Spartak Moskva vs Rubin Kazan Prediction, Preview and Stats

Russia flag 2025/2026 Premier League, Russia
Otkrytie Arena Mon, 11 May - 2:30 PM
Premier League
Spartak Moskva Spartak Moskva
2 Winner 1
Rubin Kazan RKA
Full Time Mon, 11 May 2:30 PM
Round 29 Regular Season
Pablo Solari - 60'
Christopher Wooh - 4'
Goal
|
Goal
Aleksandar Jukic - 90+3'

CONTEXT

Spartak Moskva claimed a 2-1 victory over Rubin Kazan, leveraging their status as the stronger team with commanding 66% possession against Rubin's 34%. Spartak took a 1-0 lead by halftime and extended it in the second half before Rubin scored a late reply. No red cards disrupted play, and no second-half adjustments were noted. The result featured a significant structural deviation of 100% attributed to Spartak Moskva, indicating a marked divergence from expected patterns. Efficiency remained in line with preseason assessments for both sides. Market expectations aligned perfectly with the outcome, as Spartak's win matched pre-match projections. Absence of xG data limits precise chance evaluation, but Spartak's territorial dominance clearly drove the scoreline. The game proceeded without major interruptions, underscoring Spartak's control.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Spartak Moskva showed a significant structural deviation of 100%.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency stayed in line with expectations for both teams.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment cannot be assessed due to unavailable data.
  • Market alignment: The match outcome fully aligned with market expectations.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations remain unevaluable without underlying data.
  • Event impact: No key events like red cards or adjustments altered dynamics.
  • Red card distortion: Zero red cards produced no distortion in match structure.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

I. Abrosimov

Russia
Fouls / match 0
Yellow cards / match 0
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

K. Bolshakov

2nd Assistant

Russia

I. Kaplenkov

4th Official

Russia

A. Lunev

1st Assistant

Russia

League averages

Premier League Based on last 100 matches

Fouls / match 25.81
Yellow cards / match 3.7
Red cards / match 0.23
Penalties / match 0.61
Spartak Moskva J. Carcedo Mardones
J. Carcedo Mardones
VS
Rubin Kazan F. Cebrián
F. Cebrián
1.77
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.69
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Krylya Sovetov Rank: 57 L
FK Nizjni Novgorod Rank: 51 W
Krasnodar Rank: 76 L
Akhmat Grozny Rank: 59 W
Rostov Rank: 61 D
Lokomotiv Moskva Rank: 71 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2 i
Last 6 Opponents
Baltika Kaliningrad Rank: 65 W
CSKA Moskva Rank: 70 D
Dinamo Moskva Rank: 70 W
Akron Rank: 53 D
Orenburg Rank: 54 D
Sochi Rank: 53 W
21
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
21 - 11 - 11
11

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Spartak Moskva
0%
Draw
0%
Away Rubin Kazan
0%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
73.18
63.92
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Spartak Moskva
Rubin Kazan
Power Score
73.18
63.92
League Position
4
8
Global Rank
142
373

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Spartak Moskva — Opponent-weighted form score
Rubin Kazan — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Spartak Moskva Rubin Kazan

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Spartak Moskva

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Rubin Kazan

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Spartak Moskva ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Rubin Kazan
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
27.95
30.44
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
30.44
27.95
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Spartak Moskva -0.27 Efficiency Index
vs
Rubin Kazan +0.27 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Spartak Moskva
Rubin Kazan
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Spartak Moskva ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Rubin Kazan
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Spartak Moskva Rubin Kazan
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Spartak Moskva Rubin Kazan
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Spartak Moskva
Rubin Kazan
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Spartak Moskva
vs
Rubin Kazan
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Spartak Moskva Rubin Kazan
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Spartak Moskva 0.22
Rubin Kazan 0.33
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Spartak Moskva Rubin Kazan
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Spartak Moskva 0.04
Rubin Kazan 0.03
Spartak Moskva
Rubin Kazan
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • Spartak Moskva had peak pressure around 46'.
  • Spartak Moskva started the game with stronger pressure.
Spartak Moskva Pressure RKA Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: Spartak Moskva reached the top pressure at 46' (76.80).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 43 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Spartak Moskva Spartak Moskva Home
43 matches
Rubin Kazan RKA Away
Match Record
21
Wins
11
11
Draws
11
11
Losses
21
Goals
56
Goals Scored
37
37
Goals Conceded
56
+19
Goal Difference
-19

