Antwerp vs Sporting Charleroi Prediction, Preview and Stats

Belgium flag 2025/2026 Pro League, Belgium
Bosuilstadion Sun, 10 May - 2:00 PM
Pro League
Antwerp ANT
0 Winner 1
Sporting Charleroi SPC
Full Time Sun, 10 May 2:00 PM
Round 7 Conference League Play-off Group
|
Goal

CONTEXT

Antwerp hosted Sporting Charleroi in the Belgian Pro League, ending in a 0-1 defeat for the home side. Sporting Charleroi, deemed the stronger team pre-match, capitalized on their first-half opportunity to lead 0-1 at halftime, a scoreline that held through a second half devoid of further goals or major adjustments. Antwerp controlled 55% possession but struggled to create clear chances, while Charleroi's 45% share proved more clinical. No red cards were issued, ensuring the match flowed without disciplinary disruptions. The outcome exhibited a significant 63.4% structural deviation in Charleroi's favor, aligning with market expectations where they were marginally favored. Efficiency metrics stayed in line with norms, though xG data absence limits deeper chance quality analysis. Charleroi's victory underscores their pre-match edge, extending their strong form against a possession-dominant but toothless Antwerp.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Result displayed a significant 63.4% structural deviation favoring Sporting Charleroi.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiencies for both teams remained in line with expectations.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment unassessable due to unavailable data.
  • Market alignment: Final outcome aligned with pre-match market positioning.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations unmet due to lack of underlying data.
  • Event impact: No second-half adjustments or key events altered match dynamics.
  • Red card distortion: No red cards occurred, resulting in zero distortion to the scoreline.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

B. Verbeke

Belgium 25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

T. Vanpoucke

2nd Assistant

Belgium

G. Seeldraeyers

1st Assistant

Belgium

A. De Beuckelaer

4th Official

Belgium

League averages

Pro League Based on last 100 matches

Fouls / match 20.02
Yellow cards / match 3.4
Red cards / match 0.19
Penalties / match 0.35
Antwerp J. Oosting
J. Oosting
VS
Sporting Charleroi M. Kohnen
M. Kohnen
1.36
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.18
1.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Standard Liège Rank: 69 L
Westerlo Rank: 71 W
Standard Liège Rank: 70 W
OH Leuven Rank: 66 W
Sporting Charleroi Rank: 72 L
Genk Rank: 77 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Genk Rank: 77 W
OH Leuven Rank: 65 W
Genk Rank: 77 D
Standard Liège Rank: 68 L
Antwerp Rank: 70 W
Westerlo Rank: 70 L
6
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
6 - 4 - 10
10

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Antwerp
35.21%
Draw
28.17%
Away Sporting Charleroi
36.62%

Movement

Changes since opening
Antwerp
+35.02%
Draw
+23.08%
Sporting Charleroi
-58.1%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
69.85
72.27
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Antwerp
Sporting Charleroi
Power Score
69.85
72.27
League Position
10
11
Global Rank
214
155

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Antwerp — Opponent-weighted form score
Sporting Charleroi — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Antwerp Sporting Charleroi

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Antwerp

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Sporting Charleroi

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Antwerp ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Sporting Charleroi
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
36.55
30.33
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
30.33
36.55
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Antwerp +0.59 Efficiency Index
vs
Sporting Charleroi -0.59 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Antwerp
Sporting Charleroi
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Antwerp ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Sporting Charleroi
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Antwerp Sporting Charleroi
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Antwerp Sporting Charleroi
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Antwerp
Sporting Charleroi
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Antwerp
vs
Sporting Charleroi
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Antwerp Sporting Charleroi
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Antwerp 0.43
Sporting Charleroi 0.36
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Antwerp Sporting Charleroi
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Antwerp 0.03
Sporting Charleroi 0.00
Antwerp
Sporting Charleroi
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • ANT had peak pressure around 67'.
  • ANT started the game with stronger pressure.
ANT Pressure SPC Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: ANT reached the top pressure at 67' (100.00).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 20 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Antwerp ANT Home
20 matches
Sporting Charleroi SPC Away
Match Record
6
Wins
10
4
Draws
4
10
Losses
6
Goals
25
Goals Scored
29
29
Goals Conceded
25
-4
Goal Difference
+4

