Napoli vs Bologna Prediction, Preview and Stats

Italy flag 2025/2026 Serie A, Italy
Stadio Diego Armando Maradona Mon, 11 May - 6:45 PM
Serie A
Napoli NAP
Versus
Bologna BOL
KICKOFF : Mon, 11 May - 6:45 PM
Round 36 Regular Season

CONTEXT

Napoli hosts Bologna at the Stadio Diego Armando Maradona in a pivotal Serie A regular season matchup from the 2025/2026 campaign. The Partenopei command a clear edge, holding second place in the standings while Bologna languishes in ninth. Napoli's power score of 86.1 significantly outpaces Bologna's 78.02, translating to an 8.1-point advantage that underscores their structural superiority. Form metrics further tilt the scales, with Napoli's 26.44 rating nearly doubling Bologna's modest 11.44. Playing at home, Napoli seeks to leverage this momentum against a Bologna side striving to climb the table. Absent recent outing details, focus shifts to overall capabilities and league positions. Set piece and efficiency data remain unavailable, heightening intrigue around open-play dynamics. This fixture promises intensity as Napoli aims to extend its dominance.

TL;DR

  • Structural: Napoli possesses a structural edge with 86.1 power score over Bologna's 78.02 and second-place standing versus ninth.
  • Form: Napoli's form score stands at 26.44, surpassing Bologna's 11.44.
  • Squad: Napoli's higher league position at second reflects stronger squad depth compared to Bologna's ninth place.
  • Efficiency: Efficiency data is unavailable for this matchup.
  • Transition: Transition metrics are not detailed in available statistics.
  • Set pieces: Set piece performance lacks xG data due to add-on not being enabled.
  • xVariable: xG variables for set pieces remain unavailable with low confidence proxies used.
  • Market: Baseline split: Napoli 60.8% (Δ+0%) | Draw 23.1% (Δ+0%) | Bologna 16.1% (Δ+0%).
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Jan 25 vs Team A
Feb 1 vs Team B
Feb 8 vs Team C
Napoli A. Conte
A. Conte
VS
Bologna V. Italiano
V. Italiano
2
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.17
1.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Como Rank: 83 D
Cremonese Rank: 67 W
Lazio Rank: 79 L
Parma Rank: 73 D
AC Milan Rank: 84 W
Cagliari Rank: 71 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Cagliari Rank: 71 D
Roma Rank: 83 L
Juventus Rank: 85 L
Lecce Rank: 69 W
Cremonese Rank: 67 W
Lazio Rank: 82 L
21
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
21 - 7 - 9
9
No sidelined player data available.

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Napoli
60.8%
Draw
23.07%
Away Bologna
16.13%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
86.1
78.02
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Napoli
Bologna
Power Score
86.1
78.02
League Position
2
9
Global Rank
29
81

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Napoli — Opponent-weighted form score
Bologna — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Napoli Bologna

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 37 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Napoli NAP Home
37 matches
Bologna BOL Away
Match Record
21
Wins
9
7
Draws
7
9
Losses
21
Goals
78
Goals Scored
42
42
Goals Conceded
78
+36
Goal Difference
-36

Data last updated: 2026-05-07T00:51:56+00:00

STARTING XI - EXPECTED

Pitch
V. Milinković Savić
32 V. Milinković Savić
S. Beukema
31 S. Beukema
A. Rrahmani
13 A. Rrahmani
A. Buongiorno
4 A. Buongiorno
M. Politano
21 M. Politano
S. McTominay
8 S. McTominay
S. Lobotka
68 S. Lobotka
M. Gutiérrez Ortega
3 M. Gutiérrez Ortega
K. De Bruyne
11 K. De Bruyne
R. Højlund
19 R. Højlund
A. de Almeida Santos
27 A. de Almeida Santos
F. Ravaglia
13 F. Ravaglia
J. Miranda González
33 J. Miranda González
J. Lucumí Bonilla
26 J. Lucumí Bonilla
E. Fauske Helland
5 E. Fauske Helland
N. Zortea
20 N. Zortea
N. Moro
6 N. Moro
R. Freuler
8 R. Freuler
S. Sohm
23 S. Sohm
J. Rowe
11 J. Rowe
S. Castro
9 S. Castro
F. Bernardeschi
10 F. Bernardeschi

General Information

Date & Time :
May 11, 2026, 06:45 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Serie A, Italy · Round 36 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Stadio Diego Armando Maradona
Capacity :
54726
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Marco Piccinini
Valerio Colarossi
Daisuke Emanuele Yoshikawa
Mario Perri

Expected Lineup

Referee : Marco Piccinini

Starting XI ▼

32
Vanja Milinković-Savić
Vanja Milinković-Savić Goalkeeper
6.86
3
Miguel Gutiérrez
Miguel Gutiérrez Midfielder
6.81
21
Matteo Politano
Matteo Politano Midfielder
6.94
27
Alisson Santos
Alisson Santos Attacker
7.17
11
Kevin De Bruyne
Kevin De Bruyne Attacker
7.29
19
Rasmus Højlund
Rasmus Højlund Centre Forward
6.85
31
Sam Beukema
Sam Beukema Right Back
6.84
68
Stanislav Lobotka
Stanislav Lobotka Central Midfield
6.87
4
Alessandro Buongiorno
Alessandro Buongiorno Left Back
6.78
13
Amir Rrahmani
Amir Rrahmani Centre Back
7.03
8
Scott McTominay
Scott McTominay Central Midfield
7.16
Referee : Marco Piccinini

Starting XI ▼

13
Federico Ravaglia
Federico Ravaglia Goalkeeper
6.79
9
Santiago Castro
Santiago Castro Centre Forward
6.87
10
Federico Bernardeschi
Federico Bernardeschi Attacker
6.86
11
Jonathan Rowe
Jonathan Rowe Attacker
6.81
23
Simon Sohm
Simon Sohm Central Midfield
6.69
26
Jhon Lucumí
Jhon Lucumí Left Back
6.85
33
Juan Miranda
Juan Miranda Left Back
7.12
5
Eivind Helland
Eivind Helland Right Back
7.09
6
Nikola Moro
Nikola Moro Central Midfield
7.03
8
Remo Freuler
Remo Freuler Central Midfield
6.8
20
Nadir Zortea
Nadir Zortea Right Back
6.65

CONCLUSION

Napoli enters as the clear favorite, buoyed by superior power ratings, form, and home advantage at the Stadio Diego Armando Maradona. Bologna faces an uphill battle, needing to disrupt Napoli's rhythm to secure points from ninth place. Without detailed efficiency or set piece insights, expect emphasis on structural strengths and recent momentum. Napoli's 8.1-point edge suggests control, yet Bologna's resilience could spark surprises. Watch for Napoli to dictate tempo early, capitalizing on their league standing. This encounter highlights Serie A's competitive depth in 2025/2026.

Napoli vs Bologna preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

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