FC Köln vs Heidenheim Prediction, Preview and Stats

Germany flag 2025/2026 Bundesliga, Germany
RheinEnergieStadion Sun, 10 May - 3:30 PM
Bundesliga
FC Köln KOE
Versus
Heidenheim HDH
KICKOFF : Sun, 10 May - 3:30 PM
Round 33 Regular Season

CONTEXT

FC Köln welcome Heidenheim to RheinEnergieStadion for a crucial Bundesliga regular season clash in 2025/2026. Köln sit 14th in the table, four places above bottom-of-the-standings Heidenheim at 18th, but power ratings tell a different story with Heidenheim boasting 72.75 to Köln's 62.97, a clear 9.8-point advantage marking them as the stronger team overall. Recent form reinforces this edge, Heidenheim's 20.33 score outpacing Köln's 13.44. Home advantage at RheinEnergieStadion could level the playing field for Köln, who need points to climb away from mid-table mediocrity, while Heidenheim desperately seek a spark to ignite their survival bid. Set-piece metrics remain unavailable due to low-confidence proxy data, leaving questions over dead-ball threats. Efficiency and transition play lack detailed insights, setting up a tactical battle where raw power meets home resilience.

TL;DR

  • Structural: Heidenheim possesses a 9.8-point power advantage over FC Köln with a 72.75 rating to 62.97.
  • Form: Heidenheim's form score of 20.33 surpasses FC Köln's 13.44.
  • Squad: FC Köln occupy 14th place, four spots above Heidenheim in 18th.
  • Efficiency: No efficiency data available for either team.
  • Transition: Transition play data unavailable in current analysis.
  • Set pieces: Set-piece metrics unavailable due to low-confidence proxy usage.
  • xVariable: xG data not available for set pieces on both sides.
  • Market: Projection split: FC Köln 50.3% (Δ+0%) | Draw 23.3% (Δ+0%) | Heidenheim 26.4% (Δ+0%).
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Jan 25 vs Team A
Feb 1 vs Team B
Feb 8 vs Team C
FC Köln R. Wagner
R. Wagner
VS
Heidenheim F. Schmidt
F. Schmidt
0.82
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
0.82
1.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
FC Union Berlin Rank: 73 D
Bayer 04 Leverkusen Rank: 88 L
St. Pauli Rank: 72 D
Werder Bremen Rank: 76 W
Eintracht Frankfurt Rank: 80 D
Borussia Mönchengladbach Rank: 77 D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
FC Bayern München Rank: 100 D
St. Pauli Rank: 72 W
SC Freiburg Rank: 83 L
FC Union Berlin Rank: 74 W
Borussia Mönchengladbach Rank: 77 D
Bayer 04 Leverkusen Rank: 90 D
0
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 2 - 1
1
No sidelined player data available.

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home FC Köln
50.28%
Draw
23.3%
Away Heidenheim
26.42%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
62.97
72.75
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
FC Köln
Heidenheim
Power Score
62.97
72.75
League Position
14
18
Global Rank
106
152

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
FC Köln — Opponent-weighted form score
Heidenheim — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) FC Köln Heidenheim

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 3 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

FC Köln KOE Home
3 matches
Heidenheim HDH Away
Match Record
0
Wins
1
2
Draws
2
1
Losses
0
Goals
4
Goals Scored
7
7
Goals Conceded
4
-3
Goal Difference
+3

Data last updated: 2026-05-07T00:49:40+00:00

STARTING XI - EXPECTED

Match Formation 4-3-3
Match Formation 4-3-3
Pitch
M. Schwäbe
1 M. Schwäbe
S. Sebulonsen
28 S. Sebulonsen
J. Simpson-Pusey
22 J. Simpson-Pusey
C. Özkacar
39 C. Özkacar
K. Hansen
32 K. Hansen
J. Thielmann
29 J. Thielmann
J. Kamiński
16 J. Kamiński
T. Krauß
5 T. Krauß
G. Waldschmidt
7 G. Waldschmidt
M. Bülter
30 M. Bülter
S. El Mala
13 S. El Mala
D. Ramaj
41 D. Ramaj
H. Behrens
26 H. Behrens
J. Föhrenbach
19 J. Föhrenbach
P. Mainka
6 P. Mainka
M. Busch
2 M. Busch
N. Dorsch
30 N. Dorsch
J. Schöppner
3 J. Schöppner
A.Ibrahimovic
22 A.Ibrahimovic
E. Dinkci
8 E. Dinkci
B. Zivzivadze
11 B. Zivzivadze
M. Pieringer
18 M. Pieringer

General Information

Date & Time :
May 10, 2026, 03:30 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Bundesliga, Germany · Round 33 · Regular Season
Stadium :
RheinEnergieStadion
Capacity :
50000
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Sven Jablonski

Expected Lineup

Referee : Sven Jablonski

Starting XI ▼

1
Marvin Schwäbe
Marvin Schwäbe Goalkeeper
6.86
13
Said El Mala
Said El Mala Attacker
6.8
30
Marius Bülter
Marius Bülter Centre Forward
6.87
7
Luca Waldschmidt
Luca Waldschmidt Attacker
6.86
39
Cenk Özkacar
Cenk Özkacar Left Back
6.68
16
Jakub Kamiński
Jakub Kamiński Central Midfield
7.06
22
Jahmai Simpson-Pusey
Jahmai Simpson-Pusey Right Back
6.71
28
Sebastian Sebulonsen
Sebastian Sebulonsen Right Back
6.56
32
Kristoffer Lund
Kristoffer Lund Left Back
6.72
5
Tom Krauß
Tom Krauß Central Midfield
6.83
29
Jan Thielmann
Jan Thielmann Central Midfield
6.7
Referee : Sven Jablonski

Starting XI ▼

41
Diant Ramaj
Diant Ramaj Goalkeeper
6.8
8
Eren Dinkçi
Eren Dinkçi Attacker
6.82
11
Budu Zivzivadze
Budu Zivzivadze Centre Forward
6.72
18
Marvin Pieringer
Marvin Pieringer Attacker
6.81
2
Marnon Busch
Marnon Busch Right Back
6.81
3
Jan Schöppner
Jan Schöppner Central Midfield
6.53
19
Jonas Föhrenbach
Jonas Föhrenbach Left Back
6.61
22
Arijon Ibrahimovic
Arijon Ibrahimovic Central Midfield
6.88
26
Hennes Behrens
Hennes Behrens Left Back
6.88
30
Niklas Dorsch
Niklas Dorsch Central Midfield
6.76
6
Patrick Mainka
Patrick Mainka Right Back
6.98

CONCLUSION

Heidenheim's superior power and form metrics position them as analytical favorites despite their lowly league standing, but FC Köln's home turf at RheinEnergieStadion and higher table spot suggest a tightly contested affair. Without reliable set-piece or efficiency data, the focus shifts to open-play execution where Heidenheim's edge could shine through transitions. Köln must harness crowd energy to counter the visitors' strength, potentially grinding out a vital result in their push up the standings. Expect a gritty battle with goals likely deciding the outcome in this relegation skirmish.

FC Köln vs Heidenheim preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

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