Santa Clara vs Nacional Prediction, Preview and Stats

Portugal flag 2025/2026 Liga Portugal, Portugal
Estádio de São Miguel Mon, 11 May - 7:15 PM
Liga Portugal
Santa Clara CDSC
2 Winner 0
Nacional CDN
Full Time Mon, 11 May 7:15 PM
Round 33 Regular Season
Elias Manoel - 90+2'
Pedro Pacheco - 27'
Goal
|

CONTEXT

Santa Clara claimed a convincing 2-0 win against Nacional, overcoming lower possession to secure the victory. The home team struck first in the opening half, leading 1-0 at halftime, and maintained their advantage through a disciplined defensive display. Despite Nacional enjoying 59% possession compared to Santa Clara's 41%, the visitors struggled to create clear chances, allowing Santa Clara to add a second goal and control the game's tempo in the second period. Identified as the stronger side pre-match, Santa Clara's performance reflected their superiority, with no red cards or major disruptions altering the flow. This result underscores Santa Clara's efficiency in both attack and defense, turning limited ball control into a clean-sheet triumph.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Match showed moderate 9.1% structural deviation favoring Santa Clara.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift stayed in line with expectations.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment unavailable due to missing data.
  • Market alignment: Outcome aligned with pre-match market assessments.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations unassessable without data.
  • Event impact: No key events significantly impacted match dynamics.
  • Red card distortion: No red cards occurred, avoiding any play distortion.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

H. Carvalho

Portugal
Fouls / match 0
Yellow cards / match 0
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

J. Graça Mira

1st Assistant

Portugal

R. da Silva

2nd Assistant

Portugal

J. Sousa Mendes

4th Official

Portugal

League averages

Liga Portugal Based on last 100 matches

Fouls / match 24.01
Yellow cards / match 4.38
Red cards / match 0.16
Penalties / match 0.37
Santa Clara Petit
Petit
VS
Nacional T. Carvalho Margarido
T. Carvalho Margarido
1.05
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
0.9
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Arouca Rank: 65 D
Sporting Braga Rank: 81 W
Casa Pia Rank: 62 D
Rio Ave Rank: 64 L
Sporting CP Rank: 88 L
Gil Vicente Rank: 69 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
AVS Rank: 56 L
Tondela Rank: 60 W
Alverca Rank: 66 W
Benfica Rank: 87 L
Estrela Amadora Rank: 59 W
Famalicão Rank: 74 L
5
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
5 - 1 - 1
1

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Santa Clara
90.94%
Draw
8.68%
Away Nacional
0.38%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
67.61
63.99
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Santa Clara
Nacional
Power Score
67.61
63.99
League Position
12
14
Global Rank
265
367

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Santa Clara — Opponent-weighted form score
Nacional — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Santa Clara Nacional

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Santa Clara

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Nacional

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Santa Clara ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Nacional
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
33.90
23.56
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
23.56
33.90
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Santa Clara — Efficiency Index
vs
Nacional — Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Santa Clara
Nacional
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Santa Clara ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Nacional
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Santa Clara Nacional
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Santa Clara Nacional
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Santa Clara
Nacional
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Santa Clara
vs
Nacional
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Santa Clara Nacional
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Santa Clara 0.32
Nacional 0.32
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Santa Clara Nacional
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Santa Clara 0.00
Nacional 0.05
Santa Clara
Nacional
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • CDN had peak pressure around 38'.
  • CDN started the game with stronger pressure.
CDSC Pressure CDN Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: CDN reached the top pressure at 38' (100.00).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 7 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Santa Clara CDSC Home
7 matches
Nacional CDN Away
Match Record
5
Wins
1
1
Draws
1
1
Losses
5
Goals
17
Goals Scored
7
7
Goals Conceded
17
+10
Goal Difference
-10

