Akhmat Grozny vs Dynamo Makhachkala Prediction, Preview and Stats

Russia flag 2025/2026 Premier League, Russia
Akhmat Arena Sun, 10 May - 2:15 PM
Premier League
Akhmat Grozny AKH
1 – 1
Dynamo Makhachkala Dynamo Makhachkala
Full Time Sun, 10 May 2:15 PM
Round 29 Regular Season
Galymzhan Kenzhebek - 83'
Goal
|
Goal
Mohamed Azzi - 38'

CONTEXT

Akhmat Grozny welcomed Dynamo Makhachkala to Grozny for a Russian Premier League clash that concluded in a 1-1 draw, defying pre-match expectations where the hosts were favored. Dynamo struck first, leading 0-1 at halftime after a clinical finish exposed Akhmat's early defensive lapses. The home side, holding 53% possession throughout, mounted a comeback in the second half, equalizing through determined pressing and a well-taken goal. Despite their dominance in territory and shots, Akhmat failed to secure victory, resulting in a significant structural deviation. No red cards disrupted play, allowing both teams to maintain their tactical shapes. Dynamo's resilience on the counter and solid organization earned them a hard-fought point away from home, while Akhmat rued missed chances in a balanced encounter that highlighted second-half adjustments without altering the outcome.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Akhmat Grozny saw a significant 100% structural deviation as the favored team ended in a draw.
  • Efficiency shift: Team efficiencies stayed in line with pre-match projections.
  • xG alignment: xG data unavailable prevented assessment of outcome alignment.
  • Market alignment: Final draw aligned fully with pre-match market expectations.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations unmeasurable due to absent data.
  • Event impact: No key events or adjustments notably influenced the match flow.
  • Red card distortion: Zero red cards ensured no distortion to game dynamics.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

S. Ivanov

Russia 25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

A. Obrazko

1st Assistant

Russia

V. Petrosyan

2nd Assistant

Russia

V. Shamara

4th Official

Russia

League averages

Premier League Based on last 100 matches

Fouls / match 24.63
Yellow cards / match 3.49
Red cards / match 0.22
Penalties / match 0.61
Akhmat Grozny S. Cherchesov
S. Cherchesov
VS
Dynamo Makhachkala V. Evseev
V. Evseev
1.46
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
0.77
0.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
FK Nizjni Novgorod Rank: 52 W
Zenit Rank: 79 L
Baltika Kaliningrad Rank: 66 D
Spartak Moskva Rank: 72 L
Krylya Sovetov Rank: 57 D
Krasnodar Rank: 78 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Rostov Rank: 59 L
Krasnodar Rank: 77 L
Akron Rank: 54 D
Zenit Rank: 80 L
Lokomotiv Moskva Rank: 70 D
Baltika Kaliningrad Rank: 64 D
0
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 1 - 2
2

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Akhmat Grozny
0%
Draw
0%
Away Dynamo Makhachkala
0%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
59.96
56.72
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Akhmat Grozny
Dynamo Makhachkala
Power Score
59.96
56.72
League Position
9
14
Global Rank
490
596

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Akhmat Grozny — Opponent-weighted form score
Dynamo Makhachkala — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Akhmat Grozny Dynamo Makhachkala

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Akhmat Grozny

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Dynamo Makhachkala

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Akhmat Grozny ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Dynamo Makhachkala
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
23.96
15.21
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
15.21
23.96
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Akhmat Grozny +1.01 Efficiency Index
vs
Dynamo Makhachkala -1.01 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Akhmat Grozny
Dynamo Makhachkala
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Akhmat Grozny ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Dynamo Makhachkala
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Akhmat Grozny Dynamo Makhachkala
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Akhmat Grozny Dynamo Makhachkala
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Akhmat Grozny
Dynamo Makhachkala
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Akhmat Grozny
vs
Dynamo Makhachkala
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Akhmat Grozny Dynamo Makhachkala
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Akhmat Grozny 0.19
Dynamo Makhachkala 0.12
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Akhmat Grozny Dynamo Makhachkala
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Akhmat Grozny 0.02
Dynamo Makhachkala 0.02
Akhmat Grozny
Dynamo Makhachkala
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • AKH had peak pressure around 36'.
  • Dynamo Makhachkala started the game with stronger pressure.
AKH Pressure Dynamo Makhachkala Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: AKH reached the top pressure at 36' (55.15).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 3 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Akhmat Grozny AKH Home
3 matches
Dynamo Makhachkala Dynamo Makhachkala Away
Match Record
0
Wins
2
1
Draws
1
2
Losses
0
Goals
1
Goals Scored
3
3
Goals Conceded
1
-2
Goal Difference
+2