Data last updated: 2026-05-12T00:02:26+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 3-4-3
Pitch
A. Maximenko
Russia
98 A. Maximenko
D. Denisov
Russia
97 D. Denisov
C. Wooh
France
3 C. Wooh
A. Djiku
Ghana
4 A. Djiku
R. Zobnin
Substitution
Russia
47 R. Zobnin
R. Litvinov
Substitution
Russia
68 R. Litvinov
N. Umyarov
Russia
18 N. Umyarov
P. Solari
Substitution
Argentina
7 P. Solari
E. Barco
Argentina
5 E. Barco
J. Costa Martins
Substitution
Brazil
10 J. Costa Martins
M. Ugalde
Substitution
Costa Rica
9 M. Ugalde
Pitch
E. Staver
Russia
38 E. Staver
E. Teslenko
Russia
2 E. Teslenko
I. Vujačić
Montenegro
5 I. Vujačić
D. Maldonado Munguía
Substitution
Honduras
3 D. Maldonado Munguía
K. Nizhegorodov
Russia
4 K. Nizhegorodov
V. Hodža
Croatia
22 V. Hodža
I. Saavedra Pino
Substitution
Chile
7 I. Saavedra Pino
A. Arroyo Córdoba
Substitution
Colombia
12 A. Arroyo Córdoba
R. Bezrukov
Substitution
Russia
23 R. Bezrukov
M. Daku
Albania
10 M. Daku
N. Gripshi
Substitution
Albania
11 N. Gripshi

General Information

Date & Time :
May 11, 2026, 02:30 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Premier League, Russia · Round 29 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Otkrytie Arena
Capacity :
14274
Pitch Surface :
N/A
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Kirill Bolshakov
Igor Kaplenkov
Ivan Abrosimov
Aleksey Lunev

Statistics

Possession
Spartak Moskva
62%
RKA
38%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 1
4 Big Chances Created 1
2 Shots 4
69 Dangerous attacks 27
66 Possession 34
6 Corners 3
10 Free kicks 16
2 Yellow Cards 5

Match Overview

2 Assists 1
14 Successful Headers 9
4 Goal Kicks 10
17 Throwins 16
16 Dribble Attempts 7
3 Successful Dribbles 5
19 Successful Dribbles Percentage 71
0 Hit Woodwork 1
79 Ball Safe 73
5 Substitutions 5
0 Injuries 2
12 Goal Attempts 4

Attacking

103 Attacks 56
3 Big Chances Missed 0

Possession

539 Successful Passes 237
37 Long Passes 40
20 Successful Long Passes 18
622 Passes 319
87 Successful Passes Percentage 74
54 Successful Long Passes Percentage 45

Defensive

15 Interceptions 13
35 Duels Won 46
1 Saves 4
9 Tackles 14

Build-up

23 Total Crosses 8
6 Accurate Crosses 5

Discipline

4 Offsides 0
16 Fouls 10

Lineup

Referee : Ivan Abrosimov

Starting XI ▼

98
Aleksandr Maksimenko
Aleksandr Maksimenko Goalkeeper
3
Christopher Wooh
Christopher Wooh Defender
4
Alexander Djiku
Alexander Djiku Defender
47
Roman Zobnin
Roman Zobnin Defender
24
Nikita Massalyga
Nikita Massalyga
Midfielder87'
97
Daniil Denisov
Daniil Denisov Defender
5
Esequiel Barco
Esequiel Barco Midfielder
7
Pablo Solari
Pablo Solari Midfielder
83
Gedson Fernandes
Gedson Fernandes
Midfielder65'
10
Marquinhos
Marquinhos Midfielder
27
Igor Dmitriev
Igor Dmitriev
Midfielder75'
18
Nail Umyarov
Nail Umyarov Midfielder
68
Ruslan Litvinov
Ruslan Litvinov Midfielder
35
Christopher Martins
Christopher Martins
Midfielder75'
9
Manfred Ugalde
Manfred Ugalde Attacker
11
Levi García
Levi García
Attacker87'
Referee : Ivan Abrosimov

Starting XI ▼

38
Evgeniy Staver
Evgeniy Staver Goalkeeper
2
Egor Teslenko
Egor Teslenko Defender
3
Denil Maldonado
Denil Maldonado Defender
98
Nikita Lobov
Nikita Lobov
Defender46'
5
Igor Vujacic
Igor Vujacic Defender
4
Konstantin Nizhegorodov
Konstantin Nizhegorodov Midfielder
7
Ignacio Saavedra
Ignacio Saavedra Midfielder
8
Bogdan Jocic
Bogdan Jocic
Midfielder65'
12
Anderson Arroyo
Anderson Arroyo Midfielder
70
Dmitriy Kabutov
Dmitriy Kabutov
Defender21'
22
Veldin Hodza
Veldin Hodza Midfielder
10
Mirlind Daku
Mirlind Daku Attacker
11
Nazmi Gripshi
Nazmi Gripshi Attacker
77
Aleksandar Jukic
Aleksandar Jukic
Midfielder65'
23
Ruslan Bezrukov
Ruslan Bezrukov Attacker
43
Jacques Siwe
Jacques Siwe
Attacker79'