Data last updated: 2026-05-12T00:03:55+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
J. Oliveira Afonso
50 J. Oliveira Afonso
D. Dos Santos Cabral
Portugal
2 D. Dos Santos Cabral
S. Pena De Lima
Brazil
23 S. Pena De Lima
P. Pacheco Seabra
Portugal
4 P. Pacheco Seabra
P. de Almeida Barbosa
Brazil
64 P. de Almeida Barbosa
J. Rocha Tavares
Cape Verde
65 J. Rocha Tavares
A. Felisberto dos Santos
Substitution
Brazil
78 A. Felisberto dos Santos
W. dos Santos
Substitution
Brazil
49 W. dos Santos
G. Dimaraes Miranda
Substitution
Brazil
77 G. Dimaraes Miranda
G. Silva Vieira
Substitution
Brazil
10 G. Silva Vieira
G. Mendes Paciencia
Substitution
Portugal
39 G. Mendes Paciencia
Pitch
K. Pereira Azarias
Brazil
1 K. Pereira Azarias
J. Mendes Gomes
Portugal
5 J. Mendes Gomes
F. Baptista Gonçalves
Portugal
33 F. Baptista Gonçalves
L. Rodrigues dos Santos
Brazil
34 L. Rodrigues dos Santos
J. Coimbra Aurélio
Substitution
Portugal
2 J. Coimbra Aurélio
Matheus Dias
Substitution
Brazil
6 Matheus Dias
F. Barros Soares
Substitution
Portugal
22 F. Barros Soares
P. Pereira da Silva
Brazil
11 P. Pereira da Silva
D. de Melo Araujo Junior
Substitution
Brazil
10 D. de Melo Araujo Junior
W. Quembo
Substitution
Mozambique
7 W. Quembo
J. Ramírez Díaz
Venezuela
9 J. Ramírez Díaz

General Information

Date & Time :
May 11, 2026, 07:15 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Liga Portugal, Portugal · Round 33 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Estádio de São Miguel
Capacity :
13277
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Hélder Carvalho
José Manuel Graça Mira
Rúben João Rodrigues da Silva
João Pedro Sousa Mendes

Statistics

Possession
CDSC
45%
CDN
55%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 0
2 Big Chances Created 0
12 Shots 12
38 Dangerous attacks 38
41 Possession 59
4 Corners 6
16 Free kicks 10
1 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

81 Ball Safe 77
18 Dribble Attempts 15
19 Throwins 28
78 Successful Dribbles Percentage 47
16 Successful Headers 16
14 Successful Dribbles 7
10 Goal Kicks 13
5 Substitutions 5
2 Assists 0
1 Injuries 2
8 Goal Attempts 8

Attacking

84 Attacks 143
1 Big Chances Missed 0
2 Counter Attacks 1

Possession

75 Successful Passes Percentage 81
227 Successful Passes 365
304 Passes 451
37 Successful Long Passes Percentage 38
51 Long Passes 53
19 Successful Long Passes 20
8 Key Passes 11

Defensive

9 Interceptions 7
68 Duels Won 45
22 Tackles 13
1 Saves 0

Build-up

17 Total Crosses 18
5 Accurate Crosses 5

Discipline

10 Fouls 16
1 Offsides 0

Lineup

Referee : Hélder Carvalho

Starting XI ▼

50
João Afonso
João Afonso Goalkeeper
2
Diogo Calila
Diogo Calila Defender
4
Pedro Pacheco
Pedro Pacheco Defender
23
Sidney Lima
Sidney Lima Defender
64
Paulo Victor
Paulo Victor Defender
10
Gabriel Silva
Gabriel Silva Midfielder
26
Luis Fernando
Luis Fernando
Attacker82'
49
Welinton Torrão
Welinton Torrão Midfielder
70
Vinícius Lopes
Vinícius Lopes
Attacker82'
65
Djé
Djé Midfielder
77
Gustavo Klismahn
Gustavo Klismahn Midfielder
37
Darlan
Darlan
Midfielder64'
78
Andrey
Andrey Midfielder
—
Andrey
64'
39
Gonçalo Paciência
Gonçalo Paciência Attacker
7
Elias Manoel
Elias Manoel
Attacker24'
Referee : Hélder Carvalho

Starting XI ▼

1
Kaique
Kaique Goalkeeper
2
João Aurélio
João Aurélio Defender
16
Alan Nuñez
Alan Nuñez
Defender62'
5
José Gomes
José Gomes Defender
33
Francisco Gonçalves
Francisco Gonçalves Defender
34
Léo Santos
Léo Santos Defender
6
Matheus Dias
Matheus Dias Midfielder
15
Chiheb Labidi
Chiheb Labidi
Midfielder46'
7
Witiness Quembo
Witiness Quembo Midfielder
27
Gabriel Veron
Gabriel Veron
Attacker46'
10
Daniel Jr
Daniel Jr Midfielder
19
Lucas João
Lucas João
Attacker82'
11
Paulinho Bóia
Paulinho Bóia Midfielder
22
Filipe Soares
Filipe Soares Midfielder
30
Martim Gustavo Watts
Martim Gustavo Watts
Midfielder90+4'
9
Jesús Ramírez
Jesús Ramírez Attacker

