Gil Vicente vs Arouca Prediction, Preview and Stats

Portugal flag 2025/2026 Liga Portugal, Portugal
Estádio Cidade de Barcelos Mon, 11 May - 7:15 PM
Liga Portugal
Gil Vicente GVFC
1 Winner 3
Arouca FCA
Full Time Mon, 11 May 7:15 PM
Round 33 Regular Season
Luís André Leite Esteves - 63'
Goal
|
Goal
Taichi Fukui - 82'
Iván Barbero - 67'
Bas Kuipers - 61'

CONTEXT

Gil Vicente hosted Arouca in a Primeira Liga match that ended 1-3 in favor of the visitors, despite Gil Vicente entering as the stronger team. The first half concluded goalless at 0-0, maintaining parity. Arouca enjoyed a marginal possession edge with 55% to Gil Vicente's 45%. All four goals arrived in the second half, where Arouca scored three times to Gil Vicente's one, securing the win. No red cards were issued, ensuring continuous play without major disruptions. The outcome displayed minimal structural deviation of 2.1% towards Arouca, efficiency in line with norms, and full market alignment. Absent xG data limits deeper chance quality analysis, but the result reflects Arouca's effective second-half execution against expectations.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Match showed minimal structural deviation of 2.1% favoring Arouca.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift remained in line with expectations.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment unassessable due to unavailable xG data.
  • Market alignment: Outcome fully aligned with pre-match market assessment.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations could not be evaluated without data.
  • Event impact: No significant events or second-half adjustments impacted play.
  • Red card distortion: No red cards occurred, causing zero distortion to dynamics.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

M. Monteiro Fonseca

Portugal
Fouls / match 0
Yellow cards / match 0
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

J. Ferreira Martins

1st Assistant

Portugal

D. Rodrigues Soares

2nd Assistant

Portugal

H. Teixeira

4th Official

Portugal

League averages

Liga Portugal Based on last 100 matches

Fouls / match 24.01
Yellow cards / match 4.38
Red cards / match 0.16
Penalties / match 0.37
Gil Vicente P. da Silva Peixoto
P. da Silva Peixoto
VS
Arouca V. Freire De Seabra
V. Freire De Seabra
1.29
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.29
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Rio Ave Rank: 64 D
Casa Pia Rank: 62 W
Vitória Guimarães Rank: 70 L
Tondela Rank: 62 D
AVS Rank: 60 W
Santa Clara Rank: 68 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Santa Clara Rank: 66 D
Alverca Rank: 65 L
Estrela Amadora Rank: 59 W
Sporting Braga Rank: 81 L
Estoril Rank: 68 W
Moreirense Rank: 67 W
0
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 7 - 6
6

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Gil Vicente
0.2%
Draw
1.92%
Away Arouca
97.89%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
68.94
66.58
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Gil Vicente
Arouca
Power Score
68.94
66.58
League Position
6
11
Global Rank
237
294

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Gil Vicente — Opponent-weighted form score
Arouca — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Gil Vicente Arouca

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Gil Vicente

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Arouca

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Gil Vicente ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Arouca
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
39.11
26.27
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
26.27
39.11
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Gil Vicente — Efficiency Index
vs
Arouca — Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Gil Vicente
Arouca
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Gil Vicente ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Arouca
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Gil Vicente Arouca
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Gil Vicente Arouca
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Gil Vicente
Arouca
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Gil Vicente
vs
Arouca
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Gil Vicente Arouca
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Gil Vicente 0.29
Arouca 0.45
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Gil Vicente Arouca
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Gil Vicente 0.10
Arouca 0.02
Gil Vicente
Arouca
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • FCA had peak pressure around 26'.
  • GVFC started the game with stronger pressure.
GVFC Pressure FCA Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: FCA reached the top pressure at 26' (70.62).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 13 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Gil Vicente GVFC Home
13 matches
Arouca FCA Away
Match Record
0
Wins
6
7
Draws
7
6
Losses
0
Goals
11
Goals Scored
22
22
Goals Conceded
11
-11
Goal Difference
+11

