Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs Polissya Zhytomyr Prediction, Preview and Stats

Ukraine flag 2025/2026 Premier League, Ukraine
Stadion Kolos Dunaivtsi Tue, 12 May - 12:30 PM
Premier League
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
3 Winner 2
Polissya Zhytomyr Polissya Zhytomyr
Full Time Tue, 12 May 12:30 PM
Round 28 Regular Season
Joaquinete - 89' (P), 49'
Volodymyr Tanchyk - 54'
Goal
|
Goal
Oleksandr Nazarenko - 64'
Nil Coch - 59' (Own Goal)

CONTEXT

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi secured a surprising 3-2 home victory over stronger opponents Polissya Zhytomyr in a match that remained goalless at halftime (0-0). The second half delivered all five goals, with Epitsentr capitalizing on limited possession of 44% against Polissya's 56%. Despite Polissya's favoritism as the stronger team, Epitsentr's clinical finishing proved decisive. No red cards were issued, ensuring uninterrupted play. The result featured a moderate 7% structural deviation in Epitsentr's favor, with efficiencies in line with norms and market alignment confirmed. Absent xG data limits deeper chance analysis, but the outcome highlights Epitsentr's resilience and ability to outperform expectations in a tightly contested affair.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi achieved a moderate 7% structural deviation with their 3-2 win.
  • Efficiency shift: Team efficiencies remained in line with expectations.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment unavailable due to missing data.
  • Market alignment: Outcome fully aligned with pre-match market assessments.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations unevaluable without data.
  • Event impact: No events or adjustments notably impacted the match.
  • Red card distortion: No red cards caused zero distortion.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

O. Afanasiev

Ukraine 25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

D. Romanov

2nd Assistant

Ukraine

I. Rybchenko

1st Assistant

Ukraine

S. Prychyna

4th Official

Ukraine

League averages

Premier League Based on last 100 matches

Fouls / match 15.99
Yellow cards / match 3.03
Red cards / match 0.17
Penalties / match 0.26
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi S. Nahornyak
S. Nahornyak
VS
Polissya Zhytomyr R. Rotan
R. Rotan
1.2
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
2.13
1.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Obolon'-Brovar Rank: 41 D
Veres Rank: 48 D
Oleksandria Rank: 44 D
Karpaty Rank: 53 D
Zorya Luhansk Rank: 54 L
Kudrivka Rank: 41 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Oleksandria Rank: 43 W
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv Rank: 52 W
Obolon'-Brovar Rank: 41 W
Shakhtar Donetsk Rank: 74 L
SK Poltava Rank: 34 W
Veres Rank: 47 D
0
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 1 - 0
0

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
92.98%
Draw
6.38%
Away Polissya Zhytomyr
0.63%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
46.06
61.88
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
Polissya Zhytomyr
Power Score
46.06
61.88
League Position
11
2
Global Rank
847
437

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi — Opponent-weighted form score
Polissya Zhytomyr — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Epitsentr Dunayivtsi Polissya Zhytomyr

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Polissya Zhytomyr

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Polissya Zhytomyr
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
34.20
44.91
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
44.91
34.20
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi -1.09 Efficiency Index
vs
Polissya Zhytomyr +1.09 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
Polissya Zhytomyr
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Polissya Zhytomyr
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi Polissya Zhytomyr
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
1.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi Polissya Zhytomyr
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 1.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
Polissya Zhytomyr
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
vs
Polissya Zhytomyr
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi Polissya Zhytomyr
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 0.67
Polissya Zhytomyr 0.53
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi Polissya Zhytomyr
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 0.05
Polissya Zhytomyr 0.14
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
Polissya Zhytomyr
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • Polissya Zhytomyr had peak pressure around 9'.
  • Polissya Zhytomyr started the game with stronger pressure.
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi Pressure Polissya Zhytomyr Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: Polissya Zhytomyr reached the top pressure at 9' (70.97).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 1 match between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi Epitsentr Dunayivtsi Home
1 matches
Polissya Zhytomyr Polissya Zhytomyr Away
Match Record
0
Wins
0
1
Draws
1
0
Losses
0
Goals
0
Goals Scored
0
0
Goals Conceded
0
0
Goal Difference
0

