Lazio vs Inter Preview, Predictions, Analysis & Tips

2025/2026 Coppa Italia, Italy

Stadio Olimpico Wed, 13 May - 7:00 PM

Coppa Italia

Lazio LAZ

Inter INT

Full Time Wed, 13 May 7:00 PM

Final

Lautaro Martínez - 35'

Marcus Thuram - 14'

CONTEXT

Inter delivered a clinical performance to defeat Lazio 0-2 away from home, asserting dominance from the outset. The Nerazzurri raced into a 2-0 lead by halftime, courtesy of sharp finishing that capitalized on their superior control. Lazio, pinned back with just 42% possession against Inter's 58%, struggled to create meaningful chances throughout. Inter's midfield orchestrated play effectively, transitioning smoothly from defense to attack, while their backline repelled Lazio's sporadic forays. The second half saw no changes in momentum, as Inter managed the game astutely without needing adjustments. This result underscores Inter's strength as the pre-identified superior team, with the outcome reflecting a significant 41.4% deviation in their favor. Lazio's inability to respond highlighted tactical shortcomings, allowing Inter to secure a clean sheet and all three points convincingly.

TL;DR

Structural deviation: Inter's victory featured a significant 41.4% structural deviation in their favor.
Efficiency shift: Team efficiencies remained in line with expectations.
xG alignment: xG alignment is unavailable due to missing data.
Market alignment: The result aligned fully with pre-match market expectations.
xG expectations: xG expectations cannot be evaluated without data.
Event impact: No key events or second-half adjustments altered the match flow.
Red card distortion: Zero red cards produced no distortion in the game dynamics.

No standings statistics available.

No head-to-head records found.

0.5+ goals: 85%

1.5+ goals: 70%

2.5+ goals: 50%

3.5+ goals: 25%

Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15

Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%

Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

Team	xPts
Home	1.8
Away	1.2

Match referee

M. Guida

Italy 25 matches in sample

Avg. cards

0.12

Fouls / match 0.52

Yellow cards / match 0.12

Red cards / match 0

Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

S. Alassio

1st Assistant

Italy

G. Baccini

2nd Assistant

Italy

L. Zufferli

4th Official

Italy

M. Sarri

C. Chivu

1.5

Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)

2.5

Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)

Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)

12 - 10 - 27

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)

Lazio

16.38%

Draw

25.01%

Inter

58.61%

Movement

Changes since opening

Lazio

+16.18%

Draw

+23.09%

Inter

-39.28%

Team Power Ranking

81.03

91.82

0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)

Metric

Lazio

Inter

Power Score

81.03

91.82

League Position

Global Rank

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

Lazio — Opponent-weighted form score

Inter — Opponent-weighted form score

Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Lazio Inter

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

Lazio

Left / Center / Right —

Opposition half density —

vs season average —

Inter

Left / Center / Right —

Opposition half density —

vs season average —

Possession Efficiency data not available for this match.

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Lazio ⚠ Proxy

⚠ Proxy Inter

Created Set-piece attacking threat

Lazio Inter

Set-piece xG Share

—

Goals per Match

0.00 0.00

vs Expected (xG)

— vs —

Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure

Lazio Inter

Set-piece xGA Share

—

Conceded per Match

0.00 0.00

vs Expected (xGA)

— vs —

xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.

Lazio

Inter

xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG

vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

Lazio

Inter

Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence

Lazio Inter

Goals per Match ↑ better

—

Shots per Match ↑ better

—

Dangerous Attacks ↑ better

—

Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure

Lazio Inter

Goals Conceded ↓ better

—

Shots Conceded ↓ better

—

Dangerous Attacks Conceded ↓ better

—

Lazio

Inter

Window = 15s post-possession change

Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

INT had peak pressure around 13'.
INT started the game with stronger pressure.