Data last updated: 2026-05-12T00:03:50+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
D. Leite Figueira
Portugal
99 D. Leite Figueira
J. Teixeira Lopes Reis Gonçalves
Portugal
2 J. Teixeira Lopes Reis Gonçalves
M. Elimbi Gilbert
France
4 M. Elimbi Gilbert
J. Buatu Mananga
Angola
39 J. Buatu Mananga
G. Konan
Substitution
Ivory Coast
3 G. Konan
J. Natário Ferreira
Substitution
Portugal
6 J. Natário Ferreira
S. Garcia Gonzalez
Substitution
Spain
95 S. Garcia Gonzalez
M. De Souza Costa
Brazil
77 M. De Souza Costa
L. Leite Esteves
Portugal
10 L. Leite Esteves
A. Moreira Morales
Substitution
Uruguay
27 A. Moreira Morales
G. Pereira De Sousa
Substitution
Portugal
89 G. Pereira De Sousa
Pitch
I. De Arruabarrena Fernández
Uruguay
12 I. De Arruabarrena Fernández
B. Kuipers
Netherlands
25 B. Kuipers
J. Fontán Mondragón
Spain
3 J. Fontán Mondragón
J. Sánchez de Felipe
Spain
15 J. Sánchez de Felipe
T. Sousa Esgaio
Portugal
28 T. Sousa Esgaio
T. Fukui
Japan
21 T. Fukui
E. van Ee
Netherlands
22 E. van Ee
N. Djouahra
Substitution
France
7 N. Djouahra
P. Gozalbez Gilabert
Substitution
Spain
10 P. Gozalbez Gilabert
A. Trezza Hernández
Substitution
Uruguay
19 A. Trezza Hernández
I. Martínez Gonzálvez
Substitution
Spain
17 I. Martínez Gonzálvez

General Information

Date & Time :
May 11, 2026, 07:15 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Liga Portugal, Portugal · Round 33 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Estádio Cidade de Barcelos
Capacity :
12046
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Miguel André Monteiro Fonseca
João Pedro Ferreira Martins
David Moisés Rodrigues Soares
Humberto Teixeira

Statistics

Possession
GVFC
46%
FCA
54%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 3
2 Big Chances Created 2
5 Shots 4
52 Dangerous attacks 29
45 Possession 55
6 Corners 2
17 Free kicks 13
2 Yellow Cards 1

Match Overview

62 Ball Safe 93
20 Successful Dribbles Percentage 60
15 Dribble Attempts 10
14 Throwins 22
3 Goal Kicks 6
12 Successful Headers 12
3 Successful Dribbles 6
5 Substitutions 4
1 Assists 2
1 Hit Woodwork 0
8 Goal Attempts 9
0 Injuries 2

Attacking

88 Attacks 68
0 Counter Attacks 1
2 Big Chances Missed 0

Possession

354 Passes 453
56 Successful Long Passes Percentage 47
312 Successful Passes 379
88 Successful Passes Percentage 84
36 Long Passes 68
10 Key Passes 12
20 Successful Long Passes 32

Defensive

10 Tackles 19
8 Interceptions 6
4 Saves 4
42 Duels Won 50

Build-up

8 Accurate Crosses 5
24 Total Crosses 11

Discipline

13 Fouls 17
2 Offsides 2

Lineup

Referee : Miguel André Monteiro Fonseca

Starting XI ▼

99
Daniel Alexis Leite Figueira
Daniel Alexis Leite Figueira Goalkeeper
2
José Carlos Teixeira Lopes dos Reis Gonçalves
José Carlos Teixeira Lopes dos Reis Gonçalves Defender
3
Ghislain Konan
Ghislain Konan Defender
29
Carlos Eduardo Borges Parente
Carlos Eduardo Borges Parente
Attacker83'
4
Marvin Adolphe Fabrice Elimbi Gilbert
Marvin Adolphe Fabrice Elimbi Gilbert Defender
39
Buatu
Buatu Defender
6
Zé Carlos
Zé Carlos Midfielder
5
Facundo Agustín Cáseres
Facundo Agustín Cáseres
Midfielder46'
10
Luís André Leite Esteves
Luís André Leite Esteves Midfielder
27
Agustín Nahuel Moreira Morales
Agustín Nahuel Moreira Morales Midfielder
11
Joelson Fernandes
Joelson Fernandes
Attacker46'
77
Murilo de Souza Costa
Murilo de Souza Costa Midfielder
95
Santiago García González
Santiago García González Midfielder
32
Martín Fernández Benítez
Martín Fernández Benítez
Midfielder64'
89
Gustavo Miguel Pereira de Sousa Varela
Gustavo Miguel Pereira de Sousa Varela Attacker
23
Héctor Hernández
Héctor Hernández
Attacker64'
Referee : Miguel André Monteiro Fonseca

