Ajax vs FC Utrecht Prediction, Preview and Stats

Netherlands flag 2025/2026 Eredivisie, Netherlands
Johan Cruijff Arena Sun, 10 May - 2:45 PM
Eredivisie
Ajax AJA
Versus
FC Utrecht UTR
KICKOFF : Sun, 10 May - 2:45 PM
Round 33 Regular Season

CONTEXT

Ajax hosts FC Utrecht at the Johan Cruijff Arena in an Eredivisie regular season encounter during the 2025/2026 campaign. Boasting a superior power score of 76.52 to Utrecht's 71.14, Ajax enjoys a clear 5.4-point advantage, reinforced by their 4th-place standing compared to Utrecht's 8th. This structural edge positions Ajax as the stronger outfit overall. However, recent form tells a different story, with Utrecht slightly ahead at 25.89 versus Ajax's 23.11, suggesting momentum on the visitors' side. Lacking detailed efficiency, transition, and set-piece data due to unavailable xG metrics, analysis relies on broader indicators. Home advantage in the iconic venue could prove decisive for Ajax, who aim to extend their top-four push, while Utrecht seeks to capitalize on form to climb the table. Expect a competitive battle where power meets momentum.

TL;DR

  • Structural: Ajax holds a 5.4-point power advantage with 76.52 over FC Utrecht's 71.14.
  • Form: FC Utrecht edges Ajax in form scores, 25.89 to 23.11.
  • Squad: Ajax ranks 4th in the Eredivisie, ahead of 8th-placed FC Utrecht.
  • Efficiency: Efficiency data unavailable for both teams.
  • Transition: Transition metrics unavailable due to lack of detailed statistics.
  • Set pieces: Set piece xG data unavailable with low confidence and proxy usage.
  • xVariable: Advanced xG variables not available for attack or defense.
  • Market: Baseline split: Ajax 57.9% (Δ+0%) | Draw 22.2% (Δ+0%) | FC Utrecht 19.9% (Δ+0%).
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Jan 25 vs Team A
Feb 1 vs Team B
Feb 8 vs Team C
Ajax Ó. García Junyent
Ó. García Junyent
VS
FC Utrecht R. Jans
R. Jans
1.75
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.4
1.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
PSV Rank: 86 D
NAC Breda Rank: 55 W
Heracles Almelo Rank: 55 W
FC Twente Rank: 76 L
Feyenoord Rank: 76 D
Sparta Rotterdam Rank: 65 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2 i
Last 6 Opponents
NAC Breda Rank: 55 W
Excelsior Rank: 58 L
Telstar Rank: 62 W
PSV Rank: 86 L
Go Ahead Eagles Rank: 67 W
FC Twente Rank: 76 W
18
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
18 - 9 - 13
13
No sidelined player data available.

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Ajax
57.87%
Draw
22.19%
Away FC Utrecht
19.94%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
76.52
71.14
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Ajax
FC Utrecht
Power Score
76.52
71.14
League Position
4
8
Global Rank
92
180

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Ajax — Opponent-weighted form score
FC Utrecht — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Ajax FC Utrecht

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 40 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Ajax AJA Home
40 matches
FC Utrecht UTR Away
Match Record
18
Wins
13
9
Draws
9
13
Losses
18
Goals
68
Goals Scored
51
51
Goals Conceded
68
+17
Goal Difference
-17

Data last updated: 2026-05-06T01:06:35+00:00

STARTING XI - EXPECTED

Match Formation 4-3-3
Match Formation 4-3-3
Pitch
M. Paes
26 M. Paes
A. Gaaei
3 A. Gaaei
J. Šutalo
37 J. Šutalo
Y. Baas
15 Y. Baas
L. Rosa
2 L. Rosa
Y. Regeer
6 Y. Regeer
K. Itakura
4 K. Itakura
J. Mokio
24 J. Mokio
S. Berghuis
23 S. Berghuis
K. Dolberg
9 K. Dolberg
M. Godts
11 M. Godts
V. Barkas
1 V. Barkas
S. Elkarouani
16 S. Elkarouani
M. Eerdhuijzen
44 M. Eerdhuijzen
M. van der Hoorn
3 M. van der Hoorn
N. Vesterlund
23 N. Vesterlund
G. Zechiël
21 G. Zechiël
D. de Wit
20 D. de Wit
A. Engwanda
27 A. Engwanda
Y. Cathline
10 Y. Cathline
A. Stepanov
18 A. Stepanov
Ángel Galiot
77 Ángel Galiot

General Information

Date & Time :
May 10, 2026, 02:45 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Eredivisie, Netherlands · Round 33 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Johan Cruijff Arena
Capacity :
55885
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Jeroen Manschot
Mario Diks
Franca Overtoom
Erwin Blank

Expected Lineup

Referee : Jeroen Manschot

Starting XI ▼

26
Maarten Paes
Maarten Paes Goalkeeper
6.91
23
Steven Berghuis
Steven Berghuis Attacker
7.35
9
Kasper Dolberg
Kasper Dolberg Centre Forward
6.75
11
Mika Godts
Mika Godts Attacker
7.63
15
Youri Baas
Youri Baas Left Back
7.16
24
Jorthy Mokio
Jorthy Mokio Central Midfield
6.8
37
Josip Sutalo
Josip Sutalo Right Back
6.77
2
Lucas Rosa
Lucas Rosa Left Back
6.95
3
Anton Gaaei
Anton Gaaei Right Back
6.8
4
Ko Itakura
Ko Itakura Central Midfield
6.88
6
Youri Regeer
Youri Regeer Central Midfield
6.96
Referee : Jeroen Manschot

Starting XI ▼

1
Vasilios Barkas
Vasilios Barkas Goalkeeper
7.03
18
Artem Stepanov
Artem Stepanov Centre Forward
6.74
77
Ángel Alarcón
Ángel Alarcón Attacker
7.04
10
Yoann Cathline
Yoann Cathline Attacker
6.98
16
Souffian El Karouani
Souffian El Karouani Left Back
7.43
3
Mike van der Hoorn
Mike van der Hoorn Right Back
6.96
20
Dani de Wit
Dani de Wit Central Midfield
6.98
21
Gjivai Zechiël
Gjivai Zechiël Central Midfield
7.1
23
Niklas Vesterlund
Niklas Vesterlund Right Back
6.59
27
Alonzo Engwanda
Alonzo Engwanda Central Midfield
6.84
44
Mike Eerdhuijzen
Mike Eerdhuijzen Left Back
6.54

CONCLUSION

Ajax enters as favorites thanks to their higher power rating and home turf at Johan Cruijff Arena, where they can leverage structural superiority and league position. Yet FC Utrecht's better form score introduces uncertainty, potentially fueling an upset bid from 8th place. Without granular efficiency or set-piece insights, the focus shifts to Ajax's overall strength against Utrecht's momentum. The power gap suggests Ajax control, but form could tighten proceedings. A home win seems probable, extending Ajax's top-four aspirations while testing Utrecht's resolve.

Ajax vs FC Utrecht preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

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