Data last updated: 2026-05-11T00:03:40+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 5-3-2
Pitch
G. Sheliya
Russia
88 G. Sheliya
M. Sidorov
Russia
81 M. Sidorov
O. Ndong
Senegal
90 O. Ndong
K. Cake
Albania
5 K. Cake
M. Bogosavac
Serbia
8 M. Bogosavac
M. Keliano
Substitution
Angola
42 M. Keliano
I. Silva Lima
Brazil
11 I. Silva Lima
M. Samorodov
Substitution
Kazakhstan
20 M. Samorodov
E. dos Santos Cacintura
Angola
17 E. dos Santos Cacintura
L. Sadulaev
Substitution
Russia
7 L. Sadulaev
M. Konaté
Ivory Coast
13 M. Konaté
Pitch
N. Karabashev
Russia
33 N. Karabashev
T. Sundukov
Russia
77 T. Sundukov
J. Tabidze
Georgia
5 J. Tabidze
M. Alibekov
Russia
99 M. Alibekov
A. Alarcón Mendoza
Colombia
24 A. Alarcón Mendoza
M. Azzi
Substitution
Algeria
22 M. Azzi
N. Glushkov
Russia
47 N. Glushkov
E. Moubarik
Substitution
Morocco
6 E. Moubarik
H. Eddine Mrezigue
Substitution
Algeria
16 H. Eddine Mrezigue
G. Agalarov
Substitution
Russia
25 G. Agalarov
R. Magomedov
Substitution
Russia
9 R. Magomedov

General Information

Date & Time :
May 10, 2026, 02:15 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Premier League, Russia · Round 29 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Akhmat Arena
Capacity :
30597
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Andrey Obrazko
Varantso Petrosyan
Vladimir Shamara
Sergey Ivanov

Statistics

Possession
AKH
50%
Dynamo Makhachkala
50%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 1
10 Shots 5
54 Dangerous attacks 43
53 Possession 47
4 Corners 6
20 Free kicks 11
2 Yellow Cards 0

Match Overview

25 Successful Dribbles Percentage 91
12 Dribble Attempts 11
24 Successful Headers 16
3 Successful Dribbles 10
25 Throwins 18
3 Goal Kicks 14
1 Assists 1
3 Substitutions 5
86 Ball Safe 95
2 Injuries 4
6 Goal Attempts 4

Attacking

109 Attacks 98

Possession

405 Passes 366
19 Successful Long Passes 26
35 Successful Long Passes Percentage 37
55 Long Passes 70
323 Successful Passes 273
80 Successful Passes Percentage 75

Defensive

3 Interceptions 10
7 Tackles 24
2 Saves 0
53 Duels Won 61

Build-up

18 Total Crosses 13
4 Accurate Crosses 2

Discipline

2 Offsides 1
12 Fouls 20

Lineup

Referee : Sergey Ivanov

Starting XI ▼

88
Giorgiy Shelia
Giorgiy Shelia Goalkeeper
5
Klisman Cake
Klisman Cake Defender
8
Miroslav Bogosavac
Miroslav Bogosavac Defender
81
Maksim Sidorov
Maksim Sidorov Defender
90
Ousmane N’Dong
Ousmane N’Dong Defender
7
Lechi Sadulaev
Lechi Sadulaev Midfielder
9
Brian Mansilla
Brian Mansilla
Attacker60'
11
Ismael Silva
Ismael Silva Midfielder
17
Egas Cacintura
Egas Cacintura Midfielder
20
Maksim Samorodov
Maksim Samorodov Midfielder
23
Galymzhan Kenzhebek
Galymzhan Kenzhebek
Midfielder60'
42
Kelliano
Kelliano Midfielder
4
Turpal-Ali Ibishev
Turpal-Ali Ibishev
Defender46'
13
Mohamed Konaté
Mohamed Konaté Attacker
Referee : Sergey Ivanov