Starting XI ▼

12
Ignacio de Arruabarrena
Ignacio de Arruabarrena Goalkeeper
3
José Fontán
José Fontán Defender
15
Javi Sánchez
Javi Sánchez Defender
25
Bas Kuipers
Bas Kuipers Defender
28
Tiago Esgaio
Tiago Esgaio Defender
7
Naïs Djouahra
Naïs Djouahra Midfielder
2
José Silva
José Silva
Defender90+2'
10
Pablo Gozálbez
Pablo Gozálbez Midfielder
24
Brian Mansilla
Brian Mansilla
Attacker90+2'
19
Alfonso Trezza
Alfonso Trezza Midfielder
46
Mateo Flores
Mateo Flores
Midfielder76'
21
Taichi Fukui
Taichi Fukui Midfielder
22
Espen van Ee
Espen van Ee Midfielder
17
Iván Barbero
Iván Barbero Attacker
23
Dylan Nandín
Dylan Nandín
Attacker82'

Events

2ND-HALF
90+2'
Event
Brian Mansilla → Pablo Gozálbez
8th Substitution
90+2'
Event
José Silva → Naïs Djouahra
9th Substitution
Event
Héctor Hernández
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
89'
Event
Carlos Eduardo Borges Parente → Ghislain Konan
7th Substitution
83'
82'
Event
Taichi Fukui
Right foot shot / 4th Goal
82'
Event
Dylan Nandín → Iván Barbero
6th Substitution
76'
Event
Mateo Flores → Alfonso Trezza
5th Substitution
67'
Event
Iván Barbero
Right foot shot / 3rd Goal
Event
Martín Fernández Benítez → Santiago García González
3rd Substitution
64'
Event
Héctor Hernández → Gustavo Miguel Pereira de Sousa Varela
4th Substitution
64'
Event
Luís André Leite Esteves
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
63'
61'
Event
Bas Kuipers
Header / 1st Goal
Event
Facundo Agustín Cáseres → Zé Carlos
1st Substitution
46'
Event
Joelson Fernandes → Agustín Nahuel Moreira Morales
2nd Substitution
46'
1ST-HALF
43'
Event
José Fontán
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
Event
Agustín Nahuel Moreira Morales
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
22'