Data last updated: 2026-05-13T00:00:56+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-4-2-1
Match Formation 4-3-3
Pitch
N. Fedotov
Ukraine
71 N. Fedotov
A. Lipovuz
Substitution
Ukraine
28 A. Lipovuz
N. Coch Montaña
Spain
77 N. Coch Montaña
S. Grygorashchuk
Ukraine
3 S. Grygorashchuk
I. Kyryukhantsev
Substitution
Ukraine
70 I. Kyryukhantsev
O. Klymets
Ukraine
97 O. Klymets
V. Luchkevych
Substitution
Ukraine
67 V. Luchkevych
J. Ceberio Amonarriz
Spain
39 J. Ceberio Amonarriz
E. Zaporozhets
Ukraine
5 E. Zaporozhets
J. Cifuentes Xalmet
Substitution
Spain
9 J. Cifuentes Xalmet
V. Sydun
Substitution
Ukraine
20 V. Sydun
Pitch
G. Bushchan
Ukraine
21 G. Bushchan
B. Mykhaylichenko
Ukraine
15 B. Mykhaylichenko
E. Sarapiy
Ukraine
5 E. Sarapiy
I. Krasniqi
Kosovo
16 I. Krasniqi
G. Maisuradze
Substitution
Georgia
31 G. Maisuradze
O. Fedor
Substitution
Ukraine
27 O. Fedor
R. Babenko
Ukraine
8 R. Babenko
O. Andrievsky
Ukraine
18 O. Andrievsky
M. Bragaru
Substitution
Ukraine
45 M. Bragaru
M. Gayduchyk
Substitution
Ukraine
89 M. Gayduchyk
O. Hutsuliak
Substitution
Ukraine
11 O. Hutsuliak

General Information

Date & Time :
May 12, 2026, 12:30 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Premier League, Ukraine · Round 28 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Stadion Kolos Dunaivtsi
Capacity :
2587
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Oleksandr Afanasiev
Denis Romanov
Igor Rybchenko
Sofia Prychyna

Statistics

Possession
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
42%
Polissya Zhytomyr
58%

Top Statistics

3 Goals 2
7 Shots 10
21 Dangerous attacks 43
44 Possession 56
3 Corners 8
0 Free kicks 2
0 Yellow Cards 1

Match Overview

5 Substitutions 5
2 Assists 1
1 Penalties 1

Attacking

54 Attacks 73

Defensive

8 Saves 3

Discipline

2 Fouls 0

Lineup

Referee : Oleksandr Afanasiev

Starting XI ▼

71
Nikita Fedotov
Nikita Fedotov Goalkeeper
3
Stepan Grigorashchuk
Stepan Grigorashchuk Defender
28
Andriy Lipovuz
Andriy Lipovuz Defender
8
Mykola Myronyuk
Mykola Myronyuk
68'
70
Ihor Kyriukhantsev
Ihor Kyriukhantsev Defender
21
Vladyslav Supryaga
Vladyslav Supryaga
83'
77
Nil Coch
Nil Coch Defender
97
Oleksandr Klymets
Oleksandr Klymets Defender
5
Yevhen Zaporozhets
Yevhen Zaporozhets Midfielder
9
Joaquinete
Joaquinete Midfielder
2
2
Alagy Oliveira
Alagy Oliveira
90+9'
39
Jon Ceberio
Jon Ceberio Midfielder
67
Valeriy Luchkevych
Valeriy Luchkevych Midfielder
34
Volodymyr Tanchyk
Volodymyr Tanchyk
46'
20
Vadym Sydun
Vadym Sydun Attacker
6
Kyrylo Kovalets
Kyrylo Kovalets
90+9'
Referee : Oleksandr Afanasiev

