Osijek vs Istra 1961 Prediction, Preview and Stats

Croatia flag 2025/2026 1. HNL, Croatia
Stadion Gradski vrt Sun, 10 May - 2:00 PM
1. HNL
Osijek Osijek
Versus
Istra 1961 Istra 1961
KICKOFF : Sun, 10 May - 2:00 PM
Round 34 Regular Season

CONTEXT

Osijek hosts Istra 1961 at Stadion Gradski vrt in a pivotal 1. HNL regular season fixture for the 2025/2026 campaign. Power ratings reveal a razor-thin edge for the home side at 63.27 against 63.14, marking Osijek as marginally stronger by 0.1 points. League standings show Istra 1961 in 6th place ahead of Osijek's 9th, yet form metrics paint a different picture with Osijek's robust 20.78 score towering over the visitors' modest 6.39. This matchup promises intensity in Croatia's top flight, where home support often proves decisive. Detailed efficiency and transition data remain unavailable, while set piece analysis relies on low-confidence proxy figures without xG insights. Both squads enter without recent outing specifics, heightening unpredictability. Osijek seeks to leverage superior recent momentum against a higher-placed but faltering Istra 1961 side.

TL;DR

  • Structural: Osijek possesses a slight power advantage of 0.1 points over Istra 1961, rated at 63.27 versus 63.14.
  • Form: Osijek's form score stands at 20.78, significantly outperforming Istra 1961's 6.39.
  • Squad: No detailed squad information available for Osijek or Istra 1961.
  • Efficiency: Efficiency metrics unavailable for this 1. HNL encounter.
  • Transition: Transition play data not provided for either team.
  • Set pieces: Set piece stats use low-confidence proxies without xG availability for both Osijek and Istra 1961.
  • xVariable: xG data absent, limiting advanced variable analysis in this fixture.
  • Market: Osijek 49.4% (Δ+0%) | Draw 27.2% (Δ+0%) | Istra 1961 23.5% (Δ+0%).
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Jan 25 vs Team A
Feb 1 vs Team B
Feb 8 vs Team C
Osijek T. Radotic
T. Radotic
VS
Istra 1961 K. Režić
K. Režić
1.1
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1
1.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Vukovar Rank: 55 L
Lokomotiva Zagreb Rank: 63 D
Hajduk Split Rank: 72 W
Varaždin Rank: 64 L
Rijeka Rank: 71 W
Dinamo Zagreb Rank: 81 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Slaven Koprivnica Rank: 62 W
Gorica Rank: 61 L
Dinamo Zagreb Rank: 80 L
Vukovar Rank: 54 L
Lokomotiva Zagreb Rank: 63 L
Hajduk Split Rank: 73 L
27
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
27 - 20 - 17
17
No sidelined player data available.

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Osijek
49.37%
Draw
27.17%
Away Istra 1961
23.46%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
63.27
63.14
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Osijek
Istra 1961
Power Score
63.27
63.14
League Position
9
6
Global Rank
396
402

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Osijek — Opponent-weighted form score
Istra 1961 — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Osijek Istra 1961

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 64 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Osijek Osijek Home
64 matches
Istra 1961 Istra 1961 Away
Match Record
27
Wins
17
20
Draws
20
17
Losses
27
Goals
85
Goals Scored
67
67
Goals Conceded
85
+18
Goal Difference
-18

Data last updated: 2026-05-07T00:48:27+00:00

STARTING XI - EXPECTED

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
M. Malenica
31 M. Malenica
J. Mersinaj
5 J. Mersinaj
L. Jelenić
26 L. Jelenić
B. Barišić
3 B. Barišić
F. Karačić
29 F. Karačić
D. Mejía Moscoso
6 D. Mejía Moscoso
O. Petrusenko
16 O. Petrusenko
D. Bukvić
39 D. Bukvić
T. Teklić
99 T. Teklić
N. Omerović
11 N. Omerović
S. Akere
57 S. Akere
F. Kolić
1 F. Kolić
M. Heister
26 M. Heister
R. Kumar
38 R. Kumar
F. Taraba
24 F. Taraba
R. Hrvatin
44 R. Hrvatin
S. Miettinen
16 S. Miettinen
J. Radošević
5 J. Radošević
V. Rozić
7 V. Rozić
S. Lončar
10 S. Lončar
E. Frederiksen
17 E. Frederiksen
S. Prevljak
9 S. Prevljak

General Information

Date & Time :
May 10, 2026, 02:00 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 1. HNL, Croatia · Round 34 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Stadion Gradski vrt
Capacity :
1000
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair

Expected Lineup

Starting XI ▼

31
Marko Malenica
Marko Malenica Goalkeeper
6.92
57
Samuel Akere
Samuel Akere Centre Forward
6.87
39
Domagoj Bukvic
Domagoj Bukvic Right Wing
6.65
3
Borna Barisic
Borna Barisic Left Back
6.79
29
Fran Karacic
Fran Karacic Left Back
7.14
99
Tonio Teklic
Tonio Teklic Attacking Midfield
6.8
5
Jon Mersinaj
Jon Mersinaj Right Back
6.61
26
Luka Jelenic
Luka Jelenic Right Back
6.81
16
Oleksandr Petrusenko
Oleksandr Petrusenko Defensive Midfield
6.68
11
Nail Omerovic
Nail Omerovic Left Wing
6.88
6
David Mejía
David Mejía Defensive Midfield
6.7

Starting XI ▼

1
Franko Kolic
Franko Kolic Goalkeeper
6.93
9
Smail Prevljak
Smail Prevljak Centre Forward
6.92
24
Filip Taraba
Filip Taraba Right Back
6.56
26
Marcel Heister
Marcel Heister Left Back
6.73
10
Stjepan Loncar
Stjepan Loncar Attacking Midfield
6.87
44
R. Hrvatin
R. Hrvatin Right Back
6.43
38
Raul Kumar
Raul Kumar Left Back
6.76
17
Emil Frederiksen
Emil Frederiksen Right Wing
6.93
7
Vinko Rozic
Vinko Rozic Left Wing
6.7
5
Josip Radosevic
Josip Radosevic Defensive Midfield
6.88
16
Samuli Miettinen
Samuli Miettinen Defensive Midfield
6.47

CONCLUSION

Osijek enters as the narrow favorite, buoyed by superior form and a home venue edge despite trailing in the standings. Istra 1961's higher league position belies their weaker recent performances, setting up a contest where momentum could prevail. Lacking granular efficiency or set piece edges, the match hinges on execution in open play and defensive solidity. Expect Osijek to press their power slight and crowd support for a potential victory, though Istra's resilience might force a stalemate. Key battles in midfield will dictate control, with Osijek's higher form score suggesting greater cutting edge.

Osijek vs Istra 1961 preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

About BestPreviews Methodology & FAQ More Match Reports

How We Build This Analysis

BestPreviews combines tactical context, lineup quality, xG trends, and form data across competitions. Read the full methodology and FAQ.

Related Football Previews

Explore League Previews

1. HNL, Croatia View all league clusters View methodology and FAQ