Match Commentary

55
Update Update
Santi García from Gil Vicente won a free kick on the right wing.
55
Update Update
Espen van Ee from Arouca commits a foul.
55
Update Update
Alfonso Trezza from Arouca commits a foul.
55
Update Update
Jonathan Buatu from Gil Vicente won a free kick on the left wing.
54
Corner Corner
Gil Vicente wins a corner after Javi Sánchez concedes it.
53
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Gil Vicente after a concession by Javi Sánchez.
53
Attempt Attempt
Joelson Fernandes of Gil Vicente has a shot from a difficult position and long distance on the left, but it is blocked. The assist came from Ghislain Konan.
52
Attempt Attempt
Alfonso Trezza from Arouca had a missed chance, shooting with his right foot from outside the box, just missing to the left. The assist came from Barbero, who set him up with a header.
51
Update Update
Facundo Cáseres of Gil Vicente won a free kick in defense.
51
Update Update
Fouled by Barbero of Arouca.
48
Attempt Attempt
Gustavo Varela from Gil Vicente attempts an attack with a right-footed shot from the center of the box, but it's saved by Arouca's goalkeeper Ignacio de Arruabarrena, with an assist from Santi García.
47
Update Update
Joelson Fernandes of Gil Vicente commits a foul.
47
Update Update
Marvin Elimbi's header from the right side of the box is blocked after a cross from Luís Esteves.
47
Update Update
Taichi Fukui from Arouca won a free kick in defense.
47
Attempt Attempt
Facundo Cáseres from Gil Vicente has his left-footed shot from the center of the box blocked.
47
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Gil Vicente after Tiago Esgaio concedes.
45
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated there will be 2 minutes of added time.
45
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Gil Vicente: Joelson Fernandes replaces Agustín Moreira.
45
Update Update
The second half begins with the score at Gil Vicente 0, Arouca 0.
45
Update Update
The first half ends with Gil Vicente and Arouca tied at 0-0.
45
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Gil Vicente: Facundo Cáseres replaces Zé Carlos II.
45
Update Update
Offside called against Gil Vicente. Agustín Moreira is offside.
44
Update Update
Offside called against Arouca. Bas Kuipers is offside.
43
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
José Fontán from Arouca receives a yellow card for a foul.
43
Update Update
José Fontán from Arouca committed a foul.
43
Update Update
Santi García from Gil Vicente won a free kick in defense.
42
Update Update
Foul committed by Alfonso Trezza of Arouca.
42
Update Update
Ghislain Konan of Gil Vicente won a free kick in defense.
40
Update Update
Offside called against Gil Vicente. Marvin Elimbi is in an offside position.
40
Corner Corner
Gil Vicente is awarded a corner after Tiago Esgaio concedes it.
39
Attempt Attempt
Luís Esteves' shot from the center of the box is blocked. The assist was provided by Zé Carlos II.
36
Attempt Attempt
New attacking attempt. Barbero of Arouca heads the ball from the center of the box, but it's saved by goalkeeper Daniel Figueira of Gil Vicente, who is positioned in the center of the goal. The assist came from Alfonso Trezza with a cross.
35
Update Update
José Fontán from Arouca won a free kick in defense.
35
Update Update
Gustavo Varela of Gil Vicente won a free kick in defense.
35
Update Update
Foul committed by Espen van Ee of Arouca.
35
Update Update
Santi García from Gil Vicente committed a foul.
34
Update Update
Pablo Gozálbez from Arouca won a free kick on the right wing.
34
Attempt Attempt
Naïs Djouahra from Arouca had a missed chance, shooting with his right foot from outside the box, but it went close and missed. Barbero provided the assist.
32
Update Update
Foul committed by Javi Sánchez of Arouca.
32
Update Update
Gustavo Varela from Gil Vicente was awarded a free kick in an attacking position.
31
Update Update
Alfonso Trezza from Arouca commits a foul.
31
Update Update
Luís Esteves of Gil Vicente won a free kick on the left wing.
29
Update Update
Luís Esteves of Gil Vicente won a free kick in defense.
29
Update Update
Zé Carlos from Gil Vicente won a free kick in defense.
26
Update Update
There is a delay in the match due to an injury to Alfonso Trezza from Arouca.
24
Attempt Attempt
Alfonso Trezza from Arouca had a missed chance, shooting with his right foot from the right side of the box but missing to the left. Pablo Gozálbez provided the assist.
23
Update Update
There is a delay in the match due to an injury to Pablo Gozálbez from Arouca.
22
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Agustín Moreira of Gil Vicente receives a yellow card for a foul.
22
Update Update
Agustín Moreira from Gil Vicente committed a foul.
22
Update Update
Pablo Gozálbez from Arouca won a free kick on the right wing.
19
Update Update
Pablo Gozálbez from Arouca won a free kick on the left wing.
18
Update Update
Javi Sánchez of Arouca is flagged for offside.
18
Attempt Attempt
Alfonso Trezza's right-footed shot from outside the box is blocked. The assist came from Taichi Fukui with a cross.
17
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Arouca after Zé Carlos I concedes.
15
Update Update
Tiago Esgaio from Arouca commits a foul.
15
Update Update
Luís Esteves from Gil Vicente won a free kick in defense.
12
Corner Corner
New attacking attempt. Barbero from Arouca takes a right-footed shot from outside the box, but it's saved in the right corner by Daniel Figueira of Gil Vicente. The assist was provided by Javi Sánchez.
12
Update Update
There is a delay in the match due to an injury to Jonathan Buatu of Gil Vicente.
12
Attempt Attempt
Bas Kuipers' left-footed shot from outside the box is blocked. Alfonso Trezza provided the assist.
8
Corner Corner
Missed chance. Ghislain Konan from Gil Vicente shoots with his left foot from outside the box, but it goes wide after a corner.
7
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Gil Vicente after a concession by Bas Kuipers.
5
Update Update
Jonathan Buatu of Gil Vicente won a free kick in defense.
2
Update Update
Pablo Gozálbez from Arouca won a free kick in defense.
1
Attempt Attempt
Murilo de Souza from Gil Vicente missed a header from the center of the box, shooting to the left. The assist came from Zé Carlos with a cross.

CONCLUSION

Arouca's 1-3 victory over stronger Gil Vicente stemmed from dominant second-half performance after a 0-0 halftime. Their 55% possession translated into three goals, exposing Gil Vicente's defensive frailties. Minimal deviation and aligned efficiencies indicate the scoreline mirrored underlying play patterns. Without red cards or key events, Arouca's clinical edge decided the contest. This result challenges pre-match strength views but affirms structured contest resolution, highlighting visitors' adaptability and finishing precision in the decisive period.

Gil Vicente vs Arouca preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

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