Starting XI ▼

33
Nikita Karabashev
Nikita Karabashev Goalkeeper
5
Jemal Tabidze
Jemal Tabidze Defender
22
Mohamed Azzi
Mohamed Azzi Defender
13
Soslan Kagermazov
Soslan Kagermazov
Defender74'
24
Andrés Alarcón
Andrés Alarcón Defender
77
Temirkan Sundukov
Temirkan Sundukov Defender
99
Mutalip Alibekov
Mutalip Alibekov Defender
6
Mehdi Moubarik
Mehdi Moubarik Midfielder
21
Abdulpasha Dzhabrailov
Abdulpasha Dzhabrailov
Midfielder86'
16
Houssem Mrezigue
Houssem Mrezigue Midfielder
43
Ilyas Akhmedov
Ilyas Akhmedov
Defender87'
47
Nikita Glushkov
Nikita Glushkov Midfielder
9
Razhab Magomedov
Razhab Magomedov Attacker
10
Mohammadjavad Hosseinnejad
Mohammadjavad Hosseinnejad
Midfielder46'
25
Gamid Agalarov
Gamid Agalarov Attacker
11
Miro
Miro
Attacker69'

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Klisman Cake
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
90+1'
89'
Event
Vadim Evseev
Argument / 4th Yellowcard
87'
Event
Ilyas Akhmedov → Houssem Mrezigue
8th Substitution
86'
Event
Abdulpasha Dzhabrailov → Mehdi Moubarik
7th Substitution
Event
Galymzhan Kenzhebek
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
83'
74'
Event
Soslan Kagermazov → Mohamed Azzi
6th Substitution
69'
Event
Miro → Gamid Agalarov
5th Substitution
Event
Brian Mansilla
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
63'
Event
Galymzhan Kenzhebek → Maksim Samorodov
3rd Substitution
60'
Event
Brian Mansilla → Lechi Sadulaev
4th Substitution
60'
Event
Stanislav Cherchesov
Argument / 3rd Yellowcard
50'
Event
Turpal-Ali Ibishev → Kelliano
2nd Substitution
46'
46'
Event
Mohammadjavad Hosseinnejad → Razhab Magomedov
1st Substitution
1ST-HALF
38'
Event
Mohamed Azzi
Right foot shot / 1st Goal

Match Commentary

90
Attempt Attempt
Galymzhan Kenzhebek takes a right-footed shot but misses.
90
Attempt Attempt
Galymzhan Kenzhebek takes a right-footed shot but misses.
86
Update Update
Abdulpasha Dzhabrailov is on, and El Mehdi Moubarik is off.
83
Attempt Attempt
Galymzhan Kenzhebek scores with a right-footed shot.
76
Attempt Attempt
Houssem Mrezigue takes a left-footed shot, but it is saved.
74
Update Update
Soslan Kagermazov comes on for Mohamed Azzi.
73
Attempt Attempt
Braian Mansilla attempts a header but misses the shot.
72
Attempt Attempt
Galymzhan Kenzhebek takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
63
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Braian Mansilla receives a yellow card.
60
Update Update
Braian Mansilla comes on for Lechii Sadulaev.
60
Update Update
Galymzhan Kenzhebek is on, and Maksim Samorodov is off.
46
Update Update
Turpal-Ali Ibishev is on, and Manuel Keliano is off.
46
Update Update
Mohammadjavad Hosseinnejad comes on for Razhab Magomedov.
43
Attempt Attempt
Mohamed Konate attempts a header but misses the shot.
43
Update Update
Mohamed Konate's header is blocked.
40
Attempt Attempt
Ismael Silva Lima takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
38
Attempt Attempt
Shot! Mohamed Azzi scores with a right-footed shot.
36
Attempt Attempt
Egas dos Santos Cacintura takes a left-footed shot but misses.
30
Attempt Attempt
Maksim Samorodov takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
21
Attempt Attempt
Gamid Agalarov takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
9
Attempt Attempt
El Mehdi Moubarik takes a right-footed shot but misses.
3
Attempt Attempt
Temirkan Sundukov takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.

CONCLUSION

This 1-1 stalemate underscores Akhmat Grozny's frustration despite superior possession and status as the stronger outfit, as Dynamo's halftime lead held firm until a late reply. The visitors' defensive grit neutralized the hosts' pressure, turning potential defeat into a creditable draw. Without red cards or major incidents, the result reflects tactical discipline over dominance. Akhmat's second-half push fell short, exposing conversion issues, while Dynamo gained momentum from their early strike. Overall, the point suits Makhachkala's survival bid more, leaving Grozny to reflect on squandered control in a match defined by parity.

Akhmat Grozny vs Dynamo Makhachkala preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

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