Data last updated: 2026-05-11T00:04:11+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-4-1-2
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
T. Nozawa
Japan
41 T. Nozawa
R. Van Helden
Belgium
20 R. Van Helden
Y. Tsunashima
Substitution
Japan
4 Y. Tsunashima
D. Foulon
Belgium
5 D. Foulon
A. Valencia
Ecuador
14 A. Valencia
D. Praet
Substitution
Belgium
8 D. Praet
Xander Dierckx
Substitution
Belgium
78 Xander Dierckx
E. Tuypens
Substitution
Belgium
56 E. Tuypens
C. Scott
Germany
30 C. Scott
V. Janssen
Netherlands
18 V. Janssen
G. Kerk
Netherlands
7 G. Kerk
Pitch
M. Kone
France
30 M. Kone
M. Nzita
Belgium
24 M. Nzita
C. keita
France
95 C. keita
A. Ousou
Sweden
4 A. Ousou
L. Blum
Switzerland
27 L. Blum
E. Camara
France
5 E. Camara
Y. Titraoui
Substitution
Algeria
22 Y. Titraoui
A. Bernier
Substitution
Belgium
17 A. Bernier
P. Guiagon
Substitution
Ivory Coast
10 P. Guiagon
K. Van Den Kerkhof
Substitution
Algeria
3 K. Van Den Kerkhof
A. Scheidler
France
21 A. Scheidler

General Information

Date & Time :
May 10, 2026, 02:00 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Pro League, Belgium · Round 7 · Conference League Play-off Group
Stadium :
Bosuilstadion
Capacity :
16649
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Bert Verbeke
Tom Vanpoucke
Gianni Seeldraeyers
Arne De Beuckelaer

Statistics

Possession
ANT
53%
SPC
47%

Top Statistics

0 Goals 1
2 Big Chances Created 0
7 Shots 7
42 Dangerous attacks 33
55 Possession 45
4 Corners 3
9 Free kicks 16
2 Yellow Cards 3

Match Overview

20 Successful Dribbles Percentage 35
5 Goal Kicks 9
15 Dribble Attempts 17
21 Throwins 14
3 Successful Dribbles 6
0 Assists 1
4 Substitutions 4
1 Hit Woodwork 0
1 Penalties 0
7 Goal Attempts 3
76 Ball Safe 76

Attacking

2 Big Chances Missed 0
104 Attacks 96

Possession

80 Successful Passes Percentage 78
37 Successful Long Passes Percentage 44
9 Key Passes 11
49 Long Passes 64
450 Passes 369
18 Successful Long Passes 28
360 Successful Passes 288

Defensive

24 Tackles 22
7 Interceptions 7
55 Duels Won 58
1 Saves 1

Build-up

6 Accurate Crosses 4
17 Total Crosses 10

Discipline

16 Fouls 10
3 Offsides 0

Lineup

Referee : Bert Verbeke

Starting XI ▼

41
Taishi Brandon Nozawa
Taishi Brandon Nozawa Goalkeeper
4
Yuto Tsunashima
Yuto Tsunashima Defender
11
Geoffry Hairemans
Geoffry Hairemans
Midfielder77'
5
Daam Foulon
Daam Foulon Defender
20
Rein Van Helden
Rein Van Helden Defender
8
Dennis Praet
Dennis Praet Midfielder
16
Mauricio Benitez
Mauricio Benitez
Midfielder70'
14
Anthony Valencia
Anthony Valencia Midfielder
56
Eran Tuypens
Eran Tuypens Midfielder
22
Farouck Adekami
Farouck Adekami
Midfielder71'
78
Xander Dierckx
Xander Dierckx Midfielder
79
Gerard Vandeplas
Gerard Vandeplas
Attacker87'
7
Gyrano Kerk
Gyrano Kerk Attacker
18
Vincent Janssen
Vincent Janssen Attacker
30
Christopher Scott
Christopher Scott Attacker
Referee : Bert Verbeke

Starting XI ▼

30
Mohamed Koné
Mohamed Koné Goalkeeper
4
Aiham Ousou
Aiham Ousou Defender
24
Mardochée Nzita
Mardochée Nzita Defender
27
Lewin Blum
Lewin Blum Defender
95
Check Keita
Check Keita Defender
3
Kevin Van Den Kerkhof
Kevin Van Den Kerkhof Midfielder
25
Antoine Colassin
Antoine Colassin
Attacker87'
5
Étienne Camara
Étienne Camara Midfielder
10
Parfait Guiagon
Parfait Guiagon Midfielder
14
Patrick Pflücke
Patrick Pflücke
Attacker74'
17
Antoine Bernier
Antoine Bernier Midfielder
8
Jakob Napoleon Romsaas
Jakob Napoleon Romsaas
Midfielder63'
22
Yassine Titraoui
Yassine Titraoui Midfielder
40
Yassine Khalifi
Yassine Khalifi
Midfielder74'
21
Aurélien Scheidler
Aurélien Scheidler Attacker