LAZ Pressure INT Pressure

⚡

Pressure Index: INT reached the top pressure at 13' (78.78).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 49 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Lazio LAZ Home

49 matches

Inter INT Away

Match Record

Wins

Draws

Losses

Goals

Goals Scored

Goals Conceded

-37

Goal Difference

+37

Data last updated: 2026-05-13T18:31:27+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-3-3

Match Formation 3-5-2

40 E. Motta

77 A. Marušić

34 M. Fuentes

13 A. Romagnoli

17 N. Varela Tavares

26 T. Bašić

4 P. Gabarrón Gil

24 K. Taylor

18 G. Isaksen

14 T. Noslin

10 M. Zaccagni

13 J. Martínez Riera

95 A. Bastoni

25 M. Akanji

31 Y. Bisseck

32 F. Dimarco

8 P. Sučić

7 P. Zieliński

23 N. Barella

2 D. Dumfries

10 L. Martínez

9 M. Thuram

General Information

Date & Time :

May 13, 2026, 07:00 PM

Competition :

2025/2026 Coppa Italia, Italy · Final

Stadium :

Stadio Olimpico

Capacity :

72698

Pitch Surface :

Grass

Weather :

☀️ 12°C, Fair

Referees :

Marco Guida

Stefano Alassio

Giovanni Baccini

Luca Zufferli

Statistics

Possession

LAZ

43%

INT

57%

Top Statistics

0 Goals 2

1 Big Chances Created 4

6 Shots 8

30 Dangerous attacks 39

42 Possession 58

1 Corners 3

11 Free kicks 9

3 Yellow Cards 4

Match Overview

71 Successful Dribbles Percentage 53

7 Goal Kicks 8

25 Throwins 20

7 Dribble Attempts 15

5 Successful Dribbles 8

0 Assists 2

2 Goal Attempts 7

51 Ball Safe 66

0 Injuries 1

5 Substitutions 5

Attacking

80 Attacks 111

1 Big Chances Missed 2

Possession

341 Successful Passes 503

402 Passes 566

85 Successful Passes Percentage 89

6 Key Passes 7

39 Long Passes 59

24 Successful Long Passes 33

62 Successful Long Passes Percentage 56

Defensive

16 Tackles 7

4 Interceptions 11

1 Saves 2

42 Duels Won 32

Build-up

3 Accurate Crosses 4

14 Total Crosses 15

Discipline

9 Fouls 11

1 Offsides 2

Lineup

Referee : Marco Guida

Manager ▼

M. Sarri Coach

Starting XI ▼

Edoardo Motta Goalkeeper

6.34

Alessio Romagnoli Defender

7.15

Nuno Tavares Defender

6.8

Mario Gila Defender

7.22

Adam Marusic Defender

6.57

Manuel Lazzari

Midfielder72'

6.43

Patric Midfielder

6.55

Nicolò Rovella

Midfielder46'

6.72

Kenneth Taylor Midfielder

6.83

Toma Bašić Midfielder

7.23

Pedro

Attacker78'

6.7

Mattia Zaccagni Attacker

7.42

Boulaye Dia

Attacker72'

6.82

Tijjani Noslin Attacker

6.71

Gustav Isaksen Attacker

6.73

Matteo Cancellieri

Attacker66'

6.6

Substitutes ▼

Nicolò Rovella

Midfielder46'

6.72

Matteo Cancellieri

Attacker66'

6.6

Boulaye Dia

Attacker72'

6.82

Manuel Lazzari

Midfielder72'

6.43

Pedro

Attacker78'

6.7

Bench ▼

Alessio Furlanetto Goalkeeper

Giacomo Giacomone Goalkeeper

Luca Pellegrini Defender

6.35

Elseid Hysaj Defender

7.45

Oliver Provstgaard Defender

6.4

Fisayo Dele-Bashiru Midfielder

6.94

Reda Belahyane Midfielder

6.39

Danilo Cataldi Midfielder

6.6

Petar Ratkov Attacker

6.6

Daniel Maldini Attacker

7.37

Referee : Marco Guida