Tondela vs Moreirense Prediction, Preview and Stats

Portugal flag 2025/2026 Liga Portugal, Portugal
Estádio João Cardoso Mon, 11 May - 7:15 PM
Liga Portugal
Tondela CDT
Versus
Moreirense MFC
KICKOFF : Mon, 11 May - 7:15 PM
Round 33 Regular Season

CONTEXT

Tondela host Moreirense in Liga Portugal (Regular Season) at Estádio João Cardoso. Domestically, Tondela sit 17th in the table while Moreirense are 8th. Power ranking favours Moreirense by 14.6 points heading into this fixture.

TL;DR

  • Structural: Moreirense holds a 14.6-point power advantage and 8th place over Tondela's 17th.
  • Form: Moreirense's form score of 14.5 surpasses Tondela's 11.78.
  • Squad: Moreirense's squad power stands at 68.28, ahead of Tondela's 53.7.
  • Efficiency: Efficiency data unavailable for both teams.
  • Transition: Transition metrics unavailable from current data sources.
  • Set pieces: Set piece xG data unavailable as xG add-on not enabled.
  • xVariable: Advanced xG-based variables unavailable for this fixture.
  • Market: Tondela 48.3% (Δ+0%) | Draw 27.1% (Δ+0%) | Moreirense 24.6% (Δ+0%).
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Jan 25 vs Team A
Feb 1 vs Team B
Feb 8 vs Team C
Tondela G. Feio
G. Feio
VS
Moreirense V. de Albuquerque Botelho da Costa
V. de Albuquerque Botelho da Costa
0.9
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.14
0.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Casa Pia Rank: 62 W
Sporting CP Rank: 88 D
Nacional Rank: 64 L
Porto Rank: 86 L
Gil Vicente Rank: 70 D
Vitória Guimarães Rank: 72 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Estrela Amadora Rank: 59 W
Benfica Rank: 87 L
Estoril Rank: 68 W
Famalicão Rank: 75 D
Sporting Braga Rank: 82 L
Arouca Rank: 65 L
6
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
6 - 4 - 5
5
No sidelined player data available.

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Tondela
48.34%
Draw
27.09%
Away Moreirense
24.57%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
53.7
68.28
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Tondela
Moreirense
Power Score
53.7
68.28
League Position
17
8
Global Rank
458
253

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Tondela — Opponent-weighted form score
Moreirense — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Tondela Moreirense

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 15 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Tondela CDT Home
15 matches
Moreirense MFC Away
Match Record
6
Wins
5
4
Draws
4
5
Losses
6
Goals
19
Goals Scored
17
17
Goals Conceded
19
+2
Goal Difference
-2

Data last updated: 2026-05-07T00:52:18+00:00

STARTING XI - EXPECTED

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
B. Parise Fontes
31 B. Parise Fontes
T. Silva Manso
48 T. Silva Manso
C. Marques
4 C. Marques
J. Antunes da Silva
44 J. Antunes da Silva
R. Fernandes Conceição
27 R. Fernandes Conceição
C. Alves Santana
97 C. Alves Santana
J. Rodríguez López
32 J. Rodríguez López
P. Pereira dos Santos
7 P. Pereira dos Santos
H. Sequeira
79 H. Sequeira
M. Aiko
90 M. Aiko
M. Mesquita Lopes
16 M. Mesquita Lopes
C. Gobbo Secco
22 C. Gobbo Secco
D. Martins Travassos
2 D. Martins Travassos
G. Dambi Batista
66 G. Dambi Batista
J. de Brito Gonzaga
26 J. de Brito Gonzaga
F. de Souza Silva
70 F. de Souza Silva
Y. Farias de Sousa
99 Y. Farias de Sousa
A. Cunha Almeida
25 A. Cunha Almeida
L. Costa Araujo
78 L. Costa Araujo
M. Stjepanovic
8 M. Stjepanovic
F. Ribeiro Tomé Tavares Bondoso
10 F. Ribeiro Tomé Tavares Bondoso
A. de Souza Guimarães
11 A. de Souza Guimarães

General Information

Date & Time :
May 11, 2026, 07:15 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Liga Portugal, Portugal · Round 33 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Estádio João Cardoso
Capacity :
30127
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair

Expected Lineup

Starting XI ▼

31
Bernardo
Bernardo Goalkeeper
6.95
16
Rony Lopes
Rony Lopes Centre Forward
6.97
7
Maranhão
Maranhão Right Wing
6.91
27
Rodrigo Conceição
Rodrigo Conceição Left Back
6.59
44
João Silva
João Silva Left Back
6.73
48
Tiago Manso
Tiago Manso Right Back
6.66
90
Makan Aïko
Makan Aïko Left Wing
6.76
32
Juanse
Juanse Defensive Midfield
6.69
79
Hugo Félix
Hugo Félix Attacking Midfield
6.79
97
Cícero
Cícero Defensive Midfield
6.74
4
Christian Marques
Christian Marques Right Back
6.68

Starting XI ▼

22
Caio Gobbo Secco
Caio Gobbo Secco Goalkeeper
6.83
11
Alan de Souza Guimarães
Alan de Souza Guimarães Centre Forward
7.02
10
Francisco Miguel Ribeiro Tomé Tavares Bondoso
Francisco Miguel Ribeiro Tomé Tavares Bondoso Right Wing
6.66
25
Afonso Assis Cunha Almeida
Afonso Assis Cunha Almeida Defensive Midfield
6.59
78
Landerson
Landerson Left Wing
6.46
2
Travassos
Travassos Left Back
6.89
70
Fabiano Josué de Souza Silva
Fabiano Josué de Souza Silva Right Back
6.39
99
Yan Lincon Farias de Sousa
Yan Lincon Farias de Sousa Defensive Midfield
6.52
8
Mateja Stjepanović
Mateja Stjepanović Attacking Midfield
6.64
26
Jóbson de Brito Gonzaga
Jóbson de Brito Gonzaga Right Back
6.83
66
Gilberto Dambi Batista
Gilberto Dambi Batista Left Back
6.68

CONCLUSION

Overall, the structural indicators point toward Moreirense holding the stronger pre-match profile. Power rankings give Moreirense a 14.6-point edge. External projection is Tondela 48.3%, draw 27.1%, and Moreirense 24.6%. That projection profile diverges from the structural signals, so execution is likely to decide the result. The balance of play should hinge on execution in transitions and set-piece phases.

Tondela vs Moreirense preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

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