed chance for Brest, heading the ball from close range after a corner but failed to score.
42
Update Update
Junior Dina Ebimbe from Brest attempts a header from close range, but Mike Penders from Strasbourg makes a save in the top center of the goal. The assist was provided by Ludovic Ajorque.
41
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Brest after a concession by Mike Penders.
41
Corner Corner
Brest wins a corner after Andrew Omobamidele concedes.
41
Corner Corner
New attacking attempt. Hugo Magnetti of Brest takes a right-footed shot from outside the box, but Mike Penders of Strasbourg saves it in the top right corner.
38
Update Update
Martial Godo from Strasbourg won a free kick in defense.
38
Update Update
Fouled by Romain Del Castillo of Brest.
37
Update Update
Handball by Raphaël Le Guen of Brest.
36
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Brest after a concession by Mike Penders.
36
Corner Corner
Ludovic Ajorque of Brest attempts an attack with a left-footed shot from the center of the box, but it's saved in the top left corner by Mike Penders of Strasbourg. The assist came from Kamory Doumbia.
35
Attempt Attempt
New attacking attempt. Kamory Doumbia of Brest takes a right-footed shot from outside the box, but it's saved by Strasbourg's goalkeeper Mike Penders, who is positioned in the center of the goal. The assist comes from Junior Dina Ebimbe.
33
Update Update
Foul committed by Andrew Omobamidele of Strasbourg.
33
Update Update
Romain Del Castillo from Brest won a free kick in the defensive area.
31
Update Update
Kenny Lala fouled a player from Brest.
31
Update Update
Martial Godo of Strasbourg won a free kick in defense.
31
Attempt Attempt
Raphaël Le Guen's shot from the center of the box is blocked.
30
Attempt Attempt
Ludovic Ajorque's left-footed shot from the center of the box is blocked.
30
Corner Corner
Brest wins a corner after Valentín Barco concedes.
28
Update Update
Ludovic Ajorque is flagged for offside for Brest.
24
Update Update
Lucas Høgsberg from Strasbourg commits a foul.
24
Update Update
Romain Del Castillo from Brest won a free kick in defense.
23
Corner Corner
Strasbourg wins a corner after Grégoire Coudert concedes.
23
Corner Corner
New attacking attempt. Julio Enciso from Strasbourg takes a right-footed shot from outside the box, but it's saved in the top right corner by Grégoire Coudert from Brest. The assist was provided by Sebastian Nanasi.
22
Attempt Attempt
Kamory Doumbia from Brest had a missed chance as he shot with his right foot from the center of the box, but it went close and missed. The assist came from Daouda Guindo with a cross.
20
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Strasbourg takes the lead 2-1 as Sebastian Nanasi heads the ball from close range into the high center of the goal, assisted by Julio Enciso.
17
Attempt Attempt
Abdoul Ouattara's left-footed shot from the left side of the box is blocked. Martial Godo provided the assist.
15
Update Update
Valentín Barco from Strasbourg won a free kick in defense.
15
Update Update
Foul committed by Kamory Doumbia of Brest.
13
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Brest 1, Strasbourg 1. Ludovic Ajorque scores for Brest with a header from the center of the box into the left corner, assisted by Kenny Lala's cross.
9
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Strasbourg takes the lead 1-0 against Brest. Valentín Barco scores with a left-footed shot from a few meters into the left corner, assisted by Sebastian Nanasi.
8
Attempt Attempt
Junior Dina Ebimbe's shot from the center of the box is blocked. The assist came from Hugo Magnetti's cross.
6
Attempt Attempt
Missed chance. Valentín Barco from Strasbourg takes a left-footed shot from the center of the box, but it goes just to the left. Assist by Martial Godo.
4
Update Update
Foul committed by Andrew Omobamidele of Strasbourg.
4
Update Update
Ludovic Ajorque from Brest won a free kick in defense.
3
Update Update
Julio Enciso from Strasbourg won a free kick in defense.
2
Corner Corner
Ludovic Ajorque misses a chance for Brest, heading the ball from close range over the bar. The assist came from Joris Chotard, who delivered a cross after a corner.
1
Corner Corner
Brest is awarded a corner after Lucas Høgsberg concedes.

CONCLUSION

Strasbourg's 1-2 triumph over Brest validates their stronger pre-match standing, capitalizing on a 1-2 halftime lead to repel home pressure. Near-even possession did little to aid Brest's recovery, as Strasbourg's efficiency held firm without disruptive incidents. This market-aligned result, marked by significant structural deviation, boosts the visitors' momentum while exposing Brest's conversion struggles. With no red cards or adjustments altering flow, the performance purity shines through. Strasbourg emerges with confidence for upcoming fixtures, their edge clear in a tightly contested battle.

Brest vs Strasbourg preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

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