Events

2ND-HALF
90+4'
Event
Martim Gustavo Watts → Filipe Soares
10th Substitution
Event
Elias Manoel
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
90+2'
Event
Vinícius Lopes → Welinton Torrão
9th Substitution
82'
Event
Luis Fernando → Gabriel Silva
7th Substitution
82'
82'
Event
Lucas João → Daniel Jr
8th Substitution
Event
Darlan
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
80'
Event
Isaac Valença → Andrey
6th Substitution
64'
Event
Darlan → Gustavo Klismahn
5th Substitution
64'
62'
Event
Alan Nuñez → João Aurélio
4th Substitution
60'
Event
João Aurélio
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
46'
Event
Gabriel Veron → Witiness Quembo
3rd Substitution
46'
Event
Chiheb Labidi → Matheus Dias
2nd Substitution
1ST-HALF
29'
Event
Paulinho Bóia
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
Event
Pedro Pacheco
Header / 1st Goal
27'
Event
Elias Manoel → Gonçalo Paciência
1st Substitution
24'
Event
Var
13'

Match Commentary

90
Update Update
Martim Watts comes on for Filipe Miguel Barros Soares.
90
Attempt Attempt
Elias Alves scores with a right-footed shot.
90
Attempt Attempt
Jose Manuel Mendes Gomes takes a right-footed shot but misses.
90
Attempt Attempt
Jesus Ramirez takes a left-footed shot, but it's blocked.
90
Attempt Attempt
Diogo dos Santos Cabral takes a right-footed shot but misses.
83
Attempt Attempt
Vinicius Lopes Da Silva takes a right-footed shot but misses.
83
Attempt Attempt
Gabriel Veron Fonseca de Souza takes a left-footed shot but misses.
82
Update Update
Lucas Eduardo Santos Joao replaces Daniel Junior.
82
Update Update
Vinicius Lopes Da Silva is on, and Welinton Macedo dos Santos is off.
82
Update Update
Luis Fernando Santos Oliveira replaces Gabriel Silva Vieira.
80
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Darlan Pereira Mendes receives a yellow card.
65
Update Update
Darlan Pereira Mendes is on, and Gustavo Klismahn Dimaraes Miranda is off.
65
Update Update
Isaac Souza Valenca is on, and Andrey is off.
62
Update Update
Alan Núñez is on, and Joao Miguel Coimbra Aurelio is off.
60
Attempt Attempt
Gabriel Silva Vieira takes a right-footed shot but misses.
59
Attempt Attempt
Leonardo Rodrigues dos Santos attempts a header but misses the shot.
58
Attempt Attempt
Jesus Ramirez takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
57
Attempt Attempt
Elias Alves takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
46
Update Update
Gabriel Veron Fonseca de Souza is on, and Witiness Chimoio Joao Quembo is off.
46
Update Update
Gabriel Veron Fonseca de Souza is on, and Witiness Chimoio Joao Quembo is off.
45
Attempt Attempt
Filipe Miguel Barros Soares takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
45
Attempt Attempt
Daniel Junior takes a left-footed shot but misses.
40
Attempt Attempt
Elias Alves takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
40
Attempt Attempt
Andrey takes a left-footed shot but misses.
38
Attempt Attempt
Gabriel Silva Vieira takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
37
Attempt Attempt
Witiness Chimoio Joao Quembo takes a left-footed shot but misses.
34
Attempt Attempt
Jesus Ramirez attempted a header, but it missed the target.
31
Attempt Attempt
Welinton Macedo dos Santos takes a right-footed shot but misses.
27
Attempt Attempt
Pedro Pacheco takes a shot with his head and scores a goal.
25
Attempt Attempt
Witiness Chimoio Joao Quembo attempts a right-footed shot but misses.
24
Update Update
Elias Alves comes on for Goncalo Paciencia.
14
Attempt Attempt
Goncalo Paciencia attempts a header but misses the shot.
13
Update Update
The VAR decision has disallowed the goal due to offside.
12
Attempt Attempt
Goncalo Paciencia attempts a header but misses the shot.
11
Attempt Attempt
Jesus Ramirez takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
7
Attempt Attempt
Witiness Chimoio Joao Quembo takes a left-footed shot but misses.

CONCLUSION

Santa Clara's 2-0 victory over Nacional validates their status as the stronger team, achieved through resilient defending and opportunistic scoring despite trailing in possession. The 1-0 halftime lead set the foundation, with second-half solidity preventing Nacional breakthroughs. This performance highlights tactical discipline and clinical execution, resulting in a moderate structural deviation that aligned with expectations. Without red cards or disruptions, the game showcased pure team quality, reinforcing Santa Clara's control and setting a positive tone for future fixtures.

Santa Clara vs Nacional preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

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