Starting XI ▼

21
Georgiy Bushchan
Georgiy Bushchan Goalkeeper
5
Eduard Sarapiy
Eduard Sarapiy Defender
15
Bogdan Mykhaylichenko
Bogdan Mykhaylichenko Defender
16
Ilir Krasniqi
Ilir Krasniqi Defender
31
Giorgi Maisuradze
Giorgi Maisuradze Defender
4
Mykyta Kravchenko
Mykyta Kravchenko
68'
8
Ruslan Babenko
Ruslan Babenko Midfielder
11
Oleksiy Gutsulyak
Oleksiy Gutsulyak Midfielder
14
Lindon Emërllahu
Lindon Emërllahu
60'
18
Oleksandr Andriyevskyi
Oleksandr Andriyevskyi Midfielder
27
Oleg Fedor
Oleg Fedor Midfielder
9
Oleksandr Filippov
Oleksandr Filippov
55'
45
Maksym Bragaru
Maksym Bragaru Midfielder
7
Oleksandr Nazarenko
Oleksandr Nazarenko
55'
89
Mykola Gayduchyk
Mykola Gayduchyk Attacker
95
Igor Krasnopir
Igor Krasnopir
55'

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Kyrylo Kovalets → Vadym Sydun
9th Substitution
90+9'
Event
Alagy Oliveira → Joaquinete
10th Substitution
90+9'
90+8'
Event
Eduard Sarapiy
1st Missed Penalty
90'
Event
Bogdan Mykhaylichenko
1st Yellowcard
Event
Joaquinete
Penalty / 1st Penalty
89'
Event
Vladyslav Supryaga → Ihor Kyriukhantsev
8th Substitution
83'
Event
Mykola Myronyuk → Andriy Lipovuz
7th Substitution
68'
68'
Event
Mykyta Kravchenko → Giorgi Maisuradze
6th Substitution
64'
Event
Oleksandr Nazarenko
Right foot shot / 3rd Goal
60'
Event
Lindon Emërllahu → Oleksiy Gutsulyak
5th Substitution
59'
Event
Nil Coch
Own Goal / 1st Own Goal
55'
Event
Oleksandr Filippov → Oleg Fedor
2nd Substitution
55'
Event
Igor Krasnopir → Mykola Gayduchyk
3rd Substitution
55'
Event
Oleksandr Nazarenko → Maksym Bragaru
4th Substitution
Event
Volodymyr Tanchyk
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
54'
Event
Joaquinete
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
49'
Event
Volodymyr Tanchyk → Valeriy Luchkevych
1st Substitution
46'

Match Commentary

90
Update Update
Alagy Oliveira comes on for Joaquin Cifuentes.
90
Attempt Attempt
Penalty saved! Eduard Sarapiy stops the shot.
90
Update Update
Kyrylo Kovalets is on, and Vadim Sydun is off.
83
Update Update
Vladyslav Supriaga comes on for Igor Kiryukhantsev.
68
Update Update
Mykola Myronyuk comes on for Andriy Lipovuz.
67
Update Update
Mykyta Kravchenko is on, and Giorgi Maisuradze is off.
60
Update Update
Lindon Emerllahu replaces Oleksiy Gutsulyak.
55
Update Update
Igor Krasnopir comes on for Mykola Gayduchyk.
55
Update Update
Oleksandr Nazarenko replaces Maksim Bragaru.
55
Substitution Substitution
Oleksandr Filippov is substituted for Oleh Andriiovych Fedor.
49
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Joaquin Cifuentes scores to make it 1-0.
46
Update Update
Volodymyr Tanchyk comes on for Valeri Luchkevych.

CONCLUSION

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's 3-2 triumph over Polissya Zhytomyr underscores their second-half dominance despite 44% possession. Polissya's edge as the stronger team and higher ball control did not translate to points, revealing Epitsentr's superior conversion. Moderate structural deviation and aligned efficiencies defined a clean contest without red cards or disruptions. Market consistency affirms the result's plausibility, while absent xG data leaves chance quality open. This upset victory enhances Epitsentr's standing and exposes Polissya's vulnerabilities in tight fixtures.

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs Polissya Zhytomyr preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

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