Events

2ND-HALF
90'
Event
Mohamed Koné
Time wasting / 5th Yellowcard
Event
Gerard Vandeplas → Xander Dierckx
8th Substitution
87'
87'
Event
Antoine Colassin → Kevin Van Den Kerkhof
7th Substitution
Event
Geoffry Hairemans
Woodwork
86'
Event
Anthony Valencia
Penalty awarded
85'
81'
Event
Jakob Napoleon Romsaas
4th Yellowcard
Event
Geoffry Hairemans → Yuto Tsunashima
6th Substitution
77'
74'
Event
Yassine Khalifi → Yassine Titraoui
4th Substitution
74'
Event
Patrick Pflücke → Parfait Guiagon
5th Substitution
Event
Farouck Adekami → Eran Tuypens
3rd Substitution
71'
Event
Mauricio Benitez → Dennis Praet
2nd Substitution
70'
Event
Vincent Janssen
Off the ball foul / 3rd Yellowcard
67'
63'
Event
Jakob Napoleon Romsaas → Antoine Bernier
1st Substitution
57'
Event
Lewin Blum
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
1ST-HALF
41'
Event
Yassine Titraoui
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
Event
Dennis Praet
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
39'

Match Commentary

90
Attempt Attempt
Rein Van Helden attempts a header but misses the shot.
87
Update Update
Gerard Vandeplas comes on for Xander Dierckx.
87
Update Update
Gerard Vandeplas is on, and Xander Dierckx is off.
86
Attempt Attempt
Farouck Adekami takes a left-footed shot, but it is blocked.
86
Attempt Attempt
Farouck Adekami takes a left-footed shot, but it is blocked.
86
Attempt Attempt
Penalty saved by Geoffry Hairemans.
86
Attempt Attempt
Geoffry Hairemans takes a left-footed shot that hits the post.
86
Attempt Attempt
Geoffry Hairemans attempts a header but misses the shot.
85
Update Update
VAR decision confirms a penalty awarded to Anthony Valencia.
82
Attempt Attempt
Aurelien Scheidler's right-footed shot is blocked.
77
Update Update
Geoffry Hairemans replaces Yuto Tsunashima.
74
Update Update
Patrick Pflucke is on, and Parfait Guiagon is off.
74
Update Update
Yassine Khalifi replaces Yacine Titraoui.
71
Update Update
Farouck Adekami comes on for Eran Tuypens.
70
Update Update
Mauricio Benitez is on, and Dennis Praet is off.
67
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Vincent Janssen receives a yellow card.
66
Attempt Attempt
Etienne Camara takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
65
Attempt Attempt
Jakob Napoleon Romsaas takes a shot with his right foot, but it's blocked.
63
Attempt Attempt
Eran Tuypens takes a header shot but misses.
63
Update Update
Jakob Napoleon Romsaas replaces Antoine Bernier.
60
Attempt Attempt
Xander Dierckx attempts a header but misses the shot.
57
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Lewin Blum receives a yellow card.
56
Attempt Attempt
Christopher Scott takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
56
Attempt Attempt
Dennis Praet takes a right-footed shot but misses.
56
Attempt Attempt
Xander Dierckx has a left-footed shot, but it is blocked.
56
Attempt Attempt
Christopher Scott takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
56
Attempt Attempt
Gyrano Kerk attempts a header but misses the shot.
55
Attempt Attempt
Vincent Janssen's right-footed shot is blocked.
53
Update Update
Aurelien Scheidler's header attempt misses the target.
45
Attempt Attempt
Aurelien Scheidler's right-footed shot is blocked.
44
Attempt Attempt
Vincent Janssen takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
41
Attempt Attempt
Yacine Titraoui scores with a right-footed shot.
32
Attempt Attempt
Christopher Scott takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
31
Attempt Attempt
Antoine Bernier takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
24
Attempt Attempt
Parfait Guiagon takes a right-footed shot but misses.
23
Attempt Attempt
Mardochee Nzita takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
22
Attempt Attempt
Kevin Van Den Kerkhof's left-footed shot is blocked.
18
Update Update
Rein Van Helden attempts a header but misses the target.
16
Attempt Attempt
Kevin Van Den Kerkhof attempts a header but misses the shot.
14
Attempt Attempt
Daam Foulon takes a left-footed shot but misses.
11
Attempt Attempt
Gyrano Kerk takes a right-footed shot but misses.
1
Attempt Attempt
Anthony Valencia takes a left-footed shot, but it is blocked.

CONCLUSION

Sporting Charleroi's 0-1 win at Antwerp validates their stronger pre-match status, overcoming 45% possession with superior finishing in the first half. Antwerp's 55% ball control yielded no goals, highlighting conversion issues in a game lacking xG insights for nuance. The significant 63.4% deviation and market alignment reflect Charleroi's efficiency edge without red card influences or tactical shifts. This result bolsters Charleroi's campaign momentum while exposing Antwerp's need for sharper attacking threat, setting up intriguing future fixtures in the league.

Antwerp vs Sporting Charleroi preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

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Author

Alf Indseth

Alf Indseth writes football-focused analysis that looks beyond match results to explore form, value, and market context.