Events

2ND-HALF
90+3'
Event
Aleksandar Jukic
Right foot shot / 3rd Goal
90+1'
Event
Veldin Hodza
Foul / 7th Yellowcard
Event
Levi García → Manfred Ugalde
9th Substitution
87'
Event
Nikita Massalyga → Roman Zobnin
10th Substitution
87'
85'
Event
Bogdan Jocic
Foul / 6th Yellowcard
Event
Manfred Ugalde
Argument / 4th Yellowcard
84'
84'
Event
Igor Vujacic
Argument / 5th Yellowcard
79'
Event
Jacques Siwe → Ruslan Bezrukov
8th Substitution
Event
Igor Dmitriev → Marquinhos
6th Substitution
75'
Event
Christopher Martins → Ruslan Litvinov
7th Substitution
75'
Event
Gedson Fernandes → Pablo Solari
3rd Substitution
65'
65'
Event
Bogdan Jocic → Ignacio Saavedra
4th Substitution
65'
Event
Aleksandar Jukic → Nazmi Gripshi
5th Substitution
63'
Event
Ignacio Saavedra
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
Event
Pablo Solari
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
60'
Event
Marquinhos
Argument / 2nd Yellowcard
53'
46'
Event
Nikita Lobov → Denil Maldonado
2nd Substitution
1ST-HALF
34'
Event
Denil Maldonado
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
21'
Event
Dmitriy Kabutov → Anderson Arroyo
1st Substitution
Event
Christopher Wooh
Left foot shot / 1st Goal
4'

Match Commentary

90
Attempt Attempt
Jacques Siwe attempts a header but misses the shot.
90
Attempt Attempt
Aleksandar Jukic scores with a right-footed shot.
90
Attempt Attempt
Levi Garcia's left-footed shot is blocked.
90
Attempt Attempt
Shot on goal! Aleksandar Jukic takes a right-footed shot.
90
Attempt Attempt
Aleksandar Jukic takes a shot with his right foot and scores.
87
Update Update
Levi Garcia comes on for Manfred Alonso Ugalde Arce.
87
Update Update
Nikita Massalyga comes on for Roman Zobnin.
76
Attempt Attempt
Egor Teslenko takes a right-footed shot but misses.
75
Update Update
Christopher Martins Pereira is on, and Ruslan Litvinov is off.
75
Substitution Substitution
Christopher Martins Pereira is substituted for Ruslan Litvinov.
65
Update Update
Aleksandar Jukic comes on for Nazmi Gripshi.
65
Update Update
Gedson Carvalho Fernandes replaces Pablo Solari.
65
Update Update
Bogdan Jocic comes on for Ignacio Saavedra.
60
Attempt Attempt
Pablo Solari scores with a right-footed shot.
53
Attempt Attempt
Ruslan Bezrukov takes a right-footed shot, but it hits the post.
52
Update Update
Mirlind Daku's header is blocked.
51
Attempt Attempt
Ignacio Saavedra's right-footed shot is blocked.
51
Attempt Attempt
Ignacio Saavedra takes a right-footed shot but misses.
51
Attempt Attempt
Nazmi Gripshi's right-footed shot is blocked.
49
Attempt Attempt
Pablo Solari takes a left-footed shot but misses.
46
Substitution Substitution
Nikita Lobov is substituted for Denil Maldonado.
45
Attempt Attempt
Jose Marcos Costa Martins takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
43
Attempt Attempt
Nail Umyarov takes a left-footed shot but misses.
39
Attempt Attempt
Jose Marcos Costa Martins takes a right-footed shot but misses.
36
Attempt Attempt
Manfred Alonso Ugalde Arce takes a shot with his head, but it is saved.
34
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Denil Maldonado receives a yellow card.
31
Attempt Attempt
Ezequiel Barco takes a left-footed shot but misses.
28
Attempt Attempt
Jose Marcos Costa Martins takes a right-footed shot but misses.
26
Attempt Attempt
Dmitry Kabutov's left-footed shot is blocked.
23
Attempt Attempt
Egor Teslenko's header is saved.
21
Update Update
Dmitry Kabutov is on, and Anderson Arroyo is off.
14
Attempt Attempt
Manfred Alonso Ugalde Arce takes a left-footed shot but misses.
6
Attempt Attempt
Jose Marcos Costa Martins takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
4
Attempt Attempt
Christopher Wooh takes a left-footed shot and scores.

CONCLUSION

Spartak Moskva's 2-1 triumph over Rubin Kazan reflected their possession dominance and effective game management, leading 1-0 at halftime. The significant 100% structural deviation highlights Spartak's outperformance against baselines, while efficiency consistency and market alignment affirm a predictable result. Without xG metrics, chance conversion analysis relies on score progression and control stats. No red cards or events ensured undistorted flow, allowing Spartak to convert superiority into points. Rubin's goal exposed minor vulnerability, but Spartak's control prevailed. This outcome strengthens Spartak's standing, demonstrating reliable execution under pressure.

Spartak Moskva vs Rubin Kazan preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

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Alf Indseth

Alf Indseth writes football-focused analysis that looks beyond match results to explore